Conventional Wisdom-Election 2018 Follies-Podcast 764

These days it always pays to wait for an outcome before you predict the future. With the confirmation of Brett Cavanaugh to the US Supreme Court we have an outcome. Now comes an avalanche of predictions about the court fight’s impact on the election. Find out why I say ignore the prognosticators in Conventional Wisdom-Election 2018 Follies-Podcast 764.

Bottom line, elections belong to the people who vote. Not tea leaves

Most noteworthy in 2018 are several US Senate Elections. Moreover scores of House elections are very close.

Blue Wave. Wait! Red Wave! No Wait! Blue Wave

What’s the media telling the American people? It’s a ‘blue’ wave fueled by young adults and women angry at the treatment of Christine Ford, nemesis of the former court nominee. Don’t like that story line? Guess what? Republican voters are seething and will go out and vote again democrats in droves. So say the story tellers.

Not Enough Data

In contrast to the nonsense being spewed by now famous political ‘scientists’ no one knows who’s actually going to vote. Polls are scanty and some shoddily conducted. Another factor is the fact that determining who will vote and why is truly an art. In other words, no one knows. It’s about time someone explains it’s hard to say what will happen on November 6th, without picking sides.

Quick! Who’s Your Congressman?

Truth is midterm voter turn out is lower than presidential years. Many people don’t even know who their congressman is. National issues don’t always drive elections. Almost all the House districts that aren’t gerrymandered are close. And somehow one national story is going to drive the results of all these elections? Are they toss ups that can go either way? Are these close races evidence of a blue wave? Find out in Conventional Wisdom-Election 2018 Follies-Podcast 764.

Coverage Of Politics In This Country is Terrible

In conclusion I am driven to do another political podcast I did not want to do. Why? Because most of what passes for political coverage in this country is terrible. Too many predictions. Lots of bias. Mostly telling both sides what they want to hear. Finally someone who tells it like it is and waits for election day to judge the outcome.

Sponsored by Water Butler Water Purification Systems and Johantgen Jewelers

Conventional Wisdom-Election 2018 Follies-Podcast 764

 

2018 Toss Up Elections-Final Thoughts-Podcast 758

The 2018 Midterm election season has been most noteworthy for its twists and turns. Now as we head into the final month of the campaigns, find out what to look for on election day in 2018 Toss Up Elections-Final Thoughts-Podcast 758.

Media Cherry Picks Stats

Then there’s the media’s habit of cherry picking statistics. They call it ‘political coverage’. Statistics prove the story line. Damn lies convince us none of this has ever happened before.

Predictions of Doom

The president’s approval rating has never been worse. Voters have never been more fired up. If things continue the way they are now, terrible outcomes are inevitable. The president’s political party always loses seats in a midterm. Are these predictions of doom true? Learn more in 2018 Toss Up Elections-Final Thoughts-Podcast 758.

Polls Don’t Lie. The Media Lies

Finally, in my experience making predictions about statewide and house elections based on national polls and baselines is problematic although some research suggests they may be reliable predictors in midterm elections. There just isn’t enough information to say one way or another what will happen. That’s why we wait and see what the vote actually turns out to be.

Labels and Beliefs

Meanwhile these days we’re awash in labels and broadly held beliefs in pure nonsense. So and so is a “transformational figure”. A “disaster” has changed voting in a district or state forever.

Be The Change

I believe it’s time to change how we cover politics and I am putting my podcasts where my mouth is in this series on the midterm election toss ups. A close look at the data. A fair shake for the candidates. Letting the listeners and subscribers decide for themselves. Putting all the data in the podcasts so you can compare on election night. That’s what it’s all about for The Bob Davis Podcasts for Election 2018 coverage.

In conclusion, through all of it, I have to say I have no idea what will happen on November 6th, 2018, and neither does anyone else.

That’s up to you.

