Toss Up House Elections 2018-Part 3-Minnesota-Podcast 755

Toss Up House Elections 2018-Part 3-Minnesota-Podcast 755

A series of podcasts dedicated to the so called toss up races for the Senate, Governors and House in 2018’s Midterm Election. Most notable in Part 3 are Minnesota’s toss ups. Find out why in Toss Up House Elections 2018-Part 3-Minnesota-Podcast 755.

Dive Deep

These days podcasters can dive deep by doing a series of podcasts on one subject. One of my missions at the Bob Davis Podcasts is to provide the antidote to the prattling and predictions.

So I am diving deep!

What IS a Toss Up?

It’s especially relevant that I am reviewing the data and details about states and districts for this series. One of my takeaways is what political scientists and commentators view as a toss up is entirely up to their judgement.

One man’s toss up is another man’s lean republican, or lean democrat.

Story Lines Are Click Bait and Influence Voters

My issue is these predictions create their own story lines. These ‘predictions’ can influence voters negatively.

This Year’s Story Line

This year the story line is republicans will lose the House and Senate and some Governorships because of the antics of President Donald Trump. Is this true?

Learn more in Toss Up House Elections 2018-Part 3-Minnesota-Podcast 755.

Minnesota Center Stage

In 2018 Minnesotans elect a Governor, two Senators and eight Congressman. There are also contested statewide races like Attorney General and State Auditor. Moreover Senator Tina Smith is running in her first election after Governor Dayton appointed her to the Senate. We have a lot going on in our state.

Finally so called experts say there are four toss up races in Minnesota this year. Two democrat and two traditionally republican House districts.

Find out if I think it is true in Toss Up House Elections 2018-Part 3-Minnesota-Podcast 755.

No Predictions No Partisanship

In conclusion I don’t make predictions or try to make the data ‘lean’ on way or another. I don’t make judgements based on rumors in these districts. I give you the existing data on the district and let you make your own prediction.

Listen To This Series. Know What To Watch For On Election Night

Bottom line, if you listen to this series of podcasts on election night, you’ll know where to look and what races to watch to make an informed prediction about the election’s outcome and what it may or may not mean.

(Editor’s Note: Heads up if you’re using Ballotpedia to check presidential voting stats for individual house districts. One set of data in particular has caused problems for me. A drop down chart purporting to show house election results by HOUSE district is in fact by STATE HOUSE district, In the case of the second district this showed a huge advantage for Trump. It is only in state HOUSE districts, apparently and not overall. A similar chart from the Daily Koz, ON the Daily Koz shows actual house districts and a much closer result. Still a win for Trump in the 2nd in 2016. Despite this update, I still feel the toss up race in 2018 will be in Minnesota’s 3rd district. I did not use this data set for every house race. I don’t think it changes whether a district leans one way or another or is a toss up since I based my analysis on other factors.)

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Toss Up House Elections 2018-Part 3-Minnesota-Podcast 755

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Grassroots Tries Again-MNGOP Convention 2018-Duluth-Coverage-Perspective-Podcast 728

Grassroots Tries Again-MNGOP Convention 2018-Duluth-Coverage-Perspective-Podcast 728

These days there’s lots of talk about the ‘Grassroots‘. Most of all, when republicans and democrats hold their conventions on the same weekend. Live coverage from the MNGOP confab in Duluth in Grassroots Tries Again-MNGOP Convention 2018-Duluth-Coverage-Perspective-Podcast 728.

Grassroots On The Line

Furthermore the grassroots are on the line in both parties. There was so much concern about making sure the MNGOP convention ended with an endorsement that leaders pulled strings to make sure Jeff Johnson got a full throated endorsement. Delegates were never told the results of the third ballot. In Rochester, Clinton Democrats battled Our Revolution activists to the bitter end. Both parties claim to be united.

Primary Challenge

Especially relevant is former Republican Governor Tim Pawlenty’s looming primary challenge. Four statewide races and a primary are tall organizational and monetary challenges. Probably have to cash and boots on the ground for that kind of challenge. I think the main question to emerge from this convention is whether the republican grassroots is ready to run and volunteer in these tough statewide races. Go inside the convention in Grassroots Tries Again-MNGOP Convention 2018-Duluth-Coverage-Perspective-Podcast 728.

