Toss Up House Elections 2018-Part 4-Podcast 756

As I do the last two podcasts in the toss up series at the Bob Davis Podcasts, more predictions of a democrat wave are most notable. Are these predictions true? We’ll find out in Toss Up House Elections 2018-Part 4-Podcast 756.

Shellacking

In addition to commentators AP reported this week that republican pollsters are telling top republicans they’re in for a shellacking in November.

As a mission of the Bob Davis Podcasts I have been looking at those elections deemed ‘toss ups’ by the experts.

Conventional Wisdom Is Right Until Wrong

Especially relevant is the idea behind the mission. No predictions. Non partisan. What is the situation in these key districts in the final weeks of the election. Readers, subscribers and listeners might be surprised to learn very few public polls exist. Conventional wisdom drives most of these predictions. I detail this for each toss up in Toss Up House Elections 2018-Part 4-Podcast 756.

Close Elections Don’t Always Mean Flips

From North Carolina to Texas in Toss Up House Elections 2018-Part 4-Podcast 756. Toss up races are simply close elections for whatever reason. Moreover most US House elections are in solid democrat or republican districts. This year some say there are more than 40 districts that will be close. Why they’re close is key.

Open Seats And Changing Geography

In some cases the district is an open seat because of retirements. In other cases, the contours of the district’s geography have changed. What was once a solid republican or democrat district is now supposedly more ‘balanced’.

Everyone Hates Congress…

Finally the real question in the 2018 midterms is whether people will vote their opinions of the president or local concerns. The old saying goes, everyone hates congress but not their congressman.

One Size Fits All Election?

In conclusion I spent a fair amount of time not only looking through the data for these districts but also watching some of the internet and TV ads for candidates. Sometimes it’s hard to tell the republican from the democrat. This is not a one size fits all election even though the media would have its viewers believe it is.

Once I finish this series in this podcast, and the next, I’ll do one more podcast with my analysis since there isn’t much time for that in these podcasts dealing with individual districts.

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Toss Up House Elections 2018-Part 4-Podcast 756

 

Unbounded Optimism-Exuberance-Technology Revolution-Age Of Trump-Podcast 707

The economy is booming. Everything is getting better. Talk to a Trump supporter these days and that’s what you’ll hear. We’ll discuss it in Unbounded Optimism-Exuberance-Technology Revolution-Age Of Trump-Podcast 707.

The Economy Is Booming

A few weeks ago the Atlanta Federal Reserve, known for its bullish predictions, announced first quarter 2018 economic growth might be as high as 5.4 percent. It sure seemed to make sense, to hear main street tell it. Wall Street seemed to agree. In Unbounded Optimism-Exuberance-Technology Revolution-Age Of Trump-Podcast 707.

Wait! What? But You Said The Economy Was Booming!

This week the same Atlanta Fed announced a revision of its earlier prediction, suggesting economic growth for the United States might only be 1.3 percent. Less than the 2+ percent growth in the fourth quarter of last year, which was hardly booming.

We Have To Make Stuff, right?

We’ve been hearing it for awhile. America doesn’t make stuff anymore. Trump’s gonna fix it. Trade protection for the struggling manufacturers. Help for the broad shoulders of America’s industrial past. Trump’s gonna show ’em all. Find out if this is true in Unbounded Optimism-Exuberance-Technology Revolution-Age Of Trump-Podcast 707.

Where Is The Greatest Generation When You Need Them Say The Baby Boomers

Whether it’s your local Tea Party guy or President Clinton’s former labor Secretary Robert Reich, the chant is the same. We don’t make stuff anymore. Sudden authorities on the subject of character point to World War II heroes and 1930’s social welfare warriors as paragons of virtue. The past sure seems sweet to the baby boomers these days.

Suddenly the 1950’s are back.

Forget Big Oil and Banking Go After The Tech Guys

Especially relevant are the Steel and Oil barons. They used to be the villains. Now it’s the tech guys. Republicans used to be against regulation right? Suddenly the republicans and democrats want to regulate social media and search engine tycoons, because ‘something’s got to be done’. Listen to Unbounded Optimism-Exuberance-Technology Revolution-Age Of Trump-Podcast 707.

Smells Like Reagan But…

Administration officials talk trade protection and a weak dollar. So called conservatives add trillions of dollars in debt to pay for tax cuts. There’s talk about increasing taxes on gas and diesel and spending hundreds of billions more on building bridges and roads. There’s talk of US involvement in war in Syria and on the Korean peninsula. These are republicans?

Does that sound like the Reagan Revolution to you?

Everywhere an unseen revolution in technology is eroding and wiping away institutions, including government. The right and the left have lost their way. Big change is upon us. We’re going to have to figure out what comes next because our leaders never will

Are we?

In conclusion we can’t go back to the 1950‘s. However, we can’t seem to move forward. What’s our role in creating the future. What are the most important values in a world where human beings may live hundreds of years longer, robots will farm and manufacture, money will be on your hand held device, cars and trucks will drive themselves, drones will deliver and your robot girlfriend may be a lot smarter than you!

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Unbounded Optimism-Exuberance-Technology Revolution-Age Of Trump-Podcast 707

Death Of The Political Junkie Rest in Peace-Podcast 645

Are you a political junkie? Wake up in the middle of the night to check headlines? Scan social media in the bathroom? Watch the 24 hour cable news channels? Listen to talk radio on the weekend? Inbox full of political emails? We’ll talk about it in Death Of The Political Junkie Rest in Peace-Podcast 645.

Relevance

TV Stars and channels just want to keep their brands and their personalities foremost in your mind. Same with politicians. This is what people in the media call ‘Being Relevant’.

Inside Baseball

The problem is, the twenty four hour political chatter is less relevant every day. Those addicted to what we call politics these days are driving a conversation about tweets, traded insults, and stunts by people who seem more and more unhinged as each minute passes. In Death Of The Political Junkie Rest in Peace-Podcast 645.

Lies Conceal Truth

Politics and those who cover it are talking about each other more than they actually report on the news. The result? The actual political community continues to do whatever it wants, whenever it wants.

Mika Joe and Donald

Even though we have all kinds of ‘news’ coverage, it seems like the function of our government is a mystery to most people. Relating new things to the audience becomes more and more difficult in a sea of nonsense. Television presenters who poke at public figures getting a taste of their own medicine is news? Featured in Death Of The Political Junkie Rest in Peace-Podcast 645.

Meanwhile We’re Bankrupt

Puerto Rico is bankrupt. Illinois, California and New York are next. Debt is at record levels. Both political parties promise more and more. Someone, somewhere, someday will have to pay for it.

People vote for personalities. When their ‘guy’ takes office, it is expected he or she will do what ‘the voters’ want. That is not what happens. Why? Political Junkies these days know it all. They can tell you why Trump is a sociopath or why Loretta Lynch should be in federal prison but they can’t tell you what a republican stands for or what a democrat is. Maybe it’s time to watch less and do more.

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Death Of The Political Junkie Rest in Peace-Podcast 645