Toss Up House Elections 2018-Part 3-Minnesota-Podcast 755

A series of podcasts dedicated to the so called toss up races for the Senate, Governors and House in 2018’s Midterm Election. Most notable in Part 3 are Minnesota’s toss ups. Find out why in Toss Up House Elections 2018-Part 3-Minnesota-Podcast 755.

Dive Deep

These days podcasters can dive deep by doing a series of podcasts on one subject. One of my missions at the Bob Davis Podcasts is to provide the antidote to the prattling and predictions.

So I am diving deep!

What IS a Toss Up?

It’s especially relevant that I am reviewing the data and details about states and districts for this series. One of my takeaways is what political scientists and commentators view as a toss up is entirely up to their judgement.

One man’s toss up is another man’s lean republican, or lean democrat.

Story Lines Are Click Bait and Influence Voters

My issue is these predictions create their own story lines. These ‘predictions’ can influence voters negatively.

This Year’s Story Line

This year the story line is republicans will lose the House and Senate and some Governorships because of the antics of President Donald Trump. Is this true?

Learn more in Toss Up House Elections 2018-Part 3-Minnesota-Podcast 755.

Minnesota Center Stage

In 2018 Minnesotans elect a Governor, two Senators and eight Congressman. There are also contested statewide races like Attorney General and State Auditor. Moreover Senator Tina Smith is running in her first election after Governor Dayton appointed her to the Senate. We have a lot going on in our state.

Finally so called experts say there are four toss up races in Minnesota this year. Two democrat and two traditionally republican House districts.

Find out if I think it is true in Toss Up House Elections 2018-Part 3-Minnesota-Podcast 755.

No Predictions No Partisanship

In conclusion I don’t make predictions or try to make the data ‘lean’ on way or another. I don’t make judgements based on rumors in these districts. I give you the existing data on the district and let you make your own prediction.

Listen To This Series. Know What To Watch For On Election Night

Bottom line, if you listen to this series of podcasts on election night, you’ll know where to look and what races to watch to make an informed prediction about the election’s outcome and what it may or may not mean.

(Editor’s Note: Heads up if you’re using Ballotpedia to check presidential voting stats for individual house districts. One set of data in particular has caused problems for me. A drop down chart purporting to show house election results by HOUSE district is in fact by STATE HOUSE district, In the case of the second district this showed a huge advantage for Trump. It is only in state HOUSE districts, apparently and not overall. A similar chart from the Daily Koz, ON the Daily Koz shows actual house districts and a much closer result. Still a win for Trump in the 2nd in 2016. Despite this update, I still feel the toss up race in 2018 will be in Minnesota’s 3rd district. I did not use this data set for every house race. I don’t think it changes whether a district leans one way or another or is a toss up since I based my analysis on other factors.)

Sponsored by The Water Butler Water Purification Systems and John D Scott Personal Injury Lawyer

Toss Up House Elections 2018-Part 3-Minnesota-Podcast 755

Grassroots Tries Again-MNGOP Convention 2018-Duluth-Coverage-Perspective-Podcast 728

These days there’s lots of talk about the ‘Grassroots‘. Most of all, when republicans and democrats hold their conventions on the same weekend. Live coverage from the MNGOP confab in Duluth in Grassroots Tries Again-MNGOP Convention 2018-Duluth-Coverage-Perspective-Podcast 728.

Grassroots On The Line

Furthermore the grassroots are on the line in both parties. There was so much concern about making sure the MNGOP convention ended with an endorsement that leaders pulled strings to make sure Jeff Johnson got a full throated endorsement. Delegates were never told the results of the third ballot. In Rochester, Clinton Democrats battled Our Revolution activists to the bitter end. Both parties claim to be united.

Primary Challenge

Especially relevant is former Republican Governor Tim Pawlenty’s looming primary challenge. Four statewide races and a primary are tall organizational and monetary challenges. Probably have to cash and boots on the ground for that kind of challenge. I think the main question to emerge from this convention is whether the republican grassroots is ready to run and volunteer in these tough statewide races. Go inside the convention in Grassroots Tries Again-MNGOP Convention 2018-Duluth-Coverage-Perspective-Podcast 728.

