Toss Up House Elections 2018-Part 4-Podcast 756

As I do the last two podcasts in the toss up series at the Bob Davis Podcasts, more predictions of a democrat wave are most notable. Are these predictions true? We’ll find out in Toss Up House Elections 2018-Part 4-Podcast 756.

Shellacking

In addition to commentators AP reported this week that republican pollsters are telling top republicans they’re in for a shellacking in November.

As a mission of the Bob Davis Podcasts I have been looking at those elections deemed ‘toss ups’ by the experts.

Conventional Wisdom Is Right Until Wrong

Especially relevant is the idea behind the mission. No predictions. Non partisan. What is the situation in these key districts in the final weeks of the election. Readers, subscribers and listeners might be surprised to learn very few public polls exist. Conventional wisdom drives most of these predictions. I detail this for each toss up in Toss Up House Elections 2018-Part 4-Podcast 756.

Close Elections Don’t Always Mean Flips

From North Carolina to Texas in Toss Up House Elections 2018-Part 4-Podcast 756. Toss up races are simply close elections for whatever reason. Moreover most US House elections are in solid democrat or republican districts. This year some say there are more than 40 districts that will be close. Why they’re close is key.

Open Seats And Changing Geography

In some cases the district is an open seat because of retirements. In other cases, the contours of the district’s geography have changed. What was once a solid republican or democrat district is now supposedly more ‘balanced’.

Everyone Hates Congress…

Finally the real question in the 2018 midterms is whether people will vote their opinions of the president or local concerns. The old saying goes, everyone hates congress but not their congressman.

One Size Fits All Election?

In conclusion I spent a fair amount of time not only looking through the data for these districts but also watching some of the internet and TV ads for candidates. Sometimes it’s hard to tell the republican from the democrat. This is not a one size fits all election even though the media would have its viewers believe it is.

Once I finish this series in this podcast, and the next, I’ll do one more podcast with my analysis since there isn’t much time for that in these podcasts dealing with individual districts.

Sponsored by John D Scott Personal Injury Lawyer and the Water Butler Water Purification Systems

Toss Up House Elections 2018-Part 4-Podcast 756

 

2018 Governors Toss Up Races-Polls-Bob Davis Podcast 752

Most people these days don’t dial into elections until after Labor Day. I’m doing a series of podcasts to get you updated on all the so called ‘toss up’ races. Learn more about the Governor’s races in 2018 Governors Toss Up Races-Polls-Bob Davis Podcast 752.

Old Saws Predict Races?

Moreover pundits and statisticians are hell bent for leather to tell you who’s going to win every race. Most noteworthy are the ‘old saws’ of politics. Predictions based on truisms and sayings.

You’re Right Until You’re Wrong

Maybe these old ways of predicting outcomes combined with new data are right. My experience is, they’re right until they’re wrong. I’ll explain in 2018 Governors Toss Up Races-Polls-Bob Davis Podcast 752.

Let The People Decide

Also I believe people should be able to make decisions about who they think is going to win, and who to vote for, without being told who’s going to win three months before election day. Wouldn’t you like to hear some information about this elections without someone telling you who’s going to win? That’s what I do in 2018 Governors Toss Up Races-Polls-Bob Davis Podcast 752.

Local Or National?

For example we’re told that national issues are driving all the races in the 2018 Midterm Elections. Is this true? Or is it possible local issues may be central? In some states taxes and budgets. In others, mining vs environment and business versus agriculture.

States Are Bigger Than You Think

One thing I’ve learned traveling back and forth across this country on two lane roads is the individual states of these United States are very diverse and a lot larger than they look on a map. How does this fact impact the race? Find out in 2018 Governors Toss Up Races-Polls-Bob Davis Podcast 752.

Too Close To Call? Check Again

Finally how many of these races are actually ‘toss ups’. How many contests between gubernatorial candidates really are too close to call? You might be surprised at the answer.

Red or Blue May Not Be

In conclusion the experts say the number of states under partisan party control is important. States are either ‘blue’ or ‘red’. Are all republicans and democrats created equal? Or is the truth somewhere in the middle?

