Toss Up House Elections 2018-Part 3-Minnesota-Podcast 755

A series of podcasts dedicated to the so called toss up races for the Senate, Governors and House in 2018’s Midterm Election. Most notable in Part 3 are Minnesota’s toss ups. Find out why in Toss Up House Elections 2018-Part 3-Minnesota-Podcast 755.

Dive Deep

These days podcasters can dive deep by doing a series of podcasts on one subject. One of my missions at the Bob Davis Podcasts is to provide the antidote to the prattling and predictions.

So I am diving deep!

What IS a Toss Up?

It’s especially relevant that I am reviewing the data and details about states and districts for this series. One of my takeaways is what political scientists and commentators view as a toss up is entirely up to their judgement.

One man’s toss up is another man’s lean republican, or lean democrat.

Story Lines Are Click Bait and Influence Voters

My issue is these predictions create their own story lines. These ‘predictions’ can influence voters negatively.

This Year’s Story Line

This year the story line is republicans will lose the House and Senate and some Governorships because of the antics of President Donald Trump. Is this true?

Learn more in Toss Up House Elections 2018-Part 3-Minnesota-Podcast 755.

Minnesota Center Stage

In 2018 Minnesotans elect a Governor, two Senators and eight Congressman. There are also contested statewide races like Attorney General and State Auditor. Moreover Senator Tina Smith is running in her first election after Governor Dayton appointed her to the Senate. We have a lot going on in our state.

Finally so called experts say there are four toss up races in Minnesota this year. Two democrat and two traditionally republican House districts.

Find out if I think it is true in Toss Up House Elections 2018-Part 3-Minnesota-Podcast 755.

No Predictions No Partisanship

In conclusion I don’t make predictions or try to make the data ‘lean’ on way or another. I don’t make judgements based on rumors in these districts. I give you the existing data on the district and let you make your own prediction.

Listen To This Series. Know What To Watch For On Election Night

Bottom line, if you listen to this series of podcasts on election night, you’ll know where to look and what races to watch to make an informed prediction about the election’s outcome and what it may or may not mean.

(Editor’s Note: Heads up if you’re using Ballotpedia to check presidential voting stats for individual house districts. One set of data in particular has caused problems for me. A drop down chart purporting to show house election results by HOUSE district is in fact by STATE HOUSE district, In the case of the second district this showed a huge advantage for Trump. It is only in state HOUSE districts, apparently and not overall. A similar chart from the Daily Koz, ON the Daily Koz shows actual house districts and a much closer result. Still a win for Trump in the 2nd in 2016. Despite this update, I still feel the toss up race in 2018 will be in Minnesota’s 3rd district. I did not use this data set for every house race. I don’t think it changes whether a district leans one way or another or is a toss up since I based my analysis on other factors.)

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Toss Up House Elections 2018-Part 3-Minnesota-Podcast 755

Pawlenty Loss Goes National-Tealeaves-Baseless Predictions 2018-Bob Davis Podcast-747

Welcome back to the world of empty predictions from a primary election. These days it seems like the prognosticators can’t resist telling voters what’s going to happen before they vote. Find out why I say this in Pawlenty Loss Goes National-Tealeaves-Baseless Predictions 2018-Bob Davis Podcast-747.

Shining Tim Pawlenty Steps In To Save The Day

Former two-term Governor Tim Pawlenty had it all. A statewide image. National lobbying experience. The backing of the rich guys too. Pawlenty raised 2.3 million dollars, more than all the other candidates.

Goliath Tim Pawlenty Knocked Down By David Jeff Johnson

Pawlenty still lost the primary to the endorsed MNGOP candidate, Hennepin County Commissioner Jeff Johnson. Since DFL Candidate Walz’s is linked in this blog, go here for Jeff Johnson’s official site.

Conventional Wisdom Is Right Until It Isn’t

The national media seized on Pawlenty’s strategic criticism of President Trump as the reason for his loss. Moreover they say this means republican candidates going against Trump will lose. Conventional wisdom says everyone hates Trump. Thus Trumpers may win primaries but lose the general election. Conventional Wisdom is usually right, until it isn’t. Hear it all in Pawlenty Loss Goes National-Tealeaves-Baseless Predictions 2018-Bob Davis Podcast-747.

