Economic-Boom-Smoke-And-Mirrors?-Bob Davis Podcast 872

Everyone Gets An Award. So What?

These days we live in a world where everyone gets an award for participation. Every now and then reality intrudes on our blissful paradise. We’ll talk about the 3rd quarter GDP numbers and what they mean in Economic-Boom-Smoke-And-Mirrors?-Bob Davis Podcast 872.

Ballyhoo and BS

We’ve been the victims of economic ballyhoo at least since 2016. Even more for years since the recession of 2008 we’ve been sold all kinds of snake oil. Green Shoots. The Light At The End Of The Tunnel. Priming The Pump. Economic Boom!

GDP Is The Yardstick

Gross Domestic Product is the yardstick by which we measure the economic performance of the world’s countries. This is especially relevant in the United States, where we will choose a new president and congress in 2020.

How Are We Doing?

Economy is one of the yard sticks by which we determine how our leaders ‘are doing’ at their jobs.

Third Quarter

Therefore when the third quarter GDP numbers came out this week, we now have a third data point on which to judge US economic performance in 2019.

Smoke and Mirrors?

How are we doing? We’ll find out in Economic-Boom-Smoke-And-Mirrors?-Bob Davis Podcast 872.

What’s A Boom?

First of all exactly what does an economic ‘boom’ look like and are we really living through one?

What About All The Other Stats?

Second, what about other measurements like employment, government spending, consumer spending and productivity?

Concentrate On Outcomes

I have often described my mission with these podcasts as a quest to concentrate on outcomes and relatively objective analysis of those outcomes.

No Predictions

Above all I avoid predictions. I won’t use superlatives to describe how great or bad things are. I do not want tell listeners what they’re supposed to think or advocate for.

More Questions

In conclusion, these new numbers raise more questions than answers.

In addition, what about inflation, business investment and growth in the future.

Moreover what about intervention by central banks?

I wonder, if there’s an economic boom why do we need so much government spending and interventions to keep it going? What about the enormous spending deficits and public debt?

Meeting Challenges

Finally what are the biggest economic and therefore social challenges ahead. Are we on path to address those challenges?

I don’t hear too much talk about that on the campaign trail, in government and in the media.

Sponsored by John D. Scott Personal Injury Lawyer and Hoffman Hamer and Associates

Economic-Boom-Smoke-And-Mirrors?-Bob Davis Podcast 872

 

 

 

Booming US Economy-Reality Check-Bob Davis Podcast 811

These days Trump cultists love to talk about the booming economy. Time for a reality check. Learn more in Booming US Economy-Reality Check-Bob Davis Podcast 811.

Under 3 Percent

Especially relevant are Gross Domestic Product numbers from the 4th quarter of 2018. The average for the whole year is predicted to be under three percent.

Cherry Picking Numbers

Boosters like to cherry pick statistics. I like good old Gross Domestic Product numbers. They are released at the end of every quarter. GDP performance for each fiscal year is pretty hard to ignore. Especially when people say this president has ‘fixed’ the economy and worked miracles.

Just Because You Do Well Doesn’t Mean The Economy Is Doing Well

Moreover if I’ve heard it once I have heard it a thousand times. Saying your business is doing well does not mean the economy as a whole is doing any better than it has. The latest retail performance is a good example. This distinction is important only because the president wants us to believe he “blows Ronald Reagan Away”.

Objective Legislative Achievements On Economy

In Booming US Economy-Reality Check-Bob Davis Podcast 811 I objectively list President Trump’s few legislative achievements when it comes to the economy as well as his executive orders concerning the economy.

Hardly A Boom

In 2017 the US Economy grew by 2.2 percent. First quarter of 2018 was 2.2 percent. Second quarter 4.2 percent. Third quarter 3.4 percent. Fourth quarter 2.6 percent. Hardly a boom.

Not Even As Good As Obama

In contrast, President Obama’s best year was 2015, at 2.9 percent. Obama also presided over one quarter of growth of 5.1 percent, followed by another quarter of 4.9 percent growth. Better than Trump’s best two quarters so far.

