Nomad-Dollars-Sense-Part2-Bob Davis Podcast 1102

Nomad Dollar Sense Part2

Firstly to focus on nomad dollars and sense in Part2 we’re going to be talking about leading economic indicators. Details in Nomad-Dollars-Sense-Part2-Bob Davis Podcast 1102. For references to details in this podcast listen to Part1 of this series and Bob Davis Podcast 1069.

Don’t Be Afraid Of Numbers

Secondly I use a few numbers.

Data Links With Charts

Therefore I’ll be posting a series of links to the data and charts for that data here.

Because we all know charts often make raw numbers a little clearer.

Not Just Reciting Numbers

However listeners and subscribers should know I’ve worked very hard to keep from just reciting numbers.

Context and Relevance

That is to say that where ever time permits in Nomad-Dollars-Sense-Part2-Bob Davis Podcast 1102 I’ll explain the context and relevance of an indicator.

Most importantly these leading economic indicators do not suggest a healthy economy.

Certainly things could change to the better…

Look Beyond Main Stream

But for the time being we would all be better served to look beyond the mainstream and main street story.

Leading Indicators

To begin with here’s a link to the conference board’s leading indicators.

Hours Worked

And hours worked by Americans nationally.

US GDP

Here’s the GDP numbers for the United States.

Consumer Price Index

And the Consumer Price Index.

Rents Headed Down

More importantly when it comes to rents, take a look at the Zillow Rent Index.

Especially relevant here is the fact that thousands of apartments are being built or coming on line at this time.

Moreover while that’s better for renters it’s not good news if you just bought an apartment building.

In addition this is a number which speaks to inflation overall which still shows shelter elevated.

Producer Price Index

Even more when it comes to inflation the PPI is a better forward indicator of economic growth than the CPI.

Inflation Disinflation Deflation

To sum up these are just some of the data that suggests we’re moving pretty quickly through the inflation, disinflation and deflation sequence.

CRE Loans

Again on consumer and commercial real estate here’s the commercial real estate loan application chart.

Commercial Real Estate Defaults

As an aside commercial real estate defaults are at a fourteen year high.

Mortgage Applications

And mortgage loan applications are down significantly.

Case Schiller

Finally the Case Schiller Home Price Index has been contracting for while and is now dropping. This is the first decline in several years.

Manufacturing

Equally important are the manufacturing numbers.

Oil

Correspondingly the commodity of oil is not following the rosy predictions of the International Oil Agency.

Corporate Profits Already In Recession

As an illustration the American Consumer is also not cooperating …corporate profits are in a recession.

Consumer Credit

Another bell weather is total consumer credit.

Consumer Credit Interest Rates Eating Us Alive

And average consumer credit rates are more than 23 percent these days.

Baltic Dry Is Dry

Furthermore when it comes to transportation costs the Baltic Dry index for the far east has deteriorated significantly.

Real GDP

Another indicator is Real GDP.

Money Supply

By all means the most important indicator and noteworthy metric is the actual money supply.

Again this is not a robustly healthy economy.

To be sure if it was I wouldn’t have to do this podcast series.

Economic Cycles Are Not Synchronized

All things considered Doctor Lacy Hunt’s views on the economic cycle are salient. Watch this video.

In conclusion there’s a lot of data to unpack.

Looking Closer

But looking closer might be the best thing we can do for ourselves right now.

Sponsored by Ryan Plumbing and Heating of Saint Paul

Nomad-Dollars-Sense-Part2-Bob Davis Podcast 1102

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Turning-Point-Eruption-Bob Davis Podcast 1079

Are We At A Turning Point About To Erupt

Above all this podcast asks if we are at a turning point on the eve of an economic eruption. Details in Turning-Point-Eruption-Bob Davis Podcast 1079.

Watching Markets

Firstly I have been watching the economy and the markets very closely ever since the rapid increase of fuel prices last year.

Secondly I’ve done a series of podcasts detailing what I have learned about this situation.

Finally I am clear on the causes of the current inflation.

And the solution.

About To Suffer

Even more as the central banks work to smother the current inflation, we’re about to suffer.

