Conventional Wisdom-Election 2018 Follies-Podcast 764

These days it always pays to wait for an outcome before you predict the future. With the confirmation of Brett Cavanaugh to the US Supreme Court we have an outcome. Now comes an avalanche of predictions about the court fight’s impact on the election. Find out why I say ignore the prognosticators in Conventional Wisdom-Election 2018 Follies-Podcast 764.

Bottom line, elections belong to the people who vote. Not tea leaves

Most noteworthy in 2018 are several US Senate Elections. Moreover scores of House elections are very close.

Blue Wave. Wait! Red Wave! No Wait! Blue Wave

What’s the media telling the American people? It’s a ‘blue’ wave fueled by young adults and women angry at the treatment of Christine Ford, nemesis of the former court nominee. Don’t like that story line? Guess what? Republican voters are seething and will go out and vote again democrats in droves. So say the story tellers.

Not Enough Data

In contrast to the nonsense being spewed by now famous political ‘scientists’ no one knows who’s actually going to vote. Polls are scanty and some shoddily conducted. Another factor is the fact that determining who will vote and why is truly an art. In other words, no one knows. It’s about time someone explains it’s hard to say what will happen on November 6th, without picking sides.

Quick! Who’s Your Congressman?

Truth is midterm voter turn out is lower than presidential years. Many people don’t even know who their congressman is. National issues don’t always drive elections. Almost all the House districts that aren’t gerrymandered are close. And somehow one national story is going to drive the results of all these elections? Are they toss ups that can go either way? Are these close races evidence of a blue wave? Find out in Conventional Wisdom-Election 2018 Follies-Podcast 764.

Coverage Of Politics In This Country is Terrible

In conclusion I am driven to do another political podcast I did not want to do. Why? Because most of what passes for political coverage in this country is terrible. Too many predictions. Lots of bias. Mostly telling both sides what they want to hear. Finally someone who tells it like it is and waits for election day to judge the outcome.

Sponsored by Water Butler Water Purification Systems and Johantgen Jewelers

Conventional Wisdom-Election 2018 Follies-Podcast 764

 

2018 Toss Up Elections-Final Thoughts-Podcast 758

The 2018 Midterm election season has been most noteworthy for its twists and turns. Now as we head into the final month of the campaigns, find out what to look for on election day in 2018 Toss Up Elections-Final Thoughts-Podcast 758.

Media Cherry Picks Stats

Then there’s the media’s habit of cherry picking statistics. They call it ‘political coverage’. Statistics prove the story line. Damn lies convince us none of this has ever happened before.

Predictions of Doom

The president’s approval rating has never been worse. Voters have never been more fired up. If things continue the way they are now, terrible outcomes are inevitable. The president’s political party always loses seats in a midterm. Are these predictions of doom true? Learn more in 2018 Toss Up Elections-Final Thoughts-Podcast 758.

Polls Don’t Lie. The Media Lies

Finally, in my experience making predictions about statewide and house elections based on national polls and baselines is problematic although some research suggests they may be reliable predictors in midterm elections. There just isn’t enough information to say one way or another what will happen. That’s why we wait and see what the vote actually turns out to be.

Labels and Beliefs

Meanwhile these days we’re awash in labels and broadly held beliefs in pure nonsense. So and so is a “transformational figure”. A “disaster” has changed voting in a district or state forever.

Be The Change

I believe it’s time to change how we cover politics and I am putting my podcasts where my mouth is in this series on the midterm election toss ups. A close look at the data. A fair shake for the candidates. Letting the listeners and subscribers decide for themselves. Putting all the data in the podcasts so you can compare on election night. That’s what it’s all about for The Bob Davis Podcasts for Election 2018 coverage.

In conclusion, through all of it, I have to say I have no idea what will happen on November 6th, 2018, and neither does anyone else.

That’s up to you.