I have a different view.

Man-Spread Pawlenty and His Rich Guy Political Bullies

I think it’s especially relevant that Pawlenty took a condescending and disrespectful tone in debates with Johnson. He said Johnson will be a three-time loser. “Man Spread” Pawlenty talked tough. He could be governor again if he wanted it. He could win, he said.

Dance with the one who brung ye

Minnesotans don’t like candidates who talk down to voters and their opponents. Especially when it isn’t necessary. Moreover times have changed. Nobody wants yesterday’s governor. Regardless of what happens in the general election, voters don’t appreciate candidates that disrespect the head of their parties.

So Much For The Grassroots On The DFL Side

In contrast DFL endorsed candidate Erin Murphy was defeated by retiring 1st district congressman Tim Walz. So much for the grassroots on the democrat side in Minnesota. Finally Democrat votes outnumbered republican votes in their primary by almost two to one. Consequently all kinds of breathless predictions have been issued about what will happen in November.

Why don’t we wait and see?

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Pawlenty Loss Goes National-Tealeaves-Baseless Predictions 2018-Bob Davis Podcast-747

Grassroots Tries Again-MNGOP Convention 2018-Duluth-Coverage-Perspective-Podcast 728

These days there’s lots of talk about the ‘Grassroots‘. Most of all, when republicans and democrats hold their conventions on the same weekend. Live coverage from the MNGOP confab in Duluth in Grassroots Tries Again-MNGOP Convention 2018-Duluth-Coverage-Perspective-Podcast 728.

Grassroots On The Line

Furthermore the grassroots are on the line in both parties. There was so much concern about making sure the MNGOP convention ended with an endorsement that leaders pulled strings to make sure Jeff Johnson got a full throated endorsement. Delegates were never told the results of the third ballot. In Rochester, Clinton Democrats battled Our Revolution activists to the bitter end. Both parties claim to be united.

Primary Challenge

Especially relevant is former Republican Governor Tim Pawlenty’s looming primary challenge. Four statewide races and a primary are tall organizational and monetary challenges. Probably have to cash and boots on the ground for that kind of challenge. I think the main question to emerge from this convention is whether the republican grassroots is ready to run and volunteer in these tough statewide races. Go inside the convention in Grassroots Tries Again-MNGOP Convention 2018-Duluth-Coverage-Perspective-Podcast 728.

Activists Just Wanted To Go Home

For all the spit and vinegar among activists, no one wanted ballot after ballot of voting to endorse a gubernatorial candidate. The solution was for two other candidates to drop out. Therefore Phillip Parrish and Mary Giuliani Stephens obliged. Republican ‘activists’ seemed thankful to nominate Jeff Johnson by acclamation. Two minutes later, as delegates headed for the doors, debate on resolutions was tabled. In Grassroots Tries Again-MNGOP Convention 2018-Duluth-Coverage-Perspective-Podcast 728.

Jesus and Trump

Most noteworthy at this convention were the speeches. Candidates and speakers pounded religious and pro Trump themes again and again. As a result there weren’t many details on the economy, budgeting or foreign policy. Hence lots of empty vows to ‘change things’. Not much meat on those bones. I guess that’s politics.

Grassroots Swan Song?

In conclusion leadership was most concerned about ending the convention without an endorsement for governor. Consequently leaders allowed the grassroots to save face. This is why challengers dropped out and the the endorsement vote was by acclamation. Once delegates had chosen a candidate for governor they didn’t feel like hanging around and debating resolutions. So much for the passion of the republican grassroots.

Both mainline parties want to do away with caucuses and move to a primary system. Activism requires action, not just passion.

In the end a vote for Jeff Johnson was the quickest way home.

So much for passion.

(Editor’s Note: I refer to Phillip Parrish as ‘Andy Parrish’ in this podcast. My sincere apologies to Phillip and his campaign.)

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Grassroots Tries Again-MNGOP Convention 2018-Duluth-Coverage-Perspective-Podcast 728

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Minnesota Road Trip-Progressives-History-Politics-Duluth 2018-Podcast 727

These days one of the things you learn on a road trip is how big the United States is. Then, how big individual states are. Finally the traveler discovers how each state is different. In Minnesota Road Trip-Progressives-History-Politics-Duluth 2018-Podcast 727.