Activists Just Wanted To Go Home

For all the spit and vinegar among activists, no one wanted ballot after ballot of voting to endorse a gubernatorial candidate. The solution was for two other candidates to drop out. Therefore Phillip Parrish and Mary Giuliani Stephens obliged. Republican ‘activists’ seemed thankful to nominate Jeff Johnson by acclamation. Two minutes later, as delegates headed for the doors, debate on resolutions was tabled. In Grassroots Tries Again-MNGOP Convention 2018-Duluth-Coverage-Perspective-Podcast 728.

Jesus and Trump

Most noteworthy at this convention were the speeches. Candidates and speakers pounded religious and pro Trump themes again and again. As a result there weren’t many details on the economy, budgeting or foreign policy. Hence lots of empty vows to ‘change things’. Not much meat on those bones. I guess that’s politics.

Grassroots Swan Song?

In conclusion leadership was most concerned about ending the convention without an endorsement for governor. Consequently leaders allowed the grassroots to save face. This is why challengers dropped out and the the endorsement vote was by acclamation. Once delegates had chosen a candidate for governor they didn’t feel like hanging around and debating resolutions. So much for the passion of the republican grassroots.

Both mainline parties want to do away with caucuses and move to a primary system. Activism requires action, not just passion.

In the end a vote for Jeff Johnson was the quickest way home.

So much for passion.

(Editor’s Note: I refer to Phillip Parrish as ‘Andy Parrish’ in this podcast. My sincere apologies to Phillip and his campaign.)

Sponsored by Reliafund Payment Processors and Water Butler Water Purification Systems

Grassroots Tries Again-MNGOP Convention 2018-Duluth-Coverage-Perspective-Podcast 728

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Minnesota Road Trip-Progressives-History-Politics-Duluth 2018-Podcast 727

These days one of the things you learn on a road trip is how big the United States is. Then, how big individual states are. Finally the traveler discovers how each state is different. In Minnesota Road Trip-Progressives-History-Politics-Duluth 2018-Podcast 727.

Get Off The Interstate

Most noteworthy is what happens when you get off the Interstate and onto the back roads. That’s when you really see how it is.

Covering Politics In 2018

2018 is an election year. I said I would cover the Minnesota political scene this year. The first stop is the Minnesota State Republican Convention. Duluth. On the shores of Lake Superior.

Minnesota History

Furthermore some of the state’s old hands don’t know Minnesota’s unique social and political history. We’ll discover it together in Minnesota Road Trip-Progressives-History-Politics-Duluth 2018-Podcast 727.

Town Hall Is In Our Blood

Sure, we know our pioneer history. Especially relevant is the unique history of political grass roots and town hall style representation.

Minnesota’s first settlers were New Englanders and New Yorkers. They brought town halls with them. Later immigrants from Scandinavia, Germany and Ireland formed the bedrock of so called ‘progressive‘ politics in the state. Therefore, those ideas are still with us.

Yes Republicans Were Progressives and Populists Too

In addition while some people assume progressive politics these days is only the political left, republicans too have a long history of progressivism. Find out in Minnesota Road Trip-Progressives-History-Politics-Duluth 2018-Podcast 727.

Tim Pawlenty Tries To Derail Caucus Process

Will the grassroots system survive in Minnesota? Former republican Governor Tim Pawlenty isn’t attending because he’ll be clinking crystal with rich guys at the Minneapolis Club. Pawlenty’s operatives will push the convention to refuse to endorse a candidate for governor. This is the main issue in Duluth this weekend.

Do We Really Want To Dump The Town Hall?

Moreover populists and progressives go back to the roots of Minnesota Republicans and democrats. Probably a big part of that process has been town hall style politics in the caucus system. Most of all do we really want to get rid of it?

Surprises In This Podcast

In conclusion as I researched this podcast I learned a few surprising facts. I think you will too.

