Toss Up House Elections 2018-Part 4-Podcast 756

As I do the last two podcasts in the toss up series at the Bob Davis Podcasts, more predictions of a democrat wave are most notable. Are these predictions true? We’ll find out in Toss Up House Elections 2018-Part 4-Podcast 756.

Shellacking

In addition to commentators AP reported this week that republican pollsters are telling top republicans they’re in for a shellacking in November.

As a mission of the Bob Davis Podcasts I have been looking at those elections deemed ‘toss ups’ by the experts.

Conventional Wisdom Is Right Until Wrong

Especially relevant is the idea behind the mission. No predictions. Non partisan. What is the situation in these key districts in the final weeks of the election. Readers, subscribers and listeners might be surprised to learn very few public polls exist. Conventional wisdom drives most of these predictions. I detail this for each toss up in Toss Up House Elections 2018-Part 4-Podcast 756.

Close Elections Don’t Always Mean Flips

From North Carolina to Texas in Toss Up House Elections 2018-Part 4-Podcast 756. Toss up races are simply close elections for whatever reason. Moreover most US House elections are in solid democrat or republican districts. This year some say there are more than 40 districts that will be close. Why they’re close is key.

Open Seats And Changing Geography

In some cases the district is an open seat because of retirements. In other cases, the contours of the district’s geography have changed. What was once a solid republican or democrat district is now supposedly more ‘balanced’.

Everyone Hates Congress…

Finally the real question in the 2018 midterms is whether people will vote their opinions of the president or local concerns. The old saying goes, everyone hates congress but not their congressman.

One Size Fits All Election?

In conclusion I spent a fair amount of time not only looking through the data for these districts but also watching some of the internet and TV ads for candidates. Sometimes it’s hard to tell the republican from the democrat. This is not a one size fits all election even though the media would have its viewers believe it is.

Once I finish this series in this podcast, and the next, I’ll do one more podcast with my analysis since there isn’t much time for that in these podcasts dealing with individual districts.

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Toss Up House Elections 2018-Part 4-Podcast 756

 

Toss Up House Elections 2018 Part 2-Bob Davis Podcast 754

Second in a series of podcasts detailing the so called toss up races in the 2018 midterm elections. Most noteworthy here are my observations about whether many of these elections are actually toss ups. Find out why I say this in Toss Up House Elections 2018 Part 2-Bob Davis Podcast 754.

Trump’s Future Hangs In The Balance

From Iowa, to Illinois. Kansas to Kentucky in this podcast you’ll find out why the media says the future of Donald Trump’s administration hangs in the balance. You’ll also find out whether the predicted ‘blue wave’ could be reality. Or not.

Details Without Partisanship

As I have said many times, one of the things our media loves to do these days is predict the future, The reason I am producing this series of podcasts is to give you the existing conditions in each of these districts without partisan comment or predictions. This series includes the Senate toss ups, and the Governor’s toss ups and part one of the house toss ups.

How Close Are They?

How close is the race in Illinois’ northwestern suburbs that make up the 6th district? What about all the predictions about 12th district which stretches from the working class Saint Louis suburbs across the river, all the way to the southern tip of the Land of Lincoln? Especially relevant here are predictions about Kentucky’s 6th district, which the president won by 17 points. When a candidate for president wins a state by over twenty points, is there a potential for backlash? Learn more in Toss Up House Elections 2018 Part 2-Bob Davis Podcast 754.

Telling The Voter What’s Going To Happen Before The Vote

These days it doesn’t matter whether you’re on network television or You Tube. If you have a national talk radio show or are a podcaster. Everyone wants to tell the voter what’s going to happen before it happens. If you listen to this series of my podcasts you’ll know the situation in these districts. You’ll know what races to watch on election night.

What IS The Situation?

Once the voters decides for themselves who their voting for on election night, they can sit back and watch the results knowing what races to look for. Why? Because someone looked at all the key races and without partisanship or rancor laid out what the situation is.

Fortune Tellers

Finally, many of these districts have no polling unless its done by partisan groups or political parties. Predictions are being made based on the 2016 election or because one party or another said they were ‘targeting’ that race. In conclusion our politics are too fluid for political fortune tellers to be accurate.

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Toss Up House Elections 2018 Part 2-Bob Davis Podcast 754

 

Toss Up House Elections 2018-Part 1-Bob Davis Podcast 753

Every two years the entire US House of Representatives has to run for election. The predictions of the prognosticators concerning these elections are most noteworthy. The sages say as many as 58 republican seats are in jeopardy. We’ll find out in a series of podcasts that examine each of these house races in detail. Toss Up House Elections 2018-Part 1-Bob Davis Podcast 753.

