Art-Of-Politics-Polling-Prediction-Bob Davis Podcast 935

Updating Current Political Polls

Firstly Art-Of-Politics-Polling-Prediction-Bob Davis Podcast 935 is part of a series of podcasts updating current polls for 2020.

No Blanket Statements

Secondly I tend to avoid blanket statements when it comes to political polls.

Politics is An Art

Finally I believe despite all the technology we have politics is still an art.

No Silver Bullet For Predictions

Even more there is no application or spreadsheet that can ‘predict’ an outcome based on polls.

Probabilities

In short we can only look at probabilities.

Snapshots

Polls are snapshots in real time.

Shocking Confusion When It Comes To Polls

Meanwhile pundits and commentators continue to display a shocking confusion when it comes to understanding political polling.

Out and Out Bias

Most importantly some are ‘in the tank’ for one or the other candidate.

National Polls A Disservice To Supporters of Both Candidates

Consequently all of this political chatter and predictions does a disservice to supporters of all candidates.

Your Own Reality Check

On the other hand what if I can show you how to do your own reality check on your smart phone whenever you hear some wild prediction of a ‘landslide’ for either candidate.

That’s what Art-Of-Politics-Polling-Prediction-Bob Davis Podcast 935 is all about.

Still All About Showing Up

In conclusion if we have learned anything over the years, it is politics still belongs to those who show up.

State By State Battleground

Working hard down to the election is always the best approach. National polls are useless as the popular vote does not determine the presidency in the US.

Stay With The Bob Davis Podcasts

To sum up stay with me for a clear eyed view of the state by state polling results so that you’re not shocked and surprised on election night. Anything is possible, but right now it’s still a close race.

(Editor’s Note: As I recorded this podcast new polls were being released and results uploaded. As of the date of this post, the new polls have not changed my conclusion that 2020 will be close based on tight races in battleground states. I’ll do another podcast after the next spate of polls and we’ll see how things change. The good news is, if you listen to this podcast you’ll know how to update yourself when new polls come out.)

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Art-Of-Politics-Polling-Prediction-Bob Davis Podcast 935

Media-Distorts-Poll-Results-Again-Bob Davis Podcast 932

Media Back To Its Old Tricks

Firstly the media is back to its old tricks. They are showing a shocking level of ignorance when it comes to political polls. Learn in Media-Distorts-Poll-Results-Again-Bob Davis Podcast 932.

Predicting The Future. Again.

Secondly we should be suspicious of a media with a penchant for predicting the future.

No Partisan Coverage of Election 2020 Here

More importantly I have avoided partisan criticism of the president. In addition I have refused to engage in the same kind of misinformation when it comes to potential presidential candidates. Now you understand why.

No Partisan Issue Advocacy Here Either

Moreover I refuse to advocate for partisan issues or tell listeners and subscribers what to think.

Political Polling Coverage

Therefore I am starting my political coverage of presidential polling for 2020.

State By State Reports

To clarify from time to time I will do some podcasts discussing recent polling on a state by state basis.

Ignorant Story Lines

Truth is, the story lines being created now may or may not be the eventual result. I’ll explain why in Media-Distorts-Poll-Results-Again-Bob Davis Podcast 932.

All About The Electoral Vote

Even more we choose our presidents through the electoral college. We do not vote directly for the office of president in the United States.This reality forces presidential campaigns to develop electoral strategies.

Divided? Really?

Above all we keep hearing how the United States has become a ‘divided’ country. It’s the Blue States against the Red States.

County By County Vote Totals

But county by county vote totals show the votes are often ‘blue’ or ‘red’ by pluralities, not majorities.

National Presidential Polls Are Useless

Finally citing national popularity polls, presidential job approval polls, or even national political preference is little more than a waste of time.

Another Close Contest, So Far…

In conclusion, the 2020 presidential race at this time looks like another close contest. Unless that reality changes it’s going to come down to some key states.

Still Not A Lot Of Polling Data For Battleground States

Meanwhile polling data is not available for all the so called battleground states.

Fantasy Reporting

In short don’t believe everything you hear.

(Editor’s Note: I refer to both candidates running as ‘presidents’. Obviously I meant President Trump and former Vice President Biden. In addition at the time of recording of this podcast¬† results of the Iowa US Senate Primary had not been released. Due to this, no polls were available on the race. The primary was held on June 2nd, 2020. I said no democrat had yet been selected in the Iowa US Senate Race, which includes Senator Joni Ernst as the republican incumbent. This was true at the time. Now Ernst has a democratic opponent. For the results go here.)

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Media-Distorts-Poll-Results-Again-Bob Davis Podcast 932

 

Covid-Chaos-Denial-Observations-Bob Davis Podcast 914

Welcome To Covid Crisis Denial

Seems like the whole world has gone crazy doesn’t it? Time for an easy talker about the Covid Crisis Denial. In addition some thoughts on the future. Learn more in Covid-Chaos-Denial-Observations-Bob Davis Podcast 914.

Podcast Series

I’ve produced a whole series of podcasts listeners are still getting caught up on. Click here for all of them.

The Politics of Panic

Podcast 910 on the politics of panic is especially relevant.

Loss Of Conservative Political Principals

Even more, podcast 912 details the breakdown of conservative principles in the face of fear.

Hey Dad, What’s an Economic Breakdown?

Finally there’s podcast 913. How could the world economy might break down and what might be done about it, even if that’s the wrong thing to do.

Additional Thoughts and Observations

Covid-Chaos-Denial-Observations-Bob Davis Podcast 914 consolidates some thoughts and observations from the earlier podcasts in the series.

What I have Not Said

I certainly will tell you in this podcast what I have not said in the series.

So Far Very Little Bloviating

I think it’s most noteworthy that I have not bloviated on medical and statistical explanations the way some media charlatans have. On the other hand I will share some stories.

Details On Spreading Dread

In conclusion the second half of this podcast explores some of the details about the spread of Coronavirus and the potential economic effects. One of the things I’ve noticed is despite the tools we have, many people are at a loss when it comes to fact checking what is being said.

I’d like To Order A Miracle Please

Above all I will say that I believe we are just at the beginning of a nationwide crisis only a miracle will save us from.

As I have said from the get go…Time Will Tell

(Editor’s Note: This is obviously a fast moving story. Every now and then I misspeak or get a fact wrong. It really bothers me when I do, especially when it comes to arithmetic or something I should have known. I apologize for those mistakes in advance. I think right now, it’s better to get the content up than to be worried about everything being exactly right. On the other hand I’m pretty confident of my observations in general.)

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Covid-Chaos-Denial-Observations-Bob Davis Podcast 914