Toss Up House Elections 2018-Part 1-Bob Davis Podcast 753

Every two years the entire US House of Representatives has to run for election. The predictions of the prognosticators concerning these elections are most noteworthy. The sages say as many as 58 republican seats are in jeopardy. We’ll find out in a series of podcasts that examine each of these house races in detail. Toss Up House Elections 2018-Part 1-Bob Davis Podcast 753.

Predictions Are Dangerous

I hate predictions, Moreover I find while the media loves to ‘nationalize’ house and senate elections most of the time they turn on local issues not the national issues. One of the reasons predictions are often be wrong.

Especially relevant, so many of these races are considered toss ups.

Calibrating The Crystal Ball

There’s only way to determine whether men staring into crystal balls can predict the future. You have to examine each district one at a time.

In part one we look at several districts in California, Colorado, and Florida. More are on the way.

Travel Makes Great Political Analysis

I am happy to say I have been to many of these districts in Mobile Podcast Command. ‘Just passing through’ doesn’t give you some gift for the truth but it does help to visualize. Because I travel I have additional knowledge that is invaluable when it comes to understanding what’s going on in some of these elections.

Pivot Counties Are Well…Pivotal

Similarly it helps to have visited to some of the so called ‘Pivot Counties‘ and to have traveled through areas these guys on TV probably have not seen recently, if ever. It all adds up to the realization that all politics really is local.

New Political Environment?

Because I traveled in 2016 I was able to to realize early on something different was brewing. I think we’re still in a new political environment. All the more reason not to avoid the tarot card readers on TV. Listen to Toss Up House Elections 2018-Part 1-Bob Davis Podcast 753 instead.

No Predictions Just Information And a Baseline For You

While I won’t predict anything in 2018 I think it is fair to say we’re in a new environment politically in which almost anything can happen. Moreover whatever is happening may not show up in polls and primary election data.

Isn’t that what makes watching the outcome so much fun?

Sponsored by Reliafund Payment Processors and The Water Butler Water Purification Systems

Toss Up House Elections 2018-Part 1-Bob Davis Podcast 753

2018 House Toss Up Races-Story Lines-Predictions-Part 1-Podcast 716

Will republicans maintain control of the US House Of Representatives in 2018’s Mid Term election? Or are those predicting a Democratic Wave right? Find out in 2018 House Toss Up Races-Story Lines-Predictions-Part 1-Podcast 716. For part one click here.

Media Creates Confusion

These days the media is obsessed with predicting the future. Moreover they’re so busy telling the future viewers are left confused about where the close races are and why they are considered close.

West Coast To The Mississippi

In two epic political podcasts, I lay out the battle ground for the most vulnerable house races in 2018. Part 1 covers the west coast to the Mississippi. Part 2 (Podcast 717) covers districts east of the Mississippi to the Atlantic. Political Junkies these two are for you. If you want the same thing on the US Senate Toss Up Races, check out Podcast 712.

Skipping The Story Line

In 2018 House Toss Up Races-Story Lines-Predictions-Part 1-Podcast 716 it is most noteworthy that I don’t buy into a story line. On one side it’s a blue wave. On the other all is well. It is far from clear what the result of this election will be. That doesn’t stop the shills bought and paid for from telling you what’s going to happen before you’ve even had a chance to consider it.

Primaries Play A Role

Election Day is Tuesday November 6th, 2018. Many districts have primaries in May, June and August. The results of these primaries will determine the tactical situation in key districts. A sober look at these races goes a long way to clarifying the situation for listeners and viewers.

An Ocean Of Time

Moreover, there’s an ocean of time between May 2018 and Election Day. Will local or national and international events have the most impact in the tight races? How many seats are republicans defending? What about local personalities? Most of the time, all the information isn’t in one place where it can serve as a baseline for future discussions.

No One Can Consistently Predict Elections

Bottom line? No one can predict elections. We learned that in 2016. What’s more, House elections are even more difficult to predict. 435 members up for election. The Democrats have 193 seats, the republicans 237. Both parties 200 or so seats solidly democrat or republican. That leaves about 30 races which can be considered toss ups. This is where we focus.

