Victory Becomes Defeat-Big Mouth Loses-Bob Davis Podcast 776

A week after the midterms Democrats add to their wins. Moreover recounts could mean two governor and one more senate loss for the GOP. Throw in the Arizona Senate loss and you have to wonder. This is victory? In Victory Becomes Defeat-Big Mouth Loses-Bob Davis Podcast 776.

Not A Bad Performance For Democrats

32 House seats at minimum, 7 or more governors and several state legislatures is not a bad performance for an opposition party in a midterm.

May Be More Democrat Wins Coming

In addition recounts in Florida and Georgia may produce two more governorships and a senate hold for democrats. Pretty hard for Trump to claim victory now.

It Could Have Been Avoided

As I said in election night, republicans could have avoided this. More in Victory Becomes Defeat-Big Mouth Loses-Bob Davis Podcast 776.

Apologists Make Excuses

Already GOP apologists say the polls are biased, and they’re pointing fingers and making excuses. Especially relevant are complaints about recounts and money poured into negative advertising. This was a surprise?

Where Were The Big Republican Donors?

Finally 2018 saw the highest voter turn out of any midterm election in fifty years. Democrats cobbled together close wins across the country by turning out their voters. Why couldn’t the NRCC do the same? Where were the big republican donors? What happened  to Trump’s big margins because of all the rallies? Find out in Victory Becomes Defeat-Big Mouth Loses-Bob Davis Podcast 776.

Better Than Hillary Is Not A Plan

In conclusion in my opinion “Better than Hillary“, waving the constitution and shouting “Build The Wall” is not a plan for the future. So called conservatives might not like the democrat plan but at least they had one. A plan beats no plan.

Big Mouth and Milquetoast

In the end a big mouth and milquetoast moderate republicanism isn’t enough to build on. I remain deeply disillusioned with both political parties but republicans disillusion me the most. In the last two years the GOP added trillions to the debt, failed to repeal the ACA and has relied too much on Trump’s mouth.

Maybe republicans got what they deserved.

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Victory Becomes Defeat-Big Mouth Loses-Bob Davis Podcast 776

Real Time 2018 Election Results-Live-Bob Davis Podcast 774

These days election results in real time without BS is a tall order. Experience the results in real time with me in Real Time 2018 Election Results-Live-Bob Davis Podcast 774.

Working America Into A Froth

It’s especially relevant how the media and politicians managed to work most of America into a froth for this election. Democrats regained control of the House of Representatives. Republicans did better than predicted in the Senate. The GOP also managed to surprise in a couple of governor’s races.

How Predictions Stack Up To Results

It’s Most noteworthy how results stacked up to the predictions. I see it this way. Democrats managed to cobble together a few pick ups in house races here and there into a majority. Republicans could have prevented some of these losses. What happened? How could the GOP manage to increase it’s majority in the senate but lose it in the house?

Minnesota Republicans Got The 8th District As Consolation Prize

Moreover for my Minnesota subscribers and listeners, there were major losses for incumbent republicans in the 2nd and 3rd House districts, all the statewide races and the state legislature. The consolation was one of the few republican pick ups in the House is Minnesota’s 8th district.

Blue Wave?

Was it a blue wave? My analysis says no. Democrats won some hard fought victories in key house races to control the house but they failed to win key governor’s races and lost ground in the Senate. More details in Real Time 2018 Election Results-Live-Bob Davis Podcast 774.

Some Outcomes Still Out

I am still waiting on the outcome of key races. Just learning the Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker has lost his bid for a third term, and waiting for some House races, Senate bids in Arizona and Montana. In coming days there will be plenty of post analysis, celebration and blame to go around.

Hard Drives Humming and Pizza

In conclusion there’s still something about a quiet night at the Broadcast Bunker. Results came from the Internet. The hum of hard drives and processors kept me company.

(Editor’s Note: A late development Monday in Minnesota. Republicans can add another pick up with Jim Hagedorn’s victory in Southern Minnesota’s 1st District. Minnesota republicans managed to lose all the statewide races and the state House of Representatives, making victories in the 8th and 1st even more bittersweet.)

