Art-Of-Politics-Polling-Prediction-Bob Davis Podcast 935

Updating Current Political Polls

Firstly Art-Of-Politics-Polling-Prediction-Bob Davis Podcast 935 is part of a series of podcasts updating current polls for 2020.

No Blanket Statements

Secondly I tend to avoid blanket statements when it comes to political polls.

Politics is An Art

Finally I believe despite all the technology we have politics is still an art.

No Silver Bullet For Predictions

Even more there is no application or spreadsheet that can ‘predict’ an outcome based on polls.

Probabilities

In short we can only look at probabilities.

Snapshots

Polls are snapshots in real time.

Shocking Confusion When It Comes To Polls

Meanwhile pundits and commentators continue to display a shocking confusion when it comes to understanding political polling.

Out and Out Bias

Most importantly some are ‘in the tank’ for one or the other candidate.

National Polls A Disservice To Supporters of Both Candidates

Consequently all of this political chatter and predictions does a disservice to supporters of all candidates.

Your Own Reality Check

On the other hand what if I can show you how to do your own reality check on your smart phone whenever you hear some wild prediction of a ‘landslide’ for either candidate.

That’s what Art-Of-Politics-Polling-Prediction-Bob Davis Podcast 935 is all about.

Still All About Showing Up

In conclusion if we have learned anything over the years, it is politics still belongs to those who show up.

State By State Battleground

Working hard down to the election is always the best approach. National polls are useless as the popular vote does not determine the presidency in the US.

Stay With The Bob Davis Podcasts

To sum up stay with me for a clear eyed view of the state by state polling results so that you’re not shocked and surprised on election night. Anything is possible, but right now it’s still a close race.

(Editor’s Note: As I recorded this podcast new polls were being released and results uploaded. As of the date of this post, the new polls have not changed my conclusion that 2020 will be close based on tight races in battleground states. I’ll do another podcast after the next spate of polls and we’ll see how things change. The good news is, if you listen to this podcast you’ll know how to update yourself when new polls come out.)

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Art-Of-Politics-Polling-Prediction-Bob Davis Podcast 935

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Landslide-Trump-Zombie-Dreams-Bob Davis Podcast 848

Unicorns and Rainbows For Trump Zombies

They call them ‘Trump Zombies‘. These days, to them, whatever he does is golden. The president’s fanboys are now claiming he will easily win the 2020 election by a landslide. What are the chances? In Landslide-Trump-Zombie-Dreams-Bob Davis Podcast 848.

Pundits Already See 2020’s Outcome

It’s more than a year from the 2020 election. The commentators and pundits are already telling us what will happen. Moreover their predictions are nothing more than wishful thinking.

Landslide. Really?

I’ll start with actual vote totals rather than early polls. Moreover I’ll talk about what a ‘landslide victory‘ is. Finally, what even an electoral landslide victory for the president would be built on.

Pundits On Rich Guy’s Dole

Certainly these pundits and commentators are on a rich political operator’s payroll. They’re voices are not their own.

I Know You’re Lying Cause Your Lips Are Moving

It’s most noteworthy that the things the people on TV and Talk Radio say often end up in the discourse. Especially when they’re telling you what you want to hear, which is when their lips are moving. Especially relevant is, people don’t know how to fact check the steady flow of nonsense that passes for ‘news’ in America. Even the fact checkers.

Independent Voices

As a result it is left to independent voices like me to go through the so called ‘battleground states‘ and examine vote totals from 2016, and review vote totals and turn out for 2018 to get closer to an answer to the question, could Trump achieve a landslide victory in 2020? That’s what I do in Landslide-Trump-Zombie-Dreams-Bob Davis Podcast 848.

It’s Votes Not Passion

In conclusion it depends on votes. Not passion. Not polls. Pundits don’t decide who wins. It’s easy to call a winner when the president is one of the known factors and the other team hasn’t picked a standard bearer.

Trump Zombies In Barcaloungers

Trump’s Zombie Army ought to plan on a lot of door knocking and hard political work if they want to win by a landslide.

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Landslide-Trump-Zombie-Dreams-Bob Davis Podcast 848

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Storm Chaser Valhalla-National Weather Service Norman-Podcast 636

Blue skies and sunshine on this Storm Chasing Trip. With no storms, it’s a good time to visit the National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center at Norman, Oklahoma. The National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center is where where all severe weather predictions and updates originate. We’ll go in inside, In Storm Chaser Valhalla-National Weather Service Norman-Podcast 636.

Storm Chaser Valhalla

Storm Chasers use information that originates at Norman. Why? Doppler Radar was developed here. Scientists in Kansas City spent springs here back in the day, to research storms. There was a naval air station here. So, there was plenty of room to locate a brand new radar system.

NEXRAD

Doppler Radar has been a game changer since its inception in the 1990’s. NEXRAD changed and continues to change how the world learns about severe weather. In Storm Chaser Valhalla-National Weather Service Norman-Podcast 636.

Secure Facility

The radar control center is in a secure building shared by several government agencies. One of those agencies is the department of defense. Needless to say, I could not get into this facility. Persistence pays off and after a few calls, NOAA Public Affairs Specialist Keli Pirtle invited me to come over to the National Weather Service’s Storm Prediction Center. Storm Chaser Valhalla-National Weather Service Norman-Podcast 636.

Weather Geek Out

It’s all about weather geeks. Thanks to Keli Pirtle for inviting me in on short notice and for the history lesson. How did the radar system get built at Norman? Finally, Warning Coordination Meteorologist Patrick Marsh gives us complete rundown of how the National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center works. Plus some stories about what it is like in this center when major weather is breaking.

Storm Chasers

The idea behind tax payer funded NEXRAD is data products should be available to everyone, and this is one of the reasons we get radar and other NWS products on our smartphones. However, severe weather can be unpredictable. A town, person or chaser can be right under a tornado and not be able to to see it until it’s too late. While the National Weather Service does not have an official position on Storm Chasing Even the National Weather Service is not immune as you will hear. Be Safe.

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Storm Chaser Valhalla-National Weather Service Norman-Podcast 636

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