Toss Up House Elections 2018-Part 4-Podcast 756

As I do the last two podcasts in the toss up series at the Bob Davis Podcasts, more predictions of a democrat wave are most notable. Are these predictions true? We’ll find out in Toss Up House Elections 2018-Part 4-Podcast 756.

Shellacking

In addition to commentators AP reported this week that republican pollsters are telling top republicans they’re in for a shellacking in November.

As a mission of the Bob Davis Podcasts I have been looking at those elections deemed ‘toss ups’ by the experts.

Conventional Wisdom Is Right Until Wrong

Especially relevant is the idea behind the mission. No predictions. Non partisan. What is the situation in these key districts in the final weeks of the election. Readers, subscribers and listeners might be surprised to learn very few public polls exist. Conventional wisdom drives most of these predictions. I detail this for each toss up in Toss Up House Elections 2018-Part 4-Podcast 756.

Close Elections Don’t Always Mean Flips

From North Carolina to Texas in Toss Up House Elections 2018-Part 4-Podcast 756. Toss up races are simply close elections for whatever reason. Moreover most US House elections are in solid democrat or republican districts. This year some say there are more than 40 districts that will be close. Why they’re close is key.

Open Seats And Changing Geography

In some cases the district is an open seat because of retirements. In other cases, the contours of the district’s geography have changed. What was once a solid republican or democrat district is now supposedly more ‘balanced’.

Everyone Hates Congress…

Finally the real question in the 2018 midterms is whether people will vote their opinions of the president or local concerns. The old saying goes, everyone hates congress but not their congressman.

One Size Fits All Election?

In conclusion I spent a fair amount of time not only looking through the data for these districts but also watching some of the internet and TV ads for candidates. Sometimes it’s hard to tell the republican from the democrat. This is not a one size fits all election even though the media would have its viewers believe it is.

Once I finish this series in this podcast, and the next, I’ll do one more podcast with my analysis since there isn’t much time for that in these podcasts dealing with individual districts.

Sponsored by John D Scott Personal Injury Lawyer and the Water Butler Water Purification Systems

Toss Up House Elections 2018-Part 4-Podcast 756

 

Doug Jones Beats Roy Moore-Trump-Alabama-GOP Chaos-Podcast 685

Is the South suddenly turning blue? Democrats have handed the GOP a shocking defeat in the Alabama US Senate Race. Coverage in Doug Jones Beats Roy Moore-Trump-Alabama-GOP Chaos-Podcast 685.

A Stinging Defeat

What are the takeaways from this race? What about winners and losers? Where do the President and Republicans in the Senate go from here? Where does the President’s former chief strategist Steve Bannon go from here?

Comedy of Errors

This was a race that captured the whole country’s attention. First there was the botched appointment of Luther Strange to the Senate Seat held by Jeff Sessions by an embattled Governor. A controversial primary election followed. Especially relevant were salacious allegations of misconduct leveled against republican candidate Judge Roy Moore. We’ll talk about it in Doug Jones Beats Roy Moore-Trump-Alabama-GOP Chaos-Podcast 685.

Welcome To The Blue South?

This is the second state to elect a democrat in a state wide race this fall. With Virginia electing a democrat governor in November and now a Senator in Alabama in December republicans are suddenly concerned about a lot more than their majority in the US Senate. What about the 2018 races coming up?

The Tax Bill Suddenly Got More Expensive

Republicans have a thin majority in the Senate. With the democrats adding a seat and a few republicans soft on the President’s agenda, suddenly passing legislation like the Tax ‘Reform’ Bill, Confirmations and Treaty Votes will be a little more uphill. In 2018 you can be sure past histories of congressmen and senators and their relationships with women will be on the ballot. But there’s more.

Get That Old Religion

In Doug Jones Beats Roy Moore-Trump-Alabama-GOP Chaos-Podcast 685 we’ll talk about the failure of something called ‘Republican Populism‘ in Alabama. Truth is, many people have overlooked Roy Moore’s decidedly far right and ‘populist’ political ideas because of the allegations against him. While those allegations certainly had an effect, his politics couldn’t have helped.

