Final Approach-Lock Down-Election 2018-Bob Davis Podcast 773

These days everyone on the air everywhere seems hell bent for leather to predict the future. Moreover they’re also often partisan commentators. In this final podcast before the election, what to look for on election night. Get details in Final Approach-Lock Down-Election 2018-Bob Davis Podcast 773.

No Predictions

I don’t do predictions. For the purposes of election coverage at The Bob Davis Podcasts, I don’t do partisanship.

Has Donald Trump Changed Politics?

For election 2018 I have two especially relevant questions. First, have the tactics of President Donald Trump changed American politics? Second, are the media’s predictions skewed? Get it all in Final Approach-Lock Down-Election 2018-Bob Davis Podcast 773.

Nine Podcasts Detailing Toss Up Races

I’ve done nine podcasts detailing the so called toss up races for House, Senate and Governors across the country. Listen to them here. These podcasts explain the media storyline which is that President Trump will lose the house, at the very least.

Democrats Need 26 Wins

Democrats need to win at least 26 seats in order to take back the house. With over 60 toss up races, according to some analysts the storyline that there will be a change in House leadership is easily sold. Moreover taking back the Senate will be even more difficult. In Final Approach-Lock Down-Election 2018-Bob Davis Podcast 773 I explain why it might not be that easy.

Decide For Yourself

Finally if you’re watching TV on election night you need to know what to look for so you can decide for yourself what the chances of a change in House or Senate leadership is a possible outcome.

No Polling Bad Polling

Truth is many ‘toss up’ classifications for House elections across the country don’t even have polling to back it up. What’s more what polling exists is either spotty, dated, to skewed. I explain why, where and how in Final Approach-Lock Down-Election 2018-Bob Davis Podcast 773.

What To Watch For In Each Time Zone On Election Night

Working our way west from Virginia and Florida, to the central and mountain time zones, all the way to the Pacific, I take a look at the headline elections. House, Senate and Governors. What will pick ups or holds for either mainline political party mean for the final tally?

Minnesota May Tell The Story

In conclusion I don’t know which way this election will turn but I can tell you what to look for as it happens. Listeners and Subscribers in Minnesota will be especially interested in the part of the podcast that deals with the Land Of Ten Thousand Lakes, because Minnesota has at least four nail biter elections, on which control of the House at least could rest.

Finally there are over one hundred ballot measures which could effect voter turn out in some key states. For a complete state by state list, go here.

(Editor’s Note: Another number thrown about for Democrat control of the House is 23. My calculations say they need 25 seats. Some say 26 to cement control of the chamber. For political watchers, if Democrats gain up to 23 seats before the end of the night on November 6th 2018, a majority is pretty much guaranteed at that point).

Sponsored by Ryan Plumbing and Heating of Saint Paul

 

Final Approach-Lock Down-Election 2018-Bob Davis Podcast 773

 

2018 Governors Toss Up Races-Polls-Bob Davis Podcast 752

Most people these days don’t dial into elections until after Labor Day. I’m doing a series of podcasts to get you updated on all the so called ‘toss up’ races. Learn more about the Governor’s races in 2018 Governors Toss Up Races-Polls-Bob Davis Podcast 752.

Old Saws Predict Races?

Moreover pundits and statisticians are hell bent for leather to tell you who’s going to win every race. Most noteworthy are the ‘old saws’ of politics. Predictions based on truisms and sayings.

You’re Right Until You’re Wrong

Maybe these old ways of predicting outcomes combined with new data are right. My experience is, they’re right until they’re wrong. I’ll explain in 2018 Governors Toss Up Races-Polls-Bob Davis Podcast 752.

Let The People Decide

Also I believe people should be able to make decisions about who they think is going to win, and who to vote for, without being told who’s going to win three months before election day. Wouldn’t you like to hear some information about this elections without someone telling you who’s going to win? That’s what I do in 2018 Governors Toss Up Races-Polls-Bob Davis Podcast 752.

Local Or National?

For example we’re told that national issues are driving all the races in the 2018 Midterm Elections. Is this true? Or is it possible local issues may be central? In some states taxes and budgets. In others, mining vs environment and business versus agriculture.

