Toss Up House Elections 2018-Part 4-Podcast 756

As I do the last two podcasts in the toss up series at the Bob Davis Podcasts, more predictions of a democrat wave are most notable. Are these predictions true? We’ll find out in Toss Up House Elections 2018-Part 4-Podcast 756.

Shellacking

In addition to commentators AP reported this week that republican pollsters are telling top republicans they’re in for a shellacking in November.

As a mission of the Bob Davis Podcasts I have been looking at those elections deemed ‘toss ups’ by the experts.

Conventional Wisdom Is Right Until Wrong

Especially relevant is the idea behind the mission. No predictions. Non partisan. What is the situation in these key districts in the final weeks of the election. Readers, subscribers and listeners might be surprised to learn very few public polls exist. Conventional wisdom drives most of these predictions. I detail this for each toss up in Toss Up House Elections 2018-Part 4-Podcast 756.

Close Elections Don’t Always Mean Flips

From North Carolina to Texas in Toss Up House Elections 2018-Part 4-Podcast 756. Toss up races are simply close elections for whatever reason. Moreover most US House elections are in solid democrat or republican districts. This year some say there are more than 40 districts that will be close. Why they’re close is key.

Open Seats And Changing Geography

In some cases the district is an open seat because of retirements. In other cases, the contours of the district’s geography have changed. What was once a solid republican or democrat district is now supposedly more ‘balanced’.

Everyone Hates Congress…

Finally the real question in the 2018 midterms is whether people will vote their opinions of the president or local concerns. The old saying goes, everyone hates congress but not their congressman.

One Size Fits All Election?

In conclusion I spent a fair amount of time not only looking through the data for these districts but also watching some of the internet and TV ads for candidates. Sometimes it’s hard to tell the republican from the democrat. This is not a one size fits all election even though the media would have its viewers believe it is.

Once I finish this series in this podcast, and the next, I’ll do one more podcast with my analysis since there isn’t much time for that in these podcasts dealing with individual districts.

Sponsored by John D Scott Personal Injury Lawyer and the Water Butler Water Purification Systems

Toss Up House Elections 2018-Part 4-Podcast 756

 

Toss Up House Elections 2018 Part 2-Bob Davis Podcast 754

Second in a series of podcasts detailing the so called toss up races in the 2018 midterm elections. Most noteworthy here are my observations about whether many of these elections are actually toss ups. Find out why I say this in Toss Up House Elections 2018 Part 2-Bob Davis Podcast 754.

Trump’s Future Hangs In The Balance

From Iowa, to Illinois. Kansas to Kentucky in this podcast you’ll find out why the media says the future of Donald Trump’s administration hangs in the balance. You’ll also find out whether the predicted ‘blue wave’ could be reality. Or not.

Details Without Partisanship

As I have said many times, one of the things our media loves to do these days is predict the future, The reason I am producing this series of podcasts is to give you the existing conditions in each of these districts without partisan comment or predictions. This series includes the Senate toss ups, and the Governor’s toss ups and part one of the house toss ups.

How Close Are They?

How close is the race in Illinois’ northwestern suburbs that make up the 6th district? What about all the predictions about 12th district which stretches from the working class Saint Louis suburbs across the river, all the way to the southern tip of the Land of Lincoln? Especially relevant here are predictions about Kentucky’s 6th district, which the president won by 17 points. When a candidate for president wins a state by over twenty points, is there a potential for backlash? Learn more in Toss Up House Elections 2018 Part 2-Bob Davis Podcast 754.

Telling The Voter What’s Going To Happen Before The Vote

These days it doesn’t matter whether you’re on network television or You Tube. If you have a national talk radio show or are a podcaster. Everyone wants to tell the voter what’s going to happen before it happens. If you listen to this series of my podcasts you’ll know the situation in these districts. You’ll know what races to watch on election night.

What IS The Situation?

Once the voters decides for themselves who their voting for on election night, they can sit back and watch the results knowing what races to look for. Why? Because someone looked at all the key races and without partisanship or rancor laid out what the situation is.