And we had pizza

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Real Time 2018 Election Results-Live-Bob Davis Podcast 774

Photo Finish-Down To The Wire-Election 2018-Podcast 767

With just about two weeks to go until election day 2018 polls are showing tighter races. Suddenly the narratives and storylines the media loves are thrown to the wind. Find out what’s changing in Photo Finish-Down To The Wire-Election 2018-Podcast 767.

Listen To The Election 2018 Series

Especially relevant are the series of podcasts I did looking into all the so called ‘toss up races’. What I found is detailed in that series. Listen to those podcasts here.

House Senate and Governor’s Elections Are Tightening

In addition what I suggested in my series on the midterms is many of these house, senate and governor’s elections would be close anyway. Sure enough across the country polls show tightening races as we come down to the wire.

Media Bias?

Are media elites in Washington and New York City operating from a world view that sees the possibility of a so called ‘blue wave‘ election when there hasn’t been much evidence to support this view? Find out in Photo Finish-Down To The Wire-Election 2018-Podcast 767.

A Primer on Polls. Again.

Finally there are the polls. In this free wheeling podcast I give subscribers and listeners another quick primer on the polls. Polls do not ‘predict’. Polls do not ‘say’. Closer elections make it more difficult for pollsters to ‘predict’ outcomes.

One Poll To Watch Out For

The New York Times/Sienna College poll is singled out in this podcast as problematic. This poll is showing wide variances in its results for candidates in Tennessee, Minnesota and many other places. Should democrats and republicans believe this particular poll. In the absence of any other polls to trend I would tell my listeners to be very dubious of this poll. I’ll tell you why in Photo Finish-Down To The Wire-Election 2018-Podcast 767.

In conclusion the mad rush to analyze the impact of news events on the election, on a day to day basis, is probably a mistake.

This one is going down to the wire to a photo finish!

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Photo Finish-Down To The Wire-Election 2018-Podcast 767

Conventional Wisdom-Election 2018 Follies-Podcast 764

These days it always pays to wait for an outcome before you predict the future. With the confirmation of Brett Cavanaugh to the US Supreme Court we have an outcome. Now comes an avalanche of predictions about the court fight’s impact on the election. Find out why I say ignore the prognosticators in Conventional Wisdom-Election 2018 Follies-Podcast 764.

Bottom line, elections belong to the people who vote. Not tea leaves

Most noteworthy in 2018 are several US Senate Elections. Moreover scores of House elections are very close.

Blue Wave. Wait! Red Wave! No Wait! Blue Wave

What’s the media telling the American people? It’s a ‘blue’ wave fueled by young adults and women angry at the treatment of Christine Ford, nemesis of the former court nominee. Don’t like that story line? Guess what? Republican voters are seething and will go out and vote again democrats in droves. So say the story tellers.

Not Enough Data

In contrast to the nonsense being spewed by now famous political ‘scientists’ no one knows who’s actually going to vote. Polls are scanty and some shoddily conducted. Another factor is the fact that determining who will vote and why is truly an art. In other words, no one knows. It’s about time someone explains it’s hard to say what will happen on November 6th, without picking sides.

Quick! Who’s Your Congressman?

Truth is midterm voter turn out is lower than presidential years. Many people don’t even know who their congressman is. National issues don’t always drive elections. Almost all the House districts that aren’t gerrymandered are close. And somehow one national story is going to drive the results of all these elections? Are they toss ups that can go either way? Are these close races evidence of a blue wave? Find out in Conventional Wisdom-Election 2018 Follies-Podcast 764.

Coverage Of Politics In This Country is Terrible

In conclusion I am driven to do another political podcast I did not want to do. Why? Because most of what passes for political coverage in this country is terrible. Too many predictions. Lots of bias. Mostly telling both sides what they want to hear. Finally someone who tells it like it is and waits for election day to judge the outcome.

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Conventional Wisdom-Election 2018 Follies-Podcast 764

 

2018 Toss Up Elections-Final Thoughts-Podcast 758

The 2018 Midterm election season has been most noteworthy for its twists and turns. Now as we head into the final month of the campaigns, find out what to look for on election day in 2018 Toss Up Elections-Final Thoughts-Podcast 758.

