Nomad-Dollars-Sense-Part2-Bob Davis Podcast 1102

Nomad Dollar Sense Part2

Firstly to focus on nomad dollars and sense in Part2 we’re going to be talking about leading economic indicators. Details in Nomad-Dollars-Sense-Part2-Bob Davis Podcast 1102. For references to details in this podcast listen to Part1 of this series and Bob Davis Podcast 1069.

Don’t Be Afraid Of Numbers

Secondly I use a few numbers.

Data Links With Charts

Therefore I’ll be posting a series of links to the data and charts for that data here.

Because we all know charts often make raw numbers a little clearer.

Not Just Reciting Numbers

However listeners and subscribers should know I’ve worked very hard to keep from just reciting numbers.

Context and Relevance

That is to say that where ever time permits in Nomad-Dollars-Sense-Part2-Bob Davis Podcast 1102 I’ll explain the context and relevance of an indicator.

Most importantly these leading economic indicators do not suggest a healthy economy.

Certainly things could change to the better…

Look Beyond Main Stream

But for the time being we would all be better served to look beyond the mainstream and main street story.

Leading Indicators

To begin with here’s a link to the conference board’s leading indicators.

Hours Worked

And hours worked by Americans nationally.

US GDP

Here’s the GDP numbers for the United States.

Consumer Price Index

And the Consumer Price Index.

Rents Headed Down

More importantly when it comes to rents, take a look at the Zillow Rent Index.

Especially relevant here is the fact that thousands of apartments are being built or coming on line at this time.

Moreover while that’s better for renters it’s not good news if you just bought an apartment building.

In addition this is a number which speaks to inflation overall which still shows shelter elevated.

Producer Price Index

Even more when it comes to inflation the PPI is a better forward indicator of economic growth than the CPI.

Inflation Disinflation Deflation

To sum up these are just some of the data that suggests we’re moving pretty quickly through the inflation, disinflation and deflation sequence.

CRE Loans

Again on consumer and commercial real estate here’s the commercial real estate loan application chart.

Commercial Real Estate Defaults

As an aside commercial real estate defaults are at a fourteen year high.

Mortgage Applications

And mortgage loan applications are down significantly.

Case Schiller

Finally the Case Schiller Home Price Index has been contracting for while and is now dropping. This is the first decline in several years.

Manufacturing

Equally important are the manufacturing numbers.

Oil

Correspondingly the commodity of oil is not following the rosy predictions of the International Oil Agency.

Corporate Profits Already In Recession

As an illustration the American Consumer is also not cooperating …corporate profits are in a recession.

Consumer Credit

Another bell weather is total consumer credit.

Consumer Credit Interest Rates Eating Us Alive

And average consumer credit rates are more than 23 percent these days.

Baltic Dry Is Dry

Furthermore when it comes to transportation costs the Baltic Dry index for the far east has deteriorated significantly.

Real GDP

Another indicator is Real GDP.

Money Supply

By all means the most important indicator and noteworthy metric is the actual money supply.

Again this is not a robustly healthy economy.

To be sure if it was I wouldn’t have to do this podcast series.

Economic Cycles Are Not Synchronized

All things considered Doctor Lacy Hunt’s views on the economic cycle are salient. Watch this video.

In conclusion there’s a lot of data to unpack.

Looking Closer

But looking closer might be the best thing we can do for ourselves right now.

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Nomad-Dollars-Sense-Part2-Bob Davis Podcast 1102

Podcast 376

Republicans Sound Like Democrats. And democrats sound like republicans. Updates to start the first week of June, 2015. Self described Democratic Socialist Senator Bernie Sanders was in Minneapolis this weekend telling a group of aging hippies that America isn’t a democracy and is becoming an oligarchy. Is this true? Meanwhile, in Delaware, republican candidate Carly Fiorina told a group of republicans big business and big government are crushing Americans. Are these candidates really from different ends of the political spectrum? Do any of them know how to fix the ailing US Economy and by extension, foreign policy and domestic policy problems created by the Obama, and yes Bush administrations? US economic performance in the first quarter of 2015 has been revised down to a .7 percent contraction, all blamed on winter, the weak dollar, the sun didn’t shine this weekend, and it rained, or the dog ate my homework, again. Meanwhile pollyanna’s tout labor department numbers as proof we’re on our way to ‘full employment’; So if we’re on our way to ‘full employment’ mister smartypants, how do we get a nearly one point contraction? For the record, the second quarter isn’t looking too rosy either, with the contraction in profits and manufacturing apparently continuing. Think it’s all those low-grade minimum wage part time jobs we’re ‘creating’? Oddly enough if you don’t read too much between the lines, crazy old Socialist Bernie Sanders, and some Republican candidates seem to be saying the same thing. The question is whether they know the policies currently in place — the kinds of policies Bernie Sanders wants to triple down on — have created inequality and poor economic growth? The republicans talk the talk but do they realize what a political ordeal it is to actually fix the economy and by extension, the country? Meanwhile, the Oligarch’s just keep on comin’. The LA Times published an expose this weekend on everyone’s favorite ‘Tony Stark’ (Elon Musk) who is actually a corporate welfare queen; The ‘electric car maker’, ‘rocket company’ owner and solar power ‘entrepreneur’ has taken nearly 5 billion dollars in subsidies from the Federal and various state governments. Yep, your smug hipster neighbor just bought a ‘Tesla’ because it’s great for the environment and got help from you, through your taxes while you hope the oil burning 96 Saturn you’re driving gets you to your part time job today. Finally, illegal immigrants get special help at Minneapolis and other Minnesota schools, while the children of citizens are pretty much on their own, despite the fact that two federal courts now have told the President his executive amnesty program is out of bounds. Yet it continues. This is a time for people to ask themselves what they expect the government to do, and whether the people running for office really understand what needs to be done, and if the answer is no, finding the path to the political revolution necessary to change it. Sponsored by X Government Cars