Trumpers-Think-Political-Polls-Lie-Bob Davis Podcast 862

Trumpers-Think-Political-Polls-Lie-Bob Davis Podcast 862

Republicans Hate Polls…Unless They Show Trump In The Lead

There’s so much bias these days on every media platform there’s no trust. A conversation with a republican friend lead to this podcast about whether polls lie. Find out more by listening to Trumpers-Think-Political-Polls-Lie-Bob Davis Podcast 862.

Who Did The Poll?

First of all when it comes to polling, the first question a republican will ask is, “Who did the poll”. Especially if it reflects poorly on the president. In addition their second favorite response is, “No One Called Me”. Gah!

What Poll Will You Accept?

In contrast I wonder, “What poll would you accept?“.

Polling Explained. Again.

It’s time again to explain polling and the potential for a republican win or loss in 2020.

No bias or predictions. Just the lay of the land.

Accept and Consider Information Challenging Your Position

Above all political true believers reject any poll that doesn’t show their guy winning. Even more, political analysis requires accepting and considering information that challenges you.

Approval Ratings 101

In Trumpers-Think-Political-Polls-Lie-Bob Davis Podcast 862 front and center are approval ratings and their ability to predict winners.

Past Elections

Moreover I’ll look at how you can use polls to make solid judgements. I’ll also talk about the history of past elections as a tool.

Polls Don’t Lie … The Media Lies

Not only do I reject the assertion the polls “lie”. When averaged they can be quite predictive.

Unfortunately the wholesale ignorance of polling in our media is especially relevant. For Example, while the polls in 2016 showed a close race for president, they never predicted a Clinton win.

Trump Struggles In The Battleground States

Finally at issue are tracking polls showing the president’s approval rating in battleground states plummeting. With manufacturing reportedly in recession in Wisconsin and Michigan, republican bosses are concerned. They should be. Trump has to win the battleground states to win a second term.

A Republican Siding With The UAW?

Perhaps it is for that reason that the president is rumored to want to intervene in a current GM strike, in favor of the UAW.

History And No Judgements

Therefore this podcast is valuable because it looks at chances for both a landslide as well as a tough race, without judgements and predictions. There’s a lot of information here about past presidential races, the history of polling and approval ratings. It might come in handy.

Sponsored by Reliafund Payment Processors and The Strategic Business Planners at Virtus Law

Trumpers-Think-Political-Polls-Lie-Bob Davis Podcast 862

Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 33:53 — 77.6MB) | Embed

Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | RSS

Booming US Economy-Reality Check-Bob Davis Podcast 811

Booming US Economy-Reality Check-Bob Davis Podcast 811

These days Trump cultists love to talk about the booming economy. Time for a reality check. Learn more in Booming US Economy-Reality Check-Bob Davis Podcast 811.

Under 3 Percent

Especially relevant are Gross Domestic Product numbers from the 4th quarter of 2018. The average for the whole year is predicted to be under three percent.

Cherry Picking Numbers

Boosters like to cherry pick statistics. I like good old Gross Domestic Product numbers. They are released at the end of every quarter. GDP performance for each fiscal year is pretty hard to ignore. Especially when people say this president has ‘fixed’ the economy and worked miracles.

Just Because You Do Well Doesn’t Mean The Economy Is Doing Well

Moreover if I’ve heard it once I have heard it a thousand times. Saying your business is doing well does not mean the economy as a whole is doing any better than it has. The latest retail performance is a good example. This distinction is important only because the president wants us to believe he “blows Ronald Reagan Away”.

Objective Legislative Achievements On Economy

In Booming US Economy-Reality Check-Bob Davis Podcast 811 I objectively list President Trump’s few legislative achievements when it comes to the economy as well as his executive orders concerning the economy.

Hardly A Boom

In 2017 the US Economy grew by 2.2 percent. First quarter of 2018 was 2.2 percent. Second quarter 4.2 percent. Third quarter 3.4 percent. Fourth quarter 2.6 percent. Hardly a boom.