Sponsored by Johantgen Jewelers and Reliafund Payment Processing

2018 Toss Up Elections-Final Thoughts-Podcast 758

 

 

 

 

Toss Up House Elections 2018-Part 4-Podcast 756

As I do the last two podcasts in the toss up series at the Bob Davis Podcasts, more predictions of a democrat wave are most notable. Are these predictions true? We’ll find out in Toss Up House Elections 2018-Part 4-Podcast 756.

Shellacking

In addition to commentators AP reported this week that republican pollsters are telling top republicans they’re in for a shellacking in November.

As a mission of the Bob Davis Podcasts I have been looking at those elections deemed ‘toss ups’ by the experts.

Conventional Wisdom Is Right Until Wrong

Especially relevant is the idea behind the mission. No predictions. Non partisan. What is the situation in these key districts in the final weeks of the election. Readers, subscribers and listeners might be surprised to learn very few public polls exist. Conventional wisdom drives most of these predictions. I detail this for each toss up in Toss Up House Elections 2018-Part 4-Podcast 756.

Close Elections Don’t Always Mean Flips

From North Carolina to Texas in Toss Up House Elections 2018-Part 4-Podcast 756. Toss up races are simply close elections for whatever reason. Moreover most US House elections are in solid democrat or republican districts. This year some say there are more than 40 districts that will be close. Why they’re close is key.

Open Seats And Changing Geography

In some cases the district is an open seat because of retirements. In other cases, the contours of the district’s geography have changed. What was once a solid republican or democrat district is now supposedly more ‘balanced’.

Everyone Hates Congress…

Finally the real question in the 2018 midterms is whether people will vote their opinions of the president or local concerns. The old saying goes, everyone hates congress but not their congressman.

One Size Fits All Election?

In conclusion I spent a fair amount of time not only looking through the data for these districts but also watching some of the internet and TV ads for candidates. Sometimes it’s hard to tell the republican from the democrat. This is not a one size fits all election even though the media would have its viewers believe it is.

Once I finish this series in this podcast, and the next, I’ll do one more podcast with my analysis since there isn’t much time for that in these podcasts dealing with individual districts.

Sponsored by John D Scott Personal Injury Lawyer and the Water Butler Water Purification Systems

Toss Up House Elections 2018-Part 4-Podcast 756

 

How Content In Bob Davis Podcasts Gives Greater Insight-Podcast 720

As the host of over 720 podcasts I have trouble remembering the insights I have stumbled across. In fact many of these podcasts remain relevant. We’ll talk about it in How Content In Bob Davis Podcasts Gives Greater Insight-Podcast 720.

Partisan Coverage Is Killing Us

The heavily partisan nature of media these days has been a theme in these podcasts. I spent some time on my own website the other day and what I found surprised me. Much of it was prescient or oddly predictive.

No Predictions

Now, I can’t stand political commentators that try to predict outcomes. I actually try to avoid predicting outcomes. Thing is, when a person travels thousands of miles on backroads across this country as I have, there’s a huge takeaway. I’ll tell you about it in How Content In Bob Davis Podcasts Gives Greater Insight-Podcast 720.

Content Content Content

Moreover I have been doing a number of tightly focused podcasts packed with content lately.

No One Trusts Traditional Media

Talk radio, cable television news, even new media these days, is focused on pushing a point of view. What’s more the national media, broadcast media, and mainstream media might be missing a big shift when it comes to voters.

When it comes to issues, my use of source material and research pays off for subscribers and listeners. In addition going to the story in Mobile Podcast Command has made a huge difference in broadening my perspective.

How To Find Information On My Website

Time for a podcast that details some of the older podcasts and explains how to use the search capability on my site to go back and find some stories you might not have heard.

From The Pipeline To The California Coast

From the pipeline protest to covering the 2016 primary races in Iowa, North Carolina and Florida. Or, reading the tax bill to breaking down all the toss up House and Senate races, I don’t tell you what to think or who to vote for. I give you the lay of the land and let you make your own judgements.

Not Just Politics

In conclusion there are many more insights that come from travel and detailed study that have nothing to do with politics and they are in these podcasts too. I’ve focused on the political stuff in this podcast for the junkies out there, but anyone can use the search window and other features to find podcasts about life in general. I find I like some of those the best.