Volcanic Social Eruption

That is to say when it goes it could be a volcanic eruption in our society.

Of course people might say I am a pessimist.

I am not.

In fact I believe all of this will eventually be seen as a positive development.

Difficult Road Ahead

However we have to get to through the difficult road ahead first.

Top Of The Roller Coaster

For example imagine yourself at the very top of a roller coaster.

As the coaster heads down there’s a feeling of weightlessness.

And then fear.

Biggest Bubble In History

That is to say today we have what many experts describe as the biggest everything bubble in history.

The More You Know

Certainly I have learned the more you know about these things the less you know.

But what interests me are the potential volcanic effects on our society.

And the melt down.

Round House

In conclusion it’s as though our train as reached the old fashioned round house house having come in on one track.

And being turned to go out in a different direction.

Living Through The Easy Part

In short if you think the past couple of years have been tough think again.

We’ve been living through the easy part of the cycle.

In the same vein now comes the hard part.

Clinging To The Old World

Finally given the situation it’s interesting how people use debt to cling to an old lifestyle.

Ignorance Is Bliss

And how many seem unaware they’re living on top of a volcano.

About to erupt.

Turning-Point-Eruption-Bob Davis Podcast 1079

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Travel-With-Higher-Prices-Bob Davis Podcast 1048

Travel With Higher Prices

Back on the road for travel with higher prices. Time to talk about the basic causes of high inflation and what’s ahead for nomads. Revisiting some topics from earlier podcasts. Listen to Travel-With-Higher-Prices-Bob Davis Podcast 1048.

Euphoria Back On The Road

Firstly even a short trip back on the road delivers the same euphoria and excitement longer trips delivered last year.

Things Have Changed

Second things have definitely changed.

People Don’t Understand What’s Happening

Even more after many discussions with people I’ve met recently there is clearly a lack of understanding what’s going on and what’s caused these prices.

All The Key Information Assembled Here

In addition I have not been able to find all the key information assembled in one place.

Therefore that is the plan for Travel-With-Higher-Prices-Bob Davis Podcast 1048.

The Cure For High Prices

Above all most of the time high prices lead to a recession.

Learn The Word Monetary

Certainly as Milton Friedman said Inflation is Always and Everywhere A Monetary Phenomenon.

Too Many Dollars

That is to say too many dollars chasing too few goods.

Recession Ahead

And inflation often leads to recession.

Good News For Nomads

Due to the fact that recessions often lead to lower prices things might be looking up for us nomads.

California Gas Gouger

Meanwhile the media and politicians don’t talk about high fuel taxes irrationally gouge working Americans.

For example California’s tax on diesel is 68 cents. On gas it’s nearly 52 cents.

Exxon Should Take A Lesson From California

Even the oil companies could take a lesson on gouging from the State Of California.

Short Trips

In short I took a short trip into the so called Golden State intending to head to Los Angeles.

Cash Leaking Out Of My Wallet

However I turned right around and came back to Arizona due to the amount of cash leaking out of my wallet.

Longer Stays and Free Camping Please

Most importantly it’s short trips, longer stays and free camping for this nomad.

There Goes The Punch Bowl

In addition as the Federal Reserve takes away the punch bowl and pulls the slats out from under the economy I’m cheering.

Stock and Real Estate Market Shocks

Finally what’s ahead for the world back home might be stock and real estate market crashes and inevitable job losses we nomads have our fingers crossed for lower prices.

No House To Lose Here

In short if you’re on the road full time you probably don’t have a house to lose or high rent to pay.

Why We Hit The Road

Moreover this was the reason many of us decided to hit the road.

Nomad Story

It’s an important park of the nomad story.

Falling Off A Cliff

To sum up big market moves usually don’t happen fast.

But it’s kind of like falling over a cliff and grabbing branches on the way down.

As you fall you’re up and down but the general direction is down.

Good News The Media Won’t Tell You About

In conclusion that’s good news for nomads.

Maybe not so much for everyone else back in the world.

Travel-With-Higher-Prices-Bob Davis Podcast 1048

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