(EDITOR’S NOTE: Two things. First, it’s not 35W heading to Duluth, it’s just 35 North. Being a Twin Citiean, I have to get on 35W before 35 North. Second, for some reason I thought the State DFL convention – the democrats – was being held in Rochester, Minnesota the week after the Republican Convention in Duluth. Once again those sneaky democrats have managed to slip out of my grasp. It’s in the 40’s in Duluth and the 80’s in Rochester. Given the quality of the speeches in Duluth this weekend, I wish I had gone to Rochester!)

Sponsored by Ryan Plumbing and Heating of Saint Paul

Minnesota Road Trip-Progressives-History-Politics-Duluth 2018-Podcast 727

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2018 House Toss Up Races-Story Lines-Predictions-Part 2-Podcast 717

Continuing to run down the toss up races in the 2018 midterm elections for the US House. The big story line? A democrat wave will wrest control of the house from the republicans. In 2018 House Toss Up Races-Story Lines-Predictions-Part 2-Podcast 717.

From The Midwest Across To The Atlantic Coast

Kansas and Nebraska. East of the Mississippi to Iowa. Minnesota which has some of the closest House races in the country. Illinois in the northern suburbs, and the Land of Lincoln’s southern tip. Across to New York, Georgia, New Hampshire and more.

All About Political Junkies

The second of two parts of a mega podcasting effort for political junkies and subscribers who just want someone to objectively run down all the races in one spot. We’ll challenge some of the myths and tell you why some pundits say this year is a game changer. In 2018 House Toss Up Races-Story Lines-Predictions-Part 2-Podcast 717.

These days the biggest problem with the media is its penchant for trying to predict the future. Americans are ill served because of this problem. Expectations become truth. Final outcomes turn out to be much harder to predict. Democrats learned this the hard way in 2016’s presidential race.

Republicans Defending The Most Toss Up Seats

Especially relevant is the fact that as a political agnostic, I’m not afraid to tell you there is almost no polling to speak of, despite all the efforts to predict the outcome of 435 House Races. To be sure, the republicans are defending most of the toss up seats.

Why Democrats Believe This Will Be A Wave

Moreover after spending two days poring over election data and reading about local issues and personalties, I can tell you why democrats believe this will be a ‘wave’ election. Do their hopes have any basis in reality? Well. Listen and find out. In 2018 House Toss Up Races-Story Lines-Predictions-Part 2-Podcast 717.

With the Midterms 7 months away, anything can happen. Moreover primaries in some races will determine the tactical situation in many of the House districts in question. Both parties are furiously trying to raise enough money to compete. Will they be able to commit the resources they’re famous for in the special elections that grabbed all the headlines lately?

All Politics Is Local

That’s the old saying. What are the local issues, personalties and unique characteristics of places we don’t think very much about unless its our home? How many of those out of the way places may have an election that determines the future of our country? Check out 2018 House Toss Up Races-Story Lines-Predictions-Part 2-Podcast 717 and let’s talk. For the same kind of analysis on the US Senate Toss Up races, go here.

Sponsored by Reliafund Payment Processors and Ryan Plumbing and Heating of Saint Paul

2018 House Toss Up Races-Story Lines-Predictions-Part 2-Podcast 717

Will 1968 Unrest Shockwaves Echo In 2018-Podcast 670

Every now and then it’s necessary to break it down. Why does a long time political observer and analyst find it more difficult to talk about politics these days? In Will 1968 Unrest Shockwaves Echo In 2018-Podcast 670.

Rhetorical Partisans

Some say the US hasn’t been this politically divided since 1968. At least in 1968 we were fighting about specific issues. It seems to me we’re fighting over a person in the present time frame.

Demanding Loyalty

Attack Trump. Defend Trump. At any cost. Ideas and principles aren’t important. Commentators are running for office, under the employ of some partisan organization, or supporting a person or point of view. Will 1968 Unrest Shockwaves Echo In 2018-Podcast 670.