Citizen Journalism

How does a citizen journalist or podcaster contribute in a hurricane of information? Find out in How Content In Bob Davis Podcasts Gives Greater Insight-Podcast 720.

Sponsored by Ryan Plumbing and Heating of Saint Paul

How Content In Bob Davis Podcasts Gives Greater Insight-Podcast 720

 

 

Gun Control Fight Hides Important News-Internet-Spending-Taxes-Principles-Podcast 702

Controversy in the wake of another mass shooting event distracts everyone from what is really important. Three key stories you missed, show how our government is ruining our future. In Gun Control Fight Hides Important News-Internet-Spending-Taxes-Principles-Podcast 702.

Trump Supports a 25 Cent Gas Tax That Sucks Up Your Tax Cut

First of all while small business owners optimistically predict a booming economy a republican president has told democrat lawmakers he would support a twenty five cent increase in the federal gas tax on gasoline and diesel. There goes your tax cut!

Conservatives Spend More Than Obama

Especially relevant for fiscal conservatives is a four trillion dollar budget from the president. Moreover congress increased spending by hundreds of billions of dollars in the most recent continuing resolution. There are conservatives? In Gun Control Fight Hides Important News-Internet-Spending-Taxes-Principles-Podcast 702.

Solution To Fools Getting Their News From FaceBook? More Regulation

What’s more in the wake of indictments for a score of Russians and a few Americans for allegedly manipulating ‘The Internet’ to influence the recent US Presidential election, both sides of the political divide want ‘regulations’. So much for free speech!

I Guess Spending And Debt Is The Republican Way

More importantly do not take these financial mistakes lightly. US government debt is nearly 20 trillion dollars. Americans themselves carry something like 13 trillion dollars in debt. Storm clouds are building in the bond markets. We’ll talk about it in Gun Control Fight Hides Important News-Internet-Spending-Taxes-Principles-Podcast 702.

You Can’t Make America Great Carrying Trillions Of Debt

Americans cannot be self reliant and strong if they don’t figure out how to assemble the facts about what is known on any particular news story. We cannot make america great again if elected leaders can’t stop spending more and borrowing more.

Freedom Is In Our Genes And Other Myths

In conclusion the idea that ‘freedom’ and ‘democracy’ are in our genes is nonsense. We aren’t free if all of us ask the government to spend more, regulate more and ‘do something’ about every little problem. For me, the lack of principle of both political parties is shocking and dangerous. Unfortunately for so called ‘conservatives’ this lack of principle is most visible among republicans.

Find out what needs to be done and how to do it in Gun Control Fight Hides Important News-Internet-Spending-Taxes-Principles-Podcast 702.

Sponsored by Ryan Plumbing and Heating of Saint Paul

Gun Control Fight Hides Important News-Internet-Spending-Taxes-Principles-Podcast 702

Predicting Future-Divination-Story Lines-Prophecy-Warning-Podcast 701

First of all, it’s been a theme in my podcasts to discuss bad information spread by media. Most noteworthy are what the mainstream media likes to call ‘narratives’. Yet there is plenty of out and out nonsense in new media too. We’ll talk about it in Predicting Future-Divination-Story Lines-Prophecy-Warning-Podcast 701.

Are We Sane and Rational?

We like to think of ourselves as sane and rational in this country, but I am starting to wonder. Are we reversing in our progress, going back in time to become a more superstitious people?

Pseudo Science To The Rescue

People now use divination, prophecy and pseudo science to predict the future. These kinds of videos on You Tube have hundreds of thousands of views and thousands of subscribers. Moreover it’s becoming harder to argue You Tube videos have less credibility than mainstream outlets.

We Don’t Need Facts Anymore

It is especially relevant that rather than focusing on facts most of the mainstream news outlets focus on opinion to keep people watching. As a result we’re not using facts to make judgements about our world.

Anything Makes Sense When We Know Nothing

Hence, we might believe the US is about to attack North Korea. Why not accept story lines suggesting there is a planetary system hiding behind the sun and our government is keeping proof of its existence from us? Why wouldn’t we believe pseudo science stories about people who channel aliens?

