No-News-Is-News-Bob Davis Podcast 953

No News IS News

These days the first thing to know is no news, IS the news. We’ll talk about it in No-News-Is-News-Bob Davis Podcast 953.

Objective Sources?

Most important for this walk and talk podcast is that some people think there are still ‘objective sources’.

Podcast Integration

First of I do walk and talk podcasts for a reason. These freewheeling podcasts are my way of integrating the ‘heavier’ podcasts I’ve done recently.

Therapy

Walking and Talking is therapy for me.

Weirdest Election Ever

Secondly we’re less than 60 days away from what is sure to be one of the weirdest US elections in memory.

Poorly Served

As a result of walking and talking I hit upon the idea we’re still being poorly served by all kinds of media in this country.

Lies are Truth…Truth Is A Lie

Even more is the question of where people turn when the intent of every source is to convince, manipulate or spread lies as ‘truth’.

Pundits Addicted To Predicting

Above all my focus lately has been reporting on political polls. In No-News-Is-News-Bob Davis Podcast 953 I take a few shots at the so called pundits and their predictions.

Rediscovering The Battleground States

Certainly the media has recently rediscovered the so called ‘battleground states’. In recent elections, mostly located in the central US.

Bob Davis Podcasts Has Been In The Battlegrounds All Along

We’ve been discussing the battleground state polls exclusively since 2019. In addition, most of the media aren’t reporting those polls properly currently.

National Polls and Manipulation

Above all this is the place to get analysis on key state polls without the partisanship. In addition I don’t make predictions and I don’t care who ‘wins’ this election.

Realignment

Finally as I think we’re in the midst of a political and social realignment. No one can tell you where that’s going to end up.

Something IS Wrong

For instance the feeling we all have something is wrong but we just can’t put our finger on what it is.

Walking Through A Late Summer Night

To sum up it’s always better to walk through a still late summer night and talk these things out.

That’s what a walk and talk is all about.

(Editor’s Note: I hate it when I have to do corrections, but this was a big mistake, so…Mentioned a Real Clear Politics metric which compares 2016 averages to 2020 averages between Hillary Clinton’s poll numbers then to Joe Biden’s now. I reversed those numbers. Biden is running about one point ahead of Clinton in the top battleground states and substantially better than the former Secretary of State in other metrics. However this doesn’t change how close the polls are overall in the battleground states. But given that I reversed the numbers, the analysis that Biden is running behind Clinton doesn’t work. All the more reason not to do analysis of the polls on the run in a walk and talk podcast.)

No-News-Is-News-Bob Davis Podcast 953

Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 37:23 — 85.6MB) | Embed

Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | RSS

Art-Of-Politics-Polling-Prediction-Bob Davis Podcast 935

Updating Current Political Polls

Firstly Art-Of-Politics-Polling-Prediction-Bob Davis Podcast 935 is part of a series of podcasts updating current polls for 2020.

No Blanket Statements

Secondly I tend to avoid blanket statements when it comes to political polls.

Politics is An Art

Finally I believe despite all the technology we have politics is still an art.

No Silver Bullet For Predictions

Even more there is no application or spreadsheet that can ‘predict’ an outcome based on polls.

Probabilities

In short we can only look at probabilities.

Snapshots

Polls are snapshots in real time.

Shocking Confusion When It Comes To Polls

Meanwhile pundits and commentators continue to display a shocking confusion when it comes to understanding political polling.

Out and Out Bias

Most importantly some are ‘in the tank’ for one or the other candidate.

National Polls A Disservice To Supporters of Both Candidates

Consequently all of this political chatter and predictions does a disservice to supporters of all candidates.

Your Own Reality Check

On the other hand what if I can show you how to do your own reality check on your smart phone whenever you hear some wild prediction of a ‘landslide’ for either candidate.

That’s what Art-Of-Politics-Polling-Prediction-Bob Davis Podcast 935 is all about.

Still All About Showing Up

In conclusion if we have learned anything over the years, it is politics still belongs to those who show up.

State By State Battleground

Working hard down to the election is always the best approach. National polls are useless as the popular vote does not determine the presidency in the US.

Stay With The Bob Davis Podcasts

To sum up stay with me for a clear eyed view of the state by state polling results so that you’re not shocked and surprised on election night. Anything is possible, but right now it’s still a close race.

(Editor’s Note: As I recorded this podcast new polls were being released and results uploaded. As of the date of this post, the new polls have not changed my conclusion that 2020 will be close based on tight races in battleground states. I’ll do another podcast after the next spate of polls and we’ll see how things change. The good news is, if you listen to this podcast you’ll know how to update yourself when new polls come out.)

Sponsored by Virtus Law Strategic Business Specialists

Art-Of-Politics-Polling-Prediction-Bob Davis Podcast 935

Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 42:45 — 97.9MB) | Embed

Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | RSS

Trumpers-Think-Political-Polls-Lie-Bob Davis Podcast 862

Republicans Hate Polls…Unless They Show Trump In The Lead

There’s so much bias these days on every media platform there’s no trust. A conversation with a republican friend lead to this podcast about whether polls lie. Find out more by listening to Trumpers-Think-Political-Polls-Lie-Bob Davis Podcast 862.

Who Did The Poll?

First of all when it comes to polling, the first question a republican will ask is, “Who did the poll”. Especially if it reflects poorly on the president. In addition their second favorite response is, “No One Called Me”. Gah!

What Poll Will You Accept?

In contrast I wonder, “What poll would you accept?“.

Polling Explained. Again.

It’s time again to explain polling and the potential for a republican win or loss in 2020.

No bias or predictions. Just the lay of the land.

Accept and Consider Information Challenging Your Position

Above all political true believers reject any poll that doesn’t show their guy winning. Even more, political analysis requires accepting and considering information that challenges you.

Approval Ratings 101

In Trumpers-Think-Political-Polls-Lie-Bob Davis Podcast 862 front and center are approval ratings and their ability to predict winners.

Past Elections

Moreover I’ll look at how you can use polls to make solid judgements. I’ll also talk about the history of past elections as a tool.

Polls Don’t Lie … The Media Lies

Not only do I reject the assertion the polls “lie”. When averaged they can be quite predictive.

Unfortunately the wholesale ignorance of polling in our media is especially relevant. For Example, while the polls in 2016 showed a close race for president, they never predicted a Clinton win.

Trump Struggles In The Battleground States

Finally at issue are tracking polls showing the president’s approval rating in battleground states plummeting. With manufacturing reportedly in recession in Wisconsin and Michigan, republican bosses are concerned. They should be. Trump has to win the battleground states to win a second term.

A Republican Siding With The UAW?

Perhaps it is for that reason that the president is rumored to want to intervene in a current GM strike, in favor of the UAW.

History And No Judgements

Therefore this podcast is valuable because it looks at chances for both a landslide as well as a tough race, without judgements and predictions. There’s a lot of information here about past presidential races, the history of polling and approval ratings. It might come in handy.

Sponsored by Reliafund Payment Processors and The Strategic Business Planners at Virtus Law

Trumpers-Think-Political-Polls-Lie-Bob Davis Podcast 862

Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 33:53 — 77.6MB) | Embed

Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | RSS