Art-Of-Politics-Polling-Prediction-Bob Davis Podcast 935

Updating Current Political Polls

Firstly Art-Of-Politics-Polling-Prediction-Bob Davis Podcast 935 is part of a series of podcasts updating current polls for 2020.

No Blanket Statements

Secondly I tend to avoid blanket statements when it comes to political polls.

Politics is An Art

Finally I believe despite all the technology we have politics is still an art.

No Silver Bullet For Predictions

Even more there is no application or spreadsheet that can ‘predict’ an outcome based on polls.

Probabilities

In short we can only look at probabilities.

Snapshots

Polls are snapshots in real time.

Shocking Confusion When It Comes To Polls

Meanwhile pundits and commentators continue to display a shocking confusion when it comes to understanding political polling.

Out and Out Bias

Most importantly some are ‘in the tank’ for one or the other candidate.

National Polls A Disservice To Supporters of Both Candidates

Consequently all of this political chatter and predictions does a disservice to supporters of all candidates.

Your Own Reality Check

On the other hand what if I can show you how to do your own reality check on your smart phone whenever you hear some wild prediction of a ‘landslide’ for either candidate.

That’s what Art-Of-Politics-Polling-Prediction-Bob Davis Podcast 935 is all about.

Still All About Showing Up

In conclusion if we have learned anything over the years, it is politics still belongs to those who show up.

State By State Battleground

Working hard down to the election is always the best approach. National polls are useless as the popular vote does not determine the presidency in the US.

Stay With The Bob Davis Podcasts

To sum up stay with me for a clear eyed view of the state by state polling results so that you’re not shocked and surprised on election night. Anything is possible, but right now it’s still a close race.

(Editor’s Note: As I recorded this podcast new polls were being released and results uploaded. As of the date of this post, the new polls have not changed my conclusion that 2020 will be close based on tight races in battleground states. I’ll do another podcast after the next spate of polls and we’ll see how things change. The good news is, if you listen to this podcast you’ll know how to update yourself when new polls come out.)

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Art-Of-Politics-Polling-Prediction-Bob Davis Podcast 935

Media-Distorts-Poll-Results-Again-Bob Davis Podcast 932

Media Back To Its Old Tricks

Firstly the media is back to its old tricks. They are showing a shocking level of ignorance when it comes to political polls. Learn in Media-Distorts-Poll-Results-Again-Bob Davis Podcast 932.

Predicting The Future. Again.

Secondly we should be suspicious of a media with a penchant for predicting the future.

No Partisan Coverage of Election 2020 Here

More importantly I have avoided partisan criticism of the president. In addition I have refused to engage in the same kind of misinformation when it comes to potential presidential candidates. Now you understand why.

No Partisan Issue Advocacy Here Either

Moreover I refuse to advocate for partisan issues or tell listeners and subscribers what to think.

Political Polling Coverage

Therefore I am starting my political coverage of presidential polling for 2020.

State By State Reports

To clarify from time to time I will do some podcasts discussing recent polling on a state by state basis.

Ignorant Story Lines

Truth is, the story lines being created now may or may not be the eventual result. I’ll explain why in Media-Distorts-Poll-Results-Again-Bob Davis Podcast 932.

All About The Electoral Vote

Even more we choose our presidents through the electoral college. We do not vote directly for the office of president in the United States.This reality forces presidential campaigns to develop electoral strategies.

Divided? Really?

Above all we keep hearing how the United States has become a ‘divided’ country. It’s the Blue States against the Red States.

County By County Vote Totals

But county by county vote totals show the votes are often ‘blue’ or ‘red’ by pluralities, not majorities.

National Presidential Polls Are Useless

Finally citing national popularity polls, presidential job approval polls, or even national political preference is little more than a waste of time.

Another Close Contest, So Far…

In conclusion, the 2020 presidential race at this time looks like another close contest. Unless that reality changes it’s going to come down to some key states.

Still Not A Lot Of Polling Data For Battleground States

Meanwhile polling data is not available for all the so called battleground states.

Fantasy Reporting

In short don’t believe everything you hear.

(Editor’s Note: I refer to both candidates running as ‘presidents’. Obviously I meant President Trump and former Vice President Biden. In addition at the time of recording of this podcast¬† results of the Iowa US Senate Primary had not been released. Due to this, no polls were available on the race. The primary was held on June 2nd, 2020. I said no democrat had yet been selected in the Iowa US Senate Race, which includes Senator Joni Ernst as the republican incumbent. This was true at the time. Now Ernst has a democratic opponent. For the results go here.)

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Media-Distorts-Poll-Results-Again-Bob Davis Podcast 932

 

Trumpers-Think-Political-Polls-Lie-Bob Davis Podcast 862

Republicans Hate Polls…Unless They Show Trump In The Lead

There’s so much bias these days on every media platform there’s no trust. A conversation with a republican friend lead to this podcast about whether polls lie. Find out more by listening to Trumpers-Think-Political-Polls-Lie-Bob Davis Podcast 862.

Who Did The Poll?

First of all when it comes to polling, the first question a republican will ask is, “Who did the poll”. Especially if it reflects poorly on the president. In addition their second favorite response is, “No One Called Me”. Gah!

What Poll Will You Accept?

In contrast I wonder, “What poll would you accept?“.

Polling Explained. Again.

It’s time again to explain polling and the potential for a republican win or loss in 2020.

No bias or predictions. Just the lay of the land.

Accept and Consider Information Challenging Your Position

Above all political true believers reject any poll that doesn’t show their guy winning.¬†Even more, political analysis requires accepting and considering information that challenges you.

Approval Ratings 101

In Trumpers-Think-Political-Polls-Lie-Bob Davis Podcast 862 front and center are approval ratings and their ability to predict winners.

Past Elections

Moreover I’ll look at how you can use polls to make solid judgements. I’ll also talk about the history of past elections as a tool.

Polls Don’t Lie … The Media Lies

Not only do I reject the assertion the polls “lie”. When averaged they can be quite predictive.

Unfortunately the wholesale ignorance of polling in our media is especially relevant. For Example, while the polls in 2016 showed a close race for president, they never predicted a Clinton win.

Trump Struggles In The Battleground States

Finally at issue are tracking polls showing the president’s approval rating in battleground states plummeting. With manufacturing reportedly in recession in Wisconsin and Michigan, republican bosses are concerned. They should be. Trump has to win the battleground states to win a second term.

A Republican Siding With The UAW?

Perhaps it is for that reason that the president is rumored to want to intervene in a current GM strike, in favor of the UAW.

History And No Judgements

Therefore this podcast is valuable because it looks at chances for both a landslide as well as a tough race, without judgements and predictions. There’s a lot of information here about past presidential races, the history of polling and approval ratings. It might come in handy.

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Trumpers-Think-Political-Polls-Lie-Bob Davis Podcast 862