Your Child Is A Genius

Because it’s easy to accept the idea that our children are geniuses and have evolved DNA and that a benevolent alien race is about to change the energy level on earth, allowing us to live disease free, and promoting love.

Welcome To A Tribal Way of Life

I think it might be easy to accept outrageous stories, when you’re fed opinion disguised as facts on the real stories? Are we well on our way to becoming a tribal rather than rational culture?

Self Reliant People Don’t Believe In Fairy Tales

In conclusion we have all been taught Americans descend from ruggedly self reliant people therefore, we are self reliant. Are we? Can we be strong and self reliant if we believe fairy tales?

Sponsored by Ryan Plumbing and Heating of Saint Paul

Predicting Future-Divination-Story Lines-Prophecy-Warning-Podcast 701

 

 

 

Oprah Winfrey News-Golden Globes Speech-Presidential Run Talk-Podcast 692

Twenty million people watched the recent telecast of the 2017 Golden Globes Awards. Millions more searched for and watched clips of Oprah Winfrey’s now famous speech at the Globes. Will Oprah will run for president in 2020? In Oprah Winfrey News-Golden Globes Speech-Presidential Run Talk-Podcast 692.

TV Star Against TV Star

These days all the talk is about TV star turned president Donald Trump saying provocative things. Until the Golden Globes. Seems like the only kind of person who might have a chance to give him a run for his money would be another TV Star.

Oprah Hits Every Chord and Plays Them At A Higher Octave Than Trump’s Twitter Feed

Enter businesswomen and TV star Oprah Winfrey, accepting the lifetime achievement award at the 2017 Golden Globes. Winfrey’s speech hit every chord in American politics these days plus a few we haven’t heard. Much as the speech was political, it was positive too.

They’re Watching In The District Of Columbia

Consequently it’s no surprise the one of the places in the country ranking high for searches about Oprah Winfrey’s speech at the Golden Globes was the District of Columbia. Especially relevant now, is the question of what happens if she decides to run for president? In Oprah Winfrey News-Golden Globes Speech-Presidential Run Talk-Podcast 692.

Freedom Of Choice

We have the freedom of choice. Therefore a podcast about the political effects of an Oprah Winfrey run ought to take up the question from an objective point of view.

By State Searches Tell An Interesting Story

Most noteworthy are the latest search trends from Google by state. Oprah searches index high in battleground states won by the president in 2016, especially in the deep south. Some of those victories in 2016 for the president were by 1 and 2 percent margins.

Giving The President And Republicans The Fight Of Their Lives

In conclusion Oprah has shown she can play the populist chords at a higher octave than the president. Furthermore she has shown she can move crowds with emotion just as effectively as President Trump. Finally if she can withstand the pressures of a campaign to win the democratic nomination for president, she could give the president and republicans the fight of their lives.

(Editor’s Note: I said in this podcast Winfrey is ‘from Georgia’. In fact she was born in Mississippi, raised in Milwaukee Wisconsin, later being sent to live in Tennessee. She started her career at a radio station in Tennessee. The point here was to illustrate her connection with the south. I just got the state wrong. I hate that!)

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Oprah Winfrey News-Golden Globes Speech-Presidential Run Talk-Podcast 692

Doug Jones Beats Roy Moore-Trump-Alabama-GOP Chaos-Podcast 685

Is the South suddenly turning blue? Democrats have handed the GOP a shocking defeat in the Alabama US Senate Race. Coverage in Doug Jones Beats Roy Moore-Trump-Alabama-GOP Chaos-Podcast 685.

A Stinging Defeat

What are the takeaways from this race? What about winners and losers? Where do the President and Republicans in the Senate go from here? Where does the President’s former chief strategist Steve Bannon go from here?

Comedy of Errors

This was a race that captured the whole country’s attention. First there was the botched appointment of Luther Strange to the Senate Seat held by Jeff Sessions by an embattled Governor. A controversial primary election followed. Especially relevant were salacious allegations of misconduct leveled against republican candidate Judge Roy Moore. We’ll talk about it in Doug Jones Beats Roy Moore-Trump-Alabama-GOP Chaos-Podcast 685.