Fortune Tellers

Finally, many of these districts have no polling unless its done by partisan groups or political parties. Predictions are being made based on the 2016 election or because one party or another said they were ‘targeting’ that race. In conclusion our politics are too fluid for political fortune tellers to be accurate.

Sponsored by John D Scott Personal Injury Lawyer and Ryan Plumbing and Heating of Saint Paul

Toss Up House Elections 2018 Part 2-Bob Davis Podcast 754

 

2018 Senate Toss Up Races-Polls-Bob Davis Podcast 751

These days political coverage turns elections into sporting events. My mission is to provide political coverage without making predictions. Let’s start with the Senate in 2018 Senate Toss Up Races-Polls-Bob Davis Podcast 751.

November 6th 2018

First of all throughout this podcast I refer to election day as November 7th 2018. In fact it’s November 6th, 2018. Until election day, many of the questions people have about outcomes will remain unanswered. I’ll tell you why.

Statewide Races

Furthermore commentators love to make national predictions. It’s important to remember these are individual state elections. Despite efforts by the media to make you think these are national elections, they aren’t. They’re local elections. Find out more in 2018 Senate Toss Up Races-Polls-Bob Davis Podcast 751.

The Stakes Are High

Especially relevant are the stakes. The future of Donald Trump’s presidency is in the balance with these Midterm Elections regardless of the local and national issues driving them.  Much of the coverage of the 2018 midterm elections hinges on this truth.

Key Races

What it comes down to are about 6 or 7 key races in various states around the country. As we get closer to election day (November 6th 2018, by the way) the line up of so called toss up races might change.

Holding The Majority

Republicans currently hold 50 seats in the US Senate with one vacant seat. Democrats hold 48. 2 Independents caucus with democrats giving them 49 votes potentially. With Vice President Mike Pence, the republicans can count on a 51 seat majority.

Arizona’s governor will appoint a replacement for the late John McCain, giving the republicans a potential 52 vote majority.

Will republicans hold that majority?

Making Useless Predictions

Finally I am so tired of hearing these know it alls making predictions based on primary vote results and conventional wisdom. As you’ll hear in 2018 Senate Toss Up Races-Polls-Bob Davis Podcast 751 polling is pretty thin in some key races. It’s about time someone covered the story without telling you who’s going to win.

Trump’s Twitter Feed

In conclusion we’ll cover about 7 senate races worth talking about. Will the president’s twitter feed and rally machine help republicans or hurt them?

As far as predictions, I remember a sports writer’s response when I asked him which team was going to win the big game Sunday. He said “That’s why we play the game!”

Sponsored by Ryan Plumbing and Heating Of Saint Paul

2018 Senate Toss Up Races-Polls-Bob Davis Podcast 751

 

How Content In Bob Davis Podcasts Gives Greater Insight-Podcast 720

As the host of over 720 podcasts I have trouble remembering the insights I have stumbled across. In fact many of these podcasts remain relevant. We’ll talk about it in How Content In Bob Davis Podcasts Gives Greater Insight-Podcast 720.

Partisan Coverage Is Killing Us

The heavily partisan nature of media these days has been a theme in these podcasts. I spent some time on my own website the other day and what I found surprised me. Much of it was prescient or oddly predictive.

No Predictions

Now, I can’t stand political commentators that try to predict outcomes. I actually try to avoid predicting outcomes. Thing is, when a person travels thousands of miles on backroads across this country as I have, there’s a huge takeaway. I’ll tell you about it in How Content In Bob Davis Podcasts Gives Greater Insight-Podcast 720.

Content Content Content

Moreover I have been doing a number of tightly focused podcasts packed with content lately.

No One Trusts Traditional Media

Talk radio, cable television news, even new media these days, is focused on pushing a point of view. What’s more the national media, broadcast media, and mainstream media might be missing a big shift when it comes to voters.

When it comes to issues, my use of source material and research pays off for subscribers and listeners. In addition going to the story in Mobile Podcast Command has made a huge difference in broadening my perspective.