Predictions Are Dangerous

I hate predictions, Moreover I find while the media loves to ‘nationalize’ house and senate elections most of the time they turn on local issues not the national issues. One of the reasons predictions are often be wrong.

Especially relevant, so many of these races are considered toss ups.

Calibrating The Crystal Ball

There’s only way to determine whether men staring into crystal balls can predict the future. You have to examine each district one at a time.

In part one we look at several districts in California, Colorado, and Florida. More are on the way.

Travel Makes Great Political Analysis

I am happy to say I have been to many of these districts in Mobile Podcast Command. ‘Just passing through’ doesn’t give you some gift for the truth but it does help to visualize. Because I travel I have additional knowledge that is invaluable when it comes to understanding what’s going on in some of these elections.

Pivot Counties Are Well…Pivotal

Similarly it helps to have visited to some of the so called ‘Pivot Counties‘ and to have traveled through areas these guys on TV probably have not seen recently, if ever. It all adds up to the realization that all politics really is local.

New Political Environment?

Because I traveled in 2016 I was able to to realize early on something different was brewing. I think we’re still in a new political environment. All the more reason not to avoid the tarot card readers on TV. Listen to Toss Up House Elections 2018-Part 1-Bob Davis Podcast 753 instead.

No Predictions Just Information And a Baseline For You

While I won’t predict anything in 2018 I think it is fair to say we’re in a new environment politically in which almost anything can happen. Moreover whatever is happening may not show up in polls and primary election data.

Isn’t that what makes watching the outcome so much fun?

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Toss Up House Elections 2018-Part 1-Bob Davis Podcast 753

2018 Governors Toss Up Races-Polls-Bob Davis Podcast 752

Most people these days don’t dial into elections until after Labor Day. I’m doing a series of podcasts to get you updated on all the so called ‘toss up’ races. Learn more about the Governor’s races in 2018 Governors Toss Up Races-Polls-Bob Davis Podcast 752.

Old Saws Predict Races?

Moreover pundits and statisticians are hell bent for leather to tell you who’s going to win every race. Most noteworthy are the ‘old saws’ of politics. Predictions based on truisms and sayings.

You’re Right Until You’re Wrong

Maybe these old ways of predicting outcomes combined with new data are right. My experience is, they’re right until they’re wrong. I’ll explain in 2018 Governors Toss Up Races-Polls-Bob Davis Podcast 752.

Let The People Decide

Also I believe people should be able to make decisions about who they think is going to win, and who to vote for, without being told who’s going to win three months before election day. Wouldn’t you like to hear some information about this elections without someone telling you who’s going to win? That’s what I do in 2018 Governors Toss Up Races-Polls-Bob Davis Podcast 752.

Local Or National?

For example we’re told that national issues are driving all the races in the 2018 Midterm Elections. Is this true? Or is it possible local issues may be central? In some states taxes and budgets. In others, mining vs environment and business versus agriculture.

States Are Bigger Than You Think

One thing I’ve learned traveling back and forth across this country on two lane roads is the individual states of these United States are very diverse and a lot larger than they look on a map. How does this fact impact the race? Find out in 2018 Governors Toss Up Races-Polls-Bob Davis Podcast 752.

Too Close To Call? Check Again

Finally how many of these races are actually ‘toss ups’. How many contests between gubernatorial candidates really are too close to call? You might be surprised at the answer.

Red or Blue May Not Be

In conclusion the experts say the number of states under partisan party control is important. States are either ‘blue’ or ‘red’. Are all republicans and democrats created equal? Or is the truth somewhere in the middle?

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2018 Governors Toss Up Races-Polls-Bob Davis Podcast 752

Political Dealignment-Culture Shock-Bob-Davis-Podcast-750

I find it harder these days to make sense of politics. We’ll talk about it in Political Dealignment-Culture Shock-Bob-Davis-Podcast-750.

Role Of Podcasting

Moreover it’s time to talk about the unique role of podcasting in sorting out the noise. Especially since our day to day news coverage has become a reality TV drama. A minstrel through the lens of Cable TV News and Social Media.

News Is A Reality Show

What will it be this week? A reveal in court that has to be walked back? A trade deal touted as the greatest thing ever that closer examination turns out to be just ok? An economy that is the ‘best ever‘? Diplomacy and policy discussion conducted via twitter?

Sorting Out The Noise

Especially relevant to me is the role of podcasting in this political realignment. How do podcasters help listeners navigate these times? More opinion disguised as news? Or worse, opinion disguised as ‘truth‘.

