Photo Finish-Down To The Wire-Election 2018-Podcast 767

With just about two weeks to go until election day 2018 polls are showing tighter races. Suddenly the narratives and storylines the media loves are thrown to the wind. Find out what’s changing in Photo Finish-Down To The Wire-Election 2018-Podcast 767.

Listen To The Election 2018 Series

Especially relevant are the series of podcasts I did looking into all the so called ‘toss up races’. What I found is detailed in that series. Listen to those podcasts here.

House Senate and Governor’s Elections Are Tightening

In addition what I suggested in my series on the midterms is many of these house, senate and governor’s elections would be close anyway. Sure enough across the country polls show tightening races as we come down to the wire.

Media Bias?

Are media elites in Washington and New York City operating from a world view that sees the possibility of a so called ‘blue wave‘ election when there hasn’t been much evidence to support this view? Find out in Photo Finish-Down To The Wire-Election 2018-Podcast 767.

A Primer on Polls. Again.

Finally there are the polls. In this free wheeling podcast I give subscribers and listeners another quick primer on the polls. Polls do not ‘predict’. Polls do not ‘say’. Closer elections make it more difficult for pollsters to ‘predict’ outcomes.

One Poll To Watch Out For

The New York Times/Sienna College poll is singled out in this podcast as problematic. This poll is showing wide variances in its results for candidates in Tennessee, Minnesota and many other places. Should democrats and republicans believe this particular poll. In the absence of any other polls to trend I would tell my listeners to be very dubious of this poll. I’ll tell you why in Photo Finish-Down To The Wire-Election 2018-Podcast 767.

In conclusion the mad rush to analyze the impact of news events on the election, on a day to day basis, is probably a mistake.

This one is going down to the wire to a photo finish!

Sponsored by Citizens Council For Health Freedom and John D Scott Personal Injury Lawyer

Photo Finish-Down To The Wire-Election 2018-Podcast 767

Taylor Swift-Kanye West-When Artists Pick Sides-Podcast 765

Taylor Swift gets involved in a senate race. Kanye West endorses the president. These days when emotions run high, do artists risk their fan base when they pick a side? Find out in Taylor Swift-Kanye West-When Artists Pick Sides-Podcast 765.

Influencers Who May Not Be Influential

Moreover it’s not just artists. Comedians, actors and music stars get publicity for choosing sides too. Especially relevant are political bloggers and other influencers who think they can pick winners in national political events.

Religious You Tubers On Crack

In addition religious broadcasters spend a lot of time back pedaling from predictions of the end of the world. Why would those who are about transcending the world choose to endorse a political viewpoint in the world? We’ll talk about it in Taylor Swift-Kanye West-When Artists Pick Sides-Podcast 765.

Image Versus Free Speech

This isn’t about free speech. The seed of thought here is about image. I think artists are bigger than the slimy and messy world of politics. Finally, even political commentators ruin themselves when they feel the need to rush out and endorse a political ‘hero’ of the moment. The goal is usually relevance. Or, is it ego?

When Idealists and Artists Fall Into The Oily Political Pit

In the end, it’s my experience politicians never do what they promise. Finally the seedy world of politics especially in Washington DC is no place for idealists. Truth is, the best artists can channel their frustration or anger into…art! Real art.

Memes Videos and Rants

Unfortunately it seems like local artists and commentators as well as a few national artists who should know better, feel compelled to fill their social media feeds with memes, videos and rants. I am sure most of them would hope those will someday be forgotten. As a result I tentatively suggest artists and commentators use our talent and our tools rather than overt rants and social media.

Sponsored By Johantgen’s Jewelers and Water Butler Water Purification Systems

Taylor Swift-Kanye West-When Artists Pick Sides-Podcast 765


 

 

Conventional Wisdom-Election 2018 Follies-Podcast 764

These days it always pays to wait for an outcome before you predict the future. With the confirmation of Brett Cavanaugh to the US Supreme Court we have an outcome. Now comes an avalanche of predictions about the court fight’s impact on the election. Find out why I say ignore the prognosticators in Conventional Wisdom-Election 2018 Follies-Podcast 764.

Bottom line, elections belong to the people who vote. Not tea leaves

Most noteworthy in 2018 are several US Senate Elections. Moreover scores of House elections are very close.

