Above all China is a challenge to the United States. How we handle the challenge will not only determine the future of China and the US, but our character.
Weak Minds Need Not Apply
For that reason it’s necessary to say leadership that has proven to be weak minded, bellicose without cause or unpredictable will not fare well in this environment.
Money. Money. Money! Everything the new President says and does is controversial. The latest eruption concerns Trump’s executive order regarding immigrants from several war-torn countries in the middle east region. A handful of court rulings challenging the order are centered on whether due process can be denied people allowed into the United States legally. The court rulings do not suggest the President cannot use executive orders to control departments in the executive branch but whether if the executive orders deny legal rights without due process.
This is just another in a series of actions and comments by President Trump and his administration that have received wide comment and coverage in the media. While protesters protest and media outlets gas-bag about the latest affront to society, Trump and his people throw another rock into the lake creating new ripples that have to be protested against and reacted to by the already too reactive media. This is a tactic or strategy known as an OODA Loop. Trump is forcing the media and his opponents to react to him. When they react his team observes their reaction, decides on a new initiative and then acts, restarting the loop. In this way the administration controls the media battle space.
About the Money
In Podcast 595-Money: When it comes to Money, once the initial spate of executive orders and stunts at press conferences passes, Congress and the President will get down to work on legislative initiatives to address the moribund economy of the United States. Podcast 595-Money wonders whether what has been talked about by this president on the campaign trail and in the media will indeed, make America Great Again.
No Growth
The United States has grown less than 3 percent a year roughly for the last eight years. Those old enough to remember the early 80’s know that the experience of robust economic growth in that era was real. People didn’t worry so much about getting jobs. As inflation came under control and interest rates came down and as unemployment started to come down, optimism took hold. We have not had that kind of feeling in the United States for a long time.
The question is whether the things Trump wants to do will actually produce economic growth. Middle Class taxes are already historically low. Cutting corporate taxes may result in higher profits which is good for Wall Street but may not translate to jobs. Some parts of clearing out the thicket of Federal Regulations can be done by executive order but most of it will require congressional action. Will a Trillion Dollar Stimulus package to build roads and bridges spur economic growth?
A Republican Stimulus?
President Obama’s Trillion Dollar stimulus was supposed to stimulate economic growth and didn’t. Part of the problem with big federal stimulus efforts is the money has to be block granted to states and the spending becomes political. Another issue is the fact that most people in the United States are employed in services rather than construction trade. Aside from the fact that government spending doesn’t ‘create’ jobs, putting people to work in a small swath of the population usually doesn’t result in a high multiple. This is why the Obama Stimulus produced dubious results.
Another problem is Trump’s Trade Protectionist sentiments. While the trade unions love the idea generally the United States has been a free trade nation. Trade agreements are negotiated because most of our trading partners are trade protectionists. The agreements generally break down borders to our trade. The fact certain kinds of manufacturing is cheaper in Latin America and Asia has actually benefited Americans in the form of cheaper goods. Putting up barriers to manufacturing overseas also means goods in the US will become more expensive.
Most of the jobs lost in the last decade or so have been lost due to information technology, robotics and automation. New manufacturing plants are much more automated these days which means they will not produce the manufacturing jobs expected. When one considers completely automated warehouses like Amazon’s and robotic manufacturing like Elon Musk’s showplace plant, don’t expect ‘bringing manufacturing back to the United States’ means jobs at the factory for Uncle Mike.
If you believe the economy is the sum total of individual’s transactions then an economy can be considered a force of nature. This is the first time in recent memory a ‘conservative’ president has endorsed trade protection and big government spending. Two of the biggest problems economically in the United States are the ongoing budget deficits and the total public debt. One wonders how the cornerstones of the Trump economic policy will produce enough growth to reduce the deficits and public debt.
Finally in Podcast 595-Money, the proof will be in the pudding. With all the other controversies swirling around this president after just two weeks if his policies fail to produce the promised economic growth republicans will have real problems in the 2018 and perhaps the 2020 cycles, especially for the politicians that endorsed Trump. Be careful what you pray for.
Podcast 523-Jason Lewis. Join Mobile Podcast Command Unit 8 in the Pan-O-Prog parade in Lakeville, Minnesota. If you’re running for office, or working for someone running for office, regardless of party affiliation, you’re walking in parades, driving in parades, or handing out literature at parades all over your district, and you’ll be doing so until right around State Fair time in the land of ten thousand lakes. The Panorama of Progress parade in Lakeville dates back to 1967. Lakeville is in the heart of Minnesota’s 2nd Congressional District where a big political fight is brewing. It isn’t a fight between republicans and democrats, but a fight between republicans. Four candidates are vying for the seat being vacated by the retirement of Congressman John Kline. The trouble started before the CD2 Endorsing convention when Kline endorsed Darlene Miller instead of Jason Lewis. Some believe Kline’s problem stems from comments made by Jason Lewis on The Bob Davis Podcasts regarding Iran and US Foreign Policy. I would urge critics to actually listen to what Lewis said by searching ‘Jason Lewis’ in the search window on my website (thebobdavispodcasts.com) rather than using liner notes or taking the so called party line. As it pertains to foreign policy, I have said many times, it’s going to take independent and thoughtful congressmen, senators, presidents, career diplomats, defense and foreign policy experts to develop a new foreign policy for the United States. The old plug-and-play approach to foreign policy, or the best of the 70’s, 80’s and 90’s strategies isn’t going to work in a multi-polar world. Military commitments have to be considered in the light of what the knock-on effects of those interventions might mean, something our government really didn’t do very well when the US invaded Iraq and Afghanistan. Some might argue, this is the root of what ruined the GOP’s chance to succeed George W Bush, or to limit Barack Obama to one term. In the aftermath of the Ron Paul revolution in republican politics, as well as wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, the development of ISIS, the Arab Spring, Syria, emerging economies, China and Russia, we need a new approach to defense and foreign policy. The problem is, as I have said, foreign policy doesn’t come out of a can. In this podcast, we ride in the parade with Jason Lewis supporters, who commandeered Mobile Podcast Command’s PA System (I didn’t care, I wanted to ride in the parade anyway, and this doesn’t constitute an endorsement. Jason is a friend of mine, and I think he’s great, but you go ahead and vote for anyone you want!) so you can hear a campaign in progress, and then we’re joined by Jason to talk about the campaign, the Primary Challenge on August 9th, focusing on trade and the economic challenges for everyday Americans, on a brilliantly sunny afternoon in July, in Lakeville Minnesota. Enjoy riding in a parade in Podcast 523-Jason Lewis. Sponsored by Ryan Plumbing and Heating of Saint Paul and Karow Contracting, Storm Damage Specialists.