Devil’s In The Details

As the old saying goes, the Devil’s In The Details. Did Trump beat Clinton in your district? How did your congressman do? What are the local issues? If it’s an open seat is your district Republican, Democrat or somewhere in between? From California’s 10th to New Hampshire’s 1st, From Oregon to Georgia.

Sponsored by Ryan Plumbing and Heating of Saint Paul and Sal Di Leo Inspirational Speaker

2018 House Toss Up Races-Story Lines-Predictions-Part 1-Podcast 716

 

 

 

Truth About 2018 US Senate Predictions-Fairy Tales-Podcast 712

They are at it again. Pundits and talking heads are telling us who’s going to win the 2018 mid term elections. What is the truth about 2018? Find out in Truth About 2018 US Senate Predictions-Fairy Tales-Podcast 712.

Election Day Tuesday November 6th 2018

Tuesday, November 6th, 2018 is a big day. Up for election is the entire US House of Representatives and one third of the US Senate. Governors and state legislators are also up for election on this day.

It Comes Down To Key Races For Republicans and Democrats

This podcast focuses on the US Senate race in 2018. Specifically on several key races that may decide the majority. This is critical for President Trump’s agenda from 2019 and his reelection effort in 2020. Learn the basic contours of these races in Truth About 2018 US Senate Predictions-Fairy Tales-Podcast 712.

The Media IS Doing It Again

Problem is the media has already decided the outcome of this election. It will be democrat wave, they say. The reason? Big national issues favor the democrats. Gun Control. The Me Too movement. Immigration. Trade Protection. Is this true?

These days it seems like when the media says something is going to go one way, it often goes another. I will not tell you what’s going to happen. The Bob Davis Podcasts isn’t in the business of predicting the future, telling people what to think or who to vote for. As in 2016, I’ll try to stick to the facts we know about these races and let you decide what to think about them.

Battleground Senate Races

This podcast focuses on US Senate races in key states considered ‘battlegrounds’. Truth is, republicans are defending fewer vulnerable seats than democratic candidates. Whether than means the GOP will hold onto their majority in the US Senate is quite another question.

All Politics Is Local – Especially Statewide Senate Races

Moreover, Senate races may be effected by national issues, but they are statewide races. Personality and local issues are major factors in such elections. I spend a little time in this podcast outlining examples of regional and geographic political differences. Check it out in Truth About 2018 US Senate Predictions-Fairy Tales-Podcast 712.

Time for Truth about 2018 US Senate Predictions in Podcast 712

In conclusion, despite what the pundits and so called experts tell you, national issues that seem to benefit republicans or democrats, don’t always benefit candidates in tight races in their home states.

Sponsored by Reliafund Payment Processors and Ryan Plumbing and Heating Of Saint Paul

Truth About 2018 US Senate Predictions-Fairy Tales-Podcast 712

 

 

 

Government Shut Down Aversion Diversion-Happy Days Here Again-Podcast 695

The shouts. Screams. Lamentations. Analysis on the battle of the century! A government shutdown that lasted half a working day turned into a national hysteria in Government Shut Down Aversion Diversion-Happy Days Here Again-Podcast 695.

Aversion That Turned To Diversion

Especially relevant is the fact that with all the commentary about the pain and suffering from all sides of the so called political divide, adding to the melee would be spitting into the wind. Now that the great shutdown of 2018 is over, we can talk about how silly it was.

Thank God For Football Playoff Games

These days I wonder if there is any better proof of a national delusion than an entire weekend of screaming, shouting and worthless details about the shutdown that wasn’t. Furthermore the details about the numbers of federal employees in each state left penniless and wandering through the streets. In Government Shut Down Aversion Diversion-Happy Days Here Again-Podcast 695.

Surprise! Both Sides Blame Each Other

Democrats sniffed this was the ‘first time in history a party in control of all three branches of government shut it down‘. The week before the House voted to keep the government open on a straight party vote with no democrats on board.