Blue Wave. Wait! Red Wave! No Wait! Blue Wave

What’s the media telling the American people? It’s a ‘blue’ wave fueled by young adults and women angry at the treatment of Christine Ford, nemesis of the former court nominee. Don’t like that story line? Guess what? Republican voters are seething and will go out and vote again democrats in droves. So say the story tellers.

Not Enough Data

In contrast to the nonsense being spewed by now famous political ‘scientists’ no one knows who’s actually going to vote. Polls are scanty and some shoddily conducted. Another factor is the fact that determining who will vote and why is truly an art. In other words, no one knows. It’s about time someone explains it’s hard to say what will happen on November 6th, without picking sides.

Quick! Who’s Your Congressman?

Truth is midterm voter turn out is lower than presidential years. Many people don’t even know who their congressman is. National issues don’t always drive elections. Almost all the House districts that aren’t gerrymandered are close. And somehow one national story is going to drive the results of all these elections? Are they toss ups that can go either way? Are these close races evidence of a blue wave? Find out in Conventional Wisdom-Election 2018 Follies-Podcast 764.

Coverage Of Politics In This Country is Terrible

In conclusion I am driven to do another political podcast I did not want to do. Why? Because most of what passes for political coverage in this country is terrible. Too many predictions. Lots of bias. Mostly telling both sides what they want to hear. Finally someone who tells it like it is and waits for election day to judge the outcome.

Sponsored by Water Butler Water Purification Systems and Johantgen Jewelers

Conventional Wisdom-Election 2018 Follies-Podcast 764

 

2018 Toss Up Elections-Final Thoughts-Podcast 758

The 2018 Midterm election season has been most noteworthy for its twists and turns. Now as we head into the final month of the campaigns, find out what to look for on election day in 2018 Toss Up Elections-Final Thoughts-Podcast 758.

Media Cherry Picks Stats

Then there’s the media’s habit of cherry picking statistics. They call it ‘political coverage’. Statistics prove the story line. Damn lies convince us none of this has ever happened before.

Predictions of Doom

The president’s approval rating has never been worse. Voters have never been more fired up. If things continue the way they are now, terrible outcomes are inevitable. The president’s political party always loses seats in a midterm. Are these predictions of doom true? Learn more in 2018 Toss Up Elections-Final Thoughts-Podcast 758.

Polls Don’t Lie. The Media Lies

Finally, in my experience making predictions about statewide and house elections based on national polls and baselines is problematic although some research suggests they may be reliable predictors in midterm elections. There just isn’t enough information to say one way or another what will happen. That’s why we wait and see what the vote actually turns out to be.

Labels and Beliefs

Meanwhile these days we’re awash in labels and broadly held beliefs in pure nonsense. So and so is a “transformational figure”. A “disaster” has changed voting in a district or state forever.

Be The Change

I believe it’s time to change how we cover politics and I am putting my podcasts where my mouth is in this series on the midterm election toss ups. A close look at the data. A fair shake for the candidates. Letting the listeners and subscribers decide for themselves. Putting all the data in the podcasts so you can compare on election night. That’s what it’s all about for The Bob Davis Podcasts for Election 2018 coverage.

In conclusion, through all of it, I have to say I have no idea what will happen on November 6th, 2018, and neither does anyone else.

That’s up to you.

Sponsored by Johantgen Jewelers and Reliafund Payment Processing

2018 Toss Up Elections-Final Thoughts-Podcast 758

 

 

 

 

2018 Senate Toss Up Races-Polls-Bob Davis Podcast 751

These days political coverage turns elections into sporting events. My mission is to provide political coverage without making predictions. Let’s start with the Senate in 2018 Senate Toss Up Races-Polls-Bob Davis Podcast 751.

November 6th 2018

First of all throughout this podcast I refer to election day as November 7th 2018. In fact it’s November 6th, 2018. Until election day, many of the questions people have about outcomes will remain unanswered. I’ll tell you why.

Statewide Races

Furthermore commentators love to make national predictions. It’s important to remember these are individual state elections. Despite efforts by the media to make you think these are national elections, they aren’t. They’re local elections. Find out more in 2018 Senate Toss Up Races-Polls-Bob Davis Podcast 751.