States Are Bigger Than You Think

One thing I’ve learned traveling back and forth across this country on two lane roads is the individual states of these United States are very diverse and a lot larger than they look on a map. How does this fact impact the race? Find out in 2018 Governors Toss Up Races-Polls-Bob Davis Podcast 752.

Too Close To Call? Check Again

Finally how many of these races are actually ‘toss ups’. How many contests between gubernatorial candidates really are too close to call? You might be surprised at the answer.

Red or Blue May Not Be

In conclusion the experts say the number of states under partisan party control is important. States are either ‘blue’ or ‘red’. Are all republicans and democrats created equal? Or is the truth somewhere in the middle?

Sponsored by Ryan Plumbing and Heating of Saint Paul

2018 Governors Toss Up Races-Polls-Bob Davis Podcast 752

Family Stories In Virginia-Where To Next-Podcast 638

Short road trips are great. Going away for the weekend is fun. My preference is for much longer trips. Storm Chasing in Missouri. Visiting the National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center in Oklahoma. Don’t forget Arkansas. Meeting up with my son on his own road trip in Kansas. Visiting old friends in Tennessee. Now in Virginia checking in with family in Family Stories In Virginia-Where To Next-Podcast 638.

Happiness Is A Clean Windshield and A Full Tank Of Gas

There is a sense of peace that only comes from seeing the highway through the windshield. If you happen to be in the mid south, try a couple of the highways I mention in Family Stories In Virginia-Where To Next-Podcast 638. Backroads are always better and some of them are spectacular through Tennessee and Arkansas.

Seeing The Real America

The media is full of locators. This happened in California. That happened in Florida. Atlanta. Chicago. LA. New York City. York PA. The news gives us a sense of the United States as either exclusively urban or hopelessly rural. Travel on the highways and backroads reminds us how vast and actually empty our country is.

Family Stories

One of the missions of this road trip is to visit the hometown of my grandparents and great grandparents, great uncles and aunts and cousins. Most of my life I’ve been hearing apocalyptic stories of coal mining in southern Ohio. I don’t know about your family get togethers but mine are punctuated by confirmations of some of those stories, and guffaws. “Grandpa made that up!” is a common refrain. Time to at least go back to the old village and at least get a sense of the ground. In Family Stories In Virginia-Where To Next-Podcast 638.

Where Did That Happen?

Doing a long road trip? You’re mind will wander. Thoughts will come in and go out just as quickly. Months later you’ll be doing something and a thought and experience will come to mind. You will think, “Where was I when I thought that?”. We don’t always have the time to do this, we don’t travel like this enough, and it is good for the soul to do it. In Family Stories In Virginia-Where To Next-Podcast 638.

Sponsored by Ryan Plumbing and Heating of Saint Paul

Family Stories In Virginia-Where To Next-Podcast 638

 

Dad Dog And Son Road Trip Meet Up-Podcast 635

Father and Son have taken many trips together over the years. We’ve crisscrossed the nation. Taken the train to ski out west. Gone to China and hit the highways out east. Father is storm chasing in North Eastern Oklahoma. Son is heading North East from California to New York, hauling an oversized U-Haul trailer with a little jeep. There’s a dog in the story too. In Dad Dog And Son Road Trip Meet Up-Podcast 635.

Two Different Road Trips Meet Up In Kansas

Used to ‘red balling’ it from the campaign trail, it’s a hop, skip and a jump from Miami, Oklahoma to Wichita Kansas. Taking a run across highway 133 all the way to 35 North, onto the Kansas left exit rest stops. I spent the night at Belle Plaine service plaza. Later in the day we figured out my son was emerging onto 35 from Kansas 400, about twenty miles north.

Meeting Up Ain’t So Easy

No problem! Back on the highway. Hauling ass for the next service area, north of Wichita. Towanda! This is where we met up in Dad Dog And Son Road Trip Meet Up-Podcast 635. Obviously when father and son get together there will be a podcast involved. And a dog. And some fast food.

Relaxed and Calm On The Road

Don’t worry I’m not missing any storms. Blue skies and sunshine out here in Kansas. Not a cloud in the sky. Being On The Road for any length of time changes my energy. I am much more relaxed and calm. More at home out here on the highways and interstates than when at home. A little bit of an energy mis-match between Andrew Davis and his father Bob Davis.

