Toss Up House Elections 2018-Part 3-Minnesota-Podcast 755

A series of podcasts dedicated to the so called toss up races for the Senate, Governors and House in 2018’s Midterm Election. Most notable in Part 3 are Minnesota’s toss ups. Find out why in Toss Up House Elections 2018-Part 3-Minnesota-Podcast 755.

Dive Deep

These days podcasters can dive deep by doing a series of podcasts on one subject. One of my missions at the Bob Davis Podcasts is to provide the antidote to the prattling and predictions.

So I am diving deep!

What IS a Toss Up?

It’s especially relevant that I am reviewing the data and details about states and districts for this series. One of my takeaways is what political scientists and commentators view as a toss up is entirely up to their judgement.

One man’s toss up is another man’s lean republican, or lean democrat.

Story Lines Are Click Bait and Influence Voters

My issue is these predictions create their own story lines. These ‘predictions’ can influence voters negatively.

This Year’s Story Line

This year the story line is republicans will lose the House and Senate and some Governorships because of the antics of President Donald Trump. Is this true?

Learn more in Toss Up House Elections 2018-Part 3-Minnesota-Podcast 755.

Minnesota Center Stage

In 2018 Minnesotans elect a Governor, two Senators and eight Congressman. There are also contested statewide races like Attorney General and State Auditor. Moreover Senator Tina Smith is running in her first election after Governor Dayton appointed her to the Senate. We have a lot going on in our state.

Finally so called experts say there are four toss up races in Minnesota this year. Two democrat and two traditionally republican House districts.

Find out if I think it is true in Toss Up House Elections 2018-Part 3-Minnesota-Podcast 755.

No Predictions No Partisanship

In conclusion I don’t make predictions or try to make the data ‘lean’ on way or another. I don’t make judgements based on rumors in these districts. I give you the existing data on the district and let you make your own prediction.

Listen To This Series. Know What To Watch For On Election Night

Bottom line, if you listen to this series of podcasts on election night, you’ll know where to look and what races to watch to make an informed prediction about the election’s outcome and what it may or may not mean.

(Editor’s Note: Heads up if you’re using Ballotpedia to check presidential voting stats for individual house districts. One set of data in particular has caused problems for me. A drop down chart purporting to show house election results by HOUSE district is in fact by STATE HOUSE district, In the case of the second district this showed a huge advantage for Trump. It is only in state HOUSE districts, apparently and not overall. A similar chart from the Daily Koz, ON the Daily Koz shows actual house districts and a much closer result. Still a win for Trump in the 2nd in 2016. Despite this update, I still feel the toss up race in 2018 will be in Minnesota’s 3rd district. I did not use this data set for every house race. I don’t think it changes whether a district leans one way or another or is a toss up since I based my analysis on other factors.)

Sponsored by The Water Butler Water Purification Systems and John D Scott Personal Injury Lawyer

Toss Up House Elections 2018-Part 3-Minnesota-Podcast 755

Podcast 523-Jason Lewis

Podcast 523-Jason Lewis. Join Mobile Podcast Command Unit 8 in the Pan-O-Prog parade in Lakeville, Minnesota. If you’re running for office, or working for someone running for office, regardless of party affiliation, you’re walking in parades, driving in parades, or handing out literature at parades all over your district, and you’ll be doing so until right around State Fair time in the land of ten thousand lakes. The Panorama of Progress parade in Lakeville dates back to 1967. Lakeville is in the heart of Minnesota’s 2nd Congressional District where a big political fight is brewing. It isn’t a fight between republicans and democrats, but a fight between republicans. Four candidates are vying for the seat being vacated by the retirement of Congressman John Kline. The trouble started before the CD2 Endorsing convention when Kline endorsed Darlene Miller instead of Jason Lewis. Some believe Kline’s problem stems from comments made by Jason Lewis on The Bob Davis Podcasts regarding Iran and US Foreign Policy. I would urge critics to actually listen to what Lewis said by searching ‘Jason Lewis’ in the search window on my website (thebobdavispodcasts.com) rather than using liner notes or taking the so called party line. As it pertains to foreign policy, I have said many times, it’s going to take independent and thoughtful congressmen, senators, presidents, career diplomats, defense and foreign policy experts to develop a new foreign policy for the United States. The old plug-and-play approach to foreign policy, or the best of the 70’s, 80’s and 90’s strategies isn’t going to work in a multi-polar world. Military commitments have to be considered in the light of what the knock-on effects of those interventions might mean, something our government really didn’t do very well when the US invaded Iraq and Afghanistan. Some might argue, this is the root of what ruined the GOP’s chance to succeed George W Bush, or to limit Barack Obama to one term. In the aftermath of the Ron Paul revolution in republican politics, as well as wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, the development of ISIS, the Arab Spring, Syria, emerging economies, China and Russia, we need a new approach to defense and foreign policy. The problem is, as I have said, foreign policy doesn’t come out of a can. In this podcast, we ride in the parade with Jason Lewis supporters, who commandeered Mobile Podcast Command’s PA System (I didn’t care, I wanted to ride in the parade anyway, and this doesn’t constitute an endorsement. Jason is a friend of mine, and I think he’s great, but you go ahead and vote for anyone you want!) so you can hear a campaign in progress, and then we’re joined by Jason to talk about the campaign, the Primary Challenge on August 9th, focusing on trade and the economic challenges for everyday Americans, on a brilliantly sunny afternoon in July, in Lakeville Minnesota. Enjoy riding in a parade in Podcast 523-Jason Lewis. Sponsored by Ryan Plumbing and Heating of Saint Paul and Karow Contracting, Storm Damage Specialists.