The Stakes Are High

Especially relevant are the stakes. The future of Donald Trump’s presidency is in the balance with these Midterm Elections regardless of the local and national issues driving them.  Much of the coverage of the 2018 midterm elections hinges on this truth.

Key Races

What it comes down to are about 6 or 7 key races in various states around the country. As we get closer to election day (November 6th 2018, by the way) the line up of so called toss up races might change.

Holding The Majority

Republicans currently hold 50 seats in the US Senate with one vacant seat. Democrats hold 48. 2 Independents caucus with democrats giving them 49 votes potentially. With Vice President Mike Pence, the republicans can count on a 51 seat majority.

Arizona’s governor will appoint a replacement for the late John McCain, giving the republicans a potential 52 vote majority.

Will republicans hold that majority?

Making Useless Predictions

Finally I am so tired of hearing these know it alls making predictions based on primary vote results and conventional wisdom. As you’ll hear in 2018 Senate Toss Up Races-Polls-Bob Davis Podcast 751 polling is pretty thin in some key races. It’s about time someone covered the story without telling you who’s going to win.

Trump’s Twitter Feed

In conclusion we’ll cover about 7 senate races worth talking about. Will the president’s twitter feed and rally machine help republicans or hurt them?

As far as predictions, I remember a sports writer’s response when I asked him which team was going to win the big game Sunday. He said “That’s why we play the game!”

Sponsored by Ryan Plumbing and Heating Of Saint Paul

2018 Senate Toss Up Races-Polls-Bob Davis Podcast 751

 

Pawlenty Loss Goes National-Tealeaves-Baseless Predictions 2018-Bob Davis Podcast-747

Welcome back to the world of empty predictions from a primary election. These days it seems like the prognosticators can’t resist telling voters what’s going to happen before they vote. Find out why I say this in Pawlenty Loss Goes National-Tealeaves-Baseless Predictions 2018-Bob Davis Podcast-747.

Shining Tim Pawlenty Steps In To Save The Day

Former two-term Governor Tim Pawlenty had it all. A statewide image. National lobbying experience. The backing of the rich guys too. Pawlenty raised 2.3 million dollars, more than all the other candidates.

Goliath Tim Pawlenty Knocked Down By David Jeff Johnson

Pawlenty still lost the primary to the endorsed MNGOP candidate, Hennepin County Commissioner Jeff Johnson. Since DFL Candidate Walz’s is linked in this blog, go here for Jeff Johnson’s official site.

Conventional Wisdom Is Right Until It Isn’t

The national media seized on Pawlenty’s strategic criticism of President Trump as the reason for his loss. Moreover they say this means republican candidates going against Trump will lose. Conventional wisdom says everyone hates Trump. Thus Trumpers may win primaries but lose the general election. Conventional Wisdom is usually right, until it isn’t. Hear it all in Pawlenty Loss Goes National-Tealeaves-Baseless Predictions 2018-Bob Davis Podcast-747.

I have a different view.

Man-Spread Pawlenty and His Rich Guy Political Bullies

I think it’s especially relevant that Pawlenty took a condescending and disrespectful tone in debates with Johnson. He said Johnson will be a three-time loser. “Man Spread” Pawlenty talked tough. He could be governor again if he wanted it. He could win, he said.

Dance with the one who brung ye

Minnesotans don’t like candidates who talk down to voters and their opponents. Especially when it isn’t necessary. Moreover times have changed. Nobody wants yesterday’s governor. Regardless of what happens in the general election, voters don’t appreciate candidates that disrespect the head of their parties.

So Much For The Grassroots On The DFL Side

In contrast DFL endorsed candidate Erin Murphy was defeated by retiring 1st district congressman Tim Walz. So much for the grassroots on the democrat side in Minnesota. Finally Democrat votes outnumbered republican votes in their primary by almost two to one. Consequently all kinds of breathless predictions have been issued about what will happen in November.

Why don’t we wait and see?

Sponsored by Ryan Plumbing and Heating Of Saint Paul and Reliafund Payment Processors

Pawlenty Loss Goes National-Tealeaves-Baseless Predictions 2018-Bob Davis Podcast-747

FaceBook’s Very Bad No Good Data Breach Elected A Bad Person-Something Must Be Done-Podcast 708

These days when something goes wrong seems like we want a new law. A new social media data breach links FaceBook to the 2016 election outcome. Due to the controversy regulation might not be far away. In FaceBook’s Very Bad No Good Data Breach Elected A Bad Person-Something Must Be Done-Podcast 708.