Lots of Content in This Podcast

Yes, he wants to talk about politics. We cover traveling with a dog that weighs about as much as me, and a giant U-Haul full of other people’s stuff. China’s history also comes up. The desire people seem to have these days to tear it all down. Andrew has concerns about losing our stability. That’s all it takes for dad to engage. And we’re off!

Son and Father Enjoy A Deep Connection

Discussions between us have always been this way, since he was a little kid. My favorite moment is when I ask him, “So you’ve traveled from California to Kansas and all you noticed is there are more trees?!”. We also talk about rural America’s trials and tribulations, how geographically large the United States actually is, and a lot more.

Sponsored by Ryan Plumbing and Heating of Saint Paul and X Government Cars.

Dad Dog And Son Road Trip Meet Up-Podcast 635

Planning First Summer Road Trip-Storm Chasing-Podcast 632

Americans are allowing themselves to disregard most of the news they don’t agree with. Everything is ‘fake news’, unless it tells me what I want to hear. For those addicted, disengaging is nearly impossible. It’s important to realize in a concrete way, there is another world out there. There are many escapes. One of the best is travel. Time to prepare to head out in Planning First Summer Road Trip-Storm Chasing-Podcast 632.

Getting Ready

Planning the trip. The moment before the trip begins is almost as fun as the trip itself. Makes me recall getting ready for camping trips as a boy. Everything laid out on the floor for packing in the back pack. Calling friends and figuring out what everyone was bringing. What we would be cooking over the open fire.

Storm Chasing

This Memorial Day weekend I am Storm Chasing! Many things on this week’s check list. Getting Mobile Podcast Command checked out. Renewing my drivers license. Getting a haircut so I can do my You Tube videos. Loading in the sound board, microphones, the office stuff, and the food. Double and triple checking.

Into The Belly Of The Beast

Some of the underrated but fertile Tornado Chasing areas include Southeastern Iowa, Northeastern Kansas, Eastern Arkansas and Western Texas. Then the standard destinations for Storm Chasers. Oklahoma, Missouri, Nebraska and Iowa. We will chase the storm chasers and get an idea of what this tribe is all about these days. In Planning First Summer Road Trip-Storm Chasing-Podcast 632.

Nature’s Summer Show

Storms are obviously bigger than all of us. Uncontrollable. Following these storms takes you through rural America. Two lane roads. Farm roads. Small towns across the Midwest and Mid South. Places made famous during the Bonnie and Clyde era. Places generally forgotten but magnificent in their own way.

It’s All About Anticipation

Join me planning the first three legs of this summer trip, with a hint of what is to come after. This isn’t a vacation. This is how the Bob Davis Podcasts works on the road. No talking heads. No one telling me what to think. Nothing but the open road, a clean windshield and fuel tanks full. (Editor’s Note: A few hours after posting this podcast I realized I referred to the movie ‘Twister‘ as ‘Tornado‘. What was I thinking? Maybe ‘Sharknado‘? LOL)

Sponsored by Brush Studio in the West End, Saint Louis Park

Planning First Summer Road Trip-Storm Chasing-Podcast 632

Podcast 554-Latest Election State By State Polls

Podcast 554-Latest Election State By State Polls. For you political junkies, which includes me, it’s been a month since the last analysis of political polls state by state, and I promised another one at the end of September, 2016. If you want to compare the two state by state poll podcasts to really get a sense of movement check out Podcast 541. I do not intend to analyze the debate. I will not tell you who won the debate. I will not tell you whether people pay attention to the debates. None of the current state by state polls were taken after the debates so they do not reflect the effects on either candidate of the debates. With this in mind, over 80 million people watched the September 26th debate between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump. The next state-by-state poll roundup podcast at the end of October will show what effect – if any – the debates may or may not have had. The biggest change between this podcast and the podcast in late August is that there are now more ‘toss up’ states — that is states with poll averages for president within the margin of error. In Podcast 554-State By State Polls, I am drawing on data from Real Clear Politics. Follow the link directly to an interactive electoral map of the United States and follow along, or may your own map. The tightening could be knock on effects from Clinton’s bad week of September 11th, or it could just be due to more polls closer to the election, when respondents start paying attention and are more likely to give responses. You’ll have to listen for my conclusions about whether more toss up states mean anything, but for the most part, both candidates are within the margins in 2012 and 2008 in the states they lead, or are trading leads. The big questions remain Florida, Ohio, Pennsyvania, Virginia, and to a lesser extent North Carolina, South Carolina, Georgia, Wisconsin, Michigan, and western states like Colorado, Arizona and Nevada. This is a state by state electoral election, so the national polls don’t matter, and the snap polls on who won the debate don’t matter. All that matters is the candidate’s performance, and get out the vote efforts for them in key electoral states. Listen and learn the state by state strongholds, battlegrounds, advantages and disadvantages, roughly a month out. We’ll come back at the end of October and again just before the election in early November, and see how the campaigning, media, and news events have changed the political landscape. Sponsored by Ryan Plumbing of Saint Paul.