Get Off The Interstate

Most noteworthy is what happens when you get off the Interstate and onto the back roads. That’s when you really see how it is.

Covering Politics In 2018

2018 is an election year. I said I would cover the Minnesota political scene this year. The first stop is the Minnesota State Republican Convention. Duluth. On the shores of Lake Superior.

Minnesota History

Furthermore some of the state’s old hands don’t know Minnesota’s unique social and political history. We’ll discover it together in Minnesota Road Trip-Progressives-History-Politics-Duluth 2018-Podcast 727.

Town Hall Is In Our Blood

Sure, we know our pioneer history. Especially relevant is the unique history of political grass roots and town hall style representation.

Minnesota’s first settlers were New Englanders and New Yorkers. They brought town halls with them. Later immigrants from Scandinavia, Germany and Ireland formed the bedrock of so called ‘progressive‘ politics in the state. Therefore, those ideas are still with us.

Yes Republicans Were Progressives and Populists Too

In addition while some people assume progressive politics these days is only the political left, republicans too have a long history of progressivism. Find out in Minnesota Road Trip-Progressives-History-Politics-Duluth 2018-Podcast 727.

Tim Pawlenty Tries To Derail Caucus Process

Will the grassroots system survive in Minnesota? Former republican Governor Tim Pawlenty isn’t attending because he’ll be clinking crystal with rich guys at the Minneapolis Club. Pawlenty’s operatives will push the convention to refuse to endorse a candidate for governor. This is the main issue in Duluth this weekend.

Do We Really Want To Dump The Town Hall?

Moreover populists and progressives go back to the roots of Minnesota Republicans and democrats. Probably a big part of that process has been town hall style politics in the caucus system. Most of all do we really want to get rid of it?

Surprises In This Podcast

In conclusion as I researched this podcast I learned a few surprising facts. I think you will too.

(EDITOR’S NOTE: Two things. First, it’s not 35W heading to Duluth, it’s just 35 North. Being a Twin Citiean, I have to get on 35W before 35 North. Second, for some reason I thought the State DFL convention – the democrats – was being held in Rochester, Minnesota the week after the Republican Convention in Duluth. Once again those sneaky democrats have managed to slip out of my grasp. It’s in the 40’s in Duluth and the 80’s in Rochester. Given the quality of the speeches in Duluth this weekend, I wish I had gone to Rochester!)

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Minnesota Road Trip-Progressives-History-Politics-Duluth 2018-Podcast 727

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

FM-Tech-AI-Cryto-Gas-Governors-Week’s Best Stories-Podcast 723

Every once and a while it’s good to roll through the news and pick a few stories to talk about. Used to do this a lot back in the radio days. These days not so much. We’ll talk about it in FM-Tech-AI-Cryto-Gas-Governors-Week’s Best Stories-Podcast 723.

The Brits May Say Goodbye To FM

Radio is a good place to start. Seems the Brits are getting rid of the FM Radio Band. Listening to digital services in the UK is now over fifty percent. Meanwhile in the US, the radio industry insists on telling the world radio listening has never been higher.  I don’t believe it.

Young Adults Abandon Radio

Especially relevant is an informal survey I did recently of younger adults. I asked them if they listened to the radio. Virtually none of them have. In years.

Princess Leia On Your Smart Phone

Radio talk makes me want to talk about tech. Remember the Princess Leia hologram in the first Star Wars? The first holographic smart phone is due to hit the market this year. The Red Hydrogen One will allow you to shoot 3D video and projects a holographic display which doesn’t require special glasses to see. Another idea from Star Wars that has become real. Details in FM-Tech-AI-Cryto-Gas-Governors-Week’s Best Stories-Podcast 723.

Big Tech Makes Us Mad

When they’re not complaining about gas prices, people love to complain about social media and big tech companies. With so many of the top market cap companies in the tech world, like Amazon and FaceBook for example, people are getting worried they might be too big. Regulation is the answer, right?

