Dumbest-Question-In-Politics-Bob Davis Podcast 944

Dumbest-Question-In-Politics-Bob Davis Podcast 944

Impossible To Predict The Future

Most importantly it is impossible to predict the future. However the media insists on trying. Learn more in Dumbest-Question-In-Politics-Bob Davis Podcast 944.

Dumbest Question

Certainly the dumbest question in politics provokes the need for me to do a presidential polling roundup every now and then before election day 2020.

Direct Elections

Firstly on that day voters will be directly voting for congressmen, senators and a range of local officials.

Electoral College Chooses Our President

Secondly voters will cast a vote for the president but they won’t be directly voting for the president. That’s the job of the electoral college.

Who Chooses The President?

We hold individual state and territorial elections. Electors chosen in each state actually choose the president. Therefore we have a geographic component to our elections. That’s key.

Battleground!

Due to this unique feature of our presidential elections it comes down to so called ‘battleground’ or ‘swing’ states.

Answering The Dumbest Question In Politics Is Nearly Impossible

Therefore answering the dumbest question in politics is almost impossible. Details in Dumbest-Question-In-Politics-Bob Davis Podcast 944.

What Matters In Election Coverage

In short that is why I do these podcasts detailing the most recent polls from each election’s ‘battleground’ states. Because at the end of the day, these are the states that matter.

Up For Grabs

Even more this month’s round up again shows the 2020 election is up for grabs, not already decided.

Wild Predictions Waste Your Time

Above all the media’s penchant for answering the dumbest question in politics produces wild predictions about the outcomes. Basically if you want your guy to win, you’d better go to work because it’s far from decided.

Current Polls

In conclusion if you want a discussion of what the current polls show without allegiance to a candidate or cause, I am your guy.

Pluralities

That is to say things are still close in key states. To clarify, victories will probably be by pluralities rather than majorities.

No Matter What They Say…It’s Still Impossible To Predict

Finally that makes the election of 2020, if it is held at at all, impossible to predict.

Sponsored by Tim LaCroix Real Estate Law

Dumbest-Question-In-Politics-Bob Davis Podcast 944

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Conventional Wisdom-Election 2018 Follies-Podcast 764

Conventional Wisdom-Election 2018 Follies-Podcast 764

These days it always pays to wait for an outcome before you predict the future. With the confirmation of Brett Cavanaugh to the US Supreme Court we have an outcome. Now comes an avalanche of predictions about the court fight’s impact on the election. Find out why I say ignore the prognosticators in Conventional Wisdom-Election 2018 Follies-Podcast 764.

Bottom line, elections belong to the people who vote. Not tea leaves

Most noteworthy in 2018 are several US Senate Elections. Moreover scores of House elections are very close.

Blue Wave. Wait! Red Wave! No Wait! Blue Wave

What’s the media telling the American people? It’s a ‘blue’ wave fueled by young adults and women angry at the treatment of Christine Ford, nemesis of the former court nominee. Don’t like that story line? Guess what? Republican voters are seething and will go out and vote again democrats in droves. So say the story tellers.

Not Enough Data

In contrast to the nonsense being spewed by now famous political ‘scientists’ no one knows who’s actually going to vote. Polls are scanty and some shoddily conducted. Another factor is the fact that determining who will vote and why is truly an art. In other words, no one knows. It’s about time someone explains it’s hard to say what will happen on November 6th, without picking sides.

Quick! Who’s Your Congressman?

Truth is midterm voter turn out is lower than presidential years. Many people don’t even know who their congressman is. National issues don’t always drive elections. Almost all the House districts that aren’t gerrymandered are close. And somehow one national story is going to drive the results of all these elections? Are they toss ups that can go either way? Are these close races evidence of a blue wave? Find out in Conventional Wisdom-Election 2018 Follies-Podcast 764.

Coverage Of Politics In This Country is Terrible

In conclusion I am driven to do another political podcast I did not want to do. Why? Because most of what passes for political coverage in this country is terrible. Too many predictions. Lots of bias. Mostly telling both sides what they want to hear. Finally someone who tells it like it is and waits for election day to judge the outcome.

Sponsored by Water Butler Water Purification Systems and Johantgen Jewelers

Conventional Wisdom-Election 2018 Follies-Podcast 764

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Toss Up House Elections 2018-Part 3-Minnesota-Podcast 755

Toss Up House Elections 2018-Part 3-Minnesota-Podcast 755

A series of podcasts dedicated to the so called toss up races for the Senate, Governors and House in 2018’s Midterm Election. Most notable in Part 3 are Minnesota’s toss ups. Find out why in Toss Up House Elections 2018-Part 3-Minnesota-Podcast 755.

Dive Deep

These days podcasters can dive deep by doing a series of podcasts on one subject. One of my missions at the Bob Davis Podcasts is to provide the antidote to the prattling and predictions.

So I am diving deep!

What IS a Toss Up?

It’s especially relevant that I am reviewing the data and details about states and districts for this series. One of my takeaways is what political scientists and commentators view as a toss up is entirely up to their judgement.

One man’s toss up is another man’s lean republican, or lean democrat.

Story Lines Are Click Bait and Influence Voters

My issue is these predictions create their own story lines. These ‘predictions’ can influence voters negatively.

This Year’s Story Line

This year the story line is republicans will lose the House and Senate and some Governorships because of the antics of President Donald Trump. Is this true?

Learn more in Toss Up House Elections 2018-Part 3-Minnesota-Podcast 755.

Minnesota Center Stage

In 2018 Minnesotans elect a Governor, two Senators and eight Congressman. There are also contested statewide races like Attorney General and State Auditor. Moreover Senator Tina Smith is running in her first election after Governor Dayton appointed her to the Senate. We have a lot going on in our state.

Finally so called experts say there are four toss up races in Minnesota this year. Two democrat and two traditionally republican House districts.

Find out if I think it is true in Toss Up House Elections 2018-Part 3-Minnesota-Podcast 755.

No Predictions No Partisanship

In conclusion I don’t make predictions or try to make the data ‘lean’ on way or another. I don’t make judgements based on rumors in these districts. I give you the existing data on the district and let you make your own prediction.

Listen To This Series. Know What To Watch For On Election Night

Bottom line, if you listen to this series of podcasts on election night, you’ll know where to look and what races to watch to make an informed prediction about the election’s outcome and what it may or may not mean.

(Editor’s Note: Heads up if you’re using Ballotpedia to check presidential voting stats for individual house districts. One set of data in particular has caused problems for me. A drop down chart purporting to show house election results by HOUSE district is in fact by STATE HOUSE district, In the case of the second district this showed a huge advantage for Trump. It is only in state HOUSE districts, apparently and not overall. A similar chart from the Daily Koz, ON the Daily Koz shows actual house districts and a much closer result. Still a win for Trump in the 2nd in 2016. Despite this update, I still feel the toss up race in 2018 will be in Minnesota’s 3rd district. I did not use this data set for every house race. I don’t think it changes whether a district leans one way or another or is a toss up since I based my analysis on other factors.)

Sponsored by The Water Butler Water Purification Systems and John D Scott Personal Injury Lawyer

Toss Up House Elections 2018-Part 3-Minnesota-Podcast 755

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