Let Politicians Defend Themselves

Most noteworthy is the idea that the ‘little people‘ need media to defend and interpret everything politicians say and do, when those politicians should be able to defend themselves. Find out more in Political Dealignment-Culture Shock-Bob-Davis-Podcast-750.

Tuning Out

Finally I am beginning to get the impression people are turning away and tuning out the noise anyway. Should podcasters rush to cover stories in depth that will be forgotten in twenty four hours?

Mean Discourse

I spent a weekend delving into the last one hundred years of history for Podcast 749. Our country and the world has changed so much over the last century. We have exchanged the industrial revolution for a technical revolution. Technology has made our discourse meaner.

An Invisible America

There is an America where people share their passions and help each other out regardless of their political opinions. That America just isn’t always visible on social media and definitely not visible in news coverage of every breath taken in Washington DC.

Maybe that’s the problem.

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Political Dealignment-Culture Shock-Bob-Davis-Podcast-750

Trump-Russia-Comments-Media Firestorm-Bob Davis Podcast 739

President Trump’s comments with Russian President Putin in Helsinki this week kicked off a media firestorm. With stories like this it’s hard to tell which end is up, these days. We’ll talk about it in Trump-Russia-Comments-Media Firestorm-Bob Davis Podcast 739.

A Disaster For The White House

Everything was going “so well” until the President went to Helsinki, Finland to talk to Russian President Putin.

Most noteworthy were comments from Trump that contradicted US intelligence assessments saying Russia interfered in the 2016 election.

Treason?

Were Trump’s comments a mistake or intentional?

Do they constitute ‘treason’? Really?

When You Have To Say Something…

As a podcaster I do not envy people who have to be on the air everyday and react to these kinds of breaking stories. When a president as unpredictable as this one makes news with every tweet and comment what does one say?

When Press Conferences Go Bad

It’s especially relevant to note the Trump-Putin summit did not result in any signed agreements. There was a cordial discussion. It was the joint press conference that kicked off a media rampage of truly biblical proportion in the US. It certainly didn’t help that Trump was unprepared, and proud of it.

We’ll break it down in Trump-Russia-Comments-Media Firestorm-Bob Davis Podcast 739.

Telling Us What To Think

Moreover critics and supporters are busy telling all of us what to think and what will happen next. Either Trump’s a genius or a fool. He’s getting a second term or will be impeached. Academics write several hundred words supporting the so called ‘resistance’ or articulating the president’s policy for him.

Everyone On TV or Radio Is An Expert

Everything Trump does has ‘never been done before’. Former government officials are trotted out to tell us how this is the worst thing that has ever happened. Smarty Pants Professors tell us what Abe Lincoln or Woodrow Wilson would have done.

Now What?

In conclusion, are people really going to take to the streets because Trump upset the Mueller applecart in Helsinki? Is Trump in the process of destroying the Republican party? Are democrats doing the same thing on the left, by attacking everything the president does? Let’s talk about it.

(Editor’s Note: At the beginning of this podcast I say, “until Trump went to Russia”. Of course this is a joke. The president went to Helsinki, Finland for his bilateral meeting with Russian President Putin.)

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Trump-Russia-Comments-Media Firestorm-Bob Davis Podcast 739


 

 

Trump Foreign Trade Fight-Free Trade-Protection-Bob Davis Podcast 737

President Trump slapped tax increases on goods imported to the US from Europe, China, Mexico and Canada. Our trading partners retaliated with their own tariffs. Now what? Find out in Trump Foreign Trade Fight-Free Trade-Protection-Bob Davis Podcast 737.

What Is A Tariff Anyway?

Finally someone has defined what a tariff is. Moreover you might be surprised to learn the history of trade legislation in the United States goes back to 1789.

These days we are awash in charges and counter charges in the media. Trade Wars and Rumors of Trade Wars. This kind of coverage doesn’t serve anyone.

1945 Looms Large In Trade Discussions

Most noteworthy is the impact of World War 2 and the advent of nuclear weapons in 1945. Since then, trade deals have been  considered central to keeping the peace and stabilizing the world.

Trade Has Been A Political Football since Hamilton

Trade has been regional and national issue in the United States in every political era. None other than Alexander Hamilton was an advocate of high taxes on imports going back to 1789.

Trump A Throw Back To The 1840’s?

Moreover tariffs were an issue in local and national politics in the US until the introduction of the Income Tax in 1913. Is President Trump a throw back to the 1840’s? Find out in Trump Foreign Trade Fight-Free Trade-Protection-Bob Davis Podcast 737.