Podcast 543-Bob Davis Podcasts Radio Show-41

Podcast 543-Bob Davis Podcasts Radio Show-41. All new content for this week’s radio show. I devoted some time in Podcast 541 to the state by state polls. So, for the radio show, rather than excerpt segments from that podcast, given the fact that new polls are being taken almost daily, I decided to do an all new radio show with updates where applicable for the state by state polls. As I said in previous podcasts, the election of the president in the United States is not a popular vote affair. When you vote for an individual candidate, you are voting for a slate of electors, already chosen by the state parties, controlled by state election law. These are the people who actually vote for the president. While no elector has ever been prosecuted for voting their conscience so to speak, there have been faithless electors. And as much crap as the electoral system takes, there have only been two elector incidents in our history. Both of these happened in the early days of the republic (1796 and 1800) when the system called for the ‘runner up’ for president to be the vice president. Florida in 2000 was not an electoral college issue, since the electoral college had not voted. Florida in 2000 was a local vote counting issue that was litigated all the way up to the US Supreme Court, which ended up deciding the issue for George W. Bush. The US is a representative republic, not a direct democracy. Both parties want to tinker with the electoral college. Hillary Clinton has said we should amend the constitution to abolish the electoral college. Republicans want to tinker with it by pushing something called the ‘National Popular Vote’ which is essentially slaving all fifty states’ electoral votes to the popular vote in that state. Currently 29 states require the electors to vote for the winner of the popular vote. If the 2016 cycle leaves us with any impression, it is that mob rule in politics is not a good thing. My preference is to go back to letting the electors be the electors, and by the way, to letting state legislatures appoint US Senators as well. So, given the electoral factor in the US presidential election, focusing on national popularity polls is pretty much a waste of time. At this time, State by State polls do not paint a pretty picture for Republican Donald Trump, or even for the Republican effort to hold the US Senate. Republicans don’t like to hear bad news but there it is. Can Trump pull it out? Yes, but listen to the podcast to find out where he has to put his efforts in the next few weeks before the election. Whether you think of the starting gun as the primary season, the conventions, Labor Day or two weeks before election day, the Republicans are the underdogs at this point in time and they have their work cut out for them, all in this brand new Podcast 543-Bob Davis Podcasts Radio Show-41. Sponsored by Ryan Plumbing and Heating of Saint Paul and Karow Contracting.

Podcast 474

Gonzo Talk. No prep. No notes. No editing. These are the rules of Gonzo Talk. I’ve done it before, under different names. I kind of like ‘Gonzo Talk’. This is the way I used to do podcasts, but after nearly 500 podcasts you evolve. It seems weird now, to do Gonzo Talk since I have become comfortable with a little more planning, or what I like to call a controlled burn. I know what I want to say, and rather than pussy foot around, I am able to get right to it because I have put some thought into it beforehand. Not so with Gonzo Talk. You start talking and you keep talking until the podcast is over. What comes up, is what comes up. What is said, is what is said. No editing. We start talking about different coffee makers, progressing to Minnesota’s establishment ‘republican’ effort to get rid of the state’s caucus system, and in view of Iowa’s Pride over their caucus system it seems a little statist. What a surprise. Progressing through the primary and caucus wins this weekend for Ted Cruz and Donald Trump. Isn’t it funny how the two candidates winning are most decidedly not establishment candidates. The only candidate that has more potential than Trump to freak the fuddy duddies out in the republican establishment, is Senator Ted Cruz. Just this last week Mister Loser himself suggested breaking the rules he backed to defend himself against Ron Paul at the RNC in 2012. Now Romney is pulling the aw shucks I don’t know nuthin, mister routine. After creating a process that has resulted in unmitigated disaster for establishment republicans, now they want to flush the whole primary process and contest the convention, thus nominating old Milque Toast himself, Mitt Romney. What about sealing off Washington, and forming a new government in Council Bluffs, Iowa? We don’t tell Washington they’re not in charge anymore. We just let them think they’re running things! Wait! Isn’t that kind of the way it is? Or maybe the way it will be? The people are speaking and they are not speaking establishment, on either side of the supposed political spectrum. Of course the tone deaf establishment, democrat and republican, isn’t listening. Why should we listen to them? Hey! I kind of like Gonzo Talk! Sponsored by Brush Studio and Pride of Homes and Luke Team Real Estate.

