Trumpers-Think-Political-Polls-Lie-Bob Davis Podcast 862

Republicans Hate Polls…Unless They Show Trump In The Lead

There’s so much bias these days on every media platform there’s no trust. A conversation with a republican friend lead to this podcast about whether polls lie. Find out more by listening to Trumpers-Think-Political-Polls-Lie-Bob Davis Podcast 862.

Who Did The Poll?

First of all when it comes to polling, the first question a republican will ask is, “Who did the poll”. Especially if it reflects poorly on the president. In addition their second favorite response is, “No One Called Me”. Gah!

What Poll Will You Accept?

In contrast I wonder, “What poll would you accept?“.

Polling Explained. Again.

It’s time again to explain polling and the potential for a republican win or loss in 2020.

No bias or predictions. Just the lay of the land.

Accept and Consider Information Challenging Your Position

Above all political true believers reject any poll that doesn’t show their guy winning. Even more, political analysis requires accepting and considering information that challenges you.

Approval Ratings 101

In Trumpers-Think-Political-Polls-Lie-Bob Davis Podcast 862 front and center are approval ratings and their ability to predict winners.

Past Elections

Moreover I’ll look at how you can use polls to make solid judgements. I’ll also talk about the history of past elections as a tool.

Polls Don’t Lie … The Media Lies

Not only do I reject the assertion the polls “lie”. When averaged they can be quite predictive.

Unfortunately the wholesale ignorance of polling in our media is especially relevant. For Example, while the polls in 2016 showed a close race for president, they never predicted a Clinton win.

Trump Struggles In The Battleground States

Finally at issue are tracking polls showing the president’s approval rating in battleground states plummeting. With manufacturing reportedly in recession in Wisconsin and Michigan, republican bosses are concerned. They should be. Trump has to win the battleground states to win a second term.

A Republican Siding With The UAW?

Perhaps it is for that reason that the president is rumored to want to intervene in a current GM strike, in favor of the UAW.

History And No Judgements

Therefore this podcast is valuable because it looks at chances for both a landslide as well as a tough race, without judgements and predictions. There’s a lot of information here about past presidential races, the history of polling and approval ratings. It might come in handy.

Sponsored by Reliafund Payment Processors and The Strategic Business Planners at Virtus Law

Trumpers-Think-Political-Polls-Lie-Bob Davis Podcast 862

Real Time 2018 Election Results-Live-Bob Davis Podcast 774

These days election results in real time without BS is a tall order. Experience the results in real time with me in Real Time 2018 Election Results-Live-Bob Davis Podcast 774.

Working America Into A Froth

It’s especially relevant how the media and politicians managed to work most of America into a froth for this election. Democrats regained control of the House of Representatives. Republicans did better than predicted in the Senate. The GOP also managed to surprise in a couple of governor’s races.

How Predictions Stack Up To Results

It’s Most noteworthy how results stacked up to the predictions. I see it this way. Democrats managed to cobble together a few pick ups in house races here and there into a majority. Republicans could have prevented some of these losses. What happened? How could the GOP manage to increase it’s majority in the senate but lose it in the house?

Minnesota Republicans Got The 8th District As Consolation Prize

Moreover for my Minnesota subscribers and listeners, there were major losses for incumbent republicans in the 2nd and 3rd House districts, all the statewide races and the state legislature. The consolation was one of the few republican pick ups in the House is Minnesota’s 8th district.

Blue Wave?

Was it a blue wave? My analysis says no. Democrats won some hard fought victories in key house races to control the house but they failed to win key governor’s races and lost ground in the Senate. More details in Real Time 2018 Election Results-Live-Bob Davis Podcast 774.

Some Outcomes Still Out

I am still waiting on the outcome of key races. Just learning the Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker has lost his bid for a third term, and waiting for some House races, Senate bids in Arizona and Montana. In coming days there will be plenty of post analysis, celebration and blame to go around.

Hard Drives Humming and Pizza

In conclusion there’s still something about a quiet night at the Broadcast Bunker. Results came from the Internet. The hum of hard drives and processors kept me company.

(Editor’s Note: A late development Monday in Minnesota. Republicans can add another pick up with Jim Hagedorn’s victory in Southern Minnesota’s 1st District. Minnesota republicans managed to lose all the statewide races and the state House of Representatives, making victories in the 8th and 1st even more bittersweet.)

And we had pizza

Sponsored by Citizens Council For Health Freedom, Reliafund Payment Processors and Ryan Plumbing and Heating of Saint Paul

Real Time 2018 Election Results-Live-Bob Davis Podcast 774

Final Approach-Lock Down-Election 2018-Bob Davis Podcast 773

These days everyone on the air everywhere seems hell bent for leather to predict the future. Moreover they’re also often partisan commentators. In this final podcast before the election, what to look for on election night. Get details in Final Approach-Lock Down-Election 2018-Bob Davis Podcast 773.

No Predictions

I don’t do predictions. For the purposes of election coverage at The Bob Davis Podcasts, I don’t do partisanship.

Has Donald Trump Changed Politics?

For election 2018 I have two especially relevant questions. First, have the tactics of President Donald Trump changed American politics? Second, are the media’s predictions skewed? Get it all in Final Approach-Lock Down-Election 2018-Bob Davis Podcast 773.

Nine Podcasts Detailing Toss Up Races

I’ve done nine podcasts detailing the so called toss up races for House, Senate and Governors across the country. Listen to them here. These podcasts explain the media storyline which is that President Trump will lose the house, at the very least.

Democrats Need 26 Wins

Democrats need to win at least 26 seats in order to take back the house. With over 60 toss up races, according to some analysts the storyline that there will be a change in House leadership is easily sold. Moreover taking back the Senate will be even more difficult. In Final Approach-Lock Down-Election 2018-Bob Davis Podcast 773 I explain why it might not be that easy.

Decide For Yourself

Finally if you’re watching TV on election night you need to know what to look for so you can decide for yourself what the chances of a change in House or Senate leadership is a possible outcome.

No Polling Bad Polling

Truth is many ‘toss up’ classifications for House elections across the country don’t even have polling to back it up. What’s more what polling exists is either spotty, dated, to skewed. I explain why, where and how in Final Approach-Lock Down-Election 2018-Bob Davis Podcast 773.

What To Watch For In Each Time Zone On Election Night

Working our way west from Virginia and Florida, to the central and mountain time zones, all the way to the Pacific, I take a look at the headline elections. House, Senate and Governors. What will pick ups or holds for either mainline political party mean for the final tally?

Minnesota May Tell The Story

In conclusion I don’t know which way this election will turn but I can tell you what to look for as it happens. Listeners and Subscribers in Minnesota will be especially interested in the part of the podcast that deals with the Land Of Ten Thousand Lakes, because Minnesota has at least four nail biter elections, on which control of the House at least could rest.

Finally there are over one hundred ballot measures which could effect voter turn out in some key states. For a complete state by state list, go here.

(Editor’s Note: Another number thrown about for Democrat control of the House is 23. My calculations say they need 25 seats. Some say 26 to cement control of the chamber. For political watchers, if Democrats gain up to 23 seats before the end of the night on November 6th 2018, a majority is pretty much guaranteed at that point).

Sponsored by Ryan Plumbing and Heating of Saint Paul

 

Final Approach-Lock Down-Election 2018-Bob Davis Podcast 773