Welcome To The Blue South?

This is the second state to elect a democrat in a state wide race this fall. With Virginia electing a democrat governor in November and now a Senator in Alabama in December republicans are suddenly concerned about a lot more than their majority in the US Senate. What about the 2018 races coming up?

The Tax Bill Suddenly Got More Expensive

Republicans have a thin majority in the Senate. With the democrats adding a seat and a few republicans soft on the President’s agenda, suddenly passing legislation like the Tax ‘Reform’ Bill, Confirmations and Treaty Votes will be a little more uphill. In 2018 you can be sure past histories of congressmen and senators and their relationships with women will be on the ballot. But there’s more.

Get That Old Religion

In Doug Jones Beats Roy Moore-Trump-Alabama-GOP Chaos-Podcast 685 we’ll talk about the failure of something called ‘Republican Populism‘ in Alabama. Truth is, many people have overlooked Roy Moore’s decidedly far right and ‘populist’ political ideas because of the allegations against him. While those allegations certainly had an effect, his politics couldn’t have helped.

Time For A Plan

Finally, do republicans have a plan for the future beyond, “We can’t let democrats win”. Is there a plan beyond barnstorming politicians who say whatever enters their mind and blame of the media? We’ll talk about it in Doug Jones Beats Roy Moore-Trump-Alabama-GOP Chaos-Podcast 685.

Trump Has To Take The Blame

The president, his former chief strategist and the republican party have suffered a stinging defeat. The idea was, go out and campaign for our guy because he is our guy and we can’t afford another ‘liberal’ democrat in the senate. Well, that is exactly what happened. President Trump has no one else to blame for this defeat, but himself.

(Editor’s Note: A late night meant I was a little fuzzy with my Senate numbers. With the GOP losing this seat they lose a vote in the Senate. Democrats gain one. So it’s GOP 51, DEM 49. Add two independents who caucus with democrats…and it’s 51 51. With a soft majority for the republicans – they don’t necessarily vote as a block – the future could be uphill for the President and Republicans.)

Sponsored by Ryan Plumbing and Heating of Saint Paul

Doug Jones Beats Roy Moore-Trump-Alabama-GOP Chaos-Podcast 685

 

 

 

 

 

 

Podcast 610-Davis & Davis Discuss Right Wing Political Correctness

Republican “Political Correctness” Is Now A Thing

Right wingers are thinkers. Open to new ideas. Right? Nope. There’s a new kind of “Political Correctness“. “Patriotic Correctness”. If you question right wing ideas and conclusions? Present a source not ‘approved’? Say something not part of the right wing mainstream? You’ll receive the same pressure to tow the line usually reserved for the left. In Podcast 610-Davis & Davis Discuss Right Wing Political Correctness.

Republican Win

Republicans are happy about their victory in 2016. Makes sense. Putting on blinders can be politically dangerous though. Andrew Davis is a film maker and reporter in Los Angeles. Bob Davis is a podcaster living in Minneapolis and Saint Paul. Father and son have discovered right wing political correctness at about the same time. Alex Nowrasteh of CATO is the subject of this father and son podcast. In Podcast 610-Davis & Davis Discuss Right Wing Political Correctness

Social Media

Say something that doesn’t support Trump? Tweet something raining on the republican parade? Insults and propaganda follow. Furthermore, ask for proof or supporting arguments you’ll get only right-wing approved links and comments. Seems like liberty people used to be about open discussion. Sadly, not any more apparently. It isn’t easy to talk about. We have to talk about the hard things. In Podcast 610-Davis & Davis Discuss Right Wing Political Correctness.

Alternate History

Rational right? Party of Reagan and Ron Paul? These days the right has it’s own media. It’s own history and narratives. Ask a question? Disagree? You’re a ‘democrat’, ‘communist’, ‘marxist’. Facts? Principles? Proof? Meme. Picture. Link. There! Shut up. These are reactions usually reserved for the political left. In conclusion we wonder what happened.

