Toss Up House Elections 2018-Part 5-Podcast 757

What kind of a news environment are we in these days? A video of a TV reporter struggling against hurricane winds while people walk calmly behind him has gone viral. ‘Fake Wind’ is the latest example of how media covers ‘news’. Are they off base when it comes to politics? Find out in Toss Up House Elections 2018-Part 5-Podcast 757.

All The Toss Up Races All The Time

At the conclusion of this series I have reviewed specific data for Senate, Governors and House elections considered ‘toss ups’ in 2018. Especially relevant is the question of what actual polling data exists, facts about the district and candidates in each of these elections.

These podcasts include much of what I learned. Now you have the same information I have in Toss Up House Elections 2018-Part 5-Podcast 757.

Final Analysis Coming

I’ll do a final analysis in the next podcast. In addition there will be no predictions. No campaigning for a candidate. I think it is very difficult right now given the facts to make predictions about what will happen on November 6th 2018. That’s why they call them ‘close’ elections. You have to wait and see what the outcome will be.

Tons of Toss Ups All Over The Country

These toss up districts and statewide races are all over the country. There are older and younger people running. Men and Women. There are good democrat and republican candidates and a few libertarians and constitution party folks too. Moreover there are some truly funny characteristics to some of the candidates and situations in these districts.

No ‘Fake Wind’ Here

In conclusion it’s time we had political coverage that doesn’t ‘sell’ conclusions to keep people watching and listening. Coverage that doesn’t try to convince you to vote one way or another. No fake wind.

Finally, guess what every election depends on? Who votes. It’s that simple.

Sponsored by Water Butler Water Purification Systems and John D. Scott Personal Injury Lawyer

Toss Up House Elections 2018-Part 5-Podcast 757

Toss Up House Elections 2018-Part 4-Podcast 756

As I do the last two podcasts in the toss up series at the Bob Davis Podcasts, more predictions of a democrat wave are most notable. Are these predictions true? We’ll find out in Toss Up House Elections 2018-Part 4-Podcast 756.

Shellacking

In addition to commentators AP reported this week that republican pollsters are telling top republicans they’re in for a shellacking in November.

As a mission of the Bob Davis Podcasts I have been looking at those elections deemed ‘toss ups’ by the experts.

Conventional Wisdom Is Right Until Wrong

Especially relevant is the idea behind the mission. No predictions. Non partisan. What is the situation in these key districts in the final weeks of the election. Readers, subscribers and listeners might be surprised to learn very few public polls exist. Conventional wisdom drives most of these predictions. I detail this for each toss up in Toss Up House Elections 2018-Part 4-Podcast 756.

Close Elections Don’t Always Mean Flips

From North Carolina to Texas in Toss Up House Elections 2018-Part 4-Podcast 756. Toss up races are simply close elections for whatever reason. Moreover most US House elections are in solid democrat or republican districts. This year some say there are more than 40 districts that will be close. Why they’re close is key.

Open Seats And Changing Geography

In some cases the district is an open seat because of retirements. In other cases, the contours of the district’s geography have changed. What was once a solid republican or democrat district is now supposedly more ‘balanced’.

Everyone Hates Congress…

Finally the real question in the 2018 midterms is whether people will vote their opinions of the president or local concerns. The old saying goes, everyone hates congress but not their congressman.

One Size Fits All Election?

In conclusion I spent a fair amount of time not only looking through the data for these districts but also watching some of the internet and TV ads for candidates. Sometimes it’s hard to tell the republican from the democrat. This is not a one size fits all election even though the media would have its viewers believe it is.

Once I finish this series in this podcast, and the next, I’ll do one more podcast with my analysis since there isn’t much time for that in these podcasts dealing with individual districts.

Sponsored by John D Scott Personal Injury Lawyer and the Water Butler Water Purification Systems

Toss Up House Elections 2018-Part 4-Podcast 756

 

Toss Up House Elections 2018 Part 2-Bob Davis Podcast 754

Second in a series of podcasts detailing the so called toss up races in the 2018 midterm elections. Most noteworthy here are my observations about whether many of these elections are actually toss ups. Find out why I say this in Toss Up House Elections 2018 Part 2-Bob Davis Podcast 754.

Trump’s Future Hangs In The Balance

From Iowa, to Illinois. Kansas to Kentucky in this podcast you’ll find out why the media says the future of Donald Trump’s administration hangs in the balance. You’ll also find out whether the predicted ‘blue wave’ could be reality. Or not.

Details Without Partisanship

As I have said many times, one of the things our media loves to do these days is predict the future, The reason I am producing this series of podcasts is to give you the existing conditions in each of these districts without partisan comment or predictions. This series includes the Senate toss ups, and the Governor’s toss ups and part one of the house toss ups.

How Close Are They?

How close is the race in Illinois’ northwestern suburbs that make up the 6th district? What about all the predictions about 12th district which stretches from the working class Saint Louis suburbs across the river, all the way to the southern tip of the Land of Lincoln? Especially relevant here are predictions about Kentucky’s 6th district, which the president won by 17 points. When a candidate for president wins a state by over twenty points, is there a potential for backlash? Learn more in Toss Up House Elections 2018 Part 2-Bob Davis Podcast 754.

Telling The Voter What’s Going To Happen Before The Vote

These days it doesn’t matter whether you’re on network television or You Tube. If you have a national talk radio show or are a podcaster. Everyone wants to tell the voter what’s going to happen before it happens. If you listen to this series of my podcasts you’ll know the situation in these districts. You’ll know what races to watch on election night.

What IS The Situation?