Actual GDP Numbers

First of all growth is growth and we’ll take it. However, because of republican claims of great economic success, it’s time for a reality check based on actual GDP numbers.

And Obama Wasn’t That Good Either

At issue are claims by the president and his supporters he has done a fantastic job. Truth is so far his numbers are still about the same as Obama’s, which weren’t very good either.

We Pale In Contrast To The Early 80’s, Mid and Early 1960’s and 1950’s

Even more, all the numbers in our time pale in contrast to performance above 7 percent in the 80’s, high six percent in the 60’s and above 8 percent in the 1950’s.

Contrast our time with the 1980’s, 1960’s, or 1950’s.

What we’re living through is not a boom.

Republican Doesn’t Mean Conservative Anymore

Finally a republican in the White House does not guarantee ‘conservative’ economic management. Pushing for a weak dollar. Borrowing to stimulate. Trade Protection. Adding trillions to the national debt. More debt and deficit spending for ‘infrastructure‘ don’t seem like ‘republican‘ ideas.

Sponsored by Organo Coffee. Change Your Coffee Change Your Life

Booming US Economy-Reality Check-Bob Davis Podcast 811

Podcast 521

Stormy Weather. In a surprise only to ‘conservatives’ who listen only to ‘conservative’ talk show hosts, watch ‘conservative’ TV shows and go to conservative websites, the FBI decided not to recommend criminal prosecution of former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton over her use of a personal email server while she was in the Obama Administration. Why? The short answer is, intent is a key consideration in cases like these. The long answer is, Mrs. Clinton played her ‘Benghazi Card’ better known as ‘If I go down, you go down’ and she got action from the administration. At least that’s one possible explanation. In the past few days President Obama suddenly closed ranks with the Clintons (despite all the rumors of the rancor between the Obamas and the Clintons). Attorney General Loretta Lynch had a now famous ‘tarmac meeting’ with former president Bill Clinton and President Obama allowed Hillary Clinton to ride Air Force One with him to a campaign event, where they walked, hand in hand, down the steps. “If I go down, YOU go down”. Now it’s a matter of politics. He said, she said. He said she’s a crook. She said he’s an anti semite. Congress releases a damning report on the administration’s conduct regarding ‘Benghazi’…Democrats say it is a partisan document. Republicans say it’s the ‘truth’ about Mrs Clinton and her boss, President Obama. “If I go down, YOU go down.” More fodder for the campaign trail. They were asleep and the switch, says one side. They’re partisan dividers, says the other side. Meanwhile the world’s leading economies are drowning in a sea of paper money and deficit spending, and economies are faltering. Do you really think this election is going to fix anything? We live in interesting times, with the great potential of a new technical industrial revolution and all that portends, and a personal challenge to change the way we think and how we work, and what we demand of our political institutions. Too bad our sclerotic politics delivers a statist who wants to spend and tax more, and a statist who wants to wall the country off from the rest of the world. We could have this technology revolution now, or we can languish for another thirty years while these idiots we call presidential candidates stumble around in economic darkness. Yeah sure, go ahead and talk until you’re blue in the face about Hillary’s email server, or about the Star of David on Trump’s twitter account, while the printing presses debase the currency, governments spend themselves into the poor house, the media puts on cartoons and calls them news, and we hurtle toward our destiny, whatever that may be. The US is now a country that’s happy about revised economic growth from .5 percent to 1.1 percent, with 95 million people out of the work force, a media that writes gossip and calls it news, and a population that believes Russian Propaganda and You Tube conspiracy theories because…what’s the difference? The Earth is hollow, you know and there’s a whole civilization down there, right? And you wonder about moral hazard? Sponsored by Karow Contracting and Brush Studio in the West End, Saint Louis Park. (Editor’s Note: In this podcast I refer to former CIA Director David Petraeus’ offenses regarding passing classified information with intent, and engaging in a coverup after as occurring while Petraeus was on active military duty. I wondered whether he would be under the Military Code of Justice in this case. This is incorrect. Petraeus was director of the CIA when the offenses occurred and not on active duty. For comparison to the Clinton question, one should refer to the FBI director’s congressional testimony regarding the differences between the Clinton question and the Petraeus case.)