Not Even As Good As Obama

In contrast, President Obama’s best year was 2015, at 2.9 percent. Obama also presided over one quarter of growth of 5.1 percent, followed by another quarter of 4.9 percent growth. Better than Trump’s best two quarters so far.

Actual GDP Numbers

First of all growth is growth and we’ll take it. However, because of republican claims of great economic success, it’s time for a reality check based on actual GDP numbers.

And Obama Wasn’t That Good Either

At issue are claims by the president and his supporters he has done a fantastic job. Truth is so far his numbers are still about the same as Obama’s, which weren’t very good either.

We Pale In Contrast To The Early 80’s, Mid and Early 1960’s and 1950’s

Even more, all the numbers in our time pale in contrast to performance above 7 percent in the 80’s, high six percent in the 60’s and above 8 percent in the 1950’s.

Contrast our time with the 1980’s, 1960’s, or 1950’s.

What we’re living through is not a boom.

Republican Doesn’t Mean Conservative Anymore

Finally a republican in the White House does not guarantee ‘conservative’ economic management. Pushing for a weak dollar. Borrowing to stimulate. Trade Protection. Adding trillions to the national debt. More debt and deficit spending for ‘infrastructure‘ don’t seem like ‘republican‘ ideas.

Sponsored by Organo Coffee. Change Your Coffee Change Your Life

Booming US Economy-Reality Check-Bob Davis Podcast 811

Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 31:46 — 72.7MB) | Embed

Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | RSS

Sushi-Shutdown-Emergency-Bully-Pulpit-Bob Davis Podcast 794

Sushi-Shutdown-Emergency-Bully-Pulpit-Bob Davis Podcast 794

These days we content creators have to post advisories and disclaimers. This podcast is not a list of reasons to ‘build the wall’. It does not include 5 reasons to impeach Trump. Learn more in Sushi-Shutdown-Emergency-Bully-Pulpit-Bob Davis Podcast 794.

Trump Blew It In 2018

Especially relevant is the fact that less than a month ago the so called conservative base was furious at the president and the republican party for taking a ‘shellacking’ in the midterm elections.

It Is Trump’s Fault

Furthermore I did several podcasts on the midterms explaining polling showed the GOP did not have to lose congress.

Raise The Stakes To Win

Therefore it is most noteworthy that the president opened the new year by raising the stakes. First a government shut down. Then threats to declare an national emergency.

What’s the issue?

A campaign promise by Donald Trump to solve what he has described as a crisis on the border.

Consequently, the solution he hit upon? ‘Build A Wall‘.

First of all. the president failed to get a republican congress to fund a wall. Now he has redoubled his efforts to get a democrat house to fund the wall, which they say they won’t. Enter the shut down. Enter the specter of a ‘National Emergency‘.

Outrage Controversy and Emotional Outpouring

If outrage and controversy over the shut down wasn’t enough, Trump is raising the stakes with threats to declare a national emergency. Under an emergency the military can build what is now described as a steel barrier by the president. Or at least he thinks so. Is he right? Find out in Sushi-Shutdown-Emergency-Bully-Pulpit-Bob Davis Podcast 794.

The Sushi Shutdown

After a late evening sushi happy hour, I came to my studio to tell the truth about this whole episode. It’s not about the shut down or even a national emergency. Trump is doing what Roy Cohn taught him to do many years ago. Make threats. Throw tantrums. Demand. Raise the stakes until the other guy gives you what he wants. Above all force the opposition to talk about what you want to talk about. Control the media battle space. Use the ‘bully pulpit‘.

Throwing Blood In The Water To Shore Up The Base

In conclusion, Trump does this again and again. And everyone takes the bait, hook line and sinker.

Every time.

Sponsored by Reliafund Payment Processors and WhiteTail Builders

Sushi-Shutdown-Emergency-Bully-Pulpit-Bob Davis Podcast 794

Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 36:44 — 84.1MB) | Embed

Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | RSS