Early-Election-Advisory-2020-Bob Davis Podcast 836

A Year Away And It’s Already Started

The 2020 election is more than a year away. Time and distance doesn’t stop the predictions about who’s running. Even more, who’s going to win. Time to come back to Earth in Early-Election-Advisory-2020-Bob Davis Podcast 836.

Sorry State Of Politics

One of the themes of my podcasts is the sorry state of politics in the United States. First of all our politics these days are driven completely by media. Social media. Cable News Channels. YouTube. Podcasting. All partisan. Usually owned by rich political operators.

Don’t Trust Everything You Read

Moreover it’s all about persuasion. Nothing we see or hear can be trusted.

Confirmation Bias

Tell us what they want to hear.

Make us feel good about it.

What I Won’t Do

Due to advocacy media, seems like the best thing I can do is tell you what I won’t do when it comes to coverage of election 2020. This kind of coverage is a great opportunity for independent voices.

Manipulation Is The Media’s Business

Certainly all the commentators and talking heads are busy convincing us of a point of view. Predicting the future, making assumptions on rumor and innuendo are the tools they use to manipulate viewers. Learn more in Early-Election-Advisory-2020-Bob Davis Podcast 836.

The Borg

Meanwhile local, state and the federal government take in huge sums of money and we don’t seem to have any control over how it’s spent. Consequently more of us feel government is the Borg. We can’t understand it, much less control it. And increasingly we don’t like this feeling.

No Predictions

Therefore with over 25 candidates for the presidency the best service I can provide is to steadfastly avoid predictions and identify my own biases.

Can’t Stand Any of Them

Finally, that doesn’t mean I can’t appreciate political skill. campaign wins and losses, political brinkmanship or propaganda. I just refuse to jump in on one side or another. I also refuse to predict the future and predict outcomes. Especially outcomes based on polls.

See It For What It Is

In conclusion, I have found the best way to learn what “The American People” might be thinking, is travel and actually covering these political events.

Sponsored by Reliafund Payment Processors and WhiteTail Builders of Andover Minnesota

Early-Election-Advisory-2020-Bob Davis Podcast 836

 

 

Toss Up House Elections 2018-Part 5-Podcast 757

What kind of a news environment are we in these days? A video of a TV reporter struggling against hurricane winds while people walk calmly behind him has gone viral. ‘Fake Wind’ is the latest example of how media covers ‘news’. Are they off base when it comes to politics? Find out in Toss Up House Elections 2018-Part 5-Podcast 757.

All The Toss Up Races All The Time

At the conclusion of this series I have reviewed specific data for Senate, Governors and House elections considered ‘toss ups’ in 2018. Especially relevant is the question of what actual polling data exists, facts about the district and candidates in each of these elections.

These podcasts include much of what I learned. Now you have the same information I have in Toss Up House Elections 2018-Part 5-Podcast 757.

Final Analysis Coming

I’ll do a final analysis in the next podcast. In addition there will be no predictions. No campaigning for a candidate. I think it is very difficult right now given the facts to make predictions about what will happen on November 6th 2018. That’s why they call them ‘close’ elections. You have to wait and see what the outcome will be.

Tons of Toss Ups All Over The Country

These toss up districts and statewide races are all over the country. There are older and younger people running. Men and Women. There are good democrat and republican candidates and a few libertarians and constitution party folks too. Moreover there are some truly funny characteristics to some of the candidates and situations in these districts.

No ‘Fake Wind’ Here

In conclusion it’s time we had political coverage that doesn’t ‘sell’ conclusions to keep people watching and listening. Coverage that doesn’t try to convince you to vote one way or another. No fake wind.

Finally, guess what every election depends on? Who votes. It’s that simple.

Sponsored by Water Butler Water Purification Systems and John D. Scott Personal Injury Lawyer

Toss Up House Elections 2018-Part 5-Podcast 757

Toss Up House Elections 2018-Part 4-Podcast 756

As I do the last two podcasts in the toss up series at the Bob Davis Podcasts, more predictions of a democrat wave are most notable. Are these predictions true? We’ll find out in Toss Up House Elections 2018-Part 4-Podcast 756.

Shellacking

In addition to commentators AP reported this week that republican pollsters are telling top republicans they’re in for a shellacking in November.

As a mission of the Bob Davis Podcasts I have been looking at those elections deemed ‘toss ups’ by the experts.

Conventional Wisdom Is Right Until Wrong

Especially relevant is the idea behind the mission. No predictions. Non partisan. What is the situation in these key districts in the final weeks of the election. Readers, subscribers and listeners might be surprised to learn very few public polls exist. Conventional wisdom drives most of these predictions. I detail this for each toss up in Toss Up House Elections 2018-Part 4-Podcast 756.

Close Elections Don’t Always Mean Flips

From North Carolina to Texas in Toss Up House Elections 2018-Part 4-Podcast 756. Toss up races are simply close elections for whatever reason. Moreover most US House elections are in solid democrat or republican districts. This year some say there are more than 40 districts that will be close. Why they’re close is key.

Open Seats And Changing Geography

In some cases the district is an open seat because of retirements. In other cases, the contours of the district’s geography have changed. What was once a solid republican or democrat district is now supposedly more ‘balanced’.

Everyone Hates Congress…

Finally the real question in the 2018 midterms is whether people will vote their opinions of the president or local concerns. The old saying goes, everyone hates congress but not their congressman.

One Size Fits All Election?

In conclusion I spent a fair amount of time not only looking through the data for these districts but also watching some of the internet and TV ads for candidates. Sometimes it’s hard to tell the republican from the democrat. This is not a one size fits all election even though the media would have its viewers believe it is.

Once I finish this series in this podcast, and the next, I’ll do one more podcast with my analysis since there isn’t much time for that in these podcasts dealing with individual districts.

Sponsored by John D Scott Personal Injury Lawyer and the Water Butler Water Purification Systems

Toss Up House Elections 2018-Part 4-Podcast 756