Art-Of-Politics-Polling-Prediction-Bob Davis Podcast 935

Updating Current Political Polls

Firstly Art-Of-Politics-Polling-Prediction-Bob Davis Podcast 935 is part of a series of podcasts updating current polls for 2020.

No Blanket Statements

Secondly I tend to avoid blanket statements when it comes to political polls.

Politics is An Art

Finally I believe despite all the technology we have politics is still an art.

No Silver Bullet For Predictions

Even more there is no application or spreadsheet that can ‘predict’ an outcome based on polls.

Probabilities

In short we can only look at probabilities.

Snapshots

Polls are snapshots in real time.

Shocking Confusion When It Comes To Polls

Meanwhile pundits and commentators continue to display a shocking confusion when it comes to understanding political polling.

Out and Out Bias

Most importantly some are ‘in the tank’ for one or the other candidate.

National Polls A Disservice To Supporters of Both Candidates

Consequently all of this political chatter and predictions does a disservice to supporters of all candidates.

Your Own Reality Check

On the other hand what if I can show you how to do your own reality check on your smart phone whenever you hear some wild prediction of a ‘landslide’ for either candidate.

That’s what Art-Of-Politics-Polling-Prediction-Bob Davis Podcast 935 is all about.

Still All About Showing Up

In conclusion if we have learned anything over the years, it is politics still belongs to those who show up.

State By State Battleground

Working hard down to the election is always the best approach. National polls are useless as the popular vote does not determine the presidency in the US.

Stay With The Bob Davis Podcasts

To sum up stay with me for a clear eyed view of the state by state polling results so that you’re not shocked and surprised on election night. Anything is possible, but right now it’s still a close race.

(Editor’s Note: As I recorded this podcast new polls were being released and results uploaded. As of the date of this post, the new polls have not changed my conclusion that 2020 will be close based on tight races in battleground states. I’ll do another podcast after the next spate of polls and we’ll see how things change. The good news is, if you listen to this podcast you’ll know how to update yourself when new polls come out.)

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Art-Of-Politics-Polling-Prediction-Bob Davis Podcast 935

Real-Talk-2020-Election-Issues-Bob Davis Podcast 871

Political Chatter

These days there’s a lot of political chatter. We’ll talk about it in Real-Talk-2020-Election-Issues-Bob Davis Podcast 871.

Who the candidates are.

Who’s going to be nominated.

Which ones will win. It seems to change every week.

Not Much Real Talk About Issues

In contrast there hasn’t been a lot of talk about the issues. We’ll do that it in Real-Talk-2020-Election-Issues-Bob Davis Podcast 871.

Our Dream State Of Politics

This podcast opens with a quote about the dreamlike nature of our politics. Then there are the pundits who seem to want to break it down with percentages and numbers. To advocate. The desire is to make a call and tell you who’s going to win.

I won’t do that.

Art Not Science

Politics is more of an art than a science.

Personalities and Partisanship

In 2020 it may come down to personalities and partisanship, not polling and elections data from yesteryear.

Emotions Make Bad Decisions

Moreover I don’t think people driven by emotion, and armed with conspiracy theory, make decisions based on the so called ‘issues’.

Fluid Issues

Issues are also fluid. Killing a famous terrorist changes the fortunes of a president.

In addition so can a series of bad economic numbers or an economic crisis.

One day’s high is the next day’s low.

Long Lists Of Issues

I researched issues. Got long lists of ‘issues’. Certainly many of those ‘issues‘ are included in this podcast. Do they mean anything?

What The Media Is Selling You Already

Will these issues drive the election? That’s what most of the media is selling you.

Not me.

In contrast I’ve picked four key themes I think may have a big impact on what happens in 2020. Let’s not forget we don’t directly elect presidents in the US. We do directly elect congress and our statewide representatives and governors. Those elections are important too.

Themes

In conclusion it’s necessary say again I am not supporting or fighting against any candidate. I am not trying to convince listeners and subscribers we need to move a certain way in this country. You listen. Make your own calls.

Sponsored by John Scott Personal Injury Lawyer, Ryan Plumbing and Heating of Saint Paul and Reliafund Payment Processors

Real-Talk-2020-Election-Issues-Bob Davis Podcast 871

 

 

 

 

Early-Election-Advisory-2020-Bob Davis Podcast 836

A Year Away And It’s Already Started

The 2020 election is more than a year away. Time and distance doesn’t stop the predictions about who’s running. Even more, who’s going to win. Time to come back to Earth in Early-Election-Advisory-2020-Bob Davis Podcast 836.

Sorry State Of Politics

One of the themes of my podcasts is the sorry state of politics in the United States. First of all our politics these days are driven completely by media. Social media. Cable News Channels. YouTube. Podcasting. All partisan. Usually owned by rich political operators.

Don’t Trust Everything You Read

Moreover it’s all about persuasion. Nothing we see or hear can be trusted.

Confirmation Bias

Tell us what they want to hear.

Make us feel good about it.

What I Won’t Do

Due to advocacy media, seems like the best thing I can do is tell you what I won’t do when it comes to coverage of election 2020. This kind of coverage is a great opportunity for independent voices.

Manipulation Is The Media’s Business

Certainly all the commentators and talking heads are busy convincing us of a point of view. Predicting the future, making assumptions on rumor and innuendo are the tools they use to manipulate viewers. Learn more in Early-Election-Advisory-2020-Bob Davis Podcast 836.

The Borg

Meanwhile local, state and the federal government take in huge sums of money and we don’t seem to have any control over how it’s spent. Consequently more of us feel government is the Borg. We can’t understand it, much less control it. And increasingly we don’t like this feeling.

No Predictions

Therefore with over 25 candidates for the presidency the best service I can provide is to steadfastly avoid predictions and identify my own biases.

Can’t Stand Any of Them

Finally, that doesn’t mean I can’t appreciate political skill. campaign wins and losses, political brinkmanship or propaganda. I just refuse to jump in on one side or another. I also refuse to predict the future and predict outcomes. Especially outcomes based on polls.

See It For What It Is

In conclusion, I have found the best way to learn what “The American People” might be thinking, is travel and actually covering these political events.

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Early-Election-Advisory-2020-Bob Davis Podcast 836