In the Senate, shockingly some democrats voted for the continuing resolution and some republicans against it. Finally while the White House labeled this the ‘Chuck Schumer Shut Down‘ and Senator Schumer called it ‘The Trump Shutdown’, it was pretty much business as usual in Washington DC. Find out why in Government Shut Down Aversion Diversion-Happy Days Here Again-Podcast 695.

Guess What? This Is How Government Actually Works

The stumbling blocks? A house version that allowed so called ‘Dreamers’ to stay in the US, and bring additional family members for one. The Children’s Health Insurance Program for another. In conclusion, there is the issue of additional spending in a continuing resolution rather than a straight up budget bill.

Get Over It…Even JFK Used Foul Language

In the end the president got what he wanted. The immigration legislation will be taken up separately at a later date. What about the shock of a president allegedly using strong language? This podcast has audio of three former presidents using very foul language on issues ranging from military spending to a type of slacks preferred. Listen for it in Government Shut Down Aversion Diversion-Happy Days Here Again-Podcast 695.

Say Goodbye To Rugged Individualism

Finally, this whole episode makes on fact painfully clear. The famous rugged and self sufficient American doesn’t exist. The businessman and farmer are just as dependent on those checks from the government as any welfare queen. Threaten to turn it off and we’re thrown into fits.

Sponsored by Ryan Plumbing and Heating of Saint Paul and Ciro 3D Motorcycle Products and Accessories

Government Shut Down Aversion Diversion-Happy Days Here Again-Podcast 695


 

Podcast 580-Bob Davis Podcasts Radio Show-56

Podcast 580-Bob Davis Podcasts Radio Show-56. Four mini podcast for your weekend. It’s time to move beyond talk about fake news and false narratives. Time to work on becoming better citizens. We have to get beyond reactions to get what is needed to create better political structures for the future. People have very high expectations about a Trump presidency. Whether you fear the future or can’t wait for it, the President-Elect’s cabinet nominations are moderate and establishment republicans. Trump’s ideas are philosophically all over the road. The new republican administration may end up being just as statist as a Hillary Clinton presidency. One example is Trump’s penchant for roads and bridges and airports. Given the establishment congress of republican moderates expecting a reduction in the cost and power of the federal government is too much to ask for. Fake News is still ‘in the news’. There were suggestions from the CIA at the end of last week that the Russians ‘could have’ been responsible for the Wikileaks hack. Still no proof though. That doesn’t stop the media from feeding into the Clinton camp narrative that Russia put Trump in the White House. It’s impossible to say what influenced voters in Ohio, Pennsyvania, North Carolina and Florida where Trump won by tight margins. None of these facts stop demands to ‘do something’ about ‘fake news’. FaceBook is caving and censorship is suddenly now a big topic. There have also been reports that Electors (members of the electoral college for 2016) have received death threats. What happens if Trump doesn’t have a majority of electors? What is the goal of people supporting the effort to influence the Electoral College? Have you driven around the country lately? If you had, you would know the United States does not have an ‘infrastructure’ problem. Building new airports, roads and bridges will not create enough new jobs to influence a 16 trillion dollar economy. Moreover, trade protection, cutting taxes on the middle class, increasing spending and government power including military spending is fraught with problems and probably won’t result in economic growth. Where does the money come from for these shiny objects? It has to be taxed or borrowed, sooner or later. For those who supported Trump because he ‘isn’t Hillary’, there are no guarantees he’ll be materially different from Clinton, when it comes to results. Sponsored by Brush Studio in the West End and Ryan Plumbing and Heating of Saint Paul.[Powerpress]