How To Find Information On My Website

Time for a podcast that details some of the older podcasts and explains how to use the search capability on my site to go back and find some stories you might not have heard.

From The Pipeline To The California Coast

From the pipeline protest to covering the 2016 primary races in Iowa, North Carolina and Florida. Or, reading the tax bill to breaking down all the toss up House and Senate races, I don’t tell you what to think or who to vote for. I give you the lay of the land and let you make your own judgements.

Not Just Politics

In conclusion there are many more insights that come from travel and detailed study that have nothing to do with politics and they are in these podcasts too. I’ve focused on the political stuff in this podcast for the junkies out there, but anyone can use the search window and other features to find podcasts about life in general. I find I like some of those the best.

Citizen Journalism

How does a citizen journalist or podcaster contribute in a hurricane of information? Find out in How Content In Bob Davis Podcasts Gives Greater Insight-Podcast 720.

Sponsored by Ryan Plumbing and Heating of Saint Paul

How Content In Bob Davis Podcasts Gives Greater Insight-Podcast 720

 

 

Truth About 2018 US Senate Predictions-Fairy Tales-Podcast 712

They are at it again. Pundits and talking heads are telling us who’s going to win the 2018 mid term elections. What is the truth about 2018? Find out in Truth About 2018 US Senate Predictions-Fairy Tales-Podcast 712.

Election Day Tuesday November 6th 2018

Tuesday, November 6th, 2018 is a big day. Up for election is the entire US House of Representatives and one third of the US Senate. Governors and state legislators are also up for election on this day.

It Comes Down To Key Races For Republicans and Democrats

This podcast focuses on the US Senate race in 2018. Specifically on several key races that may decide the majority. This is critical for President Trump’s agenda from 2019 and his reelection effort in 2020. Learn the basic contours of these races in Truth About 2018 US Senate Predictions-Fairy Tales-Podcast 712.

The Media IS Doing It Again

Problem is the media has already decided the outcome of this election. It will be democrat wave, they say. The reason? Big national issues favor the democrats. Gun Control. The Me Too movement. Immigration. Trade Protection. Is this true?

These days it seems like when the media says something is going to go one way, it often goes another. I will not tell you what’s going to happen. The Bob Davis Podcasts isn’t in the business of predicting the future, telling people what to think or who to vote for. As in 2016, I’ll try to stick to the facts we know about these races and let you decide what to think about them.

Battleground Senate Races

This podcast focuses on US Senate races in key states considered ‘battlegrounds’. Truth is, republicans are defending fewer vulnerable seats than democratic candidates. Whether than means the GOP will hold onto their majority in the US Senate is quite another question.

All Politics Is Local – Especially Statewide Senate Races

Moreover, Senate races may be effected by national issues, but they are statewide races. Personality and local issues are major factors in such elections. I spend a little time in this podcast outlining examples of regional and geographic political differences. Check it out in Truth About 2018 US Senate Predictions-Fairy Tales-Podcast 712.

Time for Truth about 2018 US Senate Predictions in Podcast 712

In conclusion, despite what the pundits and so called experts tell you, national issues that seem to benefit republicans or democrats, don’t always benefit candidates in tight races in their home states.

Sponsored by Reliafund Payment Processors and Ryan Plumbing and Heating Of Saint Paul

Truth About 2018 US Senate Predictions-Fairy Tales-Podcast 712

 

 

 

Comedy Is A Funny Business-Joleen Lunzer-Podcast 686

On any given weekend in this country local comedy clubs are full. Comedy TV shows and tours are big business. Breaking in to the comedy business, though, is no joke. Find out why in Comedy Is A Funny Business-Joleen Lunzer-Podcast 686.

Doing What You Love Is The Hardest Thing

Moreover, one of the themes of the Bob Davis Podcasts is following your passion. Sometimes doing what you love is the hardest thing. When it comes to the entertainment business, stand up comedy has to be one of the most difficult pursuits to succeed in.

