2018 House Toss Up Races-Story Lines-Predictions-Part 1-Podcast 716

Will republicans maintain control of the US House Of Representatives in 2018’s Mid Term election? Or are those predicting a Democratic Wave right? Find out in 2018 House Toss Up Races-Story Lines-Predictions-Part 1-Podcast 716. For part one click here.

Media Creates Confusion

These days the media is obsessed with predicting the future. Moreover they’re so busy telling the future viewers are left confused about where the close races are and why they are considered close.

West Coast To The Mississippi

In two epic political podcasts, I lay out the battle ground for the most vulnerable house races in 2018. Part 1 covers the west coast to the Mississippi. Part 2 (Podcast 717) covers districts east of the Mississippi to the Atlantic. Political Junkies these two are for you. If you want the same thing on the US Senate Toss Up Races, check out Podcast 712.

Skipping The Story Line

In 2018 House Toss Up Races-Story Lines-Predictions-Part 1-Podcast 716 it is most noteworthy that I don’t buy into a story line. On one side it’s a blue wave. On the other all is well. It is far from clear what the result of this election will be. That doesn’t stop the shills bought and paid for from telling you what’s going to happen before you’ve even had a chance to consider it.

Primaries Play A Role

Election Day is Tuesday November 6th, 2018. Many districts have primaries in May, June and August. The results of these primaries will determine the tactical situation in key districts. A sober look at these races goes a long way to clarifying the situation for listeners and viewers.

An Ocean Of Time

Moreover, there’s an ocean of time between May 2018 and Election Day. Will local or national and international events have the most impact in the tight races? How many seats are republicans defending? What about local personalities? Most of the time, all the information isn’t in one place where it can serve as a baseline for future discussions.

No One Can Consistently Predict Elections

Bottom line? No one can predict elections. We learned that in 2016. What’s more, House elections are even more difficult to predict. 435 members up for election. The Democrats have 193 seats, the republicans 237. Both parties 200 or so seats solidly democrat or republican. That leaves about 30 races which can be considered toss ups. This is where we focus.

Devil’s In The Details

As the old saying goes, the Devil’s In The Details. Did Trump beat Clinton in your district? How did your congressman do? What are the local issues? If it’s an open seat is your district Republican, Democrat or somewhere in between? From California’s 10th to New Hampshire’s 1st, From Oregon to Georgia.

Sponsored by Ryan Plumbing and Heating of Saint Paul and Sal Di Leo Inspirational Speaker

2018 House Toss Up Races-Story Lines-Predictions-Part 1-Podcast 716

 

 

 

Franken Resigns-GOP Celebrates-Sexual Politics Rules-Podcast 683

Minnesota Senator Al Franken announced his impending resignation on December 7th, 2017. A can of worms popped open for both political parties as Minnesota and National Republicans and Democrats try to figure out the aftermath. We’ll talk about it in Franken Resigns-GOP Celebrates-Sexual Politics Rules-Podcast 683.

Welcome To The Age Of American Ignorance

These days people wonder what has happened to American politics. To answer that question, one need only to turn to social media. What passes for political discourse these days is nothing more than ignorant shouting, name calling and demanding that they all get what they want right now.

Garbage In Garbage Out

Especially relevant is what happens when a real crisis develops. A Tax Reform package. The aftermath of the resignation of a senator. Moreover what passes for ‘news’ on biased platforms is garbage. We’ll try to balance that in Franken Resigns-GOP Celebrates-Sexual Politics Rules-Podcast 683.

Minnesota As Political Ground Zero In 2018

Minnesotans can look forward to an especially hot political season, starting in January 2018. There will certainly be two senate seats up for grabs in 2018 and one in 2020. With a close race for republicans in Alabama the senate and future of the country hangs in the balance. Why is Franken delaying his departure? Who will his replacement be?

