A series of podcasts dedicated to the so called toss up races for the Senate, Governors and House in 2018’s Midterm Election. Most notable in Part 3 are Minnesota’s toss ups. Find out why in Toss Up House Elections 2018-Part 3-Minnesota-Podcast 755.
These days podcasters can dive deep by doing a series of podcasts on one subject. One of my missions at the Bob Davis Podcasts is to provide the antidote to the prattling and predictions.
So I am diving deep!
What IS a Toss Up?
It’s especially relevant that I am reviewing the data and details about states and districts for this series. One of my takeaways is what political scientists and commentators view as a toss up is entirely up to their judgement.
One man’s toss up is another man’s lean republican, or lean democrat.
Story Lines Are Click Bait and Influence Voters
My issue is these predictions create their own story lines. These ‘predictions’ can influence voters negatively.
This Year’s Story Line
This year the story line is republicans will lose the House and Senate and some Governorships because of the antics of President Donald Trump. Is this true?
Learn more in Toss Up House Elections 2018-Part 3-Minnesota-Podcast 755.
Minnesota Center Stage
In 2018 Minnesotans elect a Governor, two Senators and eight Congressman. There are also contested statewide races like Attorney General and State Auditor. Moreover Senator Tina Smith is running in her first election after Governor Dayton appointed her to the Senate. We have a lot going on in our state.
Finally so called experts say there are four toss up races in Minnesota this year. Two democrat and two traditionally republican House districts.
Find out if I think it is true in Toss Up House Elections 2018-Part 3-Minnesota-Podcast 755.
No Predictions No Partisanship
In conclusion I don’t make predictions or try to make the data ‘lean’ on way or another. I don’t make judgements based on rumors in these districts. I give you the existing data on the district and let you make your own prediction.
Listen To This Series. Know What To Watch For On Election Night
Bottom line, if you listen to this series of podcasts on election night, you’ll know where to look and what races to watch to make an informed prediction about the election’s outcome and what it may or may not mean.
(Editor’s Note: Heads up if you’re using Ballotpedia to check presidential voting stats for individual house districts. One set of data in particular has caused problems for me. A drop down chart purporting to show house election results by HOUSE district is in fact by STATE HOUSE district, In the case of the second district this showed a huge advantage for Trump. It is only in state HOUSE districts, apparently and not overall. A similar chart from the Daily Koz, ON the Daily Koz shows actual house districts and a much closer result. Still a win for Trump in the 2nd in 2016. Despite this update, I still feel the toss up race in 2018 will be in Minnesota’s 3rd district. I did not use this data set for every house race. I don’t think it changes whether a district leans one way or another or is a toss up since I based my analysis on other factors.)
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Toss Up House Elections 2018-Part 3-Minnesota-Podcast 755
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