Comedy Is Big Business

Sure. We all know the stars of comedy. Especially relevant is the fact that there are many comedians in the business enjoying success and working their way up. My friend Joleen Lunzer is one of them. Writer. Podcaster. Blogger. Stand Up. Meet her in Comedy Is A Funny Business-Joleen Lunzer-Podcast 686.

Grounded in Saint Paul

Now living in Los Angeles, Joleen has barnstormed across the world and has been a resident stand up in Minneapolis and Saint Paul, Phoenix and Las Vegas. While there are many in the business with an LA or New York orientation, Lunzer’s roots in Saint Paul and the midwest keep her grounded when it comes to what’s funny.

Politics In Comedy

These days doing stand up can be a political minefield. How do you play to an audience full of people from different political tribes and still have a good time? We talk about it in Comedy Is A Funny Business-Joleen Lunzer-Podcast 686.

Still A Minnesota Wild Fan

Finally, following your passion can be a challenge. There are some good nuts and bolts lessons for future writers, podcasters and comedians in this podcast. The main takeaway? Maintaining your roots, especially if you’re from the midwest, can help you through the hard parts. By the way, Joleen is still a Minnesota Wild fan.

Sponsored by Brush Studio West End Saint Louis Park

Comedy Is A Funny Business-Joleen Lunzer-Podcast 686

Summer Solstice Walk and Talk-Road Trip Takeaways-Podcast 642

After so many road trips I get a lot of questions. Why do you do it? What are the three best things that happened on the trip? In Summer Solstice Walk and Talk-Road Trip Takeaways-Podcast 642.

Long Road Trips Are The Best

Road Trips have been a part of my life since I was a kid. As an adult I would often drive pell mell to reach a location. Since acquiring Mobile Podcast Command I’ve spent more time on the road, taking my office and studio with me. Road Trips are an escape both positive and negative. For me, happiness is a clean windshield and a full tank of fuel.

Goals Are Good…And Bad

These days each trip has an objective or two. It‘s best though, not to fill your road trip with objectives even if you are a type A goal setter. You have to leave time to change your mind, turn around or stop in that town. In Summer Solstice Walk and Talk-Road Trip Takeaways-Podcast 642.

Is Life Real?

Travel is like a dream. Especially road tripping. The more you do it the less specific your memory is. I’ll be doing something and think about an experience and wonder, “Where was that?”. Don’t know. Doesn’t matter. The longer the road trip, the more surreal the experience. From Truck Stops and Wal Mart parking lots to State Parks and small towns. In Summer Solstice Walk and Talk-Road Trip Takeaways-Podcast 642.

Back Roads Are Better

This Bob Davis Podcasts Road Trip to me through Minnesota, Iowa, Kansas (twice), Missouri, Oklahoma, Arkansas, Tennessee, North Carolina, Virginia, West Virginia, Ohio, Indiana, Illinois and Wisconsin. Pretty much all on backroads. The first takeaway is stick to state roads, and US highways, even county roads. In Summer Solstice Walk and Talk-Road Trip Takeaways-Podcast 642.

Ready To Go Again

Meeting interesting people, visiting prosperous and not so prosperous towns and villages, seeing family and taking a dream-walk through the town I grew up in are some of best things that happened on this road trip. In conclusion, most of this country is flat out empty, and it’s going to be just fine.

Sponsored by X Government Cars

Summer Solstice Walk and Talk-Road Trip Takeaways-Podcast 642

 

 

Podcast 584-Bob Davis Podcasts Radio Show-58

Podcast 584-Bob Davis Podcasts Radio Show-58. With the Electoral Vote, Donald J. Trump is the official President Elect of the United States. He’ll be sworn in as the 45th President on Friday, January 20th, 2017. As terrible coverage of the election, post election and the events leading up to the inauguration continues, time to shift the conversation toward the challenges ahead. Podcast 584-Bob Davis Podcasts Radio Show-58 my coverage of these challenges.

