Podcast 541

Podcast 541. Electoral College Yoga. Get ready to twist your brain into pretzel like shapes as I talk about the electoral college, polls, and what the benchmarks for Election 2016 are so far. I’ll do another benchmark in about a month and one just before the election in late October, or early November. There are a lot of caveats on polling data. While most media people and their viewers seem to want to talk about national presidential preference polls, the proof of the pudding is in the state by state polls. The United States does not elect its presidents with a national vote. In fact, a presidential election is fifty state elections. Voters are selecting a slate of electors, chosen and voting generally according to state law and state party rules. So when you hear one candidate is ‘ahead’ over another in a national poll it really doesn’t mean anything. In 2008 and again in 2012 Republicans in particular were so hopeful based on national preference polls that if you said McCain or Mitt Romney wasn’t going to win, you were ‘raining on the parade’. But, if you looked closely at state polls in those election cycles, the outcome was not a surprise. State polls have their own problems; Smaller sample size, different polling methodologies, and in some states they are no polls until just before the election. While its not advisable to compare different polls of different sources and methodologies, we do it all the time. We’re looking for trends primarily. Currently while Donald J. Trump leads Hillary Clinton in a national presidential preference poll, the state polls tell a completely different story. It’s not a good story for republicans. The case isn’t closed. Trump still has time, but time is fleeting. I don’t support any candidate. I’m not working for any candidate. I’m not going to tell you how to vote. I’m also not going to spin the polling data to make you think something can happen, or is going to happen. If you want the straight talk on what’s going on, the Bob Davis Podcasts is the place to check back for these benchmark state-by-state analyses as we progress to Election Day 2016. Sponsored by Karow Contracting and Ryan Plumbing and Heating of Saint Paul.

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Podcast 481

Ted Cruz Denies Affairs. The tabloid that has a history of breaking lurid stories about the affairs of politicians and public personalities is on the hot seat with a new story about Senator Ted Cruz. The National Enquirer story alleges the presidential hopeful has had extra marital affairs with five women. Though the women’s faces were obscured in the tabloid story, two of the women have been allegedly identified as staffers for Donald Trump, Carly Fiorina and at various times Senator Cruz. Moreover there’s also evidence of a Cruz associated PAC which donated a half a million dollars to the Fiorina campaign. If that donation was ‘hush money’ as has been alleged, a far more serious allegation could be leveled against Cruz since the candidates aren’t supposed to have anything to do with PACs. Ted Cruz Denies Affairs. Senator Cruz says the story is a lie, says it was shopped to other outlets, all orchestrated by Donald Trump, since he is ‘friends’ with the publisher of the National Enquirer (based in West Palm Beach, by the way, where Trump has a residence and resort.) Trump says he had nothing to do with the story. Truth is, this ‘story’ has been floating around political and reporters circles for months, and has been talked about on twitter under #thething for at least weeks. Is it true? No one knows. Was it Trump? No one knows. It could have been Trump, but recent developments suggest former elements of the Rubio campaign shopped the story. Could have been Republican establishment types terrified of a Trump nomination, as well as a Cruz nomination, looking to clip both candidates before three critical primaries in the coming weeks in Wisconsin, New York and Pennsylvania. It could have been the Cruz campaign looking to get out in front of a potential scandal and turn it back on their number one rival, the Trump campaign. No one knows, and no one will know until the story is disproven, retracted, or the women in question come forward. At least one of them, Amanda Carpenter, passionately and vehemently denies it. Don’t put it past the establishment to do something like this. Politics gets ugly, and there are so many more months of campaigning to go. Sponsored by Ryan Plumbing of Saint Paul, Pride of Homes and Hydrus.

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Podcast 384

Final Thoughts From The Road. With a tragedy in South Carolina, and more nonsense coming out of Washington DC, the chattering class will be busy chattering this weekend. They’ll be telling us the country is falling apart, sowing the seeds of discontent, depression, confusion, envy, and anxiety. The thing is, if you travel the country state by state, you don’t see discontent, depression, confusion, envy and anxiety. You see people coping; in fact thriving. In the middle one of the most dense population centers in the world — the US eastern seaboard — you’ll find Maryland’s Eastern Shore, a rural paradise. Then there’s Ocean City Maryland, which actually is hot and sweaty, but everyone seems to be having a good time. Fifty states, with fifty different histories, cultures, many of them thriving. Yes, thriving. How can this be? The America you see and hear about on Fox News and MSNBC, or you hear about on scratchy dying AM Talk Radio stations is burning; falling apart, splitting at the seams. The pounders and the screamers polarize us into right and left, and tell us our country is a place where people hate each other, members of different ‘castes’ seethe, where the rich get super rich and everyone else gets nothing. The only thing is, that’s not what is going on in the real America. If you travel it, you’ll see what I mean. Are there injustices? Is there crime? Poverty? Yes. But, somehow in this place, painted as the seventh level of Dante’s Inferno, people raise families, go to work, do what they can for each other, start businesses and vacation together. I saw people of all colors, cultures and languages working together, eating together, living together. Meanwhile, the truck stops are chock full of trucks, RV’s and travelers twenty four hours a day. The restaurants are busy, as are the Targets and Home Depots and Food Lions, even small town grocery stores. It used to be said that the media in America is a mirror, to show society what it is. Well, I am here to tell you, Houston we have a problem. The media isn’t showing us what we are, or what is going on, because the images just don’t match. The Media and the politicians in Washington are lying to us, and using the outrage machine to their political advantage. I’ve seen about three quarters of this country in the last 4 months, at the most basic level; Interstates, two lanes, and dirt roads. I’ve driven through the big towns, and the small towns, meeting and talking to regular people. I just don’t see the strife and struggle we’re being told ‘we’ are experiencing. There are challenges in every time. Our challenge is turning off these idiots on television, and in Washington DC. America not only has a future, it has a great future and it’s time we had leadership that recognizes and encourages our innovation and energy, rather than scares, and divides us, lies to us and tells us what we have to do. Let’s start making it happen, regardless of what the chattering chatterers have to say this weekend. Sponsored by X Government Cars. 

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