Dumbest-Question-In-Politics-Bob Davis Podcast 944

Impossible To Predict The Future

Most importantly it is impossible to predict the future. However the media insists on trying. Learn more in Dumbest-Question-In-Politics-Bob Davis Podcast 944.

Dumbest Question

Certainly the dumbest question in politics provokes the need for me to do a presidential polling roundup every now and then before election day 2020.

Direct Elections

Firstly on that day voters will be directly voting for congressmen, senators and a range of local officials.

Electoral College Chooses Our President

Secondly voters will cast a vote for the president but they won’t be directly voting for the president. That’s the job of the electoral college.

Who Chooses The President?

We hold individual state and territorial elections. Electors chosen in each state actually choose the president. Therefore we have a geographic component to our elections. That’s key.

Battleground!

Due to this unique feature of our presidential elections it comes down to so called ‘battleground’ or ‘swing’ states.

Answering The Dumbest Question In Politics Is Nearly Impossible

Therefore answering the dumbest question in politics is almost impossible. Details in Dumbest-Question-In-Politics-Bob Davis Podcast 944.

What Matters In Election Coverage

In short that is why I do these podcasts detailing the most recent polls from each election’s ‘battleground’ states. Because at the end of the day, these are the states that matter.

Up For Grabs

Even more this month’s round up again shows the 2020 election is up for grabs, not already decided.

Wild Predictions Waste Your Time

Above all the media’s penchant for answering the dumbest question in politics produces wild predictions about the outcomes. Basically if you want your guy to win, you’d better go to work because it’s far from decided.

Current Polls

In conclusion if you want a discussion of what the current polls show without allegiance to a candidate or cause, I am your guy.

Pluralities

That is to say things are still close in key states. To clarify, victories will probably be by pluralities rather than majorities.

No Matter What They Say…It’s Still Impossible To Predict

Finally that makes the election of 2020, if it is held at at all, impossible to predict.

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Dumbest-Question-In-Politics-Bob Davis Podcast 944

Landslide-Mania-Updating-Polls-Bob Davis Podcast 936

Mania For Biden Landslide

Above all as you know political polls don’t have a set schedule for release. With all the mania for a Biden Landslide lately plus the release of new polls it is time again to update my most recent podcast on polls in battleground states. We do it in Landslide-Mania-Updating-Polls-Bob Davis Podcast 936.

Updates When Conditions Change

Firstly when you do a podcast based on current events you have to be prepared for updates when conditions change.

New Polls

Second a new spate of new polls of key states was released recently and they’re not good for the president.

Biden Leading In Some Battlegrounds

I think most importantly for the President, Joe Biden is taking the lead.

Parsing Key Polls

Therefore I will go through the key polls in the key states.

Arizona, Texas, North Carolina and Florida

Especially relevant is how the ground might be changing in Arizona, North Carolina, Texas and especially Florida.

Never Predict Outcomes

Certainly my approach is not to attach myself to outcomes or process. In the same vein it really bothers me to see commentators predicting certain outcomes.

Four Months Is A Long Time

In addition these polls show movement over time. Further we don’t know what might happen to benefit either candidate in the next four months. Think of how many things changed since the pandemic began just a short while ago.

Trump Running Uphill

But it is fair to say these polls strongly suggest President Trump is facing uphill battles in key electoral states.

Stringing Together Lights In The Dark

Finally I don’t like doing two of these kinds of podcasts in a row. However it is necessary to drive home the point the political landscape as measured by modern polling is a moving target. That is the whole point of Podcast 935, and Landslide-Mania-Updating-Polls-Bob Davis Podcast 936.

Landslide or Nail Biter. Take Your Pick

In conclusion I think predictions of a landslide for Biden are irresponsible.

Potentially False Hope For Democrats and Pollsters

Not only do they give potentially false hope for democrats. Likewise they create the impression the polls are infallible predictors.

We all know how that ended in 2016.

And of course if the ground shifts, I’ll call it as I see it.

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Landslide-Mania-Updating-Polls-Bob Davis Podcast 936

 

 

 

Art-Of-Politics-Polling-Prediction-Bob Davis Podcast 935

Updating Current Political Polls

Firstly Art-Of-Politics-Polling-Prediction-Bob Davis Podcast 935 is part of a series of podcasts updating current polls for 2020.

No Blanket Statements

Secondly I tend to avoid blanket statements when it comes to political polls.

Politics is An Art

Finally I believe despite all the technology we have politics is still an art.

No Silver Bullet For Predictions

Even more there is no application or spreadsheet that can ‘predict’ an outcome based on polls.

Probabilities

In short we can only look at probabilities.

Snapshots

Polls are snapshots in real time.

Shocking Confusion When It Comes To Polls

Meanwhile pundits and commentators continue to display a shocking confusion when it comes to understanding political polling.

Out and Out Bias

Most importantly some are ‘in the tank’ for one or the other candidate.

National Polls A Disservice To Supporters of Both Candidates

Consequently all of this political chatter and predictions does a disservice to supporters of all candidates.

Your Own Reality Check

On the other hand what if I can show you how to do your own reality check on your smart phone whenever you hear some wild prediction of a ‘landslide’ for either candidate.

That’s what Art-Of-Politics-Polling-Prediction-Bob Davis Podcast 935 is all about.

Still All About Showing Up

In conclusion if we have learned anything over the years, it is politics still belongs to those who show up.

State By State Battleground

Working hard down to the election is always the best approach. National polls are useless as the popular vote does not determine the presidency in the US.

Stay With The Bob Davis Podcasts

To sum up stay with me for a clear eyed view of the state by state polling results so that you’re not shocked and surprised on election night. Anything is possible, but right now it’s still a close race.

(Editor’s Note: As I recorded this podcast new polls were being released and results uploaded. As of the date of this post, the new polls have not changed my conclusion that 2020 will be close based on tight races in battleground states. I’ll do another podcast after the next spate of polls and we’ll see how things change. The good news is, if you listen to this podcast you’ll know how to update yourself when new polls come out.)

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Art-Of-Politics-Polling-Prediction-Bob Davis Podcast 935