Jumping-The-Gun-On-2020-Bob Davis Podcast 958

Jumping The Gun Again?

First of all they’re jumping the gun again. Learn more in Jumping-The-Gun-On-2020-Bob Davis Podcast 958.

Secondly I don’t care who wins the presidential election in 2020.

Leaps Of Faith

However I can’t ignore the leaps of faith when it comes to candidate preference polls in this election.

There Are Limits

In other words there are limits to the conclusions to be drawn from political polling.

Bob Davis Podcast Coverage Of Election 2020

Certainly this has been the subject of more than one political podcast this year.

Battleground State Review Series

Consequently it’s time for another review of the polls in the battleground states.

Even more paying special attention to balancing breathless predictions about ‘who’s going to win’.

Too Many Factors For Predictions

Most importantly there are too many factors to consider a prediction about the outcome of the vote in these battleground states.

But That Doesn’t Stop The Media

In addition it sure looks to me like media is jumping the gun. Again.

And in a world where everything one candidate does is right a proper and everything the other does is wrong and misguided, I am not surprised.

Non Partisan. No Attacks. No Defense.

Finally I don’t seek to defend or attack either mainline party candidate.

Blind Spot

Instead I point out a significant blind spot with almost all media in the United States in this election year.

Don’t Know What Will Happen November 3rd

In conclusion we don’t know what the outcome of this election will be. I think it is very difficult to predict given the many moving parts this year.

New Ballot Wrinkles

For example, absentee ballots, early voting and so on.

Balanced Coverage

To sum up I have been producing balanced coverage of these polls. That includes explanations how on they work and their limitations.

Listen to Jumping-The-Gun-On-2020-Bob Davis Podcast 958 for some poll analysis without predictions.

Sponsored by Kim Nybo State Farm Insurance and LaCroix Law Real Estate Attorneys

Jumping-The-Gun-On-2020-Bob Davis Podcast 958

 

 

 

Dumbest-Question-In-Politics-Bob Davis Podcast 944

Impossible To Predict The Future

Most importantly it is impossible to predict the future. However the media insists on trying. Learn more in Dumbest-Question-In-Politics-Bob Davis Podcast 944.

Dumbest Question

Certainly the dumbest question in politics provokes the need for me to do a presidential polling roundup every now and then before election day 2020.

Direct Elections

Firstly on that day voters will be directly voting for congressmen, senators and a range of local officials.

Electoral College Chooses Our President

Secondly voters will cast a vote for the president but they won’t be directly voting for the president. That’s the job of the electoral college.

Who Chooses The President?

We hold individual state and territorial elections. Electors chosen in each state actually choose the president. Therefore we have a geographic component to our elections. That’s key.

Battleground!

Due to this unique feature of our presidential elections it comes down to so called ‘battleground’ or ‘swing’ states.

Answering The Dumbest Question In Politics Is Nearly Impossible

Therefore answering the dumbest question in politics is almost impossible. Details in Dumbest-Question-In-Politics-Bob Davis Podcast 944.

What Matters In Election Coverage

In short that is why I do these podcasts detailing the most recent polls from each election’s ‘battleground’ states. Because at the end of the day, these are the states that matter.

Up For Grabs

Even more this month’s round up again shows the 2020 election is up for grabs, not already decided.

Wild Predictions Waste Your Time

Above all the media’s penchant for answering the dumbest question in politics produces wild predictions about the outcomes. Basically if you want your guy to win, you’d better go to work because it’s far from decided.

Current Polls

In conclusion if you want a discussion of what the current polls show without allegiance to a candidate or cause, I am your guy.

Pluralities

That is to say things are still close in key states. To clarify, victories will probably be by pluralities rather than majorities.

No Matter What They Say…It’s Still Impossible To Predict

Finally that makes the election of 2020, if it is held at at all, impossible to predict.

Sponsored by Tim LaCroix Real Estate Law

Dumbest-Question-In-Politics-Bob Davis Podcast 944

Podcast 237

Election 2014. Rundown of the top issues currently in election 2014, ending with analysis of polls in key Senate races. We’ll start with focus groups. Researchers use focus groups to sharpen their understanding of survey research, to help refine questions to be asked in surveys, and to gain insights on consumer behavior, perceptions and the differences between. The new ‘Soccer Mom’ is a thing called ‘The Walmart mom’; adult women in a certain income range, with children who shop at Walmart. If these women are the new ‘swing’ voter, America is profoundly under informed. For those trying to predict an outcome that is ‘red’ or ‘blue’ in the upcoming elections; the only thing you can be sure of is voters are restive. They’re worried about Ebola, their jobs, their kids, their living standard, ISIS and terrorists. They’re concerned about Obama’s performance as a leader, they really hate congress, and don’t trust the government as a whole. Overall, on both sides of the imaginary political fence, incumbents might actually suffer the worst fate on election night. That could be a harbinger of pick ups for both Republicans, and Democrats. President Obama didn’t help himself on Al Sharpton’s radio show the other day. Now the idea there is some back room deal which allows democrats to distance themselves from the President while he works secretly to get them re elected, because they support ‘his’ policies, through and through, is spreading through media like ebola in West Africa. Between the President’s loud mouth and the First Lady’s confusion about Bruce Braley (not bailey), and what office he is running for in Iowa (Senate not Governor), it’s democrats angry at the White House ‘Jay-Vee’ team, not just Republicans. Meanwhile, the New York Times is doing everything it can to help democrats in battleground states. The latest is an effort to portray Iowa as a burgeoning urbanized state. (Editor’s note: I have driven through Iowa many times in the last few years and I assure you, there are a great many corn and soy bean fields remaining). Add to the din, James Okeefe’s latest video which shows democrat operatives in Colorado cheering an actor who explains how to commit massive voter fraud using absentee ballots, and Teacher’s Unions spending millions in the last few days before November 4th (Election Day), and its starting to get interesting. Then comes the so called battleground states, where republicans, democrats and independents are running neck and neck, confounding the punditry’s attempts to make claims about pick ups and losses. Suddenly Republican strongholds are in play, and visa versa. Listen to this podcast and you will know the latest on polls in all of them, and what the data means. Remember though, late breaking voters tend to be terribly misinformed, and as predicated by Bob Davis weeks ago, in the end this all comes down to which teams are going to be more successful getting the vote out. The GOP hopes for the usual higher turn out in off years, but the DNC knows it has to turn out the Obama coalition (Minorities, women and young adults) just one more time, like they did in 2008 and 2012, and they are well equipped to do just that. Now it’s all up to you … the voter. Or not. Sponsored by Ryan Plumbing and Heating of Saint Paul