Sponsored by Ryan Plumbing and Heating of Saint Paul

2018 Governors Toss Up Races-Polls-Bob Davis Podcast 752

Podcast 499 – The Bob Davis Podcasts Radio Show – 26

Podcast 499 – The Bob Davis Podcasts Radio Show – 26. Throughout this week the theme running through the podcasts has been the tribal nature of politics in the United States these days. There’s a great story in Gibbon’s ‘The History of the Decline and Fall of The Roman Empire’ about how Chariot Racing in Rome evolved from a convivial affair to a feral, bloody sport. It began with the idea that some Chariot teams would carry different colored flags to differentiate themselves. This progressed to ‘tribes’ supporting the various colors, and this eventually evolved to the point where there were pitched battles between the different groups supporting different chariot teams. Eventually the different groups began political pressure groups. These days, people seem to be supporting candidates, or joining cults of personalities. You’re for you’re guy no matter what. Depending on what tribe we belong to, we get our information from sources that confirm our worst fears. When we discuss politics with people in different tribes, discussions quickly devolve into arguments and fights. Not only are we not making progress, we’re making ‘regress’. Modern media and news sources online aren’t making the situation any better, since an individual’s newsfeed on FaceBook or YouTube or Twitter doesn’t expose that person to anything that isn’t part of their friends list, worldview or political orientation. Snark, insults, and shouts only add to alienation and separation of today’s political ‘chariot teams’. The radio show is posted here in digital quality sound. As I keep posting shows on here on the Bob Davis Podcasts I am learning each week’s radio is a good summary of the general trend of news and discussion for the week. Thanks for listening! Sponsored by Ryan Plumbing and Heating and X Government Cars.

Podcast 497

Midnight Deck Radio. It’s that time of year again. Just before the bugs, when the trees are full and the nights are cool. But, the coffee’s on and the Tiki Torches are lit, time for some Midnight Deck Radio. As we wait for the planet Mercury to transit between the Earth and the Sun in the 6:00 hour Central Daylight Savings Time on Monday, May 9th, it’s time to update Bob Davis Podcast Listeners for the week ahead. You wouldn’t know it if you listened to talk radio or to the 24 hour cable television channels, but there isn’t much to talk about in politics until the next spate of primary elections. Even then, there won’t be any real fireworks until just before both mainline party conventions late this summer. That doesn’t stop the media machine though, rehashing and churning away with more opinion and commentary on the same issues again and again, and again. How many times can we talk about whether or not Hillary Clinton will be indicted (um, no she won’t) or how Donald Trump is the ‘presumptive’ nominee of the Republican party? One of the things I’ve learned doing the weekly ‘Bob Davis Podcasts Radio Show’ is how prescient the Bob Davis Podcasts can be when it comes to forecasting political events and issues ahead of the curve. The podcasts have been talking for weeks about the potential for an establishment fight over the ‘presumptive’ Trump nomination. Just before the weekend all the stories broke about republican establishment types concerned about the down ticket, former presidents who say they won’t attend the convention, establishment donors and potential candidates refusing to endorse the ‘presumptive’ nominee. Which brings us to the media itself. A New York Times article last week about White House Media advisor and Deputy National Security Advisor Ben Rhodes has lots of people talking about how the White House ‘controls’ or thinks it controls the media. The main point of the story was Rhodes’ comments about how reporters sometimes copy and reprint whole press releases word for word, because no one actually does any real reporting work anymore when it comes to news. This is was an ongoing topic of conversation when The Bob Davis Podcasts was on the road in Mobile Podcast Command covering the primary election season in Iowa, South Carolina, Florida and Texas this spring. Yes there are a few actual reporters in Washington and New York who work sources and check out stories, but for the most part these days if you’re watching the 24 hour cable channels or listening to the radio you’re getting nothing more than a rehash of someone else’s writing and very often, it’s a press release written up as a new story without any fact checking or source confirmation. What missing is the kind of information people need to be able to discern what are facts and whether those facts are important or not. This is one of the reasons why American Politics isn’t a process for problems solving but a national representation of an increasingly tribal population. How do we build a future when all we’re really concerned about is what tribe each other belongs to and whether we can talk to each other? Digital media can help with that, or it can exacerbate the problem. How do podcasts make a difference? What’s the mission of this podcast these days? Sponsored by X Government Cars and Ryan Plumbing and Heating of Saint Paul.

