Nomad-Dollars-Sense-Part2-Bob Davis Podcast 1102

Nomad Dollar Sense Part2

Firstly to focus on nomad dollars and sense in Part2 we’re going to be talking about leading economic indicators. Details in Nomad-Dollars-Sense-Part2-Bob Davis Podcast 1102. For references to details in this podcast listen to Part1 of this series and Bob Davis Podcast 1069.

Don’t Be Afraid Of Numbers

Secondly I use a few numbers.

Data Links With Charts

Therefore I’ll be posting a series of links to the data and charts for that data here.

Because we all know charts often make raw numbers a little clearer.

Not Just Reciting Numbers

However listeners and subscribers should know I’ve worked very hard to keep from just reciting numbers.

Context and Relevance

That is to say that where ever time permits in Nomad-Dollars-Sense-Part2-Bob Davis Podcast 1102 I’ll explain the context and relevance of an indicator.

Most importantly these leading economic indicators do not suggest a healthy economy.

Certainly things could change to the better…

Look Beyond Main Stream

But for the time being we would all be better served to look beyond the mainstream and main street story.

Leading Indicators

To begin with here’s a link to the conference board’s leading indicators.

Hours Worked

And hours worked by Americans nationally.

US GDP

Here’s the GDP numbers for the United States.

Consumer Price Index

And the Consumer Price Index.

Rents Headed Down

More importantly when it comes to rents, take a look at the Zillow Rent Index.

Especially relevant here is the fact that thousands of apartments are being built or coming on line at this time.

Moreover while that’s better for renters it’s not good news if you just bought an apartment building.

In addition this is a number which speaks to inflation overall which still shows shelter elevated.

Producer Price Index

Even more when it comes to inflation the PPI is a better forward indicator of economic growth than the CPI.

Inflation Disinflation Deflation

To sum up these are just some of the data that suggests we’re moving pretty quickly through the inflation, disinflation and deflation sequence.

CRE Loans

Again on consumer and commercial real estate here’s the commercial real estate loan application chart.

Commercial Real Estate Defaults

As an aside commercial real estate defaults are at a fourteen year high.

Mortgage Applications

And mortgage loan applications are down significantly.

Case Schiller

Finally the Case Schiller Home Price Index has been contracting for while and is now dropping. This is the first decline in several years.

Manufacturing

Equally important are the manufacturing numbers.

Oil

Correspondingly the commodity of oil is not following the rosy predictions of the International Oil Agency.

Corporate Profits Already In Recession

As an illustration the American Consumer is also not cooperating …corporate profits are in a recession.

Consumer Credit

Another bell weather is total consumer credit.

Consumer Credit Interest Rates Eating Us Alive

And average consumer credit rates are more than 23 percent these days.

Baltic Dry Is Dry

Furthermore when it comes to transportation costs the Baltic Dry index for the far east has deteriorated significantly.

Real GDP

Another indicator is Real GDP.

Money Supply

By all means the most important indicator and noteworthy metric is the actual money supply.

Again this is not a robustly healthy economy.

To be sure if it was I wouldn’t have to do this podcast series.

Economic Cycles Are Not Synchronized

All things considered Doctor Lacy Hunt’s views on the economic cycle are salient. Watch this video.

In conclusion there’s a lot of data to unpack.

Looking Closer

But looking closer might be the best thing we can do for ourselves right now.

Sponsored by Ryan Plumbing and Heating of Saint Paul

Nomad-Dollars-Sense-Part2-Bob Davis Podcast 1102

Summers-End-Turning-Point-2022-Bob Davis Podcast 1068

Summers End Turning Point 2022

Firstly summers end is always a turning point. You might remember this one for a long time. Details in Summers-End-Turning-Point-2022-Bob Davis Podcast 1068.

Not Political

Secondly these are not political podcasts.

Economy

Certainly they have to do with the US and world economies.

However one of the chief mistakes of many analysts is their penchant for attaching economic problems to current political leaders.