Time For A Plan

Finally, do republicans have a plan for the future beyond, “We can’t let democrats win”. Is there a plan beyond barnstorming politicians who say whatever enters their mind and blame of the media? We’ll talk about it in Doug Jones Beats Roy Moore-Trump-Alabama-GOP Chaos-Podcast 685.

Trump Has To Take The Blame

The president, his former chief strategist and the republican party have suffered a stinging defeat. The idea was, go out and campaign for our guy because he is our guy and we can’t afford another ‘liberal’ democrat in the senate. Well, that is exactly what happened. President Trump has no one else to blame for this defeat, but himself.

(Editor’s Note: A late night meant I was a little fuzzy with my Senate numbers. With the GOP losing this seat they lose a vote in the Senate. Democrats gain one. So it’s GOP 51, DEM 49. Add two independents who caucus with democrats…and it’s 51 51. With a soft majority for the republicans – they don’t necessarily vote as a block – the future could be uphill for the President and Republicans.)

Sponsored by Ryan Plumbing and Heating of Saint Paul

Doug Jones Beats Roy Moore-Trump-Alabama-GOP Chaos-Podcast 685

 

 

 

 

 

 

Podcast 586-Midtown Global Market

 

Giving 2017 context

Live from the Midtown Global Exchange in Minneapolis. (Editor’s Note: Unfortunately throughout this live podcast I refer to the Midtown Global Market as ‘International Market Square‘, which is somewhere else in the Twin Cities.)

In 2006 the Midtown Global Market opened to much fanfare after 192 Million dollars was spent to redevelop the old Sears Building on Lake Street in Minneapolis. Tens of millions of dollars in grants, aid and bonding helped pay for the project which was sold as the key to redeveloping a decaying neighborhood.

Just inside the entrance are several large photos of the neighborhood back in the 1920’s before the Sears Building was constructed, with no subsidies, at a cost of five million dollars. Looking at those old pictures, knowing the neighborhood, I think of change, and context.

Like any New Year, we’re always optimistic about the future. We need 2017 context. How was your year? How do you compare it to other years? Did you have a good 2016? Will next year be better? Life doesn’t follow neatly defined month and year delineations. Life cycles operate on other timelines.

We make decisions individually and collectively. Those decisions provoke change and reaction. It takes awhile for results to appear. Just like this place. The marketplace has struggled since it opened in 2006 and continues to require subsidies to survive. The neighborhood has struggled despite redevelopment at enormous cost to the taxpayers. Is it better?

We live in a time of intense chronicling. Like a teenager’s journal every slight, every insult and every joy is recorded and exaggerated. A person looks back on their journals twenty or thirty years after and does not remember every detail. On the other hand, the Internet records every insult and slight and magnifies reaction. In this environment perspective and context, so important in human decision making, is distorted as well.

As I begin 2017 I find myself unhappy with what I see on social media, in broadcast and so called traditional media. Now a primary source of ‘news’, social media sets the tone for all other media. These sources are mostly devoid of perspective and context. In this podcast some 2017 Context.

We’re told celebrities are dying like flies and this is terrible. Is a celebrity more important than anyone else? How many people die every year famous or not? What is the context? How many babies are born every year? The famous do not retain their earthly status when they crossover. We all know this. So, why all the hand wringing about celebrity deaths?

In Podcast 586-Midtown Global Market, some thought starters for your 2017, live from the Midtown Global Market. Why is history so important? Where does change come from. How is our time different from other eras? Why do things we don’t want to change, often change? How do we manage change? What do we need to know to manage change?

So many people post and tweet these days because they want to be thought of as beautiful, a hero or a friend. Many go on social media so they can stand on top of a hill and be recognized for the contributions they feel they’ve made. Why? Aren’t we special just because we’re alive and in the world right now?

2016’s events effected many of us deeply. Government’s power is pernicious and often malicious; Starting a war. Pouring tens of millions of dollars into dubious development project. To the degree people people engage in gossip and back fence judgement via social media, they have less influence over those they have selected to ‘run things’. Here’s to providing context and perspective in 2017. Sponsored by Ryan Plumbing and Heating of Saint Paul.