FaceBook Back In The News

A whistle blower says a data analytics firm duped FaceBook out of tens of millions of social media profiles. What’s more, right wing political operatives used the data to influence voters in the US possibly impacting the presidential race.

This Story Has It All

Shadowy political operatives, Russians, Social Media Companies, and crazy new tactics. Get ahead of the story with FaceBook’s Very Bad No Good Data Breach Elected A Bad Person-Something Must Be Done-Podcast 708.

Was This A Crime or Just Political Shenanigans

Especially relevant is whether this is a serious and illegal data breach. Or just another example of political shenanigans? Much as it stings, did they take your credit card numbers? Personal data? Nope. Probably just your FaceBook history and the histories of your friends.

FaceBook Is Back On The Hot Seat

Most noteworthy is Minnesota Senator Amy Klobuchar’s announcement that she wants FaceBook’s Mark Zuckerberg to testify. Because the social media giant tried to kill the story then admitted it was true, this testimony could be pivotal.

Your Data? Really?

Truth is, these companies sell data. Consequently, you sign over the rights to your data when you sign up. The question here is who owns the data? Did Cambridge Analytica use fraud to obtain the data from FaceBook? More importantly what election laws were violated if any? If not, it’s civil issue between FaceBook and companies and parties involved in the alleged fraud.

Break Up Big Tech!

Lawmakers on both sides of the political spectrum can’t wait to regulate evil Silicon Valley companies.

Get Your Grubby Government Hands Off Information

Nobody likes being manipulated. Yet, do we want the grubby hands of government all over free speech and information? Most of all, does this mean we have to pass laws controlling big tech? Seems like closing the barn door after the horses have escaped.

Bring On The Disruption

Seems like the digital revolution has effected media and politics lately. In addition the interest in regulation in this area is increasing. What if we accelerated the disruption instead?

Who’s to Blame? Where’s the Mirror

In conclusion, a question. Are individual citizens are responsible for themselves? If we get our news from social media and then become confused or feel controlled, maybe we ought to be looking in the mirror. Furthermore, politics is a dirty business. Operatives are always looking for an edge. Finally, while not excusing any illegal behavior, maybe we are all part of the problem rather than the solution.

We’re In Charge Of Our Own Culture

Consequently, it might be time to start taking responsibility for what we believe and the decisions we make.

Sponsored by Ryan Plumbing of Saint Paul

FaceBook’s Very Bad No Good Data Breach Elected A Bad Person-Something Must Be Done-Podcast 708

 

Russia Trump Clinton Election Hack Fireside-Podcast 673

Political junkies and those confused by coverage of the Russia Hack story listen up. Russia Trump Clinton Election Hack Fireside-Podcast 673 is for you.

Players Play and Hackers Hack

The election hack is probably the most successful intelligence operation in history. Furthermore if the hackers wanted to sow mistrust and division between Americans, they succeeded. Most noteworthy, if the hackers wanted Americans to mistrust their political system and lose faith in a future president, they were wildly successful.

Three Little Story Lines One Bear

I’ll break all three of the especially relevant story lines down in Russia Trump Clinton Election Hack Fireside-Podcast 673. The so called ‘Russian Hack’, the ‘Russian Dossier’ and the Hillary Clinton email server hack. There’s plenty of historical precedent for explosive documents causing mischief.

New Developments Get Clicks and Shares

Breaking News from The Washington post says the Clinton campaign and democrats paid for the infamous Russian Dossier. Does this mean President Trump and his campaign is off the hook? Find out in Russia Trump Clinton Election Hack Fireside-Podcast 673. If you want to read the actual dossier in question, click here.

This Isn’t Going Away

In addition it seems like both sides have lost their minds on this one. Due to new developments should democrats hang their heads? Should republicans scream in victory? Let’s put it this way, it’s a marathon not an event. The Russia story isn’t likely to go away anytime soon.

Someone Stole The Cookies From The Cookie Jar

In conclusion, it’s clear someone was actively intervening in the 2016 Presidential election in the United States. Most noteworthy is the fact that no allegations have been proven yet. I wonder why people on the right do not seem to want to know the truth of the matter. I marvel at the left’s willingness to convict and punish someone because of a mere allegation.

