2020-Stealth-Battleground-Issues-Bob Davis Podcast 883

2020 Issues In The Midwest

I promised a more details about battleground political issues in the last podcast. Seems like no one wants to focus on the real issues in the Midwest. Time to do that in 2020-Stealth-Battleground-Issues-Bob Davis Podcast 883.

Battleground States No One on TV Ever Goes To

Even more you hear a lot about the so called ‘battleground states‘. In contrast all the reporting is about Washington DC!

BackRoads

Consequently I decided to take a trip across America’s Heartland. On Back Roads. Click here for those podcasts.

Sick Of The News

First of all if people I talked to said they were sick and tired of political news.

War Weariness

The most noteworthy conclusion of this podcast might end up being ‘war weariness’ when it comes to politics.

Same Song Over and Over

Seems like political news coverage is becoming like that song you hear on the radio over and over again. It used to be your favorite but if you hear it one more time, you’re going to scream.

Stealth Issues In The Heartland

Especially relevant are several ‘stealth’ issues across the heartland.

Prosperity

What’s the definition of ‘prosperity‘?

Right To Work

What about National Right To Work movements, versus Unions in key states.

Foreign Direct Investment and Trade Issues

In addition many jobs are being provided by Foreign Direct Investment. And by Foreign companies manufacturing in the US.

Jobs

Then, maybe there are more jobs, but what kinds of jobs?

Feeling Prosperous As Good As Being Prosperous?

That said, a job means you can pay rent and buy something for yourself. Regardless of what pundits might regard sub par. Back to that feeling of prosperity which might be just as important as being prosperous for some. Learn more in 2020-Stealth-Battleground-Issues-Bob Davis Podcast 883.

Development In The Midwest and Mid South Changing Electorate

Finally development in the mid south and Midwest means smaller cities are becoming larger cities. That means pressure to turn state roads into freeways, freeways into interstates.

Corporate Farming

Also what about the emergence of corporate farming as opposed to family farms?

Decay In Old Downtown Areas

Moreover there are many examples of what happens when the new freeway goes through, and local businesses are left to die.

Government Handing Out Subsidies

Most important is growth created by US Government spending and subsidies. Not just in big urban centers but on the farm and in small towns too.

Health Insurance

Think people can afford 1600 dollars a month for health insurance when they’re working hourly jobs? A gifted politician will not miss this opportunity.

Obsessed With Washington DC

A lot of this is just below the surface. The media is obsessed with twitter and hearing rooms in the Capitol. This year’s election might be too close to call right now. What they miss might have powerful and unexpected effects in the 2020 election.

Sponsored by Ryan Plumbing and Heating of Saint Paul

2020-Stealth-Battleground-Issues-Bob Davis Podcast 883

 

Toss Up House Elections 2018-Part 4-Podcast 756

As I do the last two podcasts in the toss up series at the Bob Davis Podcasts, more predictions of a democrat wave are most notable. Are these predictions true? We’ll find out in Toss Up House Elections 2018-Part 4-Podcast 756.

Shellacking

In addition to commentators AP reported this week that republican pollsters are telling top republicans they’re in for a shellacking in November.

As a mission of the Bob Davis Podcasts I have been looking at those elections deemed ‘toss ups’ by the experts.

Conventional Wisdom Is Right Until Wrong

Especially relevant is the idea behind the mission. No predictions. Non partisan. What is the situation in these key districts in the final weeks of the election. Readers, subscribers and listeners might be surprised to learn very few public polls exist. Conventional wisdom drives most of these predictions. I detail this for each toss up in Toss Up House Elections 2018-Part 4-Podcast 756.

Close Elections Don’t Always Mean Flips

From North Carolina to Texas in Toss Up House Elections 2018-Part 4-Podcast 756. Toss up races are simply close elections for whatever reason. Moreover most US House elections are in solid democrat or republican districts. This year some say there are more than 40 districts that will be close. Why they’re close is key.