Podcast 496 – The Bob Davis Podcasts Radio Show – 25

The Bob Davis Podcasts Radio Show – 25. This weekend’s radio show in crystal clear, digital audio. The radio show includes excerpts from podcasts through the week as well as original content for radio affiliates. In The Bob Davis Podcasts Radio Show – 25, the tumultuous developments in American Politics this week take center stage, so this show focuses on these developments. First, Donald Trump’s victory in Indiana has the media and elements of the republican party crowning the New York developer as the ‘presumptive nominee’. Certainly, without opposition in primaries from here on out, delegate count isn’t as much of a problem. Trump’s biggest obstacle to the nomination now is the fracturing of the Republican party. Mitt Romney says he can’t support Trump while decrying ‘populism’ in American Politics (whatever that means). It was reported this week that both former Presidents George H.W Bush, and George W. Bush will not attend the RNC in Cleveland. Paul Ryan says he hasn’t decided on whether to support Trump, Trump says he isn’t sure whether he supports Ryan’s ‘agenda’. Down Ticket senators in vulnerable seats are complaining about Trump, and not just ‘any’ senators; Former Republican Presidential Candidate and senior senator John McCain says a Trump nomination puts his seat in question. There, then, is the rub. With no clear indication yet on the plan for Cruz, Kasich and Rubio delegates, it might be suggested Trump’s new ‘presumptive nominee’ title might be, well, presumptive. In this podcast – The Bob Davis Podcasts Radio Show – 25 – state Cruz organizer Mandy Benz joins me to talk about her raw reactions to the Cruz campaign suspension announcement. After a New York Times article late this week that says news outlets often reprint press releases without editing, don’t ask questions, don’t do any real reporting and the story is controlled from places like The White House, it’s not surprising that talk show charlatans, pundits and personalities seem to be addicted to the attention that comes from endorsing candidates. Being disgusted with the whole process and not liking any of the candidates seems to be the best thing a podcaster do, to provide objective analysis. No one else is, apparently, so Namaste, Bitches. Sponsored by Brush Studio in the West End and Hydrus Performance.

Podcast 495

The Light At The End Of The Tunnel? The Light At The End Of The Tunnel? It’s probably a train, right? First Ted Cruz quits the race, then the next day John Kasich quits. So, it is now fair to say that Donald J. Trump has a clear path to be nominated as the Republican Presidential Candidate at the Republican convention this summer. Yes, suddenly the republican establishment which so hated ‘The Donald’ it allowed #nevertrump to continue and in some cases encouraged it, has suddenly embraced the hated Trump even switching over to #neverhillary. So much for the so called ‘principled conservative’ at the top of the GOP. Now what? There’s a lot of ground to cover between now and the last primaries in June, and the conventions. Since there have already been a number of surprises in 2016, it’s fair to say just about anything could happen at either the republican or democrat convention. In treating the media story-lines with healthy skepticism, one wonders what happens to the Red State Blogs and Glenn Beck’s of the world? What happens to all the #nevertrump and Cruz supporting talk show hosts? Do they suddenly start working for Hillary Clinton? What about the outside possibility Bernie Sanders wins California and democrat super delegates start abandoning the USS Hillary? If Trump is the nominee – and to be fair it looks like he is going to be unless something happens between now and Cleveland – can he win the presidency? Already we’re seeing the same kind of ‘predict the future’ journalism now, we saw at the beginning of the Trump candidacy. Trump can not win, he starts in the hole and will never beat Clinton or Sanders. He’s a bully. He’s a xenophobe. He’s an authoritarian. If you’re a woman you’ll vote for Hillary. There are protests against Trump in the streets which may end up helping his candidacy, actually. Can Trump win? Of course he can. He went against the odds and crushed a whole field of republicans, although media compliments aside, the republican field this year was a disaster and the debates exposed them all as completely unprepared for the spotlight, except for the one guy who knows how to play the TV Reality Show Game. So yeah, Trump can win. The only problem with a Trump presidency is, republicans will probably regret it. Conservatives for Trump? Don’t make me laugh. Trade protection, Keynesian economics and nativism are hardly ‘conservative’ ideas. There are going to be a lot of long faces for republicans when they learn what a Trump presidency might actually mean for them, unless you want to work at a bucket factory or coal mine, where millennials with graduate degrees want to work, right? On the other hand, why not? It’s gonna be great! For too long republicans have masqueraded as conservatives, railing against abortion and same-sex marriage while they voted to increase budgets year after year for things like ‘education’ and stadiums for billionaire sports owners. Who deserves Trump? Republicans deserve Trump. The Light At End Of The Tunnel? It’s a Trump. No wait! It’s a train. Sponsored by X Government Cars and Ryan Plumbing and Heating of Saint Paul.