NAFTA China Mercantilism Free Trade

We hear so much in the news about trade but few of us understand it. China. NAFTA. Mercantilism. Trade Protection. Free Trade. As citizens we need to make informed decisions about what is best for each of us individually and the country. With all the noise about trade it’s almost impossible for people to do that.

Especially Relevant Today As It Was Back In The Day

In conclusion with yet another new trade bill in the offing the question of whether the US should protect its markets or open them is as relevant today as it was in 1789.

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Trump Foreign Trade Fight-Free Trade-Protection-Bob Davis Podcast 737

Spring Has Sprung-Midnight Walk And Talk-Political Talk Reset-Podcast 715

In the Upper Midwest, spring has sprung. These days in my neck of the woods, we haven’t been able to spend much time outside. Walking in the night air makes me think about how much I’ve changed over the last few years. Find out how in Spring Has Sprung-Midnight Walk And Talk-Political Talk Reset-Podcast 715.

Walk And Talk Rules

The rules of the walk and talk are no preparation, no plan. A throwback to the years when I would walk late at night with my grandfather.

Time For Transition

Seems like spring is a transition. A great opportunity for us to reset our body clocks, as well as our thinking.

Shutting down the news feed, taking a break from social media and turning off cable news has been a theme in my podcasts. Sometimes it seems like cascading news events are difficult to keep up with.

The More Things Change…

Moreover, as I walk through my neighborhood, I can see that despite the breathless news coverage of details that probably won’t matter in a year, not much has changed in the real world. I’ve changed, though.

Rising Above The Debate

Most noteworthy, experience and especially Yoga have helped me rise above the partisan debates. These days I can actually be more of a ‘fair judge‘ of the hypocrisy of our institutions and politics. I’ll tell you what I see from my perspective. How you react is up to you. In Spring Has Sprung-Midnight Walk And Talk-Political Talk Reset-Podcast 715.

Hurtling Down The Tracks To Somewhere

In conclusion, something I talk about in this podcast is the sense I have that we are hurtling down the tracks toward some kind of clarifying turning point. I have no idea when we’ll get there or when we’ll get there.

I have read enough history and lived long enough to know that this level of rancor and venom usually do not lead to good decisions or policy making. That suggests at some point, someone will make the kind of mistake that produces major shockwaves.

Midnight Walk

Take a break from the paid shills of the two political parties, and the endless and baseless predictions of future events by talking heads and personalities. Take a midnight walk with me and drink in a spring night.

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Spring Has Sprung-Midnight Walk And Talk-Political Talk Reset-Podcast 715

 

Truth About 2018 US Senate Predictions-Fairy Tales-Podcast 712

They are at it again. Pundits and talking heads are telling us who’s going to win the 2018 mid term elections. What is the truth about 2018? Find out in Truth About 2018 US Senate Predictions-Fairy Tales-Podcast 712.

Election Day Tuesday November 6th 2018

Tuesday, November 6th, 2018 is a big day. Up for election is the entire US House of Representatives and one third of the US Senate. Governors and state legislators are also up for election on this day.

It Comes Down To Key Races For Republicans and Democrats

This podcast focuses on the US Senate race in 2018. Specifically on several key races that may decide the majority. This is critical for President Trump’s agenda from 2019 and his reelection effort in 2020. Learn the basic contours of these races in Truth About 2018 US Senate Predictions-Fairy Tales-Podcast 712.

The Media IS Doing It Again

Problem is the media has already decided the outcome of this election. It will be democrat wave, they say. The reason? Big national issues favor the democrats. Gun Control. The Me Too movement. Immigration. Trade Protection. Is this true?

These days it seems like when the media says something is going to go one way, it often goes another. I will not tell you what’s going to happen. The Bob Davis Podcasts isn’t in the business of predicting the future, telling people what to think or who to vote for. As in 2016, I’ll try to stick to the facts we know about these races and let you decide what to think about them.

Battleground Senate Races

This podcast focuses on US Senate races in key states considered ‘battlegrounds’. Truth is, republicans are defending fewer vulnerable seats than democratic candidates. Whether than means the GOP will hold onto their majority in the US Senate is quite another question.

All Politics Is Local – Especially Statewide Senate Races

Moreover, Senate races may be effected by national issues, but they are statewide races. Personality and local issues are major factors in such elections. I spend a little time in this podcast outlining examples of regional and geographic political differences. Check it out in Truth About 2018 US Senate Predictions-Fairy Tales-Podcast 712.

Time for Truth about 2018 US Senate Predictions in Podcast 712

In conclusion, despite what the pundits and so called experts tell you, national issues that seem to benefit republicans or democrats, don’t always benefit candidates in tight races in their home states.

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Truth About 2018 US Senate Predictions-Fairy Tales-Podcast 712