Toss Up House Elections 2018-Part 3-Minnesota-Podcast 755

A series of podcasts dedicated to the so called toss up races for the Senate, Governors and House in 2018’s Midterm Election. Most notable in Part 3 are Minnesota’s toss ups. Find out why in Toss Up House Elections 2018-Part 3-Minnesota-Podcast 755.

Dive Deep

These days podcasters can dive deep by doing a series of podcasts on one subject. One of my missions at the Bob Davis Podcasts is to provide the antidote to the prattling and predictions.

So I am diving deep!

What IS a Toss Up?

It’s especially relevant that I am reviewing the data and details about states and districts for this series. One of my takeaways is what political scientists and commentators view as a toss up is entirely up to their judgement.

One man’s toss up is another man’s lean republican, or lean democrat.

Story Lines Are Click Bait and Influence Voters

My issue is these predictions create their own story lines. These ‘predictions’ can influence voters negatively.

This Year’s Story Line

This year the story line is republicans will lose the House and Senate and some Governorships because of the antics of President Donald Trump. Is this true?

Learn more in Toss Up House Elections 2018-Part 3-Minnesota-Podcast 755.

Minnesota Center Stage

In 2018 Minnesotans elect a Governor, two Senators and eight Congressman. There are also contested statewide races like Attorney General and State Auditor. Moreover Senator Tina Smith is running in her first election after Governor Dayton appointed her to the Senate. We have a lot going on in our state.

Finally so called experts say there are four toss up races in Minnesota this year. Two democrat and two traditionally republican House districts.

Find out if I think it is true in Toss Up House Elections 2018-Part 3-Minnesota-Podcast 755.

No Predictions No Partisanship

In conclusion I don’t make predictions or try to make the data ‘lean’ on way or another. I don’t make judgements based on rumors in these districts. I give you the existing data on the district and let you make your own prediction.

Listen To This Series. Know What To Watch For On Election Night

Bottom line, if you listen to this series of podcasts on election night, you’ll know where to look and what races to watch to make an informed prediction about the election’s outcome and what it may or may not mean.

(Editor’s Note: Heads up if you’re using Ballotpedia to check presidential voting stats for individual house districts. One set of data in particular has caused problems for me. A drop down chart purporting to show house election results by HOUSE district is in fact by STATE HOUSE district, In the case of the second district this showed a huge advantage for Trump. It is only in state HOUSE districts, apparently and not overall. A similar chart from the Daily Koz, ON the Daily Koz shows actual house districts and a much closer result. Still a win for Trump in the 2nd in 2016. Despite this update, I still feel the toss up race in 2018 will be in Minnesota’s 3rd district. I did not use this data set for every house race. I don’t think it changes whether a district leans one way or another or is a toss up since I based my analysis on other factors.)

Sponsored by The Water Butler Water Purification Systems and John D Scott Personal Injury Lawyer

Toss Up House Elections 2018-Part 3-Minnesota-Podcast 755

Podcast 486

Republicans Need To Grow Up. As Ted Cruz ‘steals’ Colorado’s delegates to the RNC, Trump supporters throw a fit. If the Republicans lose the 2016 presidential election it won’t be the so called establishment’s fault. If the Republicans lose the 2016 presidential election it won’t even be the candidate’s fault. If the Republicans lose the 2016 presidential election, and its Senate majority it will be the Republican Rank and File voter’s fault. If this week’s tantrums are any example, Republicans Need To Grow Up. And soon. These podcasts have stated again and again that people voting in so called presidential primaries are not selecting a candidate. Candidate selection is done at the convention, by convention delegates. As Donald Trump and his supporters rage about the system being rigged its time for some truth telling. Yes, children, the system is rigged. If you want to change it you are going to have to take over the system. Unfortunately the GOP rank and file is filled with people who have a shocking lack of depth on issues, a breathtaking ignorance on context and the emotional maturity of an eighth grader (and that’s being kind), and no stomach for the hard work political change requires. Voting in elections is not enough. Change requires people be wiling to serve, not stand up at meetings and talk about ‘messaging’. The Republican party is populated with a majority of people who think an argument is an insult, a meme, a video someone else posted five years ago, a discussion on FaceBook that lasts all of two exchanges, the last one something along the lines of, “You love Obama”, or “You’re voting for Hillary, aren’t you?”. These people — and there are a lot of them — do not have the emotional maturity or political knowledge to win a presidential election. Period. They aren’t able to argue, or reason. They aren’t ‘conservatives’, they can’t even define what a ‘conservative’ is. Republicans are Tories, concerned about the future but still loyal to the crown. In this podcast someone actually defines the political spectrum in terms that make sense, and explains why republicans and democrats don’t seem to have a problem with government solutions and socialism. If you really want to change things, its going to take more than being angry. Sponsored by Hydrus and Brush Studio in the West End, Saint Louis Park, Mn.