Media Cherry Picks Stats

Then there’s the media’s habit of cherry picking statistics. They call it ‘political coverage’. Statistics prove the story line. Damn lies convince us none of this has ever happened before.

Predictions of Doom

The president’s approval rating has never been worse. Voters have never been more fired up. If things continue the way they are now, terrible outcomes are inevitable. The president’s political party always loses seats in a midterm. Are these predictions of doom true? Learn more in 2018 Toss Up Elections-Final Thoughts-Podcast 758.

Polls Don’t Lie. The Media Lies

Finally, in my experience making predictions about statewide and house elections based on national polls and baselines is problematic although some research suggests they may be reliable predictors in midterm elections. There just isn’t enough information to say one way or another what will happen. That’s why we wait and see what the vote actually turns out to be.

Labels and Beliefs

Meanwhile these days we’re awash in labels and broadly held beliefs in pure nonsense. So and so is a “transformational figure”. A “disaster” has changed voting in a district or state forever.

Be The Change

I believe it’s time to change how we cover politics and I am putting my podcasts where my mouth is in this series on the midterm election toss ups. A close look at the data. A fair shake for the candidates. Letting the listeners and subscribers decide for themselves. Putting all the data in the podcasts so you can compare on election night. That’s what it’s all about for The Bob Davis Podcasts for Election 2018 coverage.

In conclusion, through all of it, I have to say I have no idea what will happen on November 6th, 2018, and neither does anyone else.

That’s up to you.

Sponsored by Johantgen Jewelers and Reliafund Payment Processing

2018 Toss Up Elections-Final Thoughts-Podcast 758

 

 

 

 

2018 Senate Toss Up Races-Polls-Bob Davis Podcast 751

These days political coverage turns elections into sporting events. My mission is to provide political coverage without making predictions. Let’s start with the Senate in 2018 Senate Toss Up Races-Polls-Bob Davis Podcast 751.

November 6th 2018

First of all throughout this podcast I refer to election day as November 7th 2018. In fact it’s November 6th, 2018. Until election day, many of the questions people have about outcomes will remain unanswered. I’ll tell you why.

Statewide Races

Furthermore commentators love to make national predictions. It’s important to remember these are individual state elections. Despite efforts by the media to make you think these are national elections, they aren’t. They’re local elections. Find out more in 2018 Senate Toss Up Races-Polls-Bob Davis Podcast 751.

The Stakes Are High

Especially relevant are the stakes. The future of Donald Trump’s presidency is in the balance with these Midterm Elections regardless of the local and national issues driving them.  Much of the coverage of the 2018 midterm elections hinges on this truth.

Key Races

What it comes down to are about 6 or 7 key races in various states around the country. As we get closer to election day (November 6th 2018, by the way) the line up of so called toss up races might change.

Holding The Majority

Republicans currently hold 50 seats in the US Senate with one vacant seat. Democrats hold 48. 2 Independents caucus with democrats giving them 49 votes potentially. With Vice President Mike Pence, the republicans can count on a 51 seat majority.

Arizona’s governor will appoint a replacement for the late John McCain, giving the republicans a potential 52 vote majority.

Will republicans hold that majority?

Making Useless Predictions

Finally I am so tired of hearing these know it alls making predictions based on primary vote results and conventional wisdom. As you’ll hear in 2018 Senate Toss Up Races-Polls-Bob Davis Podcast 751 polling is pretty thin in some key races. It’s about time someone covered the story without telling you who’s going to win.

Trump’s Twitter Feed

In conclusion we’ll cover about 7 senate races worth talking about. Will the president’s twitter feed and rally machine help republicans or hurt them?

As far as predictions, I remember a sports writer’s response when I asked him which team was going to win the big game Sunday. He said “That’s why we play the game!”

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2018 Senate Toss Up Races-Polls-Bob Davis Podcast 751

 

2018 House Toss Up Races-Story Lines-Predictions-Part 2-Podcast 717

Continuing to run down the toss up races in the 2018 midterm elections for the US House. The big story line? A democrat wave will wrest control of the house from the republicans. In 2018 House Toss Up Races-Story Lines-Predictions-Part 2-Podcast 717.

