Will-Corona-Quarantine-Cause-Depression?-Bob Davis Podcast 913

Will Corona Quarantine Cause A Depression?

These days the word depression has begun to appear in the news. Especially relevant? We’re talking about economic depression because business is pretty much shut down. Will the Corona Quarantine Cause Depression? Learn more in Will-Corona-Quarantine-Cause-Depression?-Bob Davis Podcast 913.

Uncharted Waters

We’re in uncharted waters due to the pandemic. No nation has ever brought its economy to full stop in such a short period of time.

Biggest Reduction In Economic Growth Ever

Even more major banks are predicting at least a 25 percent reduction in US output in the first quarter.

Bigger Than The Great Depression

This is unprecedented even in the darkest days of the Great Depression back in the 1930’s.

What’s Done Is Done

While we can ask whether this was a good idea, what’s done is done.

Can We Hit Pause? Or will The Corona Quarantine Cause Depression?

Seems like people think you can ‘hit pause’. Come back in thirty, sixty, ninety or one hundred twenty days. Hit ‘play’ and everything will be fine.

Real Life

But above all, this is real life. Even though it seems like we’re in a movie, we’re not.

We May Not Be Able To Easily Restart

Economies may not start easily once they are shut down. Moreover the central banks have been running very loose monetary policies for years. I’ve done a lot of podcasts about this. The central banks may not have much ammunition left. I’ll tell you what this means in Will-Corona-Quarantine-Cause-Depression?-Bob Davis Podcast 913.

What About Actions Government Has Taken?

As a result of ordered lock downs the government has taken action in the last week or so.

Interest Rates Slashed

The federal reserve slashed interest rates twice. The effective interest rate is now zero.

Another 2 Trillion of Relief On The Way

A 2 trillion dollar relief package is working its way through congress.

One Thousand Dollar Checks

We’re all supposed to get one thousand dollar a month checks as needed.

Why Are They Doing This?

Certainly there’s a reason for all of this. It has to do with what a depression is and what causes it. I’ll explain it in Will-Corona-Quarantine-Cause-Depression?-Bob Davis Podcast 913. Are we there yet? Time will tell.

Making It Better…Or Worse

Finally in the end economists and policy makers will sift through whatever wreckage is left and tell us whether the measures taken now made things better or worse.

Short Deep Recession or Depression

In conclusion whether we have a short and deep recession or a world wide economic disaster known as a depression depends on what our leaders do now.

Out of Our Hands

It sure seems to me like it’s out of our hands.

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Will-Corona-Quarantine-Cause-Depression?-Bob Davis Podcast 913

Blood-In-The-Streets-Yet?-Bob Davis Podcast 909

Blood In The Streets

First of all the phrase ‘blood in the streets’ means you buy when everything goes to hell, learn more in Blood-In-The-Streets-Yet?-Bob Davis Podcast 909. Second of all you have to wonder if we’re getting to that point.

Predicting The Future Is For Suckers

I don’t like predicting the future. I like to wait and see what happens and consequently make judgements.

Streets Are Sensitive To Shocks

On the other hand word travels fast these days. We’re very sensitive to shock. We often are responding at the same time leaders are responding. Long before any in depth facts can be determined.

Perception Is Reality

Moreover in this environment the old saw ‘Perception Is Reality‘ is more true than ever.

Wait and See

I am often asked what I think of some political development. Joe Biden’s ‘sudden surge’. The ‘Super Tuesday‘ results. I still think ‘wait and see’ is the best approach.

Markets Rule The Roost Right Now

Especially relevant now is the course Coronavirus will take. More importantly the economic effects triggered by the real time reactions to the virus.

Each Podcast Needs Clarification

I have been podcasting about just these topics. Furthermore it seems like each podcast needs more clarification.

Primaries and Candidates

In Blood-In-The-Streets-Yet?-Bob Davis Podcast 909 there’s clarification and amplification. There is also most noteworthy additional thoughts about the primaries and potential presidential candidates.

It’s A Long Way To November

Finally we have a long way to go until early November when we actually vote for candidates and initiatives in local, state, house and senate elections. And when we cast our preference for president.

Electoral College Or Congress?

Even more it will be mid December when the electoral college will choose a president. Or, God forbid, the US Congress. A lot can happen between now and then.

About That Blood In The Streets Question

Maybe it would be better to return to the question at the beginning of this blog. Is there blood in the streets yet? And what does it mean.

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Blood-In-The-Streets-Yet?-Bob Davis Podcast 909

 

 

Fearmonger-Fishmonger-Virusmonger-Bob Davis Podcast 908

What’s a Monger Dad?

First of all a monger is someone who deals in something. These days with Coronavirus you might find yourself being called a fearmonger. Learn more in Fearmonger-Fishmonger-Virusmonger-Bob Davis Podcast 908.

Virus Fear

Especially relevant is my most recent podcast. I said if the virus causes an economic slowdown it would limit the President’s shot for a second term.

Not Just The Market

Moreover I did not base my analysis on the stock market. I know full well ups and downs will happen everyday until Covid-19 runs its course.

Things Should ALWAYS Go Smoothly Right?

I want to talk about how we expect things to go smoothly no matter what.

Always Right…Never Wrong

In addition, time to talk about how predictions about a developing story having to be one hundred percent correct all the time.

Fake News!

Most noteworthy, politicians who demonize media that doesn’t follow the party line. Fake News! Lies! Political Agenda!

Nothing To See Here Folks

Also the idea that ‘professionals’ are in charge. There’s nothing to worry about here! Just go back to your homes and wait for further instructions.

Projecting An Air Of Confidence

These days public and corporate officials project an air of confidence and competency.

Consequently our companies and governments maintain a a veneer of perfection publicly.

What happens when smart people make things go wrong? Check it out in Fearmonger-Fishmonger-Virusmonger-Bob Davis Podcast 908.

Cascade To Crisis

We’re on top of this! Nothing to worry about! Then, the unexpected cascade into crisis.

How do we react when the ‘super competent’ are swamped?

Complex Developing Crises

In conclusion don’t be so quick to judge someone’s takeaway today. Tomorrow they might be right. Especially when it comes to complex and developing crises.

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Fearmonger-Fishmonger-Virusmonger-Bob Davis Podcast 908