Socialist Construct For 70 Years

We have had big government since the 1930’s. Seems like we’re fighting over different sides of the same coin. If Patriotic Correctness demands loyalty to the right wing version of big government how does the right present an alternative? In conclusion, political correctness leads to tyranny. Especially relevant is the fact that it isn’t easy to point out. If you’re on the political right though, you have to point it out. Because most people are good, maybe it will do some good. In Podcast 610-Davis & Davis Discuss Right Wing Political Correctness.

Sponsored by X Government Cars.

 

Podcast 597-Pure Insanity

Trump Sets The Pace

In Podcast 597-Pure Insanity. Controversial executive orders. Cabinet confirmations. A Supreme Court nomination. The robust legislative agenda. Trump’s White House is setting the pace. Media and the partisan left is struggling to keep up. Any action taken by a republican is met with derision and a firestorm of social media reaction. Just mentioning a Trump initiative, executive order or tweet means an  argument. Scenarios of the death and destruction caused by all things Trump have reached hysterical levels.

Hysteria and Pure Insanity

Now it’s democrats talking about secession, impeachment and Coup d’etat. What is a coup? Why would the president plan a Coup against himself? There is no evidence of a Coup being planned against the United States government. Clearly those writing such things do not understand what a Coup really is. Dusting off an old French word to make the Trump administration seem darker and less legitimate is the goal. Defining the term and explaining why suggesting a Coup is an insult to your intelligence, is part of Podcast 597-Pure Insanity.

Cal-Exit

Talk of California seceding from the United States generated a lot of coverage. Remember when  right wingers talked up secession at the beginning of the Obama Presidency? Now it’s left wingers. Would California secede? Aside from the obvious question of legality, without California’s votes and money the chances of a democrat being elected President of the United States would be very low. So…

…Forget secession.

Trump will be impeached. Uh. No. Not unless democrats gain a majority in both houses of congress in 2018. Is it necessary to remind everyone Impeachment would result in the Presidency of Mike Pence? With no shortage of hate for the Vice President on social media and at protests, one wonders whether the overwrought and bereft left consider impeachment would leave them with an even more conservative president. Unfortunately it’s necessary to point this out in Podcast 597-Pure Insanity.

Why? Because They Can

Some have forgotten history and context and how the Representative Republic of the United States works. Some think cabinet positions are elected. Others don’t understand that while legislative minorities have rights, majorities do entitle control of committees, rules and certain appointments as well as the legislative agenda. Not only do republicans have legislative majorities the party controls the executive branch, many state legislatures and governor’s offices. While opposition and protest are the right of Americans maybe the opposition should be asking how did a supposedly dying GOP managed to garner these majorities? Is it possible some voters agree with them?

There are people in the United States happy with actions taken by the new president. They like his executive actions and his picks for the cabinet and his pick for the Supreme Court. They might even cheer when they hear Trump’s nominee for Education Secretary suggest government schools really aren’t doing a very good job and that competition in the form of vouchers and charter schools is a good thing. They are perfectly satisfied with the idea of cutting regulation and taxes. Despite the caterwauling on the left this is hardly a national crisis or the first glimmerings of American fascism.

Social Media Cesspool

In Podcast 597-Pure Insanity, nowhere is the left’s increasingly impotent rage more apparent than on social media. Memes, videos, live sessions, tweets, angry rants, de-friending and blocking. The Social Media Cesspool, with its misspelled signs confusion about history and how our government works has become a place where people post to live and live to post. A place where anger and extremism are encouraged. People wonder whether it will change. Will it? Why would it?

One thing social media is good for is cat and dog pictures and videos, performances of song and dance and all things pure and real. Maybe it’s time for everyone to take a step back, a break from the day to day news and social media and consider what is most important in life. Did you ever think you’d see the day when you would hope to see pictures of people’s dogs or see a performance of a song?

That day has come.

Sponsored by Ryan Plumbing and Heating Of Saint Paul, X Government Cars and Hydrus Performance.