Thermidor II

Finally, a cautionary note. In conclusion a podcaster wonders whether the politics of personal destruction has become a little like the aftermath of the French Revolution. A mob sending shocked victims to the gallows. In this case, the gallows of public opinion. While not defending whatever the accused have been accused of, it is true that they have not been able to face their accusers in a court where they have a chance to present a defense and question the character of their accused, the way their character has been questioned.

This does not end well. Just sayin’

(Editor’s Note: Some people have wondered how the governor would ‘appoint himself’ to be the next senator from Minnesota. The governor resigns and the Lieutenant Governor then appoints the former governor to the senate. In 1976 Minnesota governor Wendell Anderson resigned to be appointed to the senate by Lieutenant Governor Rudy Perpich. The DFL suffered a stinging defeat at the next election. This defeat was ever after called ‘The Minnesota Massacre‘.)

Sponsored by CIRO 3D Motorcycle Parts and Accessories and Ryan Plumbing and Heating of Saint Paul

Franken Resigns-GOP Celebrates-Sexual Politics Rules-Podcast 683

Podcast 516

Summer Starts The Year. Most of this year has been like living on an ice floe, or behind glass, or encased in cotton. Now that summer has started, it feels like things are speeding up. It feels like the year is just starting. If that assessment resonates with you, there are three stories to watch in the next few weeks that may bear fruit as major game changers. Or not. First, Britain votes on June 23rd on whether to exit the European Union. If you read the analysts it’s all gloom and doom. Such an exit will trigger an economic collapse, or worse, plunge Europe into a collection of disagreeable states that triggered two world wars in the 20th century. Yet, if you think about it, there are many states that aren’t in the EU, both in Europe and in the rest of the world and we all seem to get along just fine. The world isn’t going to stop trading with Britain whether it stays in the EU, or not. Second, Movements such as the British Exit movement are characterized by the worldwide media as “Populist” or “Nationalist”, or worse “Xenophobic”. Explanations are offered to suggest this is the effect worldwide of the Trump candidacy. What if that isn’t it at all? What if people are struggling to come to grips politically with overbearing and increasingly incompetent governments, and central banks who seem to be doing more harm than good. The west seems to have a disturbing faith in government as a solution to all that ails. What if governments, politicians, technocrats and elitist ‘leaders’ are the problem? Is it possible we have lost the language to be able to define the problem, since almost every story about the economy leaves one with the impression that there’s only one way to address economic stagnation in the US and the rest of the world and that is to stimulate demand. What if stimulating demand isn’t the issue at all. Since we’re all so steeped in one way of thinking regardless of what ‘side’ of the political divide we’re on, we seem to be struggling with the issue of how to describe the tyranny of government. Our political system doesn’t seem to have the capacity to address it, mainly because we don’t seem to have the language to name the problem. Thus, people get described as ‘populist’, or ‘xenophobic’, and non governmental solutions get described the same way. If we talked about government in terms of Monarchy, perhaps Americans would better understand the increasingly unlimited power of government over our lives, and the unlimited ability of government to fail. Maybe that’s what the British in favor of an exit are saying. Third, republican candidate for the nomination for president Donald Trump may suffer death by a thousand cuts, politically speaking in the next few weeks as more and more issues come to the forefront concerning his campaign effort. Vulnerable Republican Senators are so concerned about losing the Senate they managed to get Marco Rubio to announce he is running for Senate in Florida after all. Moreover, Romney supporters are getting appointed to powerful posts on the rules committee, a ‘conscience clause’ rule change is in the offing, former Bush Administration officials are endorsing Hillary Clinton and it was revealed this week Trump’s campaign only has 1.3 million dollars on hand for a national campaign, and isn’t fully staffed. Get ready, a major challenge to Trump is in the works, with all the usual suspects working behind the scenes. Did someone say Jeb Bush? Romney? Ryan? Rubio? Time will tell. Sponsored by Karow Contracting and Brush Studio in the West End, Saint Louis Park.