Sponsored by Johantgen Jewelers and Reliafund Payment Processing

2018 Toss Up Elections-Final Thoughts-Podcast 758

 

 

 

 

2018 Senate Toss Up Races-Polls-Bob Davis Podcast 751

These days political coverage turns elections into sporting events. My mission is to provide political coverage without making predictions. Let’s start with the Senate in 2018 Senate Toss Up Races-Polls-Bob Davis Podcast 751.

November 6th 2018

First of all throughout this podcast I refer to election day as November 7th 2018. In fact it’s November 6th, 2018. Until election day, many of the questions people have about outcomes will remain unanswered. I’ll tell you why.

Statewide Races

Furthermore commentators love to make national predictions. It’s important to remember these are individual state elections. Despite efforts by the media to make you think these are national elections, they aren’t. They’re local elections. Find out more in 2018 Senate Toss Up Races-Polls-Bob Davis Podcast 751.

The Stakes Are High

Especially relevant are the stakes. The future of Donald Trump’s presidency is in the balance with these Midterm Elections regardless of the local and national issues driving them.  Much of the coverage of the 2018 midterm elections hinges on this truth.

Key Races

What it comes down to are about 6 or 7 key races in various states around the country. As we get closer to election day (November 6th 2018, by the way) the line up of so called toss up races might change.

Holding The Majority

Republicans currently hold 50 seats in the US Senate with one vacant seat. Democrats hold 48. 2 Independents caucus with democrats giving them 49 votes potentially. With Vice President Mike Pence, the republicans can count on a 51 seat majority.

Arizona’s governor will appoint a replacement for the late John McCain, giving the republicans a potential 52 vote majority.

Will republicans hold that majority?

Making Useless Predictions

Finally I am so tired of hearing these know it alls making predictions based on primary vote results and conventional wisdom. As you’ll hear in 2018 Senate Toss Up Races-Polls-Bob Davis Podcast 751 polling is pretty thin in some key races. It’s about time someone covered the story without telling you who’s going to win.

Trump’s Twitter Feed

In conclusion we’ll cover about 7 senate races worth talking about. Will the president’s twitter feed and rally machine help republicans or hurt them?

As far as predictions, I remember a sports writer’s response when I asked him which team was going to win the big game Sunday. He said “That’s why we play the game!”

Sponsored by Ryan Plumbing and Heating Of Saint Paul

2018 Senate Toss Up Races-Polls-Bob Davis Podcast 751

 

2018 House Toss Up Races-Story Lines-Predictions-Part 2-Podcast 717

Continuing to run down the toss up races in the 2018 midterm elections for the US House. The big story line? A democrat wave will wrest control of the house from the republicans. In 2018 House Toss Up Races-Story Lines-Predictions-Part 2-Podcast 717.

From The Midwest Across To The Atlantic Coast

Kansas and Nebraska. East of the Mississippi to Iowa. Minnesota which has some of the closest House races in the country. Illinois in the northern suburbs, and the Land of Lincoln’s southern tip. Across to New York, Georgia, New Hampshire and more.

All About Political Junkies

The second of two parts of a mega podcasting effort for political junkies and subscribers who just want someone to objectively run down all the races in one spot. We’ll challenge some of the myths and tell you why some pundits say this year is a game changer. In 2018 House Toss Up Races-Story Lines-Predictions-Part 2-Podcast 717.

These days the biggest problem with the media is its penchant for trying to predict the future. Americans are ill served because of this problem. Expectations become truth. Final outcomes turn out to be much harder to predict. Democrats learned this the hard way in 2016’s presidential race.

Republicans Defending The Most Toss Up Seats

Especially relevant is the fact that as a political agnostic, I’m not afraid to tell you there is almost no polling to speak of, despite all the efforts to predict the outcome of 435 House Races. To be sure, the republicans are defending most of the toss up seats.

Why Democrats Believe This Will Be A Wave

Moreover after spending two days poring over election data and reading about local issues and personalties, I can tell you why democrats believe this will be a ‘wave’ election. Do their hopes have any basis in reality? Well. Listen and find out. In 2018 House Toss Up Races-Story Lines-Predictions-Part 2-Podcast 717.