Garbage In Garbage Out

Social media, the Internet and so called news sites spew a constant stream of invective, misinformation and outright lies. They are so busy predicting the future they put Tarot Card Readers and Astrologists to shame.

Read It and Weep

Denying our freedom to choose what we think about an issue based on facts, in the quest to demand loyalty is the height of folly. In Will 1968 Unrest Shockwaves Echo In 2018-Podcast 670. We end up shouting at each other; partisan mobs, not an informed electorate.

Sponsored by Reliafund and Ryan Plumbing and Heating of Saint Paul

Will 1968 Unrest Shockwaves Echo In 2018-Podcast 670

 

Podcast 614-Trump and Republican Colossal Fail On ACA Repeal

In Podcast 614-Trump and Republican Colossal Fail On ACA Repeal, everything comes to an end. True in life. True in politics. Voters sent Republicans and Donald Trump to Washington in 2016. One of if not the most important issues was repealing Obama Care. On Friday, March 24th 2016 the president and the republican party made a colossal mistake and broke a major campaign promise to voters.

A Waterloo. A Donnybrook

An ill-conceived ‘repeal and replace’ bill never made it to the floor of the House for a vote. First the President blamed this donnybrook on the republican Freedom Caucus. Ultimately Trump blamed democrats. Blame anyone or anything. Never yourself. Now the president says he will court democrats. My reaction in Podcast 614-Trump and Republican Colossal Fail On ACA Repeal.

They’re not listening

The republican rank and file suddenly wonders what happened. Fed a steady stream of fairy tales from the right wing media they thought President Trump had one of the most effective and productive first 100 days in history. What happened? A new president who claimed the government should be run like a business was taught a very important lesson. The United States Federal government is most decidedly not a business. Find out why in Podcast 614-Trump and Republican Colossal Fail On ACA Repeal.

Rich Moderate Businessmen Rule

Members of Congress and the Senate have their own ideas about things. Members of Congress and the Senate do not work for the President. The president does not tell members what to do. Rather than lobby effectively, president bluster spent the days leading up to the vote blowing the horn of a semi tractor and bellowing to the press he was a team player. Except when he isn’t.

Is The GOP dying?

This podcaster made three predictions before the election. First, that New York Developer Donald Trump could win the presidency. Second, that an Obama Care repeal would not pass. Third, Trump would destroy the republican party. Two of those predictions have now come true. The third depends on what republican voters do now.

They’re Not Listening

Why don’t they do what we tell them, they cry. The fact is republican congressmen and senators cannot rely on any kind of support structure from the rank and file or grassroots republican rank and file. They don’t do what ‘you’ tell them to do because ‘you’ don’t do anything. A party founded on principle today has no principle and no rudder. What controls the republican party? Rich businessmen who support moderate religious republicans.

Suddenly Trump’s a Democrat?

Whether you’re talking about the US Congress or the ‘republican’ Minnesota legislature, you vote one way, and you get something completely different. Now you have a ‘republican-populist’ president ready to make common cause with the progressive democratic party because he’s miffed at the Freedom Caucus? Principle. There’s that nasty little word again. Let’s talk about it in Podcast 614-Trump and Republican Colossal Fail On ACA Repeal.

It’s A New Day When YOU Say

Find out what you need to do to actually make these politicians do what you want. It’s not pretty. It’s not fun saying it. The failure to repeal the ACA is a political mistake of titanic proportions. It will go down in history along side ‘Read My Lips’ and the Isolationist republicans before World War II. All things must pass. Maybe its time for a new day to dawn.

Time to look to ourselves rather than personalities. In Podcast 614-Trump and Republican Colossal Fail On ACA Repeal.

Sponsored by X Government Cars.