Last summer I predicted the final outcome of the 2016 election would center on the Great Lakes region of the United States. Ohio, Pennsyvania, Wisconsin, Michigan. The former industrial heartland has been plagued by bad economic and policy initiatives, excessive taxation, corruption and incompetent local governments. It’s not surprising people in these regions would have reached a point where they have had enough.

The new narrative is Donald Trump heralds a new kind of politics in America. Depending on the source, either a darker, jingoistic throwback to the 1950’s, a new kind of Populist-Conservative politics, or a new Centrism. Every politician wants to be thought of as a rail splitter, born in a log cabin. Both Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump come from upper middle class backgrounds. Park Ridge, Illinois and the Jamaica neighborhood of Queens, in New York City are hardly breeding grounds for American Populists.

While the tone of the executive branch might change under Trump the fact is moderate, establishment Republicans and moderate Democrats are still in control of the United States Government. How do we expect this group of out-of-touch politicians to address the challenges we face?

Since 2008 the US has had stimulus, banking legislation, the adoption of The Affordable Health Care Act and a change in Foreign Policy. The result is nominal economic growth, with 63 percent of the eligible workforce sidelined. A foreign policy that was supposed to herald a new era of peace and cooperation, didn’t. Despite major changes in technology, trade and comparative advantage the new story line is Manufacturing’s Greatest Days lie ahead. Is this true? Another initiative of the new administration is to force spending of a trillion dollars on ‘infrastructure’. Will this work? Is this a conservative economic policy approach? With only 8 percent of the work force is employed in manufacturing and construction and most of the rest of us are employed in value added services, one wonders.

Whatever the new president wants to do, it will be processed through the US Congress, State Legislatures and the Courts. With plenty of Democrats in congress and state legislatures ready to put up a good fight, we’ll see how much the GOP and Trump can get done. We’ll also see if the policy they end up with will work to address major challenges of the future.

Massive changes are taking place in our society and the world as the Fourth Industrial Revolution takes hold. While it’s good for Trump supporters and Republicans to celebrate, and for Democrats to prepare their opposition, the question is whether any of the leaders in Washington really understand what is needed for the people of the United States to grow our economy, move forward and prevail in the new world. Sponsored by Brush Studio and X Government Cars.

Podcast 554-Latest Election State By State Polls

Podcast 554-Latest Election State By State Polls. For you political junkies, which includes me, it’s been a month since the last analysis of political polls state by state, and I promised another one at the end of September, 2016. If you want to compare the two state by state poll podcasts to really get a sense of movement check out Podcast 541. I do not intend to analyze the debate. I will not tell you who won the debate. I will not tell you whether people pay attention to the debates. None of the current state by state polls were taken after the debates so they do not reflect the effects on either candidate of the debates. With this in mind, over 80 million people watched the September 26th debate between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump. The next state-by-state poll roundup podcast at the end of October will show what effect – if any – the debates may or may not have had. The biggest change between this podcast and the podcast in late August is that there are now more ‘toss up’ states — that is states with poll averages for president within the margin of error. In Podcast 554-State By State Polls, I am drawing on data from Real Clear Politics. Follow the link directly to an interactive electoral map of the United States and follow along, or may your own map. The tightening could be knock on effects from Clinton’s bad week of September 11th, or it could just be due to more polls closer to the election, when respondents start paying attention and are more likely to give responses. You’ll have to listen for my conclusions about whether more toss up states mean anything, but for the most part, both candidates are within the margins in 2012 and 2008 in the states they lead, or are trading leads. The big questions remain Florida, Ohio, Pennsyvania, Virginia, and to a lesser extent North Carolina, South Carolina, Georgia, Wisconsin, Michigan, and western states like Colorado, Arizona and Nevada. This is a state by state electoral election, so the national polls don’t matter, and the snap polls on who won the debate don’t matter. All that matters is the candidate’s performance, and get out the vote efforts for them in key electoral states. Listen and learn the state by state strongholds, battlegrounds, advantages and disadvantages, roughly a month out. We’ll come back at the end of October and again just before the election in early November, and see how the campaigning, media, and news events have changed the political landscape. Sponsored by Ryan Plumbing of Saint Paul.