With the Midterms 7 months away, anything can happen. Moreover primaries in some races will determine the tactical situation in many of the House districts in question. Both parties are furiously trying to raise enough money to compete. Will they be able to commit the resources they’re famous for in the special elections that grabbed all the headlines lately?

All Politics Is Local

That’s the old saying. What are the local issues, personalties and unique characteristics of places we don’t think very much about unless its our home? How many of those out of the way places may have an election that determines the future of our country? Check out 2018 House Toss Up Races-Story Lines-Predictions-Part 2-Podcast 717 and let’s talk. For the same kind of analysis on the US Senate Toss Up races, go here.

Sponsored by Reliafund Payment Processors and Ryan Plumbing and Heating of Saint Paul

2018 House Toss Up Races-Story Lines-Predictions-Part 2-Podcast 717

Podcast 546

Podcast 546-What Is Next? Almost all media these days is advocacy journalism. It used to be called ‘yellow journalism’. Back in the day yellow journalism was characterized by newspaper publishers like William Randolph Hearst who, when an artist he’d sent to Cuba cabled Hearst the fact that the USS Maine had blown up because of an accident, famously replied, “You supply the pictures, I’ll supply the war!” Everywhere we turn these days we are bombarded with the surface arguments. The personalities, the propaganda, the arguing back and forth. It goes far beyond media bias. It has become media advocacy. Telling you and I who to vote for and why. Telling us what we are to believe in and what our country stands for, and why. It’s a fact of life on both sides of the fence. We end up going back and forth about nonsense, most of the time. For me to add to this noise, seems to be a waste of time. Of course I have my own point of view about politics these days, and I’ll try and save most of those observations for podcasts detailing state by state polls, or addressing specific issues when they need to be addressed. How you vote, who you vote for and why you vote the way you do is your business. The easy thing to do these days is turn on the microphone and bloviate about what happened on the campaign trail today. It is much harder to find something to discuss that goes beyond. Hence Podcast 546-What Is Next? How can we move to the next step in the country and the world. Not what happens after election day 2016, or Inauguration Day 2017. This question deals with what happens down the line. If we spent a fraction of our time actually trying to inform ourselves about issues we can know about, rather than consuming propaganda, we would be better citizens and better stewards of the future for the country. The answers to the things we can know about, aren’t in social media or even necessarily searchable. The answers are in libraries. We can’t be fully informed about an issue if we don’t even know what questions to search. So let’s get started answering the question, What’s Next? Sponsored by Ryan Plumbing and Heating of Saint Paul and Hydrus Performance.