Not So Fast

Big Tech Disruptors

What disrupts social media and tech companies? Artificial Intelligence and Crypto Currencies to name two. Blockchain, Smart Contacts and Community to name three more. Moreover when you combine these new ideas with robotics and a faster and more robust internet, the next big thing might not be Amazon, FaceBook, Google or Apple.

Maybe It Will Disrupt Big Government Too

If so called ‘Big Tech’ can be disrupted by this ‘crust’ of new tech ideas that give the consumer control of their identity and money, what’s the possibility for the disruption and eventual dissolution of our sclerotic government? Think about it with me in FM-Tech-AI-Cryto-Gas-Governors-Week’s Best Stories-Podcast 723.

Minnesota Where Corruption-I Mean Business As Usual-is Legal

In conclusion it’s business as usual in the land of ten thousand lakes. The 2018 Governor’s race is heating up. Retiring 1st district congressman Tim Walz just got the nod from Education Minnesota. This is a big endorsement for Democratic candidates. On the Republican side the more things change…

Attack Of The Re-Treads

Gubernatorial re-tread and wealthy banking lobbyist Tim Pawlenty has decided to forgo the Minnesota GOP’s State Convention at Duluth in the beginning of June. He says he got into the race too late. Truth is, the twenty or so rich guys in Minnetonka don’t like the grassroots political community. Find out why in FM-Tech-AI-Cryto-Gas-Governors-Week’s Best Stories-Podcast 723.

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FM-Tech-AI-Cryto-Gas-Governors-Week’s Best Stories-Podcast 723

How Content In Bob Davis Podcasts Gives Greater Insight-Podcast 720

As the host of over 720 podcasts I have trouble remembering the insights I have stumbled across. In fact many of these podcasts remain relevant. We’ll talk about it in How Content In Bob Davis Podcasts Gives Greater Insight-Podcast 720.

Partisan Coverage Is Killing Us

The heavily partisan nature of media these days has been a theme in these podcasts. I spent some time on my own website the other day and what I found surprised me. Much of it was prescient or oddly predictive.

No Predictions

Now, I can’t stand political commentators that try to predict outcomes. I actually try to avoid predicting outcomes. Thing is, when a person travels thousands of miles on backroads across this country as I have, there’s a huge takeaway. I’ll tell you about it in How Content In Bob Davis Podcasts Gives Greater Insight-Podcast 720.

Content Content Content

Moreover I have been doing a number of tightly focused podcasts packed with content lately.

No One Trusts Traditional Media

Talk radio, cable television news, even new media these days, is focused on pushing a point of view. What’s more the national media, broadcast media, and mainstream media might be missing a big shift when it comes to voters.

When it comes to issues, my use of source material and research pays off for subscribers and listeners. In addition going to the story in Mobile Podcast Command has made a huge difference in broadening my perspective.

How To Find Information On My Website

Time for a podcast that details some of the older podcasts and explains how to use the search capability on my site to go back and find some stories you might not have heard.

From The Pipeline To The California Coast

From the pipeline protest to covering the 2016 primary races in Iowa, North Carolina and Florida. Or, reading the tax bill to breaking down all the toss up House and Senate races, I don’t tell you what to think or who to vote for. I give you the lay of the land and let you make your own judgements.

Not Just Politics

In conclusion there are many more insights that come from travel and detailed study that have nothing to do with politics and they are in these podcasts too. I’ve focused on the political stuff in this podcast for the junkies out there, but anyone can use the search window and other features to find podcasts about life in general. I find I like some of those the best.

Citizen Journalism

How does a citizen journalist or podcaster contribute in a hurricane of information? Find out in How Content In Bob Davis Podcasts Gives Greater Insight-Podcast 720.

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How Content In Bob Davis Podcasts Gives Greater Insight-Podcast 720

 

 

2018 House Toss Up Races-Story Lines-Predictions-Part 2-Podcast 717

Continuing to run down the toss up races in the 2018 midterm elections for the US House. The big story line? A democrat wave will wrest control of the house from the republicans. In 2018 House Toss Up Races-Story Lines-Predictions-Part 2-Podcast 717.