Podcast 532

What I think of Election 2016. Getting emails and calls from people political analysts would consider ‘low information voters’ asking what I think and who they should vote for. So in this podcast I am going to tell you. First thing? When you consider the low quality of all reporting on election 2016 everyone is pretty much a low information voter. In 2016 the country is facing decisions on major issues in economics, immigration, trade, foreign policy, military, diplomacy, social issues and more. Almost no one fully understands the contours of these issues well enough to discuss them. Instead what we have are tribes of people who are very emotional about these issues. They know the latest meme. They know all about the latest scandal and the latest ‘story’ evolving concerning who said what about who, and the reaction to it, but when they’re asked to discuss any of the key issues of our time with clarity and depth, as they say in the windy city; “fergitaboutit”. Who do I think should be president in 2017? None of them. Repeat. None of them. If you include the so called independent candidates and the mainline party candidates they’re nothing but placeholders. Someone needs to lay out what the potential outcome of this election will be, regardless of who wins the office. I start – repeat start – to do that in this podcast. I realized about twenty minutes in, this is going to take more than one ‘talk’ podcast (with no editing) to lay out all the possibilities and outcomes. Bottom line? None of the potential outcomes bode well for the future of the United States. We’ve had a series of placeholder presidents, and it looks like we’re about to have another. Meanwhile, the country is getting closer and closer to what I call a ‘clarifying’ event that will wake people up from their media induced hypnosis, and reinvigorate the political process. Maybe. Maybe not. Meanwhile, if you expect to get information from television and radio, and from the standard websites these days, I feel sorry for you. If you guess you’ll find “the truth” on You Tube’s conspiracy channels, and the Drudge Report, guess again. In What I Think of Election 2016 you’ll get my read at the present time, which sets up future podcasts specifically on the issues in the hope of giving listeners to the Bob Davis Podcasts a little more substance and depth than you’ll find anywhere else. Meanwhile, it’s on to the motorcycle rally at Sturgis from here. Sponsored by Hydrus Performance and Brush Studio in the West End, Saint Louis Park.

Podcast 431 – Jason Lewis Interview Pt 1

Jason Lewis Interview Part 1. The Bob Davis Podcasts Mobile Command Unit 8 travelled to Lakeville, Minnesota for a live podcast with Second District Republican Congressional Candidate Jason Lewis, and State Senator Dave Thompson. A few of Jason’s early supporters piled into the Mobile Unit for this podcast at the Main Street Cafe in Lakeville, on Halloween 2015. In part 1, we cover Jason’s position on whether to honor the republican endorsement, the political makeup of the 2nd district, funding education, the role of the federal government, transportation, and immigration, to name just a few of the issues. Senator Dave Thompson adds his own thoughts on the US Constitution, state issues like funding the Vikings stadium, education, transportation. Both Jason and Dave talk about spending and taxation, the economy and the future. Lewis is running against at least three other republican candidates for the 2nd District GOP endorsement, to determine which republican defends the 2nd district’s seat against democrat challengers in 2016. Part of the conversation about opponents involves raising money; Where does a candidate get it, and how beholden he or she is to contributors. As a former radio talk show host, Jason Lewis is quick witted and is known for in depth answers to questions, which is unusual in politics these days. Lewis says he has no illusions about his experience in radio, and the name recognition that comes with it, and tells the Bob Davis Podcasts he intends to campaign hard for delegates and votes. Get in on the ground floor of a congressional campaign, live from the Mobile Podcast Command Unit, with the diesel running. Sponsored by Ryan Plumbing and Heating of Saint Paul

Podcast 427 – Michele Bachmann

Michele Bachmann. The Bob Davis Podcasts caught up with former Congressman Michele Bachmann at the Citizens Council For Health Freedom annual dinner. Bachmann proves she is still a firehose and a firebrand when it comes to talk about politics. The CCHF is interested in repealing Obamacare, so this is where we start. Does the former congressman really think this congress, or the next, is going to actually repeal the ACA? How would that vote be taken? Sharing some of her experience from the presidential campaign trail in 2012, she talks about Jeb Bush and Donald Trump, and responds to a question about Trump’s seeming support of not repealing the ACA, saying Trump is willing to change his mind. She goes on to blast current republican leadership in the House of Representatives, and especially Minnesota Republican Leadership for not taking the fight to the left. She also takes on what she feels are the big issues in the 2016 race, starting with illegal immigration, and her analysis of what the republican base wants. Bachmann says Minnesota Republicans are risk averse, afraid to take on the democrats and the left, on the issues. In comments sure to ruffle some careful republican feathers, Bachmann says Minnesota’s Republicans at the state and federal level ‘don’t want editorial boards mad at them’. Bachmann says the Democrats are pushing hard left to their base, while the right is doing the opposite; pushing more to the center and ‘kicking its base in the shins’. Current Republican leadership in Minnesota really isn’t going to like her critique and explanation of why she thinks they are doing a bad job, but the base will celebrate what she says. Bachmann agrees with many of her former constituents who lament the loss of what she calls conservative leadership in Minnesota and reminds people on the sidelines in the Republican camp that one person can make a difference, providing a detailed history of how she got involved in politics in Minnesota in the first place, and then on to Congress and a presidential campaign. The former congressman and 2012 presidential candidate travels the country speaking, and proves in this interview she is as capable as ever of shaking things up. Is there another election in her future? Listen and find out. Sponsored by X Government Trucks and Eric and Erum Lucero of Pride of Homes and Luke Team Real Estate. 