Podcast 456

Bad Omen. A special primary election in Minnesota’s 35th Senate District results in 60 percent of the vote for RINO Jim Abeler over the Tea Party and Republican Party endorsed candidate Andy Aplicowski and may be a bad omen for the general election in 2016. The Iowa Precinct Caucuses are on February 1st. Minnesota’s caucuses are on March 1st. With the national media reporting on the Republican Party ‘Civil War’, and the impact of the Tea Party in that ‘civil war’ it looks like the Tea Party is all show, and no go. Tea Party groups can’t seem to get out the vote for ‘principled’ conservatives. Is this a bad omen? Is it possible voters don’t agree with the Tea Party message? Are the Tea Party groups lazy? Or, maybe Tea Party groups are just ignorant of what real political organizing requires. If this happens nationwide in 2016 then the so called ‘grassroots surge’ of ‘principled’ conservatives in the Republican Party, supported by Tea Party chapters all over the country, may be one of the biggest busts, and thus one of the biggest stories of 2016 bad omen, or not. Offering excuses doesn’t cut it. Win, or go home. Sure, the story line of the Tea Party as kingmaker serves the mainstream media’s interests now, but if the Tea Party can’t produce results what the media gives will be taken away, mercilessly. What’s wrong? This might be considered a harsh analysis for some, but when the Tea Party candidate loses by sixty percent of the vote, it’s a criticism that should be heard and a story that’s not being told. Is there something these groups can do to improve their performance? What happens if they keep failing to win? Sponsored by Hydrus, Pride of Home and Luke Team Real Estate.

Podcast 431 – Jason Lewis Interview Pt 1

Jason Lewis Interview Part 1. The Bob Davis Podcasts Mobile Command Unit 8 travelled to Lakeville, Minnesota for a live podcast with Second District Republican Congressional Candidate Jason Lewis, and State Senator Dave Thompson. A few of Jason’s early supporters piled into the Mobile Unit for this podcast at the Main Street Cafe in Lakeville, on Halloween 2015. In part 1, we cover Jason’s position on whether to honor the republican endorsement, the political makeup of the 2nd district, funding education, the role of the federal government, transportation, and immigration, to name just a few of the issues. Senator Dave Thompson adds his own thoughts on the US Constitution, state issues like funding the Vikings stadium, education, transportation. Both Jason and Dave talk about spending and taxation, the economy and the future. Lewis is running against at least three other republican candidates for the 2nd District GOP endorsement, to determine which republican defends the 2nd district’s seat against democrat challengers in 2016. Part of the conversation about opponents involves raising money; Where does a candidate get it, and how beholden he or she is to contributors. As a former radio talk show host, Jason Lewis is quick witted and is known for in depth answers to questions, which is unusual in politics these days. Lewis says he has no illusions about his experience in radio, and the name recognition that comes with it, and tells the Bob Davis Podcasts he intends to campaign hard for delegates and votes. Get in on the ground floor of a congressional campaign, live from the Mobile Podcast Command Unit, with the diesel running. Sponsored by Ryan Plumbing and Heating of Saint Paul

Podcast 297

Tea Party as Third Party? Word is some people in the Tea Party think it should become a Third Political Party. What’s involved in creating a so called Third Party, how successful have they been, how successful might an actual ‘Tea Party’ be? Some tea party groups have been criticized lately for making a lot of noise, but not controlling much money, or votes; Things that matter to politicians. It has been suggested what is needed is political organization at the grass roots: Podcast 287. Some people think that means starting a so called Third Party, or constituting the Tea Party as a Third Political Party. Judging from history, if Tea Party groups aren’t able to organize their neighborhoods and precincts, what’s necessary to build a viable third political party, is beyond them. There are many so called ‘third parties’. The largest among them is the Libertarian Party which is present in about 45 states and the District of Columbia, the Green Party is present in 37 states and the District, and the Constitution Party is present in 37 states. There are many other so called ‘Third Parties’. So far, they have not been able to elect representatives or senators, although there has been some success here and there in local races. Most recently in US History, Ross Perot created the Reform Party to support his independent presidential candidacy in 1992 and 1996, garnering something like 18 percent of the vote in 1992, and no electoral votes. In essence, third parties don’t have a very good track record. So, is this the right way to organize votes and have influence in Saint Paul or Washington. It might be fair to suggest that this is yet another effort at denying what needs to be done in order to gain so called ‘street cred’ with Saint Paul and Washington Politicians; Generate a lot of money and votes and scare the daylights out of them. Making a lot of noise, so far, hasn’t seemed to accomplish this. (Editor’s Note: I spoke with a couple of Tea Party leaders this week, and they don’t seem too thrilled with this idea.) Back to work! (Join Bob Davis at the SD61 Chili Dinner January 25th to talk this out, and eat chili.) Sponsored by Ryan Plumbing and Heating of Saint Paul. 