Activists Just Wanted To Go Home

For all the spit and vinegar among activists, no one wanted ballot after ballot of voting to endorse a gubernatorial candidate. The solution was for two other candidates to drop out. Therefore Phillip Parrish and Mary Giuliani Stephens obliged. Republican ‘activists’ seemed thankful to nominate Jeff Johnson by acclamation. Two minutes later, as delegates headed for the doors, debate on resolutions was tabled. In Grassroots Tries Again-MNGOP Convention 2018-Duluth-Coverage-Perspective-Podcast 728.

Jesus and Trump

Most noteworthy at this convention were the speeches. Candidates and speakers pounded religious and pro Trump themes again and again. As a result there weren’t many details on the economy, budgeting or foreign policy. Hence lots of empty vows to ‘change things’. Not much meat on those bones. I guess that’s politics.

Grassroots Swan Song?

In conclusion leadership was most concerned about ending the convention without an endorsement for governor. Consequently leaders allowed the grassroots to save face. This is why challengers dropped out and the the endorsement vote was by acclamation. Once delegates had chosen a candidate for governor they didn’t feel like hanging around and debating resolutions. So much for the passion of the republican grassroots.

Both mainline parties want to do away with caucuses and move to a primary system. Activism requires action, not just passion.

In the end a vote for Jeff Johnson was the quickest way home.

So much for passion.

(Editor’s Note: I refer to Phillip Parrish as ‘Andy Parrish’ in this podcast. My sincere apologies to Phillip and his campaign.)

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Grassroots Tries Again-MNGOP Convention 2018-Duluth-Coverage-Perspective-Podcast 728

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Minnesota Road Trip-Progressives-History-Politics-Duluth 2018-Podcast 727

Minnesota Road Trip-Progressives-History-Politics-Duluth 2018-Podcast 727

These days one of the things you learn on a road trip is how big the United States is. Then, how big individual states are. Finally the traveler discovers how each state is different. In Minnesota Road Trip-Progressives-History-Politics-Duluth 2018-Podcast 727.

Get Off The Interstate

Most noteworthy is what happens when you get off the Interstate and onto the back roads. That’s when you really see how it is.

Covering Politics In 2018

2018 is an election year. I said I would cover the Minnesota political scene this year. The first stop is the Minnesota State Republican Convention. Duluth. On the shores of Lake Superior.

Minnesota History

Furthermore some of the state’s old hands don’t know Minnesota’s unique social and political history. We’ll discover it together in Minnesota Road Trip-Progressives-History-Politics-Duluth 2018-Podcast 727.

Town Hall Is In Our Blood

Sure, we know our pioneer history. Especially relevant is the unique history of political grass roots and town hall style representation.

Minnesota’s first settlers were New Englanders and New Yorkers. They brought town halls with them. Later immigrants from Scandinavia, Germany and Ireland formed the bedrock of so called ‘progressive‘ politics in the state. Therefore, those ideas are still with us.

Yes Republicans Were Progressives and Populists Too

In addition while some people assume progressive politics these days is only the political left, republicans too have a long history of progressivism. Find out in Minnesota Road Trip-Progressives-History-Politics-Duluth 2018-Podcast 727.

Tim Pawlenty Tries To Derail Caucus Process

Will the grassroots system survive in Minnesota? Former republican Governor Tim Pawlenty isn’t attending because he’ll be clinking crystal with rich guys at the Minneapolis Club. Pawlenty’s operatives will push the convention to refuse to endorse a candidate for governor. This is the main issue in Duluth this weekend.

Do We Really Want To Dump The Town Hall?

Moreover populists and progressives go back to the roots of Minnesota Republicans and democrats. Probably a big part of that process has been town hall style politics in the caucus system. Most of all do we really want to get rid of it?

Surprises In This Podcast

In conclusion as I researched this podcast I learned a few surprising facts. I think you will too.

(EDITOR’S NOTE: Two things. First, it’s not 35W heading to Duluth, it’s just 35 North. Being a Twin Citiean, I have to get on 35W before 35 North. Second, for some reason I thought the State DFL convention – the democrats – was being held in Rochester, Minnesota the week after the Republican Convention in Duluth. Once again those sneaky democrats have managed to slip out of my grasp. It’s in the 40’s in Duluth and the 80’s in Rochester. Given the quality of the speeches in Duluth this weekend, I wish I had gone to Rochester!)

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Minnesota Road Trip-Progressives-History-Politics-Duluth 2018-Podcast 727

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