Podcast 475

Fight For Your Caucus. Web Designer, Senate District Chair and CD5 Secretary Mitch Rossow joins the podcast to talk about the latest misguided initiative by mainstream republicans in Minnesota. State Representative Steve Garofalo and others want to get rid of the caucuses in Minnesota. Oddly enough, before Super Tuesday, the reason for getting rid of the caucus system was low participation. On Super Tuesday Minnesota experienced a record turnout for its caucuses. So now, apparently, there are too many people caucusing. Isn’t that what we want? Seems like the truth is those in power don’t like the caucus system because it allows for the grass roots to develop new leaders. Critics say the caucuses are too ‘inside’, but aren’t the critics the real insiders? It would be so much easier if the goons in Saint Paul picked party leaders and candidates rather than the citizens. The caucus is one of the few opportunities average citizens have to participate in and influence the political process. Democrats in the state are concerned about this initiative, since the late Senator Paul Wellstone developed the movement that ultimately put him in office through this channel. Mitch Rossow has developed a precinct organization training program, and a training program for caucus conveners. Precinct organizing is the next step after caucuses and its the quickest way for citizens to take back their local representation and eventually state legislature and statewide offices. The enemy of the Republican is the Republican. While Democrats in the state post training videos well before caucuses, and have programs to bring volunteers in to help their caucus attendees understand the process, republicans never got around to doing much of anything to help local precincts with their caucuses. Now they want to do away with it entirely. Moral of the story; the MNGOP talks a lot about democracy and inclusiveness, but doesn’t walk the talk. One wonders what it is that they actually do; Not much of anything. Most of the time the state party is whining and asking the local political units for help. On the DFL side, it’s the reverse. Maybe there a lesson there for the entrenched perfumed princes, hidden behind a security wall at their office in Cedar Riverside. What a joke. With so many new participants this year, maybe a new crop of leaders is being harvested. It can’t happen soon enough. Sponsored by Ryan Plumbing and Heating and X Government Cars.

Podcast 473

Super Tuesday. Final thoughts from Norman, Oklahoma as this Road Trip draws to a close, On the eve of Super Tuesday, 2016. A dozen or so states and territories have primaries or caucuses scheduled for democrat and republican parties. The media has covered — and will continue to cover — this primary season like a general election and now we have arrived at the second big day after Iowa’s Caucuses a month or so ago … Super Tuesday. For people wondering who to vote for. For people who think this is the actual election. For people who believe the charlatans on talk radio, and the talking heads on TV, and the blow hards at the local political meetings telling you what you should do; Some points to ground you. This is not a general election. These candidates are running to amass delegates to the party convention. Delegates who probably won’t even vote to nominate the candidate they may or may not be pledged to when the final vote for the nomination comes at the end of the mainline party conventions this summer. Candidates are coming to your state and your town to talk to the movers and shakers in the parties, and they’re making deals behind the scenes while the media covers the little shows they put on for the public called ‘retail political’ events. They’re all the same. Meanwhile our news media focuses on personalities, innuendo, open fights, name calling and other antics. Why? It’s the fire on the prairie, the war in the mountains. It’s what produces clicks and views and it’s what keeps the perfumed princes of media in their chairs, and in five thousand dollar suits and one thousand dollar shoes. The country needs new thinking, new ideas and new action to bring in the new economy that is out there, coming into the world, whether the czars in Washington and New York and Hollywood, and Silicon Valley want it. We need a government that protects our constitutional rights and secures our defense, and does little else. We need policies that free the individual, provide economic opportunity for everyone, and gets out of our way. Is this represented in the political mess that is the ‘primary election cycle 2016’? Sponsored by Pride of Homes and X Government Cars