From The Midwest Across To The Atlantic Coast

Kansas and Nebraska. East of the Mississippi to Iowa. Minnesota which has some of the closest House races in the country. Illinois in the northern suburbs, and the Land of Lincoln’s southern tip. Across to New York, Georgia, New Hampshire and more.

All About Political Junkies

The second of two parts of a mega podcasting effort for political junkies and subscribers who just want someone to objectively run down all the races in one spot. We’ll challenge some of the myths and tell you why some pundits say this year is a game changer. In 2018 House Toss Up Races-Story Lines-Predictions-Part 2-Podcast 717.

These days the biggest problem with the media is its penchant for trying to predict the future. Americans are ill served because of this problem. Expectations become truth. Final outcomes turn out to be much harder to predict. Democrats learned this the hard way in 2016’s presidential race.

Republicans Defending The Most Toss Up Seats

Especially relevant is the fact that as a political agnostic, I’m not afraid to tell you there is almost no polling to speak of, despite all the efforts to predict the outcome of 435 House Races. To be sure, the republicans are defending most of the toss up seats.

Why Democrats Believe This Will Be A Wave

Moreover after spending two days poring over election data and reading about local issues and personalties, I can tell you why democrats believe this will be a ‘wave’ election. Do their hopes have any basis in reality? Well. Listen and find out. In 2018 House Toss Up Races-Story Lines-Predictions-Part 2-Podcast 717.

With the Midterms 7 months away, anything can happen. Moreover primaries in some races will determine the tactical situation in many of the House districts in question. Both parties are furiously trying to raise enough money to compete. Will they be able to commit the resources they’re famous for in the special elections that grabbed all the headlines lately?

All Politics Is Local

That’s the old saying. What are the local issues, personalties and unique characteristics of places we don’t think very much about unless its our home? How many of those out of the way places may have an election that determines the future of our country? Check out 2018 House Toss Up Races-Story Lines-Predictions-Part 2-Podcast 717 and let’s talk. For the same kind of analysis on the US Senate Toss Up races, go here.

Sponsored by Reliafund Payment Processors and Ryan Plumbing and Heating of Saint Paul

2018 House Toss Up Races-Story Lines-Predictions-Part 2-Podcast 717

Podcast 546

Podcast 546-What Is Next? Almost all media these days is advocacy journalism. It used to be called ‘yellow journalism’. Back in the day yellow journalism was characterized by newspaper publishers like William Randolph Hearst who, when an artist he’d sent to Cuba cabled Hearst the fact that the USS Maine had blown up because of an accident, famously replied, “You supply the pictures, I’ll supply the war!” Everywhere we turn these days we are bombarded with the surface arguments. The personalities, the propaganda, the arguing back and forth. It goes far beyond media bias. It has become media advocacy. Telling you and I who to vote for and why. Telling us what we are to believe in and what our country stands for, and why. It’s a fact of life on both sides of the fence. We end up going back and forth about nonsense, most of the time. For me to add to this noise, seems to be a waste of time. Of course I have my own point of view about politics these days, and I’ll try and save most of those observations for podcasts detailing state by state polls, or addressing specific issues when they need to be addressed. How you vote, who you vote for and why you vote the way you do is your business. The easy thing to do these days is turn on the microphone and bloviate about what happened on the campaign trail today. It is much harder to find something to discuss that goes beyond. Hence Podcast 546-What Is Next? How can we move to the next step in the country and the world. Not what happens after election day 2016, or Inauguration Day 2017. This question deals with what happens down the line. If we spent a fraction of our time actually trying to inform ourselves about issues we can know about, rather than consuming propaganda, we would be better citizens and better stewards of the future for the country. The answers to the things we can know about, aren’t in social media or even necessarily searchable. The answers are in libraries. We can’t be fully informed about an issue if we don’t even know what questions to search. So let’s get started answering the question, What’s Next? Sponsored by Ryan Plumbing and Heating of Saint Paul and Hydrus Performance.

