Nomad Dollar Sense Part2

Firstly to focus on nomad dollars and sense in Part2 we’re going to be talking about leading economic indicators. Details in Nomad-Dollars-Sense-Part2-Bob Davis Podcast 1102. For references to details in this podcast listen to Part1 of this series and Bob Davis Podcast 1069.

Don’t Be Afraid Of Numbers

Secondly I use a few numbers.

Data Links With Charts

Therefore I’ll be posting a series of links to the data and charts for that data here.

Because we all know charts often make raw numbers a little clearer.

Not Just Reciting Numbers

However listeners and subscribers should know I’ve worked very hard to keep from just reciting numbers.

Context and Relevance

That is to say that where ever time permits in Nomad-Dollars-Sense-Part2-Bob Davis Podcast 1102 I’ll explain the context and relevance of an indicator.

Most importantly these leading economic indicators do not suggest a healthy economy.

Certainly things could change to the better…

Look Beyond Main Stream

But for the time being we would all be better served to look beyond the mainstream and main street story.

Leading Indicators

To begin with here’s a link to the conference board’s leading indicators.

Hours Worked

And hours worked by Americans nationally.

US GDP

Here’s the GDP numbers for the United States.

Consumer Price Index

And the Consumer Price Index.

Rents Headed Down

More importantly when it comes to rents, take a look at the Zillow Rent Index.

Especially relevant here is the fact that thousands of apartments are being built or coming on line at this time.

Moreover while that’s better for renters it’s not good news if you just bought an apartment building.

In addition this is a number which speaks to inflation overall which still shows shelter elevated.

Producer Price Index

Even more when it comes to inflation the PPI is a better forward indicator of economic growth than the CPI.

Inflation Disinflation Deflation

To sum up these are just some of the data that suggests we’re moving pretty quickly through the inflation, disinflation and deflation sequence.

CRE Loans

Again on consumer and commercial real estate here’s the commercial real estate loan application chart.

Commercial Real Estate Defaults

As an aside commercial real estate defaults are at a fourteen year high.

Mortgage Applications

And mortgage loan applications are down significantly.

Case Schiller

Finally the Case Schiller Home Price Index has been contracting for while and is now dropping. This is the first decline in several years.

Manufacturing

Equally important are the manufacturing numbers.

Oil

Correspondingly the commodity of oil is not following the rosy predictions of the International Oil Agency.

Corporate Profits Already In Recession

As an illustration the American Consumer is also not cooperating …corporate profits are in a recession.

Consumer Credit

Another bell weather is total consumer credit.

Consumer Credit Interest Rates Eating Us Alive

And average consumer credit rates are more than 23 percent these days.

Baltic Dry Is Dry

Furthermore when it comes to transportation costs the Baltic Dry index for the far east has deteriorated significantly.

Real GDP

Another indicator is Real GDP.

Money Supply

By all means the most important indicator and noteworthy metric is the actual money supply.

Again this is not a robustly healthy economy.

To be sure if it was I wouldn’t have to do this podcast series.

Economic Cycles Are Not Synchronized

All things considered Doctor Lacy Hunt’s views on the economic cycle are salient. Watch this video.

In conclusion there’s a lot of data to unpack.

Looking Closer

But looking closer might be the best thing we can do for ourselves right now.

Sponsored by Ryan Plumbing and Heating of Saint Paul

Nomad-Dollars-Sense-Part2-Bob Davis Podcast 1102

Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 37:02 — 84.8MB) | Embed

Subscribe: RSS