Once the voters decides for themselves who their voting for on election night, they can sit back and watch the results knowing what races to look for. Why? Because someone looked at all the key races and without partisanship or rancor laid out what the situation is.

Fortune Tellers

Finally, many of these districts have no polling unless its done by partisan groups or political parties. Predictions are being made based on the 2016 election or because one party or another said they were ‘targeting’ that race. In conclusion our politics are too fluid for political fortune tellers to be accurate.

Sponsored by John D Scott Personal Injury Lawyer and Ryan Plumbing and Heating of Saint Paul

Toss Up House Elections 2018 Part 2-Bob Davis Podcast 754

 

2018 House Toss Up Races-Story Lines-Predictions-Part 2-Podcast 717

Continuing to run down the toss up races in the 2018 midterm elections for the US House. The big story line? A democrat wave will wrest control of the house from the republicans. In 2018 House Toss Up Races-Story Lines-Predictions-Part 2-Podcast 717.

From The Midwest Across To The Atlantic Coast

Kansas and Nebraska. East of the Mississippi to Iowa. Minnesota which has some of the closest House races in the country. Illinois in the northern suburbs, and the Land of Lincoln’s southern tip. Across to New York, Georgia, New Hampshire and more.

All About Political Junkies

The second of two parts of a mega podcasting effort for political junkies and subscribers who just want someone to objectively run down all the races in one spot. We’ll challenge some of the myths and tell you why some pundits say this year is a game changer. In 2018 House Toss Up Races-Story Lines-Predictions-Part 2-Podcast 717.

These days the biggest problem with the media is its penchant for trying to predict the future. Americans are ill served because of this problem. Expectations become truth. Final outcomes turn out to be much harder to predict. Democrats learned this the hard way in 2016’s presidential race.

Republicans Defending The Most Toss Up Seats

Especially relevant is the fact that as a political agnostic, I’m not afraid to tell you there is almost no polling to speak of, despite all the efforts to predict the outcome of 435 House Races. To be sure, the republicans are defending most of the toss up seats.

Why Democrats Believe This Will Be A Wave

Moreover after spending two days poring over election data and reading about local issues and personalties, I can tell you why democrats believe this will be a ‘wave’ election. Do their hopes have any basis in reality? Well. Listen and find out. In 2018 House Toss Up Races-Story Lines-Predictions-Part 2-Podcast 717.

With the Midterms 7 months away, anything can happen. Moreover primaries in some races will determine the tactical situation in many of the House districts in question. Both parties are furiously trying to raise enough money to compete. Will they be able to commit the resources they’re famous for in the special elections that grabbed all the headlines lately?

All Politics Is Local

That’s the old saying. What are the local issues, personalties and unique characteristics of places we don’t think very much about unless its our home? How many of those out of the way places may have an election that determines the future of our country? Check out 2018 House Toss Up Races-Story Lines-Predictions-Part 2-Podcast 717 and let’s talk. For the same kind of analysis on the US Senate Toss Up races, go here.

Sponsored by Reliafund Payment Processors and Ryan Plumbing and Heating of Saint Paul

2018 House Toss Up Races-Story Lines-Predictions-Part 2-Podcast 717

2018 House Toss Up Races-Story Lines-Predictions-Part 1-Podcast 716

Will republicans maintain control of the US House Of Representatives in 2018’s Mid Term election? Or are those predicting a Democratic Wave right? Find out in 2018 House Toss Up Races-Story Lines-Predictions-Part 1-Podcast 716. For part one click here.

Media Creates Confusion

These days the media is obsessed with predicting the future. Moreover they’re so busy telling the future viewers are left confused about where the close races are and why they are considered close.

West Coast To The Mississippi

In two epic political podcasts, I lay out the battle ground for the most vulnerable house races in 2018. Part 1 covers the west coast to the Mississippi. Part 2 (Podcast 717) covers districts east of the Mississippi to the Atlantic. Political Junkies these two are for you. If you want the same thing on the US Senate Toss Up Races, check out Podcast 712.

Skipping The Story Line

In 2018 House Toss Up Races-Story Lines-Predictions-Part 1-Podcast 716 it is most noteworthy that I don’t buy into a story line. On one side it’s a blue wave. On the other all is well. It is far from clear what the result of this election will be. That doesn’t stop the shills bought and paid for from telling you what’s going to happen before you’ve even had a chance to consider it.

Primaries Play A Role

Election Day is Tuesday November 6th, 2018. Many districts have primaries in May, June and August. The results of these primaries will determine the tactical situation in key districts. A sober look at these races goes a long way to clarifying the situation for listeners and viewers.

An Ocean Of Time

Moreover, there’s an ocean of time between May 2018 and Election Day. Will local or national and international events have the most impact in the tight races? How many seats are republicans defending? What about local personalities? Most of the time, all the information isn’t in one place where it can serve as a baseline for future discussions.

No One Can Consistently Predict Elections

Bottom line? No one can predict elections. We learned that in 2016. What’s more, House elections are even more difficult to predict. 435 members up for election. The Democrats have 193 seats, the republicans 237. Both parties 200 or so seats solidly democrat or republican. That leaves about 30 races which can be considered toss ups. This is where we focus.

Devil’s In The Details

As the old saying goes, the Devil’s In The Details. Did Trump beat Clinton in your district? How did your congressman do? What are the local issues? If it’s an open seat is your district Republican, Democrat or somewhere in between? From California’s 10th to New Hampshire’s 1st, From Oregon to Georgia.

Sponsored by Ryan Plumbing and Heating of Saint Paul and Sal Di Leo Inspirational Speaker

2018 House Toss Up Races-Story Lines-Predictions-Part 1-Podcast 716