Toss Up House Elections 2018-Part 3-Minnesota-Podcast 755

A series of podcasts dedicated to the so called toss up races for the Senate, Governors and House in 2018’s Midterm Election. Most notable in Part 3 are Minnesota’s toss ups. Find out why in Toss Up House Elections 2018-Part 3-Minnesota-Podcast 755.

Dive Deep

These days podcasters can dive deep by doing a series of podcasts on one subject. One of my missions at the Bob Davis Podcasts is to provide the antidote to the prattling and predictions.

So I am diving deep!

What IS a Toss Up?

It’s especially relevant that I am reviewing the data and details about states and districts for this series. One of my takeaways is what political scientists and commentators view as a toss up is entirely up to their judgement.

One man’s toss up is another man’s lean republican, or lean democrat.

Story Lines Are Click Bait and Influence Voters

My issue is these predictions create their own story lines. These ‘predictions’ can influence voters negatively.

This Year’s Story Line

This year the story line is republicans will lose the House and Senate and some Governorships because of the antics of President Donald Trump. Is this true?

Learn more in Toss Up House Elections 2018-Part 3-Minnesota-Podcast 755.

Minnesota Center Stage

In 2018 Minnesotans elect a Governor, two Senators and eight Congressman. There are also contested statewide races like Attorney General and State Auditor. Moreover Senator Tina Smith is running in her first election after Governor Dayton appointed her to the Senate. We have a lot going on in our state.

Finally so called experts say there are four toss up races in Minnesota this year. Two democrat and two traditionally republican House districts.

Find out if I think it is true in Toss Up House Elections 2018-Part 3-Minnesota-Podcast 755.

No Predictions No Partisanship

In conclusion I don’t make predictions or try to make the data ‘lean’ on way or another. I don’t make judgements based on rumors in these districts. I give you the existing data on the district and let you make your own prediction.

Listen To This Series. Know What To Watch For On Election Night

Bottom line, if you listen to this series of podcasts on election night, you’ll know where to look and what races to watch to make an informed prediction about the election’s outcome and what it may or may not mean.

(Editor’s Note: Heads up if you’re using Ballotpedia to check presidential voting stats for individual house districts. One set of data in particular has caused problems for me. A drop down chart purporting to show house election results by HOUSE district is in fact by STATE HOUSE district, In the case of the second district this showed a huge advantage for Trump. It is only in state HOUSE districts, apparently and not overall. A similar chart from the Daily Koz, ON the Daily Koz shows actual house districts and a much closer result. Still a win for Trump in the 2nd in 2016. Despite this update, I still feel the toss up race in 2018 will be in Minnesota’s 3rd district. I did not use this data set for every house race. I don’t think it changes whether a district leans one way or another or is a toss up since I based my analysis on other factors.)

Sponsored by The Water Butler Water Purification Systems and John D Scott Personal Injury Lawyer

Toss Up House Elections 2018-Part 3-Minnesota-Podcast 755

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2018 House Toss Up Races-Story Lines-Predictions-Part 2-Podcast 717

Continuing to run down the toss up races in the 2018 midterm elections for the US House. The big story line? A democrat wave will wrest control of the house from the republicans. In 2018 House Toss Up Races-Story Lines-Predictions-Part 2-Podcast 717.

From The Midwest Across To The Atlantic Coast

Kansas and Nebraska. East of the Mississippi to Iowa. Minnesota which has some of the closest House races in the country. Illinois in the northern suburbs, and the Land of Lincoln’s southern tip. Across to New York, Georgia, New Hampshire and more.

All About Political Junkies

The second of two parts of a mega podcasting effort for political junkies and subscribers who just want someone to objectively run down all the races in one spot. We’ll challenge some of the myths and tell you why some pundits say this year is a game changer. In 2018 House Toss Up Races-Story Lines-Predictions-Part 2-Podcast 717.

These days the biggest problem with the media is its penchant for trying to predict the future. Americans are ill served because of this problem. Expectations become truth. Final outcomes turn out to be much harder to predict. Democrats learned this the hard way in 2016’s presidential race.