Podcast 287

Tom Emmer’s Vote. A vote by a freshman congressman from Minnesota’s 6th district has provoked a Tea Party Tantrum. Congressman Emmer voted for Speaker Boehner. One Tea Party group has lashed out in anger and frustration, expecting Congressman Emmer to have voted with 25 ‘insurgent’ members that nominated Texas 1st District Congressman Louie Gohmert for the Speakership. Rumors have the North Metro Tea Party petitioning Minnesota State Republican Party chair Keith Downey to give Tom a talking to. Downey was unable to win any statewide offices while Emmer managed a fifty-six percent margin in the 6th, so with all due respect to the party chair, why should Emmer listen to him? Moreover, representative Downey is hardly a Tea Party Republican. And what about the votes of other Minnesota Republican Congressmen. Where’s the outrage about them? Many people expressed their disappointment with Emmer’s vote on FaceBook. Unfortunately, much of the criticism seemed devoid of reason. People couldn’t seem to come up with a name to replace Speaker Boehner, even though Louie Gohmert was the candidate. One correspondent actually suggested talk show host Mark Levin, who is of course not a congressman and therefore ineligible. Others seemed confused as to the role of the Speaker. Still others seemed shocked that sending out links to Freedom Works and calling their congressman didn’t suddenly produce the desired result. What are the principles of a conservative? No one knows, or can’t articulate any cogent reply to the question. The missing link between outrage and actual political power is organization. All through election season, candidates trooped around to Tea Party meetings, where they were dutifully received. Tea Partiers sat there and ate their hamburgers and listened to political pablum, thinking it was enough that they were there. Despite a huge victory for Republicans in the US House this year, the best this group can muster is 25 votes against the Speaker? Despite the fact that Tea Party meetings are supposed to be informational, many of them have become little more than cults of personality. Why? Bluntly speaking? There’s little real political work being done amidst all the hot air. Sponsored by Mycompletebasement.com and by Depotstar. (Editor’s Note: Correction: The US Constitution does not require the Speaker of The House to actually be a member of the house, although the speaker always has been a member. Obviously a non member would still have to be elected by members. Thanks to Dean via Twitter for the info.)

Podcast 160

An unexpected loss for Republican Eric Cantor, and a rapidly deteriorating situation in Iraq form the backdrop to this Friday’s updates on the top stories. Everyone at the US Capitol is talking about Eric Cantor’s loss in Virginia’s 7th Congressional District. The upset has republicans and democrats on edge. What does it mean for the 2014 election cycle. Since Friday, June 13th is the day for the 2nd District Reagan Day Dinner, what could President Obama learn from Reagan?  Could Obama lose the senate for democrats in 2014? Does the rapidly deteriorating situation in Iraq mean the President’s foreign policy is unraveling? Sponsored by Baklund R & D

 

Morning In America

“We thought it wouldn’t be, couldn’t be, fixed. Then came Reagan, with a sunny disposition and a belief he knew what was wrong and how to fix it. He knew it because he had lived and breathed it night after night on factory floors, read it on long train and plane trips, and spoke it famously in his Goldwater nomination speech in 1964. Later he would fight for these ideas in two presidential campaigns before he won in 1980.” Read more in my post about emceeing the Reagan Day Dinner, on June 13th 2014, in Minnesota’s 2nd District.

Podcast 153

Weekend Update! Revised economic numbers for the 1st quarter do not look good at all. -1 percent economic growth as the US economy goes into contraction for the first time since 2011. Don’t worry though, it’s all because of the cold winter and the economy will bounce back in the 2nd quarter. Really? Or, is it possible the economic policies enacted by a democrat president and congress has led to low, slow, or no growth or even – gasp – recession. How could the smartest man in the world let that happen? The Star Tribune reports that the top democrats in the state are calling for VA Secretary Shinseki’s resignation. The paper waits until the last line to mention that the 2nd District’s Republican Congressman John Kline, and the 6th District’s Michele Bachmann ALSO have called for the secretary to resign. Obama is still ‘investigating’. Google will build its own driverless car, which has no steering wheel or brake. What is the difference between a June Bug and a Cicada? And finally, people who used to be starving are getting fat and the WHO thinks this is a bad thing, and there’s a run on egg whites. You won’t believe why. Sponsored by X Government Cars