Trumpers-Think-Political-Polls-Lie-Bob Davis Podcast 862

Republicans Hate Polls…Unless They Show Trump In The Lead

There’s so much bias these days on every media platform there’s no trust. A conversation with a republican friend lead to this podcast about whether polls lie. Find out more by listening to Trumpers-Think-Political-Polls-Lie-Bob Davis Podcast 862.

Who Did The Poll?

First of all when it comes to polling, the first question a republican will ask is, “Who did the poll”. Especially if it reflects poorly on the president. In addition their second favorite response is, “No One Called Me”. Gah!

What Poll Will You Accept?

In contrast I wonder, “What poll would you accept?“.

Polling Explained. Again.

It’s time again to explain polling and the potential for a republican win or loss in 2020.

No bias or predictions. Just the lay of the land.

Accept and Consider Information Challenging Your Position

Above all political true believers reject any poll that doesn’t show their guy winning. Even more, political analysis requires accepting and considering information that challenges you.

Approval Ratings 101

In Trumpers-Think-Political-Polls-Lie-Bob Davis Podcast 862 front and center are approval ratings and their ability to predict winners.

Past Elections

Moreover I’ll look at how you can use polls to make solid judgements. I’ll also talk about the history of past elections as a tool.

Polls Don’t Lie … The Media Lies

Not only do I reject the assertion the polls “lie”. When averaged they can be quite predictive.

Unfortunately the wholesale ignorance of polling in our media is especially relevant. For Example, while the polls in 2016 showed a close race for president, they never predicted a Clinton win.

Trump Struggles In The Battleground States

Finally at issue are tracking polls showing the president’s approval rating in battleground states plummeting. With manufacturing reportedly in recession in Wisconsin and Michigan, republican bosses are concerned. They should be. Trump has to win the battleground states to win a second term.

A Republican Siding With The UAW?

Perhaps it is for that reason that the president is rumored to want to intervene in a current GM strike, in favor of the UAW.

History And No Judgements

Therefore this podcast is valuable because it looks at chances for both a landslide as well as a tough race, without judgements and predictions. There’s a lot of information here about past presidential races, the history of polling and approval ratings. It might come in handy.

Sponsored by Reliafund Payment Processors and The Strategic Business Planners at Virtus Law

Trumpers-Think-Political-Polls-Lie-Bob Davis Podcast 862

Chaos-Confusion-Shut Down-Merry Trumpmas-Bob Davis Podcast 788

I love talking about current events. These days it gets harder and harder because of a volatile President Trump. Learn more in Chaos-Confusion-Shut Down-Merry Trumpmas-Bob Davis Podcast 788.

Genius Or Idiot

Moreover all this talk of political polarity isn’t republican or democrat. Either you think the president is a genius or an idiot. There’s no in between.

Especially relevant is the question of whether we are able to take a step back and look at recent key events with some perspective.

Economics and Diplomacy Nobody Wants To Discuss

Not too long ago I asked listeners and subscribers to think about what US economic and foreign policy should be. A presidential election and midterm election have taken place since then.

Suddenly foreign policy and economic policy are front and center. We’ll talk about it fireside in Chaos-Confusion-Shut Down-Merry Trumpmas-Bob Davis Podcast 788.

Syria and Turkey

First of all, the president made a snap decision to withdraw US Troops from Syria while on the phone with the Turkish president. In the aftermath the defense secretary resigned, as well as a senior diplomat managing the alliances to fight ISIS. Now the president is talking about withdraws from Afghanistan and Iraq. Is he right?

Combined with Trump’s executive order ban of Bump-Stocks the Syria Withdraw has usually fawning talk show hosts apoplectic.

Government Shutdown

In addition the ongoing struggle between the White House and Congress has resulted in a government ‘shutdown‘. What’s more the struggle appears to be between a Republican president and his Republican majority in the House and Senate.

Firing The Fed Head

On top off all this the president wants to fire the Federal Reserve Chairman. Concerns about economic performance are rising and finally financial analysts are writing about government spending accounting for most of the so called ‘boom’ in the US economy over the last two quarters. This is conservative republican economics?

End Of Conservative GOP

Finally there’s talk of a big split within the republican party. Moderate Republicans fighting Trumpers. Trump fighting with all of them to get a wall built along the US Mexican border. Through all of this there’s been no legislation on key matters like immigration even with republican control of the Legislative and Executive branches of the government. It sure seems like the lack of principles and republican populism is tearing the so called ‘conservative’ coalition apart.

Merry Trumpmas

In conclusion the question of whether people thought about policy during both elections is key. New ideas, and international structures are coming. If we the people don’t start thinking about what kind of country we want, and how will the next America function? Trumpmas will look like child’s play. All of this has me aching to hit the open road!

Sponsored by John D Scott Personal Injury Lawyer, Ryan Plumbing and Heating of Saint Paul, and Reliafund Payment Processors

Chaos-Confusion-Shut Down-Merry Trumpmas-Bob Davis Podcast 788

 

Toss Up House Elections 2018-Part 1-Bob Davis Podcast 753

Every two years the entire US House of Representatives has to run for election. The predictions of the prognosticators concerning these elections are most noteworthy. The sages say as many as 58 republican seats are in jeopardy. We’ll find out in a series of podcasts that examine each of these house races in detail. Toss Up House Elections 2018-Part 1-Bob Davis Podcast 753.

Predictions Are Dangerous

I hate predictions, Moreover I find while the media loves to ‘nationalize’ house and senate elections most of the time they turn on local issues not the national issues. One of the reasons predictions are often be wrong.

Especially relevant, so many of these races are considered toss ups.

Calibrating The Crystal Ball

There’s only way to determine whether men staring into crystal balls can predict the future. You have to examine each district one at a time.

In part one we look at several districts in California, Colorado, and Florida. More are on the way.

Travel Makes Great Political Analysis

I am happy to say I have been to many of these districts in Mobile Podcast Command. ‘Just passing through’ doesn’t give you some gift for the truth but it does help to visualize. Because I travel I have additional knowledge that is invaluable when it comes to understanding what’s going on in some of these elections.

Pivot Counties Are Well…Pivotal

Similarly it helps to have visited to some of the so called ‘Pivot Counties‘ and to have traveled through areas these guys on TV probably have not seen recently, if ever. It all adds up to the realization that all politics really is local.

New Political Environment?

Because I traveled in 2016 I was able to to realize early on something different was brewing. I think we’re still in a new political environment. All the more reason not to avoid the tarot card readers on TV. Listen to Toss Up House Elections 2018-Part 1-Bob Davis Podcast 753 instead.

No Predictions Just Information And a Baseline For You

While I won’t predict anything in 2018 I think it is fair to say we’re in a new environment politically in which almost anything can happen. Moreover whatever is happening may not show up in polls and primary election data.

Isn’t that what makes watching the outcome so much fun?

Sponsored by Reliafund Payment Processors and The Water Butler Water Purification Systems

Toss Up House Elections 2018-Part 1-Bob Davis Podcast 753