Inflation Years In The Making

Most importantly the inflation nomads and people back home are dealing with was years in the making.

Major Slow Down Ahead?

In addition one of the biggest takeaways from this podcast is the increasing possibility for a major slow down and a shift from inflation to deflation.

Recession

For example Germany, China and technically the United States are already in recession.

Feeling The Pinch

And smaller economies and developing economies are also feeling the pinch.

The Cause? Not What You Think

While much has been made of the war in Ukraine or supply issues these are not the root cause of the inflation in the United States.

Gas and Food For Nomads

Above all we nomads feel the pain when it comes to gas and food prices.

Everything For everyone Else

And for the people in the and of bricks and sticks it’s just about everything else.

In Summers-End-Turning-Point-2022-Bob Davis Podcast 1068 I argue that the inflation we’re dealing with has been caused by years of near zero interest rates and something called quantitative easing.

Don’t Bet On A Pivot

In the same vein analysts keep saying the US Federal Reserve will ‘pivot’ soon.

95 Billion Every Month Bought For Years

To clarify Quantitative Easing has taken the form of the central bank buying 95 billion dollars worth of bonds EVERY MONTH.

Now Selling 95 Billion Every Month

More importantly Quantitative Tightening is the central bank selling off 95 billion dollars worth of bonds EVERY MONTH.

Moreover those bonds are ramping up to a full 95 billion EVERY MONTH in September.

That’s a lot of liquidity sucked out of the banking system.

Therefore listeners can see why I say Summers End is a Turning Point.

Meanwhile I emphasize EVERY MONTH here because I did not in Summers-End-Turning-Point-2022-Bob Davis Podcast 1068.

Sponsored by BeYou Enterprises

Summers-End-Turning-Point-2022-Bob Davis Podcast 1068

The-Real-Matrix-Bob Davis Podcast 1063

The Real Matrix

Firstly The Real Matrix exceeds the wildest dreams of movie makers. Details in The-Real-Matrix-Bob Davis Podcast 1063.

Provo

Secondly what better place to talk about The Real Matrix than a Walmart Super Center in Provo Utah?

Walmart As A Reference Point

Above all this kind of place is kind of a reference point for me.

Certainly there are Walmart’s all over the United States.

I’ve been to a lot of them.

Walmart All Night

In addition you can still hang out in some Walmart parking lots all night.

Convenience For Nomads

And Nomads love the convenience in transit.

Maintenance

Most importantly I am in Utah to get some maintenance for Mobile Podcast Command.

All Terrain Tires

That is to say if you listened to my adventure in Dinosaur National Monument you know I need All Terrain Tires and maintenance.

Fragile Economic System

But as I walk through the Walmart here in Provo to do this podcast I am reminded how fragile our economic system is right now.

Enormous Influence

As a result I think it’s time to reinforce the fact that The US Federal Reserve Bank has enormous influence in our society.

The Real Matrix

Enough influence to function as The Real Matrix.

Inflation

Moreover as our central bank struggles to control inflation the result may be a recession.

Deflation

Even more a much bigger and more dangerous recession may be in the making.

Meanwhile every nomad I know is rooting for a deflationary recession.

Food and Fuel

That is to say much lower prices for fuel and the things we nomads need.

Back In The World

On the other hand this kind of situation might not be good for people back in the world.

Pressures Of Life

Finally I have often talked about the pressure of life back in the land of bricks and sticks.

No Judgements

Certainly this is not offered as a judgement.

Observation

But only an observation.

Gratitude

And it makes me glad to be a nomad.

Income Not Keeping Pace With Inflation

For example recent data shows incomes are not keeping pace with inflation.

Adds To The Pressure

And that adds a lot of pressure to life.

Provo Itself

To sum up Provo itself is a much younger community.

Therefore I talk about Provo’s demographics and history a little bit.

And of course, there’s nothing like a walk through a Walmart!

Sponsored by Ryan Plumbing and Heating of Saint Paul

The-Real-Matrix-Bob Davis Podcast 1063