Toss Up House Elections 2018-Part 4-Podcast 756

As I do the last two podcasts in the toss up series at the Bob Davis Podcasts, more predictions of a democrat wave are most notable. Are these predictions true? We’ll find out in Toss Up House Elections 2018-Part 4-Podcast 756.

Shellacking

In addition to commentators AP reported this week that republican pollsters are telling top republicans they’re in for a shellacking in November.

As a mission of the Bob Davis Podcasts I have been looking at those elections deemed ‘toss ups’ by the experts.

Conventional Wisdom Is Right Until Wrong

Especially relevant is the idea behind the mission. No predictions. Non partisan. What is the situation in these key districts in the final weeks of the election. Readers, subscribers and listeners might be surprised to learn very few public polls exist. Conventional wisdom drives most of these predictions. I detail this for each toss up in Toss Up House Elections 2018-Part 4-Podcast 756.

Close Elections Don’t Always Mean Flips

From North Carolina to Texas in Toss Up House Elections 2018-Part 4-Podcast 756. Toss up races are simply close elections for whatever reason. Moreover most US House elections are in solid democrat or republican districts. This year some say there are more than 40 districts that will be close. Why they’re close is key.

Open Seats And Changing Geography

In some cases the district is an open seat because of retirements. In other cases, the contours of the district’s geography have changed. What was once a solid republican or democrat district is now supposedly more ‘balanced’.

Everyone Hates Congress…

Finally the real question in the 2018 midterms is whether people will vote their opinions of the president or local concerns. The old saying goes, everyone hates congress but not their congressman.

One Size Fits All Election?

In conclusion I spent a fair amount of time not only looking through the data for these districts but also watching some of the internet and TV ads for candidates. Sometimes it’s hard to tell the republican from the democrat. This is not a one size fits all election even though the media would have its viewers believe it is.

Once I finish this series in this podcast, and the next, I’ll do one more podcast with my analysis since there isn’t much time for that in these podcasts dealing with individual districts.

Sponsored by John D Scott Personal Injury Lawyer and the Water Butler Water Purification Systems

Toss Up House Elections 2018-Part 4-Podcast 756

 

Podcast 391 – Walker’s Announcement

Walker’s Announcement. The Bob Davis Podcasts first official campaign 2016 coverage, and now from here it’s on to Davenport, Iowa, where the Walker campaign starts an RV trip through the state. Why Scott Walker? Because it is a neighboring state, and its close. Why Davenport? Same reason. This was the first time covering a presidential announcement for someone who is considered a ‘front runner’, in the Republican Party, if such a thing exists, given the score or so politicians running on the Republican side. This was a campaign announcement loaded with red meat for standard republicans, but the three thousand or so supporters in Waukesha — a strong Republican suburb of Milwaukee — loved every minute of it, from the Lieutenant Governor, to Congressman Sean Duffy’s wife, Rachel Campos Duffy, who threw barb after barb at Hillary Clinton. It’s way more fun to be inside the story than to watch it on TV. You’ll hear the whole gamut in this podcast, from the handful of protesters with bags over their head because they are ‘ashamed’ of Walker, the media trucks, local and national media segregation, and how hot it was in there, to the Mobile Podcast Command Unit 8’s Diesel idling for eight hours while its owner connived to get press passes. While the left loves to hate the Wisconsin Governor, both Republicans and Democrats would do well to take him seriously. As his campaign likes to point out, he has beaten what he calls ‘big government special interests’ three times in the last five years, after they have thrown everything they had at him. He might just be the wild card in this republican primary season. Then again … The most fun? Watching a major CBS reporter melt down with the guys in New York, while the First Lady of Wisconsin was introducing her husband. “I don’t care, I’ve got to have that cut!”, he shouted at one point, provoking laughter from the folks in the back row. Reporting live from these events is kick ass. More to come … from Davenport, Iowa. Sponsored by Ryan Plumbing and Heating of Saint Paul.

Podcast 359

Spring Dusk. Live from the deck of the Broadcast Bunker on a spring evening. Finally warm enough to eat outside, and podcast from the deck with great coffee and an origami fire in the grill, post steak. A review of a live speaking engagement at SD48’s Freedom Banquet starts and is interrupted because of technology problems. Is technology purchased just four years ago becoming obsolete? After a discussion about methods of public speaking, details about the Freedom Banquet discussion. How the media covers a ‘presidential’ race is too personality driven. What are the announced and unannounced candidates doing right now? What’s their goal. It isn’t the ‘electorate’ per se, but the actives and the major donors. Meanwhile, the public remains starved for coverage about details on issues. The most divisive force in American Politics today isn’t congress — though we are told constantly ‘gridlock’ is a divisive force — it’s media. Specifically, media tailored to a point of view, or ‘tribe’. With people using media tailored to their specific social tribe, we’re not getting the full story, and most of the time we’re getting ‘news’ focused on someone’s personality, what this one said or didn’t say, or the latest scandal. And, with candidates focused on the politically active, this is the time to start the process of organizing at the precinct level. Instead, people are talking about hot button, media driven ‘issues’ like the riot in Baltimore, or Ted Cruz’s statement about liberal fascism and Christians. Part of the mission of the podcasts is to break some of that emotion down with updates on issues. There is a need for people to connect as citizens, and learn to talk to each other without their party and social labels superimposed on their foreheads. Can we do it? Not while Fox News or MSNBC is blaring away in the background. Sponsored by Ryan Plumbing and Heating of Saint Paul.