Podcast 409 – Sunny Lohmann

Sunny Lohmann. Sunny is back making videos and getting trolled. As always she is uncompromising and thought provoking, from the Blood Moon, to the Trump candidacy, to free speech, racism and the Paleo Diet. Back for a weekend chat on the heels of two new You Tube videos which generated surprising controversy and response. First up is her satire of the Trump candidacy, followed up by a discussion of reaction to another video lampooning the Hollywood videos complaining about the lack of make up choices for people of color. These days it seems like it doesn’t matter what side your on, the trolls come from all sides. If someone doesn’t like what you say, they want to destroy you. It doesn’t matter that every liberal democracy in history has guaranteed free speech, with the US going so far as to actually amend its constitution to guarantee said speech (it is, of course the first amendment). The cyber equivalent of street thugs are out there, ready to pounce if you say anything that might offend their sensitive psyche. Then there’s the question of racism; Sunny suggests that some black activists are racists themselves, or at least that’s the impression she was left with from comments on her videos recently. In the end its pretty clear people aren’t very interested in working together in this country to solve any problems. Has diversity and political correctness destroyed free speech? Everyone seems to want to start their own activist group, attack the Facebook posts of someone they don’t agree with, or protest somewhere. Against something. Hence, Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders, or any other candidate that ‘tells it like it is’, which is really just screaming, “I’m mad as hell and I’m not gonna take it anymore”. Now, if everyone says they’re mad as hell and they’re not gonna take it anymore, but no one really knows what they’re mad about, or they’re all mad about different things … well you can see what kind of problem that presents to actual governing. Sponsored by X Government Cars and Pride Of Homes

Podcast 403 – Jason Lewis Part 1

Jason Lewis Part 1. Another visit with national radio host and Galt IO creator Jason Lewis, this time aboard the Mobile Podcast Command Unit 8. On a day when the US Markets were down over three hundred points, getting reconnected on The Bob Davis Podcasts after more than a year produces a wide ranging discussion between two ‘former’ talk radio pros that ended up going much longer than either planned. So, instead of one podcast, it will be two podcasts. Each installment is thirty minutes of solid discussion about The Economy, Immigration, the Federal Reserve, the 2016 presidential primary ‘campaigns’, the media, and much, much more. This is the kind of content you don’t hear much these days in the talk radio world, and certainly not on the mainstream media; The kind of content only digital media delivers. On a personal note, its interesting to me how much we have evolved over the years since working together at KSTP-AM in the two thousands, and at Clear Channel in Minneapolis in this decade, and yet how little some talk hosts have changed over the years. Jason in particular, has evolved what he likes to call a ‘Pacifist’ approach to foreign policy, passionately making the case that you can’t have big government abroad, without big government at home. It’s certainly an argument you won’t hear in the political arena these days from either side. We also talk about Trump’s appeal, political involvement and more. Jason’s audio book ‘Power Divided Is Power Checked’ is available here, and his podcast is available here. Sponsored by Ryan Plumbing and Heating of Saint Paul. (Editor’s Note: I’m posting this podcast for the weekend on Friday morning, August 21st, and I’ll post Part 2 for your Monday morning. Thanks again to Jason Lewis for joining me on the podcast and for keeping it real.