Economic-Boom-Smoke-And-Mirrors?-Bob Davis Podcast 872

Everyone Gets An Award. So What?

These days we live in a world where everyone gets an award for participation. Every now and then reality intrudes on our blissful paradise. We’ll talk about the 3rd quarter GDP numbers and what they mean in Economic-Boom-Smoke-And-Mirrors?-Bob Davis Podcast 872.

Ballyhoo and BS

We’ve been the victims of economic ballyhoo at least since 2016. Even more for years since the recession of 2008 we’ve been sold all kinds of snake oil. Green Shoots. The Light At The End Of The Tunnel. Priming The Pump. Economic Boom!

GDP Is The Yardstick

Gross Domestic Product is the yardstick by which we measure the economic performance of the world’s countries. This is especially relevant in the United States, where we will choose a new president and congress in 2020.

How Are We Doing?

Economy is one of the yard sticks by which we determine how our leaders ‘are doing’ at their jobs.

Third Quarter

Therefore when the third quarter GDP numbers came out this week, we now have a third data point on which to judge US economic performance in 2019.

Smoke and Mirrors?

How are we doing? We’ll find out in Economic-Boom-Smoke-And-Mirrors?-Bob Davis Podcast 872.

What’s A Boom?

First of all exactly what does an economic ‘boom’ look like and are we really living through one?

What About All The Other Stats?

Second, what about other measurements like employment, government spending, consumer spending and productivity?

Concentrate On Outcomes

I have often described my mission with these podcasts as a quest to concentrate on outcomes and relatively objective analysis of those outcomes.

No Predictions

Above all I avoid predictions. I won’t use superlatives to describe how great or bad things are. I do not want tell listeners what they’re supposed to think or advocate for.

More Questions

In conclusion, these new numbers raise more questions than answers.

In addition, what about inflation, business investment and growth in the future.

Moreover what about intervention by central banks?

I wonder, if there’s an economic boom why do we need so much government spending and interventions to keep it going? What about the enormous spending deficits and public debt?

Meeting Challenges

Finally what are the biggest economic and therefore social challenges ahead. Are we on path to address those challenges?

I don’t hear too much talk about that on the campaign trail, in government and in the media.

Sponsored by John D. Scott Personal Injury Lawyer and Hoffman Hamer and Associates

Economic-Boom-Smoke-And-Mirrors?-Bob Davis Podcast 872

 

 

 

Nocturnal-Thoughts-Seasonal Changes-Bob Davis Podcast 867

Night Owls Unite

I am a night person. Always was and will be. These days though it’s getting ridiculous. Staying up really late for a free wheeling talker in Nocturnal-Thoughts-Seasonal Changes-Bob Davis Podcast 867.

Extreme Night Person Here

Anyone who knows me is well aware of my scheduling extremes. Especially relevant are the changes I go through when the seasons change. Suddenly also Minnesotans are beginning to get scratchy throats and head colds. Here it comes.

Schedule Flip and SAD Light

First of all, sometimes I stay up so late I end up coming back around. This is what I call schedule flip. Then use something called a SAD light to reset my body clock. During this process I am in schedule hell. Staying up late and waking up too early.

Texts From Friends

Second as I am in the midst of this sleep schedule nightmare I am getting texts from friends. “Did you cover the Trump Rally?“, they want to know. So, unfortunately I have to address these questions in Nocturnal-Thoughts-Seasonal Changes-Bob Davis Podcast 867.

Dumpster Fire News

Because if I have learned anything traveling across the country and covering primaries and caucuses it is that the media loves a dumpster fire. Certainly Minneapolis did not disappoint, with dueling enthusiastic supporters of the president and protesters.

Traveling And Reporting

Above all it looks to me like the question, “Is It News?” hasn’t occurred to anyone. Certainly nothing wrong with getting a bunch of people together to collect email data and campaign contributions and to have something to post on social media. That goes for both sides in these cartoon political times.

Real News? Funny, Right?

Meanwhile the real news? Not getting addressed and ‘bubbling under’ when it comes to real coverage. The situation with Turkey and the Kurds. Stories about the Repo markets and federal reserve returning to a form of quantitative easing you would think would be unnecessary, what with the booming economy.

Talk It Out

Consequently it’s time to just talk it out. Kind of a transition between some of my heavily researched recent podcasts.

Summer’s Long Goodbye

As a result it’s a long goodbye to a great summer and the difficult transition to fall in this podcast. And considering my sleep schedule please don’t fact check on this one!

Sponsored by Fitness Together Private Personalized Training and Nutrition and Reliafund Payment Processors

Nocturnal-Thoughts-Seasonal Changes-Bob Davis Podcast 867

 

 

 

 

Recession-Warning-Media-Confusion-Bob Davis Podcast 855

What Is All This Talk About Recession

These days it’s hard to tell who to believe. In many ways it’s the best economy ever. The best time to look for a job. An unprecedented economic boom. Why is everyone suddenly talking about a recession. Learn more in Recession-Warning-Media-Confusion-Bob Davis Podcast 855.

Not Making Predictions

First of all I am not here to tell you the economy is in the tank, or that it is booming.

Recession! Depression! Do I have Your Attention Now?

Truth is if you put the words recession, bust, or depression in an article you’re going to get people’s attention. In addition it doesn’t hurt to have a couple of historic drops in the stock market.

Now that I have your attention…Listen to Recession-Warning-Media-Confusion-Bob Davis Podcast 855.

Market Drops and Yield Curves Mean New Media Story Lines

It doesn’t matter if the markets recover from those drops.

What matters is now the media has a story line that predicts doom and destruction.

Fool’s Errand

Especially relevant is a lesson I learned a long time ago. It doesn’t matter how well informed a commentator might be. Making predictions about a force of nature like the world’s largest economy, is a fool’s errand.

Shallow Expansion, Debt and Slowing Growth

Even more, it is true our economy is growing and we are enjoying the longest economic expansion in memory. It’s also true it’s a shallow expansion and that growth just above the inflation line, isn’t really booming. Moreover, the expansion is getting pretty long in the tooth, as the say.

There Is A Season

In contrast like the seasons, economies operate on a cycle. Truth is anyone who predicts a recession will ultimately be right. Just like fall into winter recessions have a purpose. Economic contractions kill off the weak plants and animals and insects so the strong and grow again in the spring.

So when the yield curve inverts and the market drops it is certainly worth paying attention.

Seems like we’re missing something though. While the politicians and talking heads trade insults about who’s predictions are right, what are we thinking about?

Election Year Economics

In conclusion what plans to we the people have for the future economy of the United States. I sat down to do a podcast on the yield curve, claims about unemployment and recession predictions. I ended up with an essay on the pitfalls of talking economy in an election year, the ballyhoo on the current economy when the real questions aren’t even being asked. Let alone answered.

It’s 1950 In America…Coal Mines and Manufacturing, right?

Where are we going? What are we trying to accomplish? What kind of economy do we expect in the future. Is it really manufacturing jobs in Ohio and Coal Mines in West Virginia?

Sponsored by Ryan Plumbing and Heating of Saint Paul and Reliafund Payment Processors

Recession-Warning-Media-Confusion-Bob Davis Podcast 855