Trumpers-Think-Political-Polls-Lie-Bob Davis Podcast 862

Republicans Hate Polls…Unless They Show Trump In The Lead

There’s so much bias these days on every media platform there’s no trust. A conversation with a republican friend lead to this podcast about whether polls lie. Find out more by listening to Trumpers-Think-Political-Polls-Lie-Bob Davis Podcast 862.

Who Did The Poll?

First of all when it comes to polling, the first question a republican will ask is, “Who did the poll”. Especially if it reflects poorly on the president. In addition their second favorite response is, “No One Called Me”. Gah!

What Poll Will You Accept?

In contrast I wonder, “What poll would you accept?“.

Polling Explained. Again.

It’s time again to explain polling and the potential for a republican win or loss in 2020.

No bias or predictions. Just the lay of the land.

Accept and Consider Information Challenging Your Position

Above all political true believers reject any poll that doesn’t show their guy winning. Even more, political analysis requires accepting and considering information that challenges you.

Approval Ratings 101

In Trumpers-Think-Political-Polls-Lie-Bob Davis Podcast 862 front and center are approval ratings and their ability to predict winners.

Past Elections

Moreover I’ll look at how you can use polls to make solid judgements. I’ll also talk about the history of past elections as a tool.

Polls Don’t Lie … The Media Lies

Not only do I reject the assertion the polls “lie”. When averaged they can be quite predictive.

Unfortunately the wholesale ignorance of polling in our media is especially relevant. For Example, while the polls in 2016 showed a close race for president, they never predicted a Clinton win.

Trump Struggles In The Battleground States

Finally at issue are tracking polls showing the president’s approval rating in battleground states plummeting. With manufacturing reportedly in recession in Wisconsin and Michigan, republican bosses are concerned. They should be. Trump has to win the battleground states to win a second term.

A Republican Siding With The UAW?

Perhaps it is for that reason that the president is rumored to want to intervene in a current GM strike, in favor of the UAW.

History And No Judgements

Therefore this podcast is valuable because it looks at chances for both a landslide as well as a tough race, without judgements and predictions. There’s a lot of information here about past presidential races, the history of polling and approval ratings. It might come in handy.

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Trumpers-Think-Political-Polls-Lie-Bob Davis Podcast 862

Time Like No Other-Bob Davis Podcast 826

We’re living through a time like no other. Talking heads constantly compare our time to other times. Does that make sense these days? We’ll talk about it in Time Like No Other-Bob Davis Podcast 826.

Fall Of Rome Anyone?

We’re living through an era ‘like’ the end of the Roman Empire, the foundation of the American Republic, the Civil War, even the 1920’s, say pundits.

Civil War?

Our political divisions are ‘just like‘ those before the Civil War. Is this valid? We’ll talk about it in Time Like No Other-Bob Davis Podcast 826.

World War One On The Menu?

In addition our time is supposedly just like the time before World War One because we face trouble in Eastern Europe and the Middle East and there is a backlash to free trade. Does this make sense?

Trump and Hayes

Hapless political figures are compared to President Trump. Andrew Jackson. James Buchanan. Even Abe Lincoln, Andrew Jackson and Richard Nixon. Rutherford B. Hates and George Wallace. These comparisons are inaccurate. Comparisons suggest an outcome. Also inaccurate.

Ours Is A Unique Era

Finally these comparisons hide the fact that we are living through a unique time. Institutions that have existed for hundreds and even thousands of years appear to be in rapid decline today. At the same time scientific and technological advancements promise even more disruption in the days to come.

Borders, Drones, Social Media As A Weapon and AI

From Border issues to Artificial Intelligence to the rise of Social Media as a weapon. New companies and new products generate unprecedented profits. People seem to be losing faith in their governments. How will we handle these issues?

This Is Not A Movie

Above all comparing our population and technology to ancient and bygone times might make great movies, but bad reality.

In conclusion, we don’t address critical challenges when we look to the past.

By all means let’s learn from history but history isn’t a simple template you can apply to the present time. We’re making it up as we go. Maybe it’s time to accept this really is a new and unique age and act accordingly.

(Editor’s Note: This is a complex podcast. When I do these kinds of podcasts I rush a little to get through necessary details, so I can get to the conclusions. And of course, when rush I can misspeak. The most glaring example in this podcast? I confused President Andrew Jackson with President Andrew Johnson. Seconds before speaking about Jackson, I jumped ahead to the 1860’s when Johnson, not Jackson was impeached.)

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Time Like No Other-Bob Davis Podcast 826


 

 

Booming US Economy-Reality Check-Bob Davis Podcast 811

These days Trump cultists love to talk about the booming economy. Time for a reality check. Learn more in Booming US Economy-Reality Check-Bob Davis Podcast 811.

Under 3 Percent

Especially relevant are Gross Domestic Product numbers from the 4th quarter of 2018. The average for the whole year is predicted to be under three percent.

Cherry Picking Numbers

Boosters like to cherry pick statistics. I like good old Gross Domestic Product numbers. They are released at the end of every quarter. GDP performance for each fiscal year is pretty hard to ignore. Especially when people say this president has ‘fixed’ the economy and worked miracles.

Just Because You Do Well Doesn’t Mean The Economy Is Doing Well

Moreover if I’ve heard it once I have heard it a thousand times. Saying your business is doing well does not mean the economy as a whole is doing any better than it has. The latest retail performance is a good example. This distinction is important only because the president wants us to believe he “blows Ronald Reagan Away”.

Objective Legislative Achievements On Economy

In Booming US Economy-Reality Check-Bob Davis Podcast 811 I objectively list President Trump’s few legislative achievements when it comes to the economy as well as his executive orders concerning the economy.

Hardly A Boom

In 2017 the US Economy grew by 2.2 percent. First quarter of 2018 was 2.2 percent. Second quarter 4.2 percent. Third quarter 3.4 percent. Fourth quarter 2.6 percent. Hardly a boom.

Not Even As Good As Obama

In contrast, President Obama’s best year was 2015, at 2.9 percent. Obama also presided over one quarter of growth of 5.1 percent, followed by another quarter of 4.9 percent growth. Better than Trump’s best two quarters so far.

Actual GDP Numbers

First of all growth is growth and we’ll take it. However, because of republican claims of great economic success, it’s time for a reality check based on actual GDP numbers.

And Obama Wasn’t That Good Either

At issue are claims by the president and his supporters he has done a fantastic job. Truth is so far his numbers are still about the same as Obama’s, which weren’t very good either.

We Pale In Contrast To The Early 80’s, Mid and Early 1960’s and 1950’s

Even more, all the numbers in our time pale in contrast to performance above 7 percent in the 80’s, high six percent in the 60’s and above 8 percent in the 1950’s.

Contrast our time with the 1980’s, 1960’s, or 1950’s.

What we’re living through is not a boom.

Republican Doesn’t Mean Conservative Anymore

Finally a republican in the White House does not guarantee ‘conservative’ economic management. Pushing for a weak dollar. Borrowing to stimulate. Trade Protection. Adding trillions to the national debt. More debt and deficit spending for ‘infrastructure‘ don’t seem like ‘republican‘ ideas.

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Booming US Economy-Reality Check-Bob Davis Podcast 811