Podcast 518

Skyfall. Last week’s vote by Britain to exit the European Zone provoked some of the most hysterical media coverage of an international news story I’ve seen in a long time. To begin with, there was little detailed coverage before the vote. Things we would need to know after the vote, like whether it was binding, how long it would take to negotiate an exit, what trade agreements might be effected, the defense agreements Britain has with other nations, the economic condition of the EU, Britain’s economic contribution to the EU in general, the percentage of the UK’s GDP accounted for in European Trade and so on. Then there is the issue of the world media being ‘on board’ with the remain vote, or at the very least reporting the story line that ‘leave’ would not pass. Consequently, no one was more surprised by a leave vote victory than the perfumed princes sitting in their air conditioned studios. If Skyfall was the fictional last resort of the embattled James Bond in the movie of the same name, watching anchors and pundits tear their hair out, one would think England is heading to Skyfall as we speak! Perhaps the EU’s unelected ‘leaders’ should be the ones heading to Skyfall. ‘Markets Crash’, the media moaned. From a distance, one might be forgiven for believing ‘The End Of The World’ is indeed near. Better head to Skyfall as a last resort! All is lost. The Leave Victory has jostled the carefully constructed ‘citizen of the world’ senses of a younger generation that apparently does not know the world existed before the EU. Well, the truth is the markets will regain their composure. In fact the British Pound recovered to pre-vote levels the Friday after the vote. It’s a tough thing to hear, but the EU has had problems for some time now, specifically the EURO, as southern Europe’s spendthrift policies have led them to demand relief from Northern Europe. Add to that trouble with the ECB, unpopular regulation and a failure to do anything about the Syrian refugee problem, and one wonders whether the EU hadn’t better clean up its act. Maybe Merry Old England delivered a slap in the face to the velvet suited technocrats, so they would go about getting their proverbial act together. Yes, there are real concerns going forward; What trade deals have to be renegotiated? While defense pacts like NATO really aren’t subject to EU control, there are concerns about defense issues and what about the idea of a strong European Community to foster cooperation and peace, to serve as a counterweight to an expansionist Russia, as well as China. There’s a lot to be worked out, but it isn’t the end of the world. The fact is, we are entering a new time, a new day, with new ideas and concerns. People may not have the language to describe their discontent and even disgust with over controlling governments, the edicts of unelected technocrats who spite ‘the great unwashed’, at their peril. When the winds of change blow, electorates have a funny habit of unpredictably lowering the boom on the haughty and confident. A new day indeed. Sponsored by Karow Contracting and Ryan Plumbing and Heating of Saint Paul. 

PODCAST 457

Donald J. Trump Authoritarian. If you are a Trump supporter you probably want to know, the left has decided you have ‘authoritarian tendencies’. What is an authoritarian? We can now name the New Yorker with confidence; Donald J Trump Authoritarian. What does it make you if you support Donald J. Trump Authoritarian? What does it mean to have Authoritarian ‘tendencies’. Is it a new fangled way to call you a fascist? Since it’s well known that the first person who brings up Hitler in an argument has lost the argument, and since the left has already tagged the New York business man as another Hitler, they have to come up with something new. While you’re guzzling white wine and picking at the brie at the local university cocktail party, and someone asks what you think of Trump you can simply say, “Well you know his supporters are a bit authoritarian, don’t you think?” Where is this coming from? A self described ‘Phd candidate’ and Massachusetts political consultant Matthew MacWilliams has done a study. His study and ‘simple’ statistical analysis shows Trump supporters to have these authoritarian tendencies. It’s not enough that Trump supporters supposedly have lower education levels (and therefore must be stupid), or hail from the Blue Collar side of the tracks (which used to be democrat territory, back in the day), now it appears the kind of government they like is a little more on the authoritarian side. Hey! There’s a study, so it must be true, right? The bottom line is, if Republicans vote the way the polls show, and it’s a big if, Donald J Trump is going to be the Republican nominee. It’s been pretty clear from the get go that Trump not only terrifies the republican establishment, apparently he also terrifies the socialist left, which if it isn’t busy trying to put you in the photo with Hitler and Eva, is busy coming up with clever new ways to say you’re a fascist. What are the origins of fascism? What are the conditions that have to be met before you can have fascism? Which part of the political spectrum is meeting those conditions? What kind of political system is susceptible to fascism? The answers might surprise you. Sponsored by Ryan Plumbing and Heating of Saint Paul and X Government Trucks.

Podcast 424

Retail Politics. The 2016 presidential election cycle isn’t yet in the primaries, but campaigns have locked in their rhetoric. Speakers are throwing out red meat at small gatherings of potential voters and political actives across the country, especially in the early caucus and primary states. This podcast takes you inside a political event in Minnesota where a surrogate for the Ted Cruz For President Campaign — The Senator’s Father — makes a speech. Sorry? Did you think these events would include substance, discussion of the issues, details on how to achieve goals, and detailed analysis of opponents? Media focus, polling, ‘cattle call’ debates, a desperate need for money to fuel bare bones campaigns, and propel candidates to the top of the heap before a single vote has been cast, has all but destroyed ‘discussion’ and ‘substance’. It may be early, but it’s already all about firing up the hopeful, the political active, getting the contribution, getting people on the email list, jumping on the plane or bus, and heading to the next event. Even local supporters and state legislators at the event are ‘on message’. The problem with retail politics and red meat is, do people have any better idea of what the candidates actually will do? What is a conservative? What is the plan for the country and why? What do Republicans stand for? Listen and find out. Sponsored by X Government Trucks and Pride of Homes and Luke Team Real Estate. 