Republicans Defending The Most Toss Up Seats

Especially relevant is the fact that as a political agnostic, I’m not afraid to tell you there is almost no polling to speak of, despite all the efforts to predict the outcome of 435 House Races. To be sure, the republicans are defending most of the toss up seats.

Why Democrats Believe This Will Be A Wave

Moreover after spending two days poring over election data and reading about local issues and personalties, I can tell you why democrats believe this will be a ‘wave’ election. Do their hopes have any basis in reality? Well. Listen and find out. In 2018 House Toss Up Races-Story Lines-Predictions-Part 2-Podcast 717.

With the Midterms 7 months away, anything can happen. Moreover primaries in some races will determine the tactical situation in many of the House districts in question. Both parties are furiously trying to raise enough money to compete. Will they be able to commit the resources they’re famous for in the special elections that grabbed all the headlines lately?

All Politics Is Local

That’s the old saying. What are the local issues, personalties and unique characteristics of places we don’t think very much about unless its our home? How many of those out of the way places may have an election that determines the future of our country? Check out 2018 House Toss Up Races-Story Lines-Predictions-Part 2-Podcast 717 and let’s talk. For the same kind of analysis on the US Senate Toss Up races, go here.

Sponsored by Reliafund Payment Processors and Ryan Plumbing and Heating of Saint Paul

2018 House Toss Up Races-Story Lines-Predictions-Part 2-Podcast 717

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Podcast 523-Jason Lewis

Podcast 523-Jason Lewis. Join Mobile Podcast Command Unit 8 in the Pan-O-Prog parade in Lakeville, Minnesota. If you’re running for office, or working for someone running for office, regardless of party affiliation, you’re walking in parades, driving in parades, or handing out literature at parades all over your district, and you’ll be doing so until right around State Fair time in the land of ten thousand lakes. The Panorama of Progress parade in Lakeville dates back to 1967. Lakeville is in the heart of Minnesota’s 2nd Congressional District where a big political fight is brewing. It isn’t a fight between republicans and democrats, but a fight between republicans. Four candidates are vying for the seat being vacated by the retirement of Congressman John Kline. The trouble started before the CD2 Endorsing convention when Kline endorsed Darlene Miller instead of Jason Lewis. Some believe Kline’s problem stems from comments made by Jason Lewis on The Bob Davis Podcasts regarding Iran and US Foreign Policy. I would urge critics to actually listen to what Lewis said by searching ‘Jason Lewis’ in the search window on my website (thebobdavispodcasts.com) rather than using liner notes or taking the so called party line. As it pertains to foreign policy, I have said many times, it’s going to take independent and thoughtful congressmen, senators, presidents, career diplomats, defense and foreign policy experts to develop a new foreign policy for the United States. The old plug-and-play approach to foreign policy, or the best of the 70’s, 80’s and 90’s strategies isn’t going to work in a multi-polar world. Military commitments have to be considered in the light of what the knock-on effects of those interventions might mean, something our government really didn’t do very well when the US invaded Iraq and Afghanistan. Some might argue, this is the root of what ruined the GOP’s chance to succeed George W Bush, or to limit Barack Obama to one term. In the aftermath of the Ron Paul revolution in republican politics, as well as wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, the development of ISIS, the Arab Spring, Syria, emerging economies, China and Russia, we need a new approach to defense and foreign policy. The problem is, as I have said, foreign policy doesn’t come out of a can. In this podcast, we ride in the parade with Jason Lewis supporters, who commandeered Mobile Podcast Command’s PA System (I didn’t care, I wanted to ride in the parade anyway, and this doesn’t constitute an endorsement. Jason is a friend of mine, and I think he’s great, but you go ahead and vote for anyone you want!) so you can hear a campaign in progress, and then we’re joined by Jason to talk about the campaign, the Primary Challenge on August 9th, focusing on trade and the economic challenges for everyday Americans, on a brilliantly sunny afternoon in July, in Lakeville Minnesota. Enjoy riding in a parade in Podcast 523-Jason Lewis. Sponsored by Ryan Plumbing and Heating of Saint Paul and Karow Contracting, Storm Damage Specialists.

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