PODCAST 460

Travel Madness. When is a presidential campaign like traveling? When things don’t go as planned. Which is pretty much what travel is. Live coverage of the ‘Primary’ season in Election 2016 starts with a late trip to Iowa, arriving in Des Moines at midnight, on the eve of the presidential debate that was supposed to happen, except for Donald J. Trump throwing a wrench into the plans. At the same time, this wayfaring podcaster struggles to pull all the nifty new elements added to podcast command together. At the time I did this podcast — 1 in the morning — I had just learned by unlimited data plan did not allow for a hot spot, a system I plan to use to upload podcasts from wherever, whenever. Having purchased a brand new iPhone 6, and as excited as a kid playing with a new video game, I was very disappointed to say the least. Not being one of those people who throw company names around, and complain, I decided to wait until morning and call my friend at the store, which at the time of this writing I have done. Some adjustments later, and guess what? Houston, we have remote upload capability! The election, and all those working to bring this debate to Iowans tonight seems to be going through the same kind of process. You can plan forever, but when things start going wrong you have to just work through the problems. A theme in these podcasts is the fact that the media has gone off the rails covering this election. It seems like the Media has become the story, which may be one of the reasons Trump is pulling the plug. Or at least he says he is pulling the plug. Fox News said this morning they expect only about 1-2 million viewers for the debates here tonight if Trump doesn’t show up, and that’s what’s important right? Not the voters of Iowa, who tend to throw the established ‘prognosticators’ for a loop in every cycle, right? Not the issues, which is what the vaunted Fourth Estate is supposed to be reporting on, right? So, word to the wise. Plan, but prepare to change and adapt. Sponsored by Hydrus Performance, Pride of Homes and Luke Team Real Estate

Podcast 458

Not George Washington. With the Iowa Caucuses less than a week away, political prognosticators have finally gone off the rails. This week’s poster child for idiocy goes to the talk show host who claims Texas Senator Ted Cruz is ‘The New George Washington’. How is the ‘endorsement’ of candidates from personalities, talk show hosts and commentators different from endorsements that come from governors, senators and candidates who are exiting the race? How has the endorsing of candidates by talk show hosts hurt talk radio? Ted Cruz is Not George Washington, but that fact doesn’t stop charlatans from saying so. Why do they do it? It’s a desperate quest for something called ‘relevance’, which is yet another example of the talk radio cesspool. This podcast has been steadfast in not supporting any candidate for president in 2016. The penchant commentators have this year, to influence voters to support candidates based only on polling data, is shameful. Moreover, participation in primaries and caucuses is very low. The result of primaries and caucuses this spring and summer have more to do with the nominating conventions for both mainline parties than the general election. Despite this fact, talk radio and the media are already making predictions and issuing endorsements for the presidency? The victors in the first few primaries or caucuses, at least on the republican side, are usually not the nominee. The only reasonable conclusion is that commentators are manipulating their listeners and voters for their own gain; a sad feature of a presidential cycle already off the rails. You can imagine how the real election will be reported. This podcaster is not going to endorse anyone for president, since all of them are more like Nucky Thompson than anything approaching George Washington. Sponsored by Pride of Homes and Luke Team Real Estate and Hydrus.

Podcast 455

Impeach the Con Con. All hands will be required on deck to win the 2016 election. Caucuses and Primary Elections produce low voter participation. What is the tea party doing? Sending out petitions to impeach President Obama and calling for a constitutional convention to pass a grab bag of wacky amendments. In 2012, only about 7 percent of Iowans participated in precinct caucuses. Sadly, in Minnesota, which depends on caucuses for political volunteers to turn out the vote, turn out in 2012 was in the single digit range. Tea Partiers may be ‘angry’ and ‘frustrated’ with Congressman Tom Emmer and Speaker Kurt Daudt, but are so busy with the Obama Impeachment, they don’t have candidates to oppose either. Meanwhile Democrats are already door knocking and asking for contributions for a surfeit of candidates. Barack Obama leaves office on January 20th, 2017. Then there is a pesky detail that if an impeachment, guilty verdict and removal from office could be accomplished during a presidential election year, Joe Biden would be president of the United States. The constitutional convention idea, pitched several times in the last 60 years, is currently championed by talk show hosts, who apparently think delegates to such a convention would only be Tea Party members from deep red states like Texas and Kansas. Think California, New York, Illinois, Massachusetts and Minnesota would send conservatives? If you wonder why the conservative movement in this country is dead, look no further than this kind of folly. It’s a sad waste of people earnestly concerned about their country’s future. Help turn out the vote? Build an organization with lasting political power? Forget it. Sponsored by X Government Trucks and Ryan Plumbing and Heating.