Open Seats And Changing Geography

In some cases the district is an open seat because of retirements. In other cases, the contours of the district’s geography have changed. What was once a solid republican or democrat district is now supposedly more ‘balanced’.

Everyone Hates Congress…

Finally the real question in the 2018 midterms is whether people will vote their opinions of the president or local concerns. The old saying goes, everyone hates congress but not their congressman.

One Size Fits All Election?

In conclusion I spent a fair amount of time not only looking through the data for these districts but also watching some of the internet and TV ads for candidates. Sometimes it’s hard to tell the republican from the democrat. This is not a one size fits all election even though the media would have its viewers believe it is.

Once I finish this series in this podcast, and the next, I’ll do one more podcast with my analysis since there isn’t much time for that in these podcasts dealing with individual districts.

Sponsored by John D Scott Personal Injury Lawyer and the Water Butler Water Purification Systems

Toss Up House Elections 2018-Part 4-Podcast 756

 

Toss Up House Elections 2018-Part 3-Minnesota-Podcast 755

A series of podcasts dedicated to the so called toss up races for the Senate, Governors and House in 2018’s Midterm Election. Most notable in Part 3 are Minnesota’s toss ups. Find out why in Toss Up House Elections 2018-Part 3-Minnesota-Podcast 755.

Dive Deep

These days podcasters can dive deep by doing a series of podcasts on one subject. One of my missions at the Bob Davis Podcasts is to provide the antidote to the prattling and predictions.

So I am diving deep!

What IS a Toss Up?

It’s especially relevant that I am reviewing the data and details about states and districts for this series. One of my takeaways is what political scientists and commentators view as a toss up is entirely up to their judgement.

One man’s toss up is another man’s lean republican, or lean democrat.

Story Lines Are Click Bait and Influence Voters

My issue is these predictions create their own story lines. These ‘predictions’ can influence voters negatively.

This Year’s Story Line

This year the story line is republicans will lose the House and Senate and some Governorships because of the antics of President Donald Trump. Is this true?

Learn more in Toss Up House Elections 2018-Part 3-Minnesota-Podcast 755.

Minnesota Center Stage

In 2018 Minnesotans elect a Governor, two Senators and eight Congressman. There are also contested statewide races like Attorney General and State Auditor. Moreover Senator Tina Smith is running in her first election after Governor Dayton appointed her to the Senate. We have a lot going on in our state.

Finally so called experts say there are four toss up races in Minnesota this year. Two democrat and two traditionally republican House districts.

Find out if I think it is true in Toss Up House Elections 2018-Part 3-Minnesota-Podcast 755.

No Predictions No Partisanship

In conclusion I don’t make predictions or try to make the data ‘lean’ on way or another. I don’t make judgements based on rumors in these districts. I give you the existing data on the district and let you make your own prediction.

Listen To This Series. Know What To Watch For On Election Night

Bottom line, if you listen to this series of podcasts on election night, you’ll know where to look and what races to watch to make an informed prediction about the election’s outcome and what it may or may not mean.

(Editor’s Note: Heads up if you’re using Ballotpedia to check presidential voting stats for individual house districts. One set of data in particular has caused problems for me. A drop down chart purporting to show house election results by HOUSE district is in fact by STATE HOUSE district, In the case of the second district this showed a huge advantage for Trump. It is only in state HOUSE districts, apparently and not overall. A similar chart from the Daily Koz, ON the Daily Koz shows actual house districts and a much closer result. Still a win for Trump in the 2nd in 2016. Despite this update, I still feel the toss up race in 2018 will be in Minnesota’s 3rd district. I did not use this data set for every house race. I don’t think it changes whether a district leans one way or another or is a toss up since I based my analysis on other factors.)

Sponsored by The Water Butler Water Purification Systems and John D Scott Personal Injury Lawyer

Toss Up House Elections 2018-Part 3-Minnesota-Podcast 755