Booming US Economy-Reality Check-Bob Davis Podcast 811

These days Trump cultists love to talk about the booming economy. Time for a reality check. Learn more in Booming US Economy-Reality Check-Bob Davis Podcast 811.

Under 3 Percent

Especially relevant are Gross Domestic Product numbers from the 4th quarter of 2018. The average for the whole year is predicted to be under three percent.

Cherry Picking Numbers

Boosters like to cherry pick statistics. I like good old Gross Domestic Product numbers. They are released at the end of every quarter. GDP performance for each fiscal year is pretty hard to ignore. Especially when people say this president has ‘fixed’ the economy and worked miracles.

Just Because You Do Well Doesn’t Mean The Economy Is Doing Well

Moreover if I’ve heard it once I have heard it a thousand times. Saying your business is doing well does not mean the economy as a whole is doing any better than it has. The latest retail performance is a good example. This distinction is important only because the president wants us to believe he “blows Ronald Reagan Away”.

Objective Legislative Achievements On Economy

In Booming US Economy-Reality Check-Bob Davis Podcast 811 I objectively list President Trump’s few legislative achievements when it comes to the economy as well as his executive orders concerning the economy.

Hardly A Boom

In 2017 the US Economy grew by 2.2 percent. First quarter of 2018 was 2.2 percent. Second quarter 4.2 percent. Third quarter 3.4 percent. Fourth quarter 2.6 percent. Hardly a boom.

Not Even As Good As Obama

In contrast, President Obama’s best year was 2015, at 2.9 percent. Obama also presided over one quarter of growth of 5.1 percent, followed by another quarter of 4.9 percent growth. Better than Trump’s best two quarters so far.

Actual GDP Numbers

First of all growth is growth and we’ll take it. However, because of republican claims of great economic success, it’s time for a reality check based on actual GDP numbers.

And Obama Wasn’t That Good Either

At issue are claims by the president and his supporters he has done a fantastic job. Truth is so far his numbers are still about the same as Obama’s, which weren’t very good either.

We Pale In Contrast To The Early 80’s, Mid and Early 1960’s and 1950’s

Even more, all the numbers in our time pale in contrast to performance above 7 percent in the 80’s, high six percent in the 60’s and above 8 percent in the 1950’s.

Contrast our time with the 1980’s, 1960’s, or 1950’s.

What we’re living through is not a boom.

Republican Doesn’t Mean Conservative Anymore

Finally a republican in the White House does not guarantee ‘conservative’ economic management. Pushing for a weak dollar. Borrowing to stimulate. Trade Protection. Adding trillions to the national debt. More debt and deficit spending for ‘infrastructure‘ don’t seem like ‘republican‘ ideas.

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Booming US Economy-Reality Check-Bob Davis Podcast 811

Stock Market Drop Forecast Crisis-Die By Market-Perspective-Podcast 699

Amazing what a two day rollercoaster ride in the stock market does? Perspective tends to focus our thinking. In Stock Market Drop Forecast Crisis-Die By Market-Perspective-Podcast 699.

Market Drops Provide Perspective

Recent ups and downs in the markets are a great thought starter. Sudden changes whether predictable or not, can provide some needed perspective.

Trump Stops Saying He Made Markets Sing

Most recently the market dropped 666 points during President Trump’s speech. On the next business day the Dow dropped more than a thousand points. Trump stopped saying he made the markets sing because of the drop.

Most noteworthy our national conversation shifted from what we did during the Super Bowl to the markets in one day. In the grand scheme of things one thousand points is not the end of the world. Maybe. We’ll talk about it in Stock Market Drop Forecast Crisis-Die By Market-Perspective-Podcast 699.

Grandpa And Crazy Uncle Joe Love Fox News

Suddenly the idea of Washington DC driving media coverage seems stale. Google Trends shows interest in political news barely makes it into the top twenty. The market drop is one of the top searched topics. Especially relevant are the demos for so called news channels. As they keep talking politics their viewership keeps getting older.

Younger adults aren’t spending their time with Sean Hannity. What’s more the topics they search for don’t include the Nunes Memo or the Russians. Find out why and what in Stock Market Drop Forecast Crisis-Die By Market-Perspective-Podcast 699.

The Narrative Is A Bill of Goods

A republican president wants to help business, goes the narrative. The economy will grow. The stock market proves it. Right? All the top CEO’s and business leaders are ready to invest. Just look at the market.

Wait! What?Ru

Trouble Ahead?

In conclusion, there’s an old saying that markets sometimes indicate trouble ahead. Consider the fact that a marketplace represents thousands of people and billions of decisions about what to buy and sell. Maybe the market knows something we don’t.

If true, the old saw that the market predicts the future might be onto something. If it is it’s a lot bigger than the Russian Dossier and FBI corruption.

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Stock Market Drop Forecast Crisis-Die By Market-Perspective-Podcast 699

 

 

Podcast 522-BobDavis Podcasts Radio Show 34

Podcast 522-BobDavis Podcasts Radio Show 34. A tumultuous week ends in chaos and violence . Two officer involved shootings, and a sniper attack on police in Dallas, Texas which killed and wounded several officers. Further threats against police. People saying absurd and terrible things with no basis in fact, and that’s just the elected officials. News anchors, talk radio hosts, people on social media hurling accusations, name calling, explanations of what happened (especially by those who were not there), and terrible information on all these stories. A woman live streams an extraordinary event and the first reaction by FaceBook and some citizens is that people should not have the ability to live stream or post videos that might be considered ‘offensive’ or ‘controversial’? The original plan for the radio show this week was to condense Podcast 521 into three more palatable segments:  A segment focused on the decision by the FBI not to recommend indictment in the Hillary Clinton email scandal, which seems to have surprised only so called conservatives. One focused on how ill served we are by the media in general and a segment focused on a story no one is reporting; the financial situation internationally and the potential for a major breakdown due to the bad decisions that have been made by leaders on the economy. After delaying production of Podcast 522-BobDavis Podcasts Radio Show 34 to wait for more details on the big stories to break, I decided to change the opening segment and continue with the plan. Oddly enough, it all seemed to fit together. There are many problems in our society, but one of the big ones is how our media is not up to the task of dealing with the kinds of stories we’re seeing this week. Rather than investigate and report news, it advocates. Rather than investigate and advance the story so we’re better informed, it leaves that to cheeky types who yell at each other around a so-called roundtable, or interviews bystanders and calls it coverage. The population as a whole does not have the patience to learn the contours of an issue, is keen to argue and defend a position without any real knowledge on these stories, and social media seems to magnify the worst traits of the human character. Previous podcasts have discussed the possibility of unpredictable events to change our lives irrevocably. After what happened this week, I feel even more strongly that the black swan is just below the horizon. Sponsored by X Government Cars and Hydrus.