Trumpers-Think-Political-Polls-Lie-Bob Davis Podcast 862

Republicans Hate Polls…Unless They Show Trump In The Lead

There’s so much bias these days on every media platform there’s no trust. A conversation with a republican friend lead to this podcast about whether polls lie. Find out more by listening to Trumpers-Think-Political-Polls-Lie-Bob Davis Podcast 862.

Who Did The Poll?

First of all when it comes to polling, the first question a republican will ask is, “Who did the poll”. Especially if it reflects poorly on the president. In addition their second favorite response is, “No One Called Me”. Gah!

What Poll Will You Accept?

In contrast I wonder, “What poll would you accept?“.

Polling Explained. Again.

It’s time again to explain polling and the potential for a republican win or loss in 2020.

No bias or predictions. Just the lay of the land.

Accept and Consider Information Challenging Your Position

Above all political true believers reject any poll that doesn’t show their guy winning. Even more, political analysis requires accepting and considering information that challenges you.

Approval Ratings 101

In Trumpers-Think-Political-Polls-Lie-Bob Davis Podcast 862 front and center are approval ratings and their ability to predict winners.

Past Elections

Moreover I’ll look at how you can use polls to make solid judgements. I’ll also talk about the history of past elections as a tool.

Polls Don’t Lie … The Media Lies

Not only do I reject the assertion the polls “lie”. When averaged they can be quite predictive.

Unfortunately the wholesale ignorance of polling in our media is especially relevant. For Example, while the polls in 2016 showed a close race for president, they never predicted a Clinton win.

Trump Struggles In The Battleground States

Finally at issue are tracking polls showing the president’s approval rating in battleground states plummeting. With manufacturing reportedly in recession in Wisconsin and Michigan, republican bosses are concerned. They should be. Trump has to win the battleground states to win a second term.

A Republican Siding With The UAW?

Perhaps it is for that reason that the president is rumored to want to intervene in a current GM strike, in favor of the UAW.

History And No Judgements

Therefore this podcast is valuable because it looks at chances for both a landslide as well as a tough race, without judgements and predictions. There’s a lot of information here about past presidential races, the history of polling and approval ratings. It might come in handy.

Sponsored by Reliafund Payment Processors and The Strategic Business Planners at Virtus Law

Trumpers-Think-Political-Polls-Lie-Bob Davis Podcast 862

Recession-Warning-Media-Confusion-Bob Davis Podcast 855

What Is All This Talk About Recession

These days it’s hard to tell who to believe. In many ways it’s the best economy ever. The best time to look for a job. An unprecedented economic boom. Why is everyone suddenly talking about a recession. Learn more in Recession-Warning-Media-Confusion-Bob Davis Podcast 855.

Not Making Predictions

First of all I am not here to tell you the economy is in the tank, or that it is booming.

Recession! Depression! Do I have Your Attention Now?

Truth is if you put the words recession, bust, or depression in an article you’re going to get people’s attention. In addition it doesn’t hurt to have a couple of historic drops in the stock market.

Now that I have your attention…Listen to Recession-Warning-Media-Confusion-Bob Davis Podcast 855.

Market Drops and Yield Curves Mean New Media Story Lines

It doesn’t matter if the markets recover from those drops.

What matters is now the media has a story line that predicts doom and destruction.

Fool’s Errand

Especially relevant is a lesson I learned a long time ago. It doesn’t matter how well informed a commentator might be. Making predictions about a force of nature like the world’s largest economy, is a fool’s errand.

Shallow Expansion, Debt and Slowing Growth

Even more, it is true our economy is growing and we are enjoying the longest economic expansion in memory. It’s also true it’s a shallow expansion and that growth just above the inflation line, isn’t really booming. Moreover, the expansion is getting pretty long in the tooth, as the say.

There Is A Season

In contrast like the seasons, economies operate on a cycle. Truth is anyone who predicts a recession will ultimately be right. Just like fall into winter recessions have a purpose. Economic contractions kill off the weak plants and animals and insects so the strong and grow again in the spring.

So when the yield curve inverts and the market drops it is certainly worth paying attention.

Seems like we’re missing something though. While the politicians and talking heads trade insults about who’s predictions are right, what are we thinking about?

Election Year Economics

In conclusion what plans to we the people have for the future economy of the United States. I sat down to do a podcast on the yield curve, claims about unemployment and recession predictions. I ended up with an essay on the pitfalls of talking economy in an election year, the ballyhoo on the current economy when the real questions aren’t even being asked. Let alone answered.

It’s 1950 In America…Coal Mines and Manufacturing, right?

Where are we going? What are we trying to accomplish? What kind of economy do we expect in the future. Is it really manufacturing jobs in Ohio and Coal Mines in West Virginia?

Sponsored by Ryan Plumbing and Heating of Saint Paul and Reliafund Payment Processors

Recession-Warning-Media-Confusion-Bob Davis Podcast 855

 

America’s Royalty-Bush-McCain Funerals-Bob Davis Podcast 784

Watching coverage of George HW Bush’s funeral I wondered when we turned our presidents into emperors. Learn more in America’s Royalty-Bush-McCain Funerals-Bob Davis Podcast 784.

Royal Weddings and State Funerals

Moreover I think state funerals in this country are going overboard. The State Funeral has become our answer to British Royal weddings and coronations.

No Pomp and No Titles of Nobility

Most noteworthy our constitution forbids granting of titles of nobility. Furthermore Alexander Hamilton called this the cornerstone of the Republic.

Why No Royalty In The US?

The real founders of this country did something that had never been done before. Our constitution guarantees the sovereignty of the people.

We The People Are The Nobility. Not The Politicians!

Moreover We the people ARE sovereign. Americans don’t need royalty.

In contrast, leave it to the media and the politicians to create a backdrop to make them seem like royalty.

Mediocre Politicians Should Not Be Hailed As National Heroes

These days a mediocre politician who dies can’t just be a guy who lived a full life and served his country. The loss is a national tragedy. The deceased was a “contemporary founding father“, or a “Hero”.  Hence, Bush and McCain funerals carry all the trappings of American Imperial Nobility.

Settling Scores At Funerals Is Bad Form

Even more offensive to me is the penchant some of these people have to settle political scores.

We are submitted to an endless stream of mind numbing stories about politicians who won’t talk to other politicians. Or reports on what clothing was worn and how it was received and so on.

The Media loves these royal funerals. Funerals mean big ratings.

Consequently politicians love funerals. Above all, they love the chance to be seen being seen. I’ve never met a politician who will miss a funeral.

A Macchiavellian World Without Principle

Truth is we’re lauding men and women who came up in a system which demands loyalty. The rules in politics are, never refuse a favor. Dance with the one who brung ye. Be a good boy. Good boys get rewarded. Long political careers sand away the rough edges and principles.

Is This What We Want?

Finally these days people complain a lot about politicians. The people say their representatives don’t listen and aren’t true to their word.

Here we have President Bush who famously pledged “Read My Lips, No New Taxes”, then raised taxes.

Then we have John McCain, who torpedoed the repeal of the Affordable Care Act. Remember, the republican majority, and the president ran on repeal legislation. This is heroism?

In conclusion I think we should remember, no matter how high the media holds them up, even presidents are chosen by the people. We delegate our sovereign authority to them. It’s not the other way around.

They are not Caesars.

Sponsored by Reliafund Payment Processors and Ryan Plumbing and Heating of Saint Paul

America’s Royalty-Bush-McCain Funerals-Bob Davis Podcast 784