 

Podcast 494

Surprises. In an early spring shocker, Senator Ted Cruz suspends his campaign after losing the Indiana Republican Presidential Preference Primary to New Yorker Donald Trump. On the democrat side, Bernie Sanders bested Hillary Clinton in the Hoosier State Democratic Primary. The story of the week, however, is the shocking suspension of the Ted Cruz campaign. Surprises. Cruz supporters were preparing for a contested republican convention. Though stories appeared late last week suggesting — off the record of course — Cruz campaign officials were ‘demoralized’ due to polls showing at least double digit leads in Indiana for Trump, the Senator’s introduction of Californian Carly Fiorina as his ‘running mate’ would suggest the campaign was still thinking about the Golden State and its hundred plus delegates as late as two weeks ago. Media story lines have now shifted to the ‘inevitability’ of a Trump nomination, or that Trump is the ‘presumptive’ nominee for the GOP. These kinds of over reactions to Trump’s Indiana win are to be expected in a self serving Media, but it’s still premature. Certainly one cannot predict the future. While it’s true that Trump’s path to the nomination is clearer in the remaining state primaries, with the absence of Cruz, the actual delegate count in Cleveland remains to be determined. It would be unwise for the Trump campaign or the media to count the republican establishment out. Down? Yes. But not out. Surprises. Then there is the question of what happened to Cruz? Are self identifying ‘conservatives’ finally settling on Trump, as opposed to Cruz? Was it a mistake for Cruz to encourage talk show hosts to campaign with him and were all the fasts, comparisons to George Washington and religious exhortations a turn off for some? And, what about the #nevertrump crowd? Looks like another talk-show-blogger-host effort that failed miserably. Finally, to get a real sense of the surprise inside the Cruz campaign after tonight’s bombshell, we talk to one of the campaign’s state coordinators, Mandy Benz. A tough night for someone who has worked very hard for her candidate and what she believed in, which deserves respect regardless of your political views. (Editor’s Note: Late breaking news, rumors that John Kasich is out, and the RNC is supporting Donald Trump as the presumptive nominee. This changes the picture regarding Trump’s delegate count in upcoming primaries.)Sponsored by Hydrus Performance and Brush Studio in the West End, Saint Louis Park, Minnesota.

Podcast 493 – The Bob Davis Podcasts Radio Show 24

The Bob Davis Podcasts Radio Show 24. I’ve been doing a syndicated radio show for about 6 months. It is distributed through GCNLIVE.com. The Bob Davis Podcasts Radio Show 24 airs in Minneapolis on AM1280 The Patriot at 4PM on Saturdays. As we get new affiliates I will announce them.  People often ask me, “How do I hear the radio show”, so I thought I would post it as a podcast so you can hear what it sounds like. Another reason for posting it here as, syndicated radio shows are audio processed before they air on satellite, so they can be aired from the satellite by radio stations. As a result of all the audio processing the final product on the radio sometimes is not as good technically as the original. The great thing about podcasts – especially the Bob Davis Podcasts – is our attention to detail and specifically detail when it comes to audio processing and quality. I am posting the show here because I want people to be able to listen to it as it actually sounds, before all the processing for the satellite, and on the radio. It’ll give you a little idea of why I am such an evangelist for audio delivered on demand over the Internet. For listeners of the Bob Davis Podcasts, the weekly show condenses some of the content from the podcasts into a weekly radio show format. There is additional content not heard in the podcasts, especially the first segment and comments leading into each of the segments. This week I devoted a little time to the recent announcement by Senator Ted Cruz of Carly Fiorina’s new status as his ‘running mate’. Is this a good move? In this show we cover issues related to the ‘Just Getting By Economy’, a condensed version of my summary of the presidential preference primaries coming up, and some of the discussion this week on all the TV Binge viewing we all seem to do, which received a lot of great reaction. Thanks to everyone for listening to The Bob Davis Podcasts, thanks for checking out The Bob Davis Podcasts Radio Show 24, and let me know if you think I should post the show every week. Sponsored by Ryan Plumbing and Heating of Saint Paul, and X Government Cars.