Partisan Free Zone

It’s about time someone lays all this out so we can all know where things stand right now. In Russia Trump Clinton Election Hack Fireside-Podcast 673 I do not tell you what to believe. There are no demands for listeners to adhere to an ideology. A breath of fresh air in this media environment if I don’t say so myself.

Sponsored by Reliafund and Ryan Plumbing and Heating of Saint Paul

Russia Trump Clinton Election Hack Fireside-Podcast 673

 

 

 

 

 

Podcast 570-Election 2016 Results

Podcast 570-Election 2016 Results. Comprehensive analysis and minute by minute vote totals for Election 2016. How do podcasters cover presidential elections in real time without being live on the air, and without streaming? Podcast 570-Election 2016 Results shows you how. Follow along as I experience the election in real time on November 8th, 2016. The world seems surprised at news that Donald J. Trump has won the presidential election in The United States. Podcast 570 and Podcast 569 are meant to be listened to as companion podcasts. Since I did not endorse either candidate, I was able to provide objective analysis and experience the race objectively. Podcast 569 broke down the final poll data for the state by state races, avoiding any analysis of the national presidential preference polls. This minimized the surprise for anyone subscribing to the Bob Davis Podcasts, because you already knew no one could comfortably call this race. That did not stop the charlatans in talk radio, cable news and on line from attaching probabilities, or calling the race for one or the other. Not only was this race surprising overall, it was surprising on the state by state level. For the most part though, the state by state polls were either close to the totals in some cases, or within the margin of error. The US election is a state by state election, with the electoral college actually choosing the president on or about the 15th of December. In this hour plus long podcast I’m joined by friends, and family on the phone as well as a late night visit from local Minnesota Politico and web developer Mitch Rossow. At the close of this podcast we’re still waiting for Michigan and Minnesota returns to come in. I’ll have to update those on the next podcast. With Republicans retaining the Senate and the House majorities, and now winning the Presidency, now it is a question of the way forward. We’ll be talking about these issues and more on future podcasts. Pundits like to say the country is divided. What they might say is we can now agree on one thing. The worst election in recent memory is now, mercifully, over. And, tomorrow is another day, after all. Sponsored by Ryan Plumbing and Heating and X Government Cars.

Podcast 560-Bob Davis Podcasts Radio Show-48

Podcast 560-Bob Davis Podcasts Radio Show-48. Live from Garberville, California which I keep referring to as Gerberville in the radio show, so my apologies to the people of Garberville. Coming down out of the mountains in heavy, driving rain for three days will turn your brain to mush. Podcast 560-Bob Davis Podcasts Radio Show-48 is live with brand new content for podcast subscribers. When traveling you have to make adjustments as long trips begin to take on a life of their own. There’s a life lesson there. Maybe there’s a political lesson too. 2016’s presidential campaign has taken on a surreal life of its own. We will be left to pick up the pieces. GOP leadership could have allowed a floor fight in Cleveland which might have yielded better national candidates, but the establishment instead chose power over principle. Has the Republican Party lost its moorings? Is it breaking up on the rocks? You’re supposed to be loyal and vote for Trump so Hillary Clinton doesn’t appoint liberal supreme court justices. Really? Reagan appointed Justice Kennedy and George W. Bush appointed Chief Justice Roberts. Roberts opened the constitutional gate for ObamaCare. Should Trump win the presidency, with the possibility of a democrat senate, nominating judges who pass the ‘conservative litmus test’ will be increasingly difficult. I think the right has lost its reason and its ability to make the powerful economic arguments that used to make it attractive to the middle class. With a morally bankrupt leadership that can’t decide whether to endorse, withdraw endorsement, endorse again or just tell people to vote for Trump ‘because, you know…’ that is pretty much all she wrote for the Grand Old Party. The question is whether the republican rank and file, drunk on rhetorical arguments for every issue, will be able to do the hard work necessary to build a new party. Meanwhile, the GOP is losing women, and struggles to attract younger or minority voters. This show only scratches the surface of how sad it is to watch an old friend die of a terminal disease. Sponsored by Ryan Plumbing and Heating of Saint Paul.[powepress]