Trumpers-Think-Political-Polls-Lie-Bob Davis Podcast 862

Trumpers-Think-Political-Polls-Lie-Bob Davis Podcast 862

Republicans Hate Polls…Unless They Show Trump In The Lead

There’s so much bias these days on every media platform there’s no trust. A conversation with a republican friend lead to this podcast about whether polls lie. Find out more by listening to Trumpers-Think-Political-Polls-Lie-Bob Davis Podcast 862.

Who Did The Poll?

First of all when it comes to polling, the first question a republican will ask is, “Who did the poll”. Especially if it reflects poorly on the president. In addition their second favorite response is, “No One Called Me”. Gah!

What Poll Will You Accept?

In contrast I wonder, “What poll would you accept?“.

Polling Explained. Again.

It’s time again to explain polling and the potential for a republican win or loss in 2020.

No bias or predictions. Just the lay of the land.

Accept and Consider Information Challenging Your Position

Above all political true believers reject any poll that doesn’t show their guy winning. Even more, political analysis requires accepting and considering information that challenges you.

Approval Ratings 101

In Trumpers-Think-Political-Polls-Lie-Bob Davis Podcast 862 front and center are approval ratings and their ability to predict winners.

Past Elections

Moreover I’ll look at how you can use polls to make solid judgements. I’ll also talk about the history of past elections as a tool.

Polls Don’t Lie … The Media Lies

Not only do I reject the assertion the polls “lie”. When averaged they can be quite predictive.

Unfortunately the wholesale ignorance of polling in our media is especially relevant. For Example, while the polls in 2016 showed a close race for president, they never predicted a Clinton win.

Trump Struggles In The Battleground States

Finally at issue are tracking polls showing the president’s approval rating in battleground states plummeting. With manufacturing reportedly in recession in Wisconsin and Michigan, republican bosses are concerned. They should be. Trump has to win the battleground states to win a second term.

A Republican Siding With The UAW?

Perhaps it is for that reason that the president is rumored to want to intervene in a current GM strike, in favor of the UAW.

History And No Judgements

Therefore this podcast is valuable because it looks at chances for both a landslide as well as a tough race, without judgements and predictions. There’s a lot of information here about past presidential races, the history of polling and approval ratings. It might come in handy.

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Trumpers-Think-Political-Polls-Lie-Bob Davis Podcast 862

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War-Rumors-Iran-Trump-Bob Davis Podcast 832

War-Rumors-Iran-Trump-Bob Davis Podcast 832

Presidential Election Ahead…Cue The War Drums

War and rumors of war. This time between the United States and Iran. These days you don’t know what’s real. We’ll talk about it in War-Rumors-Iran-Trump-Bob Davis Podcast 832.

The Devil’s In The Details

In addition I’ll provide details and perspective you don’t get from breathless cable news channels, talk radio and advocate commentators. Once a crisis develops advocacy media will try to convince viewers for or against.

Complicated Issues

Iran is a much more complicated issue.

First of all, at issue is the so called JCPOA. The Joint Comprehensive Plan Of Action.

The JCPOA was signed by all five permanent members of the UN Security Council and Iran during the Obama administration.

Moreover in exchange for Iranians giving up weapons grade uranium some US and European sanctions dating back forty years were temporarily waived.

The Worst Deal Ever…Might Have Been Working

In 2016 republican presidential candidate Donald Trump campaigned on getting rid of the JCPOA calling it ‘the worst deal I’ve ever seen’. In contrast some  sources say Iran was actually abiding by that agreement. By the way, the deal Trump signed with North Korea recently pledging to de-nuclearize the Korean Peninsula was in fact a communique like the JCPOA, with fewer conditions.

Trump Imposes Sanctions

No matter. President Trump has taken the US out of the deal and imposed sanctions last year. Just recently the US has reimposed sanctions on Iran’s oil exports as well as copper, aluminum and steel most recently. The economic effects have not been good for Iran.

Iran Uses Proxies To Retaliate and Threatens To Start Enriching Uranium

Reportedly Iran has retaliated using Houthi rebels in Saudi Arabia to attack oil pipelines and shipping in the Persian Gulf.

Trump Sends The USS Abraham Lincoln

Trump ordered a US carrier battle group into the gulf. The Saudis want Iran ‘defanged‘ and have called for ‘surgical’ US Airstrikes.

24 Hour Cable News Channels and Talk Radio Love War

Here come endless loops of jets leaving carrier decks. Pundits talking over shock and awe. Headlines across the bottom of screens showing US troops in Iraq.

Deja Vu All Over Again

Finally we have been through all this before. It did not end well. In fact it has not ended. The Iranians are not paragons of virtue but they are no Iraq or Afghanistan either.

In conclusion we ought to think about that before we’re snookered into another war.

(Editor’s Note: I refer to PPP when giving Iran’s per capita income at about 22,000 a year. In US Dollars it’s probably about 8,000 a year. In addition I gave Iran’s oil export total as 1.2 barrels a year. Even more it is roughly 1.2 million barrels a day.)

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War-Rumors-Iran-Trump-Bob Davis Podcast 832

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Rule Of Law-Rhetoric-Bob Davis Podcast 831

Rule Of Law-Rhetoric-Bob Davis Podcast 831

Rule Of Law Battle Cry

The latest battle cry among democrats is “We don’t follow the rule of law in this country these days”. Is the House of Representatives playing the white knight battling a lawless pretender in the White House? Find out in Rule Of Law-Rhetoric-Bob Davis Podcast 831.

Democrats and Republicans Fight Like Cats and Dogs

Especially relevant is the ongoing battle between democrats the house and the republican president. The flashpoint? Recent committee hearings on Attorney General Barr’s ‘summary’ of the Mueller report on alleged Russian interference in the 2016 election.

A Bad Divorce

Even more like a bad divorce, Mueller publicly released a letter criticizing Barr’s summary. Consequently a House committee ‘investigating’ Barr’s conclusions demanded Barr ‘testify’ again. Barr refused. As a result, the House Judiciary Committee finds Barr in “contempt of congress”.

Media Churns Up Outrage With Little Background

Hit play on the media machine and this is what you get. Gasp. Barr is in ‘contempt’. Trump is not ‘obeying’ the ‘rule of law’! Horrors! Due to this contempt of the rule of law, something must be done!

What does ‘contempt of congress’ mean?

Will Trump and Barr be cellmates in the house jail?

Time For A Midnight Walk and Talk

On a midnight walk and talk I look into this. People shouting about the ‘rule of law’ might be shocked to learn just what contempt of congress means. How does contempt of congress contrast with contempt of court? Check out Rule Of Law-Rhetoric-Bob Davis Podcast 831.

Everyone Holds All Of Them In Contempt

In addition the administration is in distinguished company when it comes to contempt of congress. Presidents back to the federalists and anti federalists have held congress in contempt and have been held in contempt by congress.

A Kerfuffle Boiled Into ‘Crisis’

Finally do people fully understand the overblown “constitutional crisis” is nothing more than business as usual in Washington? Certainly these kinds of disputes are nothing new.

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Rule Of Law-Rhetoric-Bob Davis Podcast 831

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