From The Midwest Across To The Atlantic Coast

Kansas and Nebraska. East of the Mississippi to Iowa. Minnesota which has some of the closest House races in the country. Illinois in the northern suburbs, and the Land of Lincoln’s southern tip. Across to New York, Georgia, New Hampshire and more.

All About Political Junkies

The second of two parts of a mega podcasting effort for political junkies and subscribers who just want someone to objectively run down all the races in one spot. We’ll challenge some of the myths and tell you why some pundits say this year is a game changer. In 2018 House Toss Up Races-Story Lines-Predictions-Part 2-Podcast 717.

These days the biggest problem with the media is its penchant for trying to predict the future. Americans are ill served because of this problem. Expectations become truth. Final outcomes turn out to be much harder to predict. Democrats learned this the hard way in 2016’s presidential race.

Republicans Defending The Most Toss Up Seats

Especially relevant is the fact that as a political agnostic, I’m not afraid to tell you there is almost no polling to speak of, despite all the efforts to predict the outcome of 435 House Races. To be sure, the republicans are defending most of the toss up seats.

Why Democrats Believe This Will Be A Wave

Moreover after spending two days poring over election data and reading about local issues and personalties, I can tell you why democrats believe this will be a ‘wave’ election. Do their hopes have any basis in reality? Well. Listen and find out. In 2018 House Toss Up Races-Story Lines-Predictions-Part 2-Podcast 717.

With the Midterms 7 months away, anything can happen. Moreover primaries in some races will determine the tactical situation in many of the House districts in question. Both parties are furiously trying to raise enough money to compete. Will they be able to commit the resources they’re famous for in the special elections that grabbed all the headlines lately?

All Politics Is Local

That’s the old saying. What are the local issues, personalties and unique characteristics of places we don’t think very much about unless its our home? How many of those out of the way places may have an election that determines the future of our country? Check out 2018 House Toss Up Races-Story Lines-Predictions-Part 2-Podcast 717 and let’s talk. For the same kind of analysis on the US Senate Toss Up races, go here.

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2018 House Toss Up Races-Story Lines-Predictions-Part 2-Podcast 717

Franken Resigns-GOP Celebrates-Sexual Politics Rules-Podcast 683

Minnesota Senator Al Franken announced his impending resignation on December 7th, 2017. A can of worms popped open for both political parties as Minnesota and National Republicans and Democrats try to figure out the aftermath. We’ll talk about it in Franken Resigns-GOP Celebrates-Sexual Politics Rules-Podcast 683.

Welcome To The Age Of American Ignorance

These days people wonder what has happened to American politics. To answer that question, one need only to turn to social media. What passes for political discourse these days is nothing more than ignorant shouting, name calling and demanding that they all get what they want right now.

Garbage In Garbage Out

Especially relevant is what happens when a real crisis develops. A Tax Reform package. The aftermath of the resignation of a senator. Moreover what passes for ‘news’ on biased platforms is garbage. We’ll try to balance that in Franken Resigns-GOP Celebrates-Sexual Politics Rules-Podcast 683.

Minnesota As Political Ground Zero In 2018

Minnesotans can look forward to an especially hot political season, starting in January 2018. There will certainly be two senate seats up for grabs in 2018 and one in 2020. With a close race for republicans in Alabama the senate and future of the country hangs in the balance. Why is Franken delaying his departure? Who will his replacement be?

Thermidor II

Finally, a cautionary note. In conclusion a podcaster wonders whether the politics of personal destruction has become a little like the aftermath of the French Revolution. A mob sending shocked victims to the gallows. In this case, the gallows of public opinion. While not defending whatever the accused have been accused of, it is true that they have not been able to face their accusers in a court where they have a chance to present a defense and question the character of their accused, the way their character has been questioned.

This does not end well. Just sayin’

(Editor’s Note: Some people have wondered how the governor would ‘appoint himself’ to be the next senator from Minnesota. The governor resigns and the Lieutenant Governor then appoints the former governor to the senate. In 1976 Minnesota governor Wendell Anderson resigned to be appointed to the senate by Lieutenant Governor Rudy Perpich. The DFL suffered a stinging defeat at the next election. This defeat was ever after called ‘The Minnesota Massacre‘.)

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Franken Resigns-GOP Celebrates-Sexual Politics Rules-Podcast 683