Podcast 398 – Sturgis Part 1

Political Escape To Surgis. The first installment of the Sturgis 2015 Road Trip begins. After a 500 mile road trip from Minneapolis-Saint Paul to Rapid City, South Dakota we arrive at the Harley Davidson Dealer in Rapid City. First order of business? Let’s get the political stuff out of the way because in Part 2, we head into Sturgis itself in Mobile Podcast Command Unit 8. Podcast 398 is posted on the day of the first ‘debate’ of the 2016 political cycle. Well, maybe we should call it a cage match, rather than a debate. Not a single vote has been cast, yet the rocket scientists at Fox News have decided to pick the ‘top ten’ candidates based on the political polls. (Editor’s Note: I gave listeners a good primer on the negatives and positives of political polls in Podcast 397.) This is fine and well if your guy is in the top ten, but what if the first guy in the bottom seven or eight got Trumped by Trump, based on a poll? And how do you become number one in a poll? Say a bunch of stuff that gets a lot of news coverage. The decision to cover the Sturgis 2015 event versus the Republican ‘debate’ is detailed in this podcast. Without saying the debate is a disaster for the Republicans (it could be), it feels way to early for such a spectacle. It is dangerous for the Republican party and the American people when a television network decides who the top candidates are, before a vote has been cast. A minimum of a million people are due in Sturgis at some point during this week, in actual physical form. Not on line. Not watching it on Fox News, CNN or MSNBC. People in this country are doing what they do, while a tiny portion of the public is sitting in front of their TV’s hanging on every word. Somehow that feels very close to pathetic when the weather is amazing, and the open road beckons. So Sturgis it is. In this first road trip podcast in the Mobile Podcast Command Unit, recorded about 1 AM, a little slash and burn, some stories, and some comments about the ‘big debate’. Sponsored by X Government Cars. (Editor’s Note: In this podcast I refer to the Sturgis event as the 75th anniversary of Harley Davidson, which is obviously and painfully incorrect. I meant the Sturgis Motorcycle Rally event is 75 years old.)

Podcast 222

2014 Election Coverage. One month away from Election 2014, The Bob Davis Podcasts begins its coverage. All the pundits and big networks have developed story lines for the election this year: What’s going to happen on election night. What is Bob Davis’ story line for the evening of November 4th, 2014, when election results start pouring in across the country. Will it be a Republican Wave? That’s the story line. Is it true? What about Minnesota state elections for state-wide offices and the legislature? How do ‘regular’ people decipher what the polls say, and what they mean? Does any analyst have a handle on what people are thinking going into this election. While voters are dissatisfied with President Obama, they are also dissatisfied with the House of Representatives, the Republican Party and the US Senate. Moreover, with 435 local congressional district elections, 1/3rd of the Senate and local elections across the country, the results may depend on local personalities and local issues. Republicans point to leads in some states they hope to pick up Senate seats in, but are those leads wide enough to overcome democrat turn out advantages. Do Democrats really have a turn-out advantage? And what about those polls? Are they to be believed? Is there a rule of thumb observers can use? Where to go to find the polling data, and the averages all in one place. What will be the big story on election night? Republican take over of the US Senate? Or will the Democrats hold? Will Republicans win state-wide races and the legislature in Minnesota? We welcome your comments and suggestions regarding coverage via the comments section at the Bob Davis Podcasts. And, introducing the over-the-top theme for Election 2014 coverage from the Bob Davis Podcasts. Sponsored by X Government Cars