Podcast 489

New York Primary Results. The results of the New York Presidential Primary are in. Now sit back and watch the story lines change. Surprise! After a day of voter confusion and typical New York statements from election officials about investigations, the New York Primary Results are in. Donald Trump won roughly 60 percent of the Republican votes, and Hillary Clinton managed about 57 percent of the Democratic votes in a slightly closer race. The most interesting outcome of this presidential preference poll is which republican candidate came in second. While Trump celebrates a win large enough for him to control a lion’s share of the delegates from the Empire State, Ohio Governor John Kasich ran a good second, and Texas Senator Ted Cruz came in a distant third, which should be enough to change the media story lines from ‘Ted Cruz is posing a strong challenge to Trump’, to whether or not John Kasich could be the nominee for the republicans in a contested republican convention this summer. The next primaries favor Trump and especially Kasich. Connecticut, Delaware, Maryland, Pennsylvania and Rhode Island will hold primaries on April 26th. While most analysts expect Trump to win most of the delegates, many will be keeping a close eye on Kasich. Is the republican establishment working for Trump opponents in states that favor them? Recent polls from Wisconsin suggest that might be true. More establishment figures as well as candidates seem to be pointing toward a contested convention. With the establishment concerned about the so called ‘down-ticket’; the US Senate and House, chances are Trump and Cruz — who don’t poll well against Hillary Clinton or Bernie Sanders in a head to head match ups — may not be able to get the nomination if they can’t get the required 1237 majority of delegates on the first ballot. This is the main thing to pay attention to in the next few weeks. Ignore the pundits and the exit poll nonsense and focus on the next spate of primaries. Finally, the New York Times reports voters ‘disillusioned’ by primary races that depend on delegate elections, not the popular vote. Are they being sidelined or were voters always sidelined in these state primaries and caucuses? Sponsored by Brush Studio and X Government Cars.

Podcast 487

Confessions of a Delegate. As commentators, political junkies, your next door neighbor and just about everyone speculates about the number of delegates garnered by candidates in the 2016 primary race, I thought it was time to actually talk to one of the delegates to a past convention to get an idea of what it’s like. Thus, Confessions of a Delegate. Mark Johnson was a republican activist supporting Texas Congressman Ron Paul for president in 2012. Johnson was part of the storied Minnesota Delegation, one of five state delegations pledged to support Paul. We’ve all seen the shots on TV from the convention floor. What was it really like to be on the floor at the convention? What was it like to experience the power of the establishment first hand, a republican establishment bound and determined not to allow the Texas Representative a chance to speak to the convention or have his name entered into nomination from the floor. What did the establishment do? They changed the rules before the convention (the now famous rule 40b) and prevented a so called ‘minority report’ on the rules committee from being entered into consideration and voted on, making sure Minority Report author Morton Blackwell’s bus didn’t make it to the convention in time for the vote. The establishment also disqualified the Maine delegation and replaced them with Romney supporters. Why is this important. This fight is nothing compared to what could happen if none of the candidates reach Cleveland with enough delegates pledged to them to achieve a nomination on the first ballot, an outcome which appears more and more likely, an outcome all three remaining candidacies appear to be preparing for. Now ‘retired for the time being’ Johnson talks about his experience and has some advice for the delegates elected to their conventions in 2016. Sponsored by X Government Cars and Pride of Homes and Luke Team Real Estate. (Editor’s note; At one point I refer to what happens when delegates get to ‘Tampa’, since we were talking about Tampa and 2012. I meant to say Cleveland, where the GOP convention will be held in 2016.)