 

 

Podcast 541

Podcast 541. Electoral College Yoga. Get ready to twist your brain into pretzel like shapes as I talk about the electoral college, polls, and what the benchmarks for Election 2016 are so far. I’ll do another benchmark in about a month and one just before the election in late October, or early November. There are a lot of caveats on polling data. While most media people and their viewers seem to want to talk about national presidential preference polls, the proof of the pudding is in the state by state polls. The United States does not elect its presidents with a national vote. In fact, a presidential election is fifty state elections. Voters are selecting a slate of electors, chosen and voting generally according to state law and state party rules. So when you hear one candidate is ‘ahead’ over another in a national poll it really doesn’t mean anything. In 2008 and again in 2012 Republicans in particular were so hopeful based on national preference polls that if you said McCain or Mitt Romney wasn’t going to win, you were ‘raining on the parade’. But, if you looked closely at state polls in those election cycles, the outcome was not a surprise. State polls have their own problems; Smaller sample size, different polling methodologies, and in some states they are no polls until just before the election. While its not advisable to compare different polls of different sources and methodologies, we do it all the time. We’re looking for trends primarily. Currently while Donald J. Trump leads Hillary Clinton in a national presidential preference poll, the state polls tell a completely different story. It’s not a good story for republicans. The case isn’t closed. Trump still has time, but time is fleeting. I don’t support any candidate. I’m not working for any candidate. I’m not going to tell you how to vote. I’m also not going to spin the polling data to make you think something can happen, or is going to happen. If you want the straight talk on what’s going on, the Bob Davis Podcasts is the place to check back for these benchmark state-by-state analyses as we progress to Election Day 2016. Sponsored by Karow Contracting and Ryan Plumbing and Heating of Saint Paul.

Podcast 475

Fight For Your Caucus. Web Designer, Senate District Chair and CD5 Secretary Mitch Rossow joins the podcast to talk about the latest misguided initiative by mainstream republicans in Minnesota. State Representative Steve Garofalo and others want to get rid of the caucuses in Minnesota. Oddly enough, before Super Tuesday, the reason for getting rid of the caucus system was low participation. On Super Tuesday Minnesota experienced a record turnout for its caucuses. So now, apparently, there are too many people caucusing. Isn’t that what we want? Seems like the truth is those in power don’t like the caucus system because it allows for the grass roots to develop new leaders. Critics say the caucuses are too ‘inside’, but aren’t the critics the real insiders? It would be so much easier if the goons in Saint Paul picked party leaders and candidates rather than the citizens. The caucus is one of the few opportunities average citizens have to participate in and influence the political process. Democrats in the state are concerned about this initiative, since the late Senator Paul Wellstone developed the movement that ultimately put him in office through this channel. Mitch Rossow has developed a precinct organization training program, and a training program for caucus conveners. Precinct organizing is the next step after caucuses and its the quickest way for citizens to take back their local representation and eventually state legislature and statewide offices. The enemy of the Republican is the Republican. While Democrats in the state post training videos well before caucuses, and have programs to bring volunteers in to help their caucus attendees understand the process, republicans never got around to doing much of anything to help local precincts with their caucuses. Now they want to do away with it entirely. Moral of the story; the MNGOP talks a lot about democracy and inclusiveness, but doesn’t walk the talk. One wonders what it is that they actually do; Not much of anything. Most of the time the state party is whining and asking the local political units for help. On the DFL side, it’s the reverse. Maybe there a lesson there for the entrenched perfumed princes, hidden behind a security wall at their office in Cedar Riverside. What a joke. With so many new participants this year, maybe a new crop of leaders is being harvested. It can’t happen soon enough. Sponsored by Ryan Plumbing and Heating and X Government Cars.