Podcast 343

Kansas, Oklahoma and Texas. The Road Trip continues all the way to California. Usually I do not write these notes for each podcast in the first person, but I am writing this from a Starbucks in Amarillo, Texas. The WIFI is being very temperamental and it’s driving me nuts! This has been a long day of travel, and doing podcasts. This is the second of two podcasts for your weekend, and there will be two on Sunday. In this podcast I wanted to give you a flavor of what being on the road is like, where my mind wanders and what I have been thinking about. Being on the road definitely has the effect of allowing me to take a more philosophical tone on some of the issues we’re dealing with these days. I love being on the road, and I love the new Mobile Podcast Command vehicle. My sister calls it the Bob Mobile. My friend Margaret calls it the ‘Wambulance’. Ed Johnson at X Government Cars calls it the “Bob Cat”. Cruising south on I35, on through to Oklahoma City, then picked up I40 through western Oklahoma, and onto Texas. I’m sorry but I forgot I have to go through Texas. Then its on to New Mexico, into Phoenix for a few days by the pool, and then onto California. This isn’t all fun and games though. This shakedown cruise is all about learning how to use all these tools on the fly, and integrate them into the systems in the Mobile Command Unit. That way when we scramble for a real story, I should be able to do everything on the fly. At least that’s what I keep telling myself. Thanks for your support and interest. Having a riot! Sponsored by Baklund R & D

Podcast 246

Final Polls Before Election. Election 2014 Coverage. As this podcast is posted, it is the early hours of Election Day 2014 in the United States. One third of the US Senate, all of the House of Representatives, scores of Governors and State Representatives and Senators across the country, are waiting to see what an unpredictable electorate will decide. These races are very important to the lives of the people in these individual states, and to the people of the country as a whole. Politics is not Sports, but it is being covered as though it is. Politicians are presented as players. Speech writers, campaign managers, party officials and insiders as coaches, former politicians and pundits become willing participants in what is being described as the ‘pageant’ of American politics. Viewers and listeners become invested in which ‘team’ wins or loses, and so emotionally identify with a ‘side’, as though that reflects the true nature of politics. The relationship between voters and their representatives is complex and runs deep. Since cable television news channels decided to give up reporting the news, and copied talk radio’s format, television now pushes people to the right or left paradigm in order to keep them watching. Although political polling was a factor in election coverage before 2010, controversy over Obama Care spurred the Tea Party Movement, and carried Republicans to a majority in the House of Representatives. In 2012 the polls indicated a slight advantage for Republican candidate Mitt Romney, and the Republican establishment felt it was entitled to the presidency. Only a few people said the polls were too close (Editor’s Note: I was one of them), but they were ignored in the headlong confirmation between Republicans that they would ‘win’. Moral of the story? Polls can be wrong. Really wrong. And here we are again, in November of 2014, with the election ‘moneyballers’ applying sports statistical analysis to something as widely variable and unreliable as political polling, and not just political polling but, polling in individual states. Added to this, media executives, producers, program directors and editors pushing their writers, broadcasters and guests to conclude, predict and provoke the audience, just as long as they watch another twenty four hours. And then there is the relentless onrush of negative mailers, attack ads, flaps and gaffes that go viral through social media and become ‘news stories. In this podcast, we’ll run down the polls one more time and make no predictions. At the end of this special edition election update from The Bob Davis Podcasts you’ll know how the polls stand in the so called ‘battleground’ states, and you’ll be able to come to your own conclusions about whether the predictions are outlandish or not. Sponsored by Ryan Plumbing and Heating of Saint Paul, and by Depotstar