Podcast 541

Podcast 541. Electoral College Yoga. Get ready to twist your brain into pretzel like shapes as I talk about the electoral college, polls, and what the benchmarks for Election 2016 are so far. I’ll do another benchmark in about a month and one just before the election in late October, or early November. There are a lot of caveats on polling data. While most media people and their viewers seem to want to talk about national presidential preference polls, the proof of the pudding is in the state by state polls. The United States does not elect its presidents with a national vote. In fact, a presidential election is fifty state elections. Voters are selecting a slate of electors, chosen and voting generally according to state law and state party rules. So when you hear one candidate is ‘ahead’ over another in a national poll it really doesn’t mean anything. In 2008 and again in 2012 Republicans in particular were so hopeful based on national preference polls that if you said McCain or Mitt Romney wasn’t going to win, you were ‘raining on the parade’. But, if you looked closely at state polls in those election cycles, the outcome was not a surprise. State polls have their own problems; Smaller sample size, different polling methodologies, and in some states they are no polls until just before the election. While its not advisable to compare different polls of different sources and methodologies, we do it all the time. We’re looking for trends primarily. Currently while Donald J. Trump leads Hillary Clinton in a national presidential preference poll, the state polls tell a completely different story. It’s not a good story for republicans. The case isn’t closed. Trump still has time, but time is fleeting. I don’t support any candidate. I’m not working for any candidate. I’m not going to tell you how to vote. I’m also not going to spin the polling data to make you think something can happen, or is going to happen. If you want the straight talk on what’s going on, the Bob Davis Podcasts is the place to check back for these benchmark state-by-state analyses as we progress to Election Day 2016. Sponsored by Karow Contracting and Ryan Plumbing and Heating of Saint Paul.

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Podcast 458

Not George Washington. With the Iowa Caucuses less than a week away, political prognosticators have finally gone off the rails. This week’s poster child for idiocy goes to the talk show host who claims Texas Senator Ted Cruz is ‘The New George Washington’. How is the ‘endorsement’ of candidates from personalities, talk show hosts and commentators different from endorsements that come from governors, senators and candidates who are exiting the race? How has the endorsing of candidates by talk show hosts hurt talk radio? Ted Cruz is Not George Washington, but that fact doesn’t stop charlatans from saying so. Why do they do it? It’s a desperate quest for something called ‘relevance’, which is yet another example of the talk radio cesspool. This podcast has been steadfast in not supporting any candidate for president in 2016. The penchant commentators have this year, to influence voters to support candidates based only on polling data, is shameful. Moreover, participation in primaries and caucuses is very low. The result of primaries and caucuses this spring and summer have more to do with the nominating conventions for both mainline parties than the general election. Despite this fact, talk radio and the media are already making predictions and issuing endorsements for the presidency? The victors in the first few primaries or caucuses, at least on the republican side, are usually not the nominee. The only reasonable conclusion is that commentators are manipulating their listeners and voters for their own gain; a sad feature of a presidential cycle already off the rails. You can imagine how the real election will be reported. This podcaster is not going to endorse anyone for president, since all of them are more like Nucky Thompson than anything approaching George Washington. Sponsored by Pride of Homes and Luke Team Real Estate and Hydrus.

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Podcast 421

Ignore The Polls. We are awash in polling data early in the 2016 election cycle, enabling politics to be covered like sports. In sports though, teams actually play the games, generating the scores and statistics. Champions emerge during and at the end of the season based on real results. The media, political pollsters and charlatans are deciding what candidates we’ll listen to, and perhaps vote for based on political opinion surveys called ‘polls’, not to be confused with voting. When people actually vote, or caucus, then it will generate actual data. In the meantime, why don’t they consult astrologers and tarot card readers, because it would be just as reliable and accurate as political opinion surveys. Conversations over the weekend convinced me to do another polling podcast, to explain what it is, what its limitations are, and why you are better off reading a book or raking leaves, than watching the soothsayers on Fox News. No, the poll that shows Trump in the lead does not mean a ‘plurality’ of ‘voters’ want Trump. Yes he could win a general election, so could Hillary Clinton, or any other potential candidate if conditions are right. One thing is for sure; Once people actually vote and caucus there will be surprises. There will be surprises through the primary season, conventions, until the actual election on November 8th, 2016. Or not. The travesty is that we allow television networks, pollsters, and the cartoonery of pundits and loud mouths to decide for us who debates, who wins, and who polls. The result is someone — maybe the exact wrong person — ends up in charge of the most expensive and dangerous government in the world. Are you alright with Fox, CNN, and MSNBC in concert with three or four pollsters, deciding the candidates for that job? Sponsored by Pride of Homes and Luke Team Real Estate and Ryan Plumbing and Heating of Saint Paul. 

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