Podcast 443

Do Something! Sick of Obama? Do something about it. Lots of emails from Bob Davis Podcast Subscribers asking for podcasts answering the President’s address to the nation last night. How about doubling the voter turn out in your neighborhood by organizing your precinct? You can bitch and moan about Obama this, and Obama that, or you can do something about it. In this podcast Political Activist Mitch Rossow introduces his new precinct organizing training program. This is a longer than normal podcast that tells you how to organize your neighborhood to win. We’re not talking about events. We’re not talking about lit drops. We’re not talking about messaging or attending your local Basic Political Unit Meeting. From the caucuses up, every citizen (in Minnesota at least) has an almost open road to become a precinct activist and having a direct impact on the 2016 election cycle. So, people have two choices. They can sit on Facebook and shake their heads, tweet a snarky analysis of the President’s speech, listen to another lecture about Jesus and The American Republic at a Tea Party meeting, or you can actually stand up and do something real. Mitch is ready to do Precinct Organizing Training Workshops. He can show you how to double the republican turn out in your precinct in one hour, and give you the tools to do it. Yelling and screaming, posting on social media, tweeting, being frustrated and angry isn’t going to win the election. Only organizing will. Let’s get to work. Sponsored by X Government Trucks and Ryan Plumbing and Heating of Saint Paul.

Podcast 424

Retail Politics. The 2016 presidential election cycle isn’t yet in the primaries, but campaigns have locked in their rhetoric. Speakers are throwing out red meat at small gatherings of potential voters and political actives across the country, especially in the early caucus and primary states. This podcast takes you inside a political event in Minnesota where a surrogate for the Ted Cruz For President Campaign — The Senator’s Father — makes a speech. Sorry? Did you think these events would include substance, discussion of the issues, details on how to achieve goals, and detailed analysis of opponents? Media focus, polling, ‘cattle call’ debates, a desperate need for money to fuel bare bones campaigns, and propel candidates to the top of the heap before a single vote has been cast, has all but destroyed ‘discussion’ and ‘substance’. It may be early, but it’s already all about firing up the hopeful, the political active, getting the contribution, getting people on the email list, jumping on the plane or bus, and heading to the next event. Even local supporters and state legislators at the event are ‘on message’. The problem with retail politics and red meat is, do people have any better idea of what the candidates actually will do? What is a conservative? What is the plan for the country and why? What do Republicans stand for? Listen and find out. Sponsored by X Government Trucks and Pride of Homes and Luke Team Real Estate. 

Podcast 421

Ignore The Polls. We are awash in polling data early in the 2016 election cycle, enabling politics to be covered like sports. In sports though, teams actually play the games, generating the scores and statistics. Champions emerge during and at the end of the season based on real results. The media, political pollsters and charlatans are deciding what candidates we’ll listen to, and perhaps vote for based on political opinion surveys called ‘polls’, not to be confused with voting. When people actually vote, or caucus, then it will generate actual data. In the meantime, why don’t they consult astrologers and tarot card readers, because it would be just as reliable and accurate as political opinion surveys. Conversations over the weekend convinced me to do another polling podcast, to explain what it is, what its limitations are, and why you are better off reading a book or raking leaves, than watching the soothsayers on Fox News. No, the poll that shows Trump in the lead does not mean a ‘plurality’ of ‘voters’ want Trump. Yes he could win a general election, so could Hillary Clinton, or any other potential candidate if conditions are right. One thing is for sure; Once people actually vote and caucus there will be surprises. There will be surprises through the primary season, conventions, until the actual election on November 8th, 2016. Or not. The travesty is that we allow television networks, pollsters, and the cartoonery of pundits and loud mouths to decide for us who debates, who wins, and who polls. The result is someone — maybe the exact wrong person — ends up in charge of the most expensive and dangerous government in the world. Are you alright with Fox, CNN, and MSNBC in concert with three or four pollsters, deciding the candidates for that job? Sponsored by Pride of Homes and Luke Team Real Estate and Ryan Plumbing and Heating of Saint Paul