Booming US Economy-Reality Check-Bob Davis Podcast 811

These days Trump cultists love to talk about the booming economy. Time for a reality check. Learn more in Booming US Economy-Reality Check-Bob Davis Podcast 811.

Under 3 Percent

Especially relevant are Gross Domestic Product numbers from the 4th quarter of 2018. The average for the whole year is predicted to be under three percent.

Cherry Picking Numbers

Boosters like to cherry pick statistics. I like good old Gross Domestic Product numbers. They are released at the end of every quarter. GDP performance for each fiscal year is pretty hard to ignore. Especially when people say this president has ‘fixed’ the economy and worked miracles.

Just Because You Do Well Doesn’t Mean The Economy Is Doing Well

Moreover if I’ve heard it once I have heard it a thousand times. Saying your business is doing well does not mean the economy as a whole is doing any better than it has. The latest retail performance is a good example. This distinction is important only because the president wants us to believe he “blows Ronald Reagan Away”.

Objective Legislative Achievements On Economy

In Booming US Economy-Reality Check-Bob Davis Podcast 811 I objectively list President Trump’s few legislative achievements when it comes to the economy as well as his executive orders concerning the economy.

Hardly A Boom

In 2017 the US Economy grew by 2.2 percent. First quarter of 2018 was 2.2 percent. Second quarter 4.2 percent. Third quarter 3.4 percent. Fourth quarter 2.6 percent. Hardly a boom.

Not Even As Good As Obama

In contrast, President Obama’s best year was 2015, at 2.9 percent. Obama also presided over one quarter of growth of 5.1 percent, followed by another quarter of 4.9 percent growth. Better than Trump’s best two quarters so far.

Actual GDP Numbers

First of all growth is growth and we’ll take it. However, because of republican claims of great economic success, it’s time for a reality check based on actual GDP numbers.

And Obama Wasn’t That Good Either

At issue are claims by the president and his supporters he has done a fantastic job. Truth is so far his numbers are still about the same as Obama’s, which weren’t very good either.

We Pale In Contrast To The Early 80’s, Mid and Early 1960’s and 1950’s

Even more, all the numbers in our time pale in contrast to performance above 7 percent in the 80’s, high six percent in the 60’s and above 8 percent in the 1950’s.

Contrast our time with the 1980’s, 1960’s, or 1950’s.

What we’re living through is not a boom.

Republican Doesn’t Mean Conservative Anymore

Finally a republican in the White House does not guarantee ‘conservative’ economic management. Pushing for a weak dollar. Borrowing to stimulate. Trade Protection. Adding trillions to the national debt. More debt and deficit spending for ‘infrastructure‘ don’t seem like ‘republican‘ ideas.

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Booming US Economy-Reality Check-Bob Davis Podcast 811

Storm Clouds Gather Over The Bull Market-Podcast 665

We don’t see the storm building over the markets. Distractions. Shiny things that draw the eye and ear. A war of words between a North Korean dictator and the president. Kneeling football players and the Tweeter In Chief. Meanwhile, the long expansion in the markets may be about to end. A heads up for you on how and why in Storm Clouds Gather Over The Bull Market-Podcast 665.

Watch The Shiny Thing

We don’t look beyond the distractions in the media to see what they conceal. No amount of pointing and saying ‘look’ is going to change it. We have not had a serious market or financial crisis since 2008. Our economy has been on life support ever since. Now the DNR order has been signed. Find out why in Storm Clouds Gather Over The Bull Market-Podcast 665.

Market Shocks Have Political Consequences

Remember 2008? The market crashed. The banking system was going to seize up, they said. A republican administration suddenly bailed out the banks, insurance companies and big car companies. The shock changed politics. A new administration came in, in 2009. New banking regulations, more government spending and a very large stimulus package was passed by congress.

Hey! What Happened To The Punch Bowl?

The Federal Reserve, bank of last resort, began a program called Quantitative Easing in 2009. Over the next eight years the FED added trillions of dollars to its balance sheet as it ‘injected’ money into the US economy. QE one, two three and four indirectly supported the stock market through the purchase of hundreds of billions of dollars worth of securities. What happens when they take that away?

Pay Attention

So this is a simple heads up that it might be time to start paying attention. While we’re talking about things that don’t matter they are doing things that do. That storm roiling to the west, might be rolling in anytime. In Storm Clouds Gather Over The Bull Market-Podcast 665.

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Storm Clouds Gather Over The Bull Market-Podcast 665

 

 

 

Podcast 613-Rising Tide? Trump’s Minimal Economic Impact

We’re Growing Again Right?

Trump ballyhoos new numbers. Seems like the new president is turning our economy around. A rising tide? What does an improving economy look like? Are there actions that cause real economic growth? Do you think new leaders are taking those actions?

Republicans Know How To Fix The Economy Right?

Deregulation. Tax cuts and reform. Infrastructure construction. Campaign Pledges were made. Pledges spurred optimism. Furthermore promises can be kept because republicans are in charge and republicans understand business. So the story goes.

Trump Has Already Started Making Things Better Right?

Trump claims credit for the new numbers. Can a new president have an economic impact after less than 90 days?

What’s Better?

How do you define economic success for the United States? Better job? More money? Saving a job? Getting a loan for business or housing? Seeing your 401K account fatten because of stock performance? Cheaper gas? GDP? Productivity? Improved employment? Interest Rates? Jobs coming back to America? Consequently how do you know when it’s working?

What Has Been Done?

Because of the new numbers coverage exploded. However, what have Trump and the new Congress actually done? Executive orders on regulation. Business and the environment. Pipelines. Budget cuts. Trade and the budget. In conclusion, is there an impact on the economy overall?

How Do You Know?

Who are the people that put these reports together and what methodology do they use? How do economists and traders judge these numbers? Seems like people accept them at face value. Should you place confidence in these reports?

What Actually Works?

Are there specific actions that can be taken to grow our economy? If business and economic philosophy is important, what do our leaders believe? Do you think there is a standard approach to economics and government in Washington? More importantly, we know ideas counter to the current approach exist. Will the new congress and president embrace them?

Back To The ’50’s

Let’s face it. We have a sclerotic, 1950’s style government. People are developing and using new technological tools developed for the 21st Century. Moving fast toward building a new world. Block Chain Currencies. Improved Communication tools. Robotic manufacturing. Higher productivity. Government might be out of step with those developments.

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