Jumping-The-Gun-On-2020-Bob Davis Podcast 958

Jumping The Gun Again?

First of all they’re jumping the gun again. Learn more in Jumping-The-Gun-On-2020-Bob Davis Podcast 958.

Secondly I don’t care who wins the presidential election in 2020.

Leaps Of Faith

However I can’t ignore the leaps of faith when it comes to candidate preference polls in this election.

There Are Limits

In other words there are limits to the conclusions to be drawn from political polling.

Bob Davis Podcast Coverage Of Election 2020

Certainly this has been the subject of more than one political podcast this year.

Battleground State Review Series

Consequently it’s time for another review of the polls in the battleground states.

Even more paying special attention to balancing breathless predictions about ‘who’s going to win’.

Too Many Factors For Predictions

Most importantly there are too many factors to consider a prediction about the outcome of the vote in these battleground states.

But That Doesn’t Stop The Media

In addition it sure looks to me like media is jumping the gun. Again.

And in a world where everything one candidate does is right a proper and everything the other does is wrong and misguided, I am not surprised.

Non Partisan. No Attacks. No Defense.

Finally I don’t seek to defend or attack either mainline party candidate.

Blind Spot

Instead I point out a significant blind spot with almost all media in the United States in this election year.

Don’t Know What Will Happen November 3rd

In conclusion we don’t know what the outcome of this election will be. I think it is very difficult to predict given the many moving parts this year.

New Ballot Wrinkles

For example, absentee ballots, early voting and so on.

Balanced Coverage

To sum up I have been producing balanced coverage of these polls. That includes explanations how on they work and their limitations.

Listen to Jumping-The-Gun-On-2020-Bob Davis Podcast 958 for some poll analysis without predictions.

Sponsored by Kim Nybo State Farm Insurance and LaCroix Law Real Estate Attorneys

Jumping-The-Gun-On-2020-Bob Davis Podcast 958

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No-News-Is-News-Bob Davis Podcast 953

No News IS News

These days the first thing to know is no news, IS the news. We’ll talk about it in No-News-Is-News-Bob Davis Podcast 953.

Objective Sources?

Most important for this walk and talk podcast is that some people think there are still ‘objective sources’.

Podcast Integration

First of I do walk and talk podcasts for a reason. These freewheeling podcasts are my way of integrating the ‘heavier’ podcasts I’ve done recently.

Therapy

Walking and Talking is therapy for me.

Weirdest Election Ever

Secondly we’re less than 60 days away from what is sure to be one of the weirdest US elections in memory.

Poorly Served

As a result of walking and talking I hit upon the idea we’re still being poorly served by all kinds of media in this country.

Lies are Truth…Truth Is A Lie

Even more is the question of where people turn when the intent of every source is to convince, manipulate or spread lies as ‘truth’.

Pundits Addicted To Predicting

Above all my focus lately has been reporting on political polls. In No-News-Is-News-Bob Davis Podcast 953 I take a few shots at the so called pundits and their predictions.

Rediscovering The Battleground States

Certainly the media has recently rediscovered the so called ‘battleground states’. In recent elections, mostly located in the central US.

Bob Davis Podcasts Has Been In The Battlegrounds All Along

We’ve been discussing the battleground state polls exclusively since 2019. In addition, most of the media aren’t reporting those polls properly currently.

National Polls and Manipulation

Above all this is the place to get analysis on key state polls without the partisanship. In addition I don’t make predictions and I don’t care who ‘wins’ this election.

Realignment

Finally as I think we’re in the midst of a political and social realignment. No one can tell you where that’s going to end up.

Something IS Wrong

For instance the feeling we all have something is wrong but we just can’t put our finger on what it is.

Walking Through A Late Summer Night

To sum up it’s always better to walk through a still late summer night and talk these things out.

That’s what a walk and talk is all about.

(Editor’s Note: I hate it when I have to do corrections, but this was a big mistake, so…Mentioned a Real Clear Politics metric which compares 2016 averages to 2020 averages between Hillary Clinton’s poll numbers then to Joe Biden’s now. I reversed those numbers. Biden is running about one point ahead of Clinton in the top battleground states and substantially better than the former Secretary of State in other metrics. However this doesn’t change how close the polls are overall in the battleground states. But given that I reversed the numbers, the analysis that Biden is running behind Clinton doesn’t work. All the more reason not to do analysis of the polls on the run in a walk and talk podcast.)

No-News-Is-News-Bob Davis Podcast 953

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Art-Of-Politics-Polling-Prediction-Bob Davis Podcast 935

Updating Current Political Polls

Firstly Art-Of-Politics-Polling-Prediction-Bob Davis Podcast 935 is part of a series of podcasts updating current polls for 2020.

No Blanket Statements

Secondly I tend to avoid blanket statements when it comes to political polls.

Politics is An Art

Finally I believe despite all the technology we have politics is still an art.

No Silver Bullet For Predictions

Even more there is no application or spreadsheet that can ‘predict’ an outcome based on polls.

Probabilities

In short we can only look at probabilities.

Snapshots

Polls are snapshots in real time.

Shocking Confusion When It Comes To Polls

Meanwhile pundits and commentators continue to display a shocking confusion when it comes to understanding political polling.

Out and Out Bias

Most importantly some are ‘in the tank’ for one or the other candidate.

National Polls A Disservice To Supporters of Both Candidates

Consequently all of this political chatter and predictions does a disservice to supporters of all candidates.

Your Own Reality Check

On the other hand what if I can show you how to do your own reality check on your smart phone whenever you hear some wild prediction of a ‘landslide’ for either candidate.

That’s what Art-Of-Politics-Polling-Prediction-Bob Davis Podcast 935 is all about.

Still All About Showing Up

In conclusion if we have learned anything over the years, it is politics still belongs to those who show up.

State By State Battleground

Working hard down to the election is always the best approach. National polls are useless as the popular vote does not determine the presidency in the US.

Stay With The Bob Davis Podcasts

To sum up stay with me for a clear eyed view of the state by state polling results so that you’re not shocked and surprised on election night. Anything is possible, but right now it’s still a close race.

(Editor’s Note: As I recorded this podcast new polls were being released and results uploaded. As of the date of this post, the new polls have not changed my conclusion that 2020 will be close based on tight races in battleground states. I’ll do another podcast after the next spate of polls and we’ll see how things change. The good news is, if you listen to this podcast you’ll know how to update yourself when new polls come out.)

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Art-Of-Politics-Polling-Prediction-Bob Davis Podcast 935

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