Mistakes-Final Polls-Bob Davis Podcast 961

Dumb Mistakes

Most important thing to do to avoid dumb mistakes? Be present. Learn more in Mistakes-Final Polls-Bob Davis Podcast 961.

Final Poll Rundown

Secondly I had to stop and run down the final polls before this fiasco ends. Or not.

Nomad Mindset Engaged

Certainly I have a lot going on in my mind. Even more when traveling. Double it if you’re a nomad.

Easy To Make Dumb Mistakes

As a result there is always a point where it’s easy for me to make a dumb mistake.

Early In The Trip

Above all these mistakes happen early in the trip or when I am preoccupied.

The Green Pump

Firstly this particular mistake has to do with the green pump for diesel as opposed to gasoline. I’ll tell you more in Mistakes-Final Polls-Bob Davis Podcast 961.

Final State By State Polls

In addition after a major delay to address my mistake I have to do a final poll run down before the election on November 3rd.

Getting Extra In This Podcast

Consequently this podcast is a little extra. Longer. Some observations about life on the road and mistakes and a run down of the polls.

Pollsters and the Reporters Who Love Them

In the same vein you know how I feel about polling and media coverage this year. If you don’t click here.

Dangerous Predictions

Certainly people are taking liberties and making predictions polling should not be used for.

It’s All Been Worked Out

As a result many people are under the impression this has all been worked out.

Nothing Has Been Worked Out

In fact nothing has been worked out.

Pick A Direction

Finally you’ll learn in Dumb-Mistakes-Final Polls-Bob Davis Podcast 961 that Election 2020 can really go any number of directions.

Up Late

To sum up if you do watch election coverage on November 3rd you might be up late.

My Election Coverage Ends Where It Started

In conclusion it all started for me in 2020 in Iowa covering the caucus campaigns.

Fairfield Iowa

Therefore I will end my coverage of this insane election in Fairfield Iowa.

More in the next podcast

Sponsored by Kim Nybo State Farm Insurance

Mistakes-Final Polls-Bob Davis Podcast 961

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Landslide-Mania-Updating-Polls-Bob Davis Podcast 936

Mania For Biden Landslide

Above all as you know political polls don’t have a set schedule for release. With all the mania for a Biden Landslide lately plus the release of new polls it is time again to update my most recent podcast on polls in battleground states. We do it in Landslide-Mania-Updating-Polls-Bob Davis Podcast 936.

Updates When Conditions Change

Firstly when you do a podcast based on current events you have to be prepared for updates when conditions change.

New Polls

Second a new spate of new polls of key states was released recently and they’re not good for the president.

Biden Leading In Some Battlegrounds

I think most importantly for the President, Joe Biden is taking the lead.

Parsing Key Polls

Therefore I will go through the key polls in the key states.

Arizona, Texas, North Carolina and Florida

Especially relevant is how the ground might be changing in Arizona, North Carolina, Texas and especially Florida.

Never Predict Outcomes

Certainly my approach is not to attach myself to outcomes or process. In the same vein it really bothers me to see commentators predicting certain outcomes.

Four Months Is A Long Time

In addition these polls show movement over time. Further we don’t know what might happen to benefit either candidate in the next four months. Think of how many things changed since the pandemic began just a short while ago.

Trump Running Uphill

But it is fair to say these polls strongly suggest President Trump is facing uphill battles in key electoral states.

Stringing Together Lights In The Dark

Finally I don’t like doing two of these kinds of podcasts in a row. However it is necessary to drive home the point the political landscape as measured by modern polling is a moving target. That is the whole point of Podcast 935, and Landslide-Mania-Updating-Polls-Bob Davis Podcast 936.

Landslide or Nail Biter. Take Your Pick

In conclusion I think predictions of a landslide for Biden are irresponsible.

Potentially False Hope For Democrats and Pollsters

Not only do they give potentially false hope for democrats. Likewise they create the impression the polls are infallible predictors.

We all know how that ended in 2016.

And of course if the ground shifts, I’ll call it as I see it.

Sponsored by AuntieBRentals and The Realty One Group

Landslide-Mania-Updating-Polls-Bob Davis Podcast 936

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Art-Of-Politics-Polling-Prediction-Bob Davis Podcast 935

Updating Current Political Polls

Firstly Art-Of-Politics-Polling-Prediction-Bob Davis Podcast 935 is part of a series of podcasts updating current polls for 2020.

No Blanket Statements

Secondly I tend to avoid blanket statements when it comes to political polls.

Politics is An Art

Finally I believe despite all the technology we have politics is still an art.

No Silver Bullet For Predictions

Even more there is no application or spreadsheet that can ‘predict’ an outcome based on polls.

Probabilities

In short we can only look at probabilities.

Snapshots

Polls are snapshots in real time.

Shocking Confusion When It Comes To Polls

Meanwhile pundits and commentators continue to display a shocking confusion when it comes to understanding political polling.

Out and Out Bias

Most importantly some are ‘in the tank’ for one or the other candidate.

National Polls A Disservice To Supporters of Both Candidates

Consequently all of this political chatter and predictions does a disservice to supporters of all candidates.

Your Own Reality Check

On the other hand what if I can show you how to do your own reality check on your smart phone whenever you hear some wild prediction of a ‘landslide’ for either candidate.

That’s what Art-Of-Politics-Polling-Prediction-Bob Davis Podcast 935 is all about.

Still All About Showing Up

In conclusion if we have learned anything over the years, it is politics still belongs to those who show up.

State By State Battleground

Working hard down to the election is always the best approach. National polls are useless as the popular vote does not determine the presidency in the US.

Stay With The Bob Davis Podcasts

To sum up stay with me for a clear eyed view of the state by state polling results so that you’re not shocked and surprised on election night. Anything is possible, but right now it’s still a close race.

(Editor’s Note: As I recorded this podcast new polls were being released and results uploaded. As of the date of this post, the new polls have not changed my conclusion that 2020 will be close based on tight races in battleground states. I’ll do another podcast after the next spate of polls and we’ll see how things change. The good news is, if you listen to this podcast you’ll know how to update yourself when new polls come out.)

Sponsored by Virtus Law Strategic Business Specialists

Art-Of-Politics-Polling-Prediction-Bob Davis Podcast 935

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