Podcast 386

Conservative Movement RIP. The last podcast in June before a short Hiatus, also announces News Cleanse 2015. The time is ripe. While travel broadens the horizons and raises the energy of the traveler, it seems staying glued to the television 24/7, hyper vigilance with news websites, social media and those email newsletters in everyone’s in boxes is making people more ignorant, as opposed to more informed. At the end of a week that saw two rulings by the Supreme Court go against the right, it’s clear the ‘last resort’ of the courts is not a solution for a ‘movement’ that is increasingly dependent on those same courts, Fox News and Talk Radio because it is too unorganized and ignorant of tactical politics to influence congress. A court that overreached in 2000, has been very sensitive to public opinion ever since and is loathe to do anything that might upset certain groups which are well organized and ready to march. Meanwhile, on the right, there is always another outrage playing on the twenty four hour cable channels and talk radio. You can be sure at the end of the day the right will do nothing…nothing about any of it. Given this reality, these court decisions are a surprise? Even with an open political system in Minnesota, Congressman Eric Paulsen recently suggested the biggest problem with the right is lack of engagement. That is, people to carry the water. What happens? The same people who have stood up to help year after year are the people representatives see, not to mention the lobbyists, operatives and big money donors. The so called grassroots movements that were ignited with the passing of the ACA have failed to mature, failed to organize, and are fading. Meanwhile millennials are entering the adult world and the political process and they have very different ideas than grandma and grandpa. It seems almost academic to ask whether the conservative movement that started with Murry Rothbard and Barry Goldwater, might have peaked with Reagan; The truth? Its bleached bones are visible in the desert, like the opening shot of a Breaking Bad episode. “Conservatives” these days can’t decide what they are and what they believe, much less build an organization and thus a real movement around some over arching theme, because there isn’t one. What’s left is a republican party that gets 38 to 44 percent of the vote in any given year, versus a democrat party that gets 38 to 44 percent of the vote in any given year, slightly different totals and majorities because of gerrymandering congressional districts, and a big fight held in the media — a circus, really — day after day. No wonder there are twenty or more running for president on the republican side. This doesn’t preclude a republican president, but it does mean a continuing drift toward a country where control of all social and economic interaction is in the hands of the state, whether the head of that state is republican or democrat. And that is exactly what we don’t need. It’s a tough message for people on the right to hear, but it’s the cold, hard truth. Sponsored by Baklund R&D

Podcast 287

Tom Emmer’s Vote. A vote by a freshman congressman from Minnesota’s 6th district has provoked a Tea Party Tantrum. Congressman Emmer voted for Speaker Boehner. One Tea Party group has lashed out in anger and frustration, expecting Congressman Emmer to have voted with 25 ‘insurgent’ members that nominated Texas 1st District Congressman Louie Gohmert for the Speakership. Rumors have the North Metro Tea Party petitioning Minnesota State Republican Party chair Keith Downey to give Tom a talking to. Downey was unable to win any statewide offices while Emmer managed a fifty-six percent margin in the 6th, so with all due respect to the party chair, why should Emmer listen to him? Moreover, representative Downey is hardly a Tea Party Republican. And what about the votes of other Minnesota Republican Congressmen. Where’s the outrage about them? Many people expressed their disappointment with Emmer’s vote on FaceBook. Unfortunately, much of the criticism seemed devoid of reason. People couldn’t seem to come up with a name to replace Speaker Boehner, even though Louie Gohmert was the candidate. One correspondent actually suggested talk show host Mark Levin, who is of course not a congressman and therefore ineligible. Others seemed confused as to the role of the Speaker. Still others seemed shocked that sending out links to Freedom Works and calling their congressman didn’t suddenly produce the desired result. What are the principles of a conservative? No one knows, or can’t articulate any cogent reply to the question. The missing link between outrage and actual political power is organization. All through election season, candidates trooped around to Tea Party meetings, where they were dutifully received. Tea Partiers sat there and ate their hamburgers and listened to political pablum, thinking it was enough that they were there. Despite a huge victory for Republicans in the US House this year, the best this group can muster is 25 votes against the Speaker? Despite the fact that Tea Party meetings are supposed to be informational, many of them have become little more than cults of personality. Why? Bluntly speaking? There’s little real political work being done amidst all the hot air. Sponsored by Mycompletebasement.com and by Depotstar. (Editor’s Note: Correction: The US Constitution does not require the Speaker of The House to actually be a member of the house, although the speaker always has been a member. Obviously a non member would still have to be elected by members. Thanks to Dean via Twitter for the info.)