Podcast 518

Skyfall. Last week’s vote by Britain to exit the European Zone provoked some of the most hysterical media coverage of an international news story I’ve seen in a long time. To begin with, there was little detailed coverage before the vote. Things we would need to know after the vote, like whether it was binding, how long it would take to negotiate an exit, what trade agreements might be effected, the defense agreements Britain has with other nations, the economic condition of the EU, Britain’s economic contribution to the EU in general, the percentage of the UK’s GDP accounted for in European Trade and so on. Then there is the issue of the world media being ‘on board’ with the remain vote, or at the very least reporting the story line that ‘leave’ would not pass. Consequently, no one was more surprised by a leave vote victory than the perfumed princes sitting in their air conditioned studios. If Skyfall was the fictional last resort of the embattled James Bond in the movie of the same name, watching anchors and pundits tear their hair out, one would think England is heading to Skyfall as we speak! Perhaps the EU’s unelected ‘leaders’ should be the ones heading to Skyfall. ‘Markets Crash’, the media moaned. From a distance, one might be forgiven for believing ‘The End Of The World’ is indeed near. Better head to Skyfall as a last resort! All is lost. The Leave Victory has jostled the carefully constructed ‘citizen of the world’ senses of a younger generation that apparently does not know the world existed before the EU. Well, the truth is the markets will regain their composure. In fact the British Pound recovered to pre-vote levels the Friday after the vote. It’s a tough thing to hear, but the EU has had problems for some time now, specifically the EURO, as southern Europe’s spendthrift policies have led them to demand relief from Northern Europe. Add to that trouble with the ECB, unpopular regulation and a failure to do anything about the Syrian refugee problem, and one wonders whether the EU hadn’t better clean up its act. Maybe Merry Old England delivered a slap in the face to the velvet suited technocrats, so they would go about getting their proverbial act together. Yes, there are real concerns going forward; What trade deals have to be renegotiated? While defense pacts like NATO really aren’t subject to EU control, there are concerns about defense issues and what about the idea of a strong European Community to foster cooperation and peace, to serve as a counterweight to an expansionist Russia, as well as China. There’s a lot to be worked out, but it isn’t the end of the world. The fact is, we are entering a new time, a new day, with new ideas and concerns. People may not have the language to describe their discontent and even disgust with over controlling governments, the edicts of unelected technocrats who spite ‘the great unwashed’, at their peril. When the winds of change blow, electorates have a funny habit of unpredictably lowering the boom on the haughty and confident. A new day indeed. Sponsored by Karow Contracting and Ryan Plumbing and Heating of Saint Paul. 

PODCAST 457

Donald J. Trump Authoritarian. If you are a Trump supporter you probably want to know, the left has decided you have ‘authoritarian tendencies’. What is an authoritarian? We can now name the New Yorker with confidence; Donald J Trump Authoritarian. What does it make you if you support Donald J. Trump Authoritarian? What does it mean to have Authoritarian ‘tendencies’. Is it a new fangled way to call you a fascist? Since it’s well known that the first person who brings up Hitler in an argument has lost the argument, and since the left has already tagged the New York business man as another Hitler, they have to come up with something new. While you’re guzzling white wine and picking at the brie at the local university cocktail party, and someone asks what you think of Trump you can simply say, “Well you know his supporters are a bit authoritarian, don’t you think?” Where is this coming from? A self described ‘Phd candidate’ and Massachusetts political consultant Matthew MacWilliams has done a study. His study and ‘simple’ statistical analysis shows Trump supporters to have these authoritarian tendencies. It’s not enough that Trump supporters supposedly have lower education levels (and therefore must be stupid), or hail from the Blue Collar side of the tracks (which used to be democrat territory, back in the day), now it appears the kind of government they like is a little more on the authoritarian side. Hey! There’s a study, so it must be true, right? The bottom line is, if Republicans vote the way the polls show, and it’s a big if, Donald J Trump is going to be the Republican nominee. It’s been pretty clear from the get go that Trump not only terrifies the republican establishment, apparently he also terrifies the socialist left, which if it isn’t busy trying to put you in the photo with Hitler and Eva, is busy coming up with clever new ways to say you’re a fascist. What are the origins of fascism? What are the conditions that have to be met before you can have fascism? Which part of the political spectrum is meeting those conditions? What kind of political system is susceptible to fascism? The answers might surprise you. Sponsored by Ryan Plumbing and Heating of Saint Paul and X Government Trucks.