Podcast 247

Republicans Win! Election 2014 coverage. The final installment from Election Control deep inside the Broadcast Bunker. A minute by minute account of the election results on November 4th 2014. Starting out the podcast skeptical of big Republican wins and finally witnessing an historic ‘wave’ election. The GOP won 8-9 seats in the US Senate taking control of the upper house, more than 12 seats in the House, and 31 gubernatorial contests; The Governor’s races alone are headlines. Wisconsin’s Governor Walker won a tough race leading a number of significant Republican holds, with Governor’s mansion pick ups in 3 traditionally Democrat states; Illinois, Maryland and Massachusetts. In Minnesota the news isn’t so good. While the Republicans won back control of the State House of Representatives, they lost big statewide races including Governor and the US Senate. Stewart Mills, the Republican favored to win in the 8th District lost his bid to unseat Congressman Nolan. (Editor’s Note: The big issue for me was whether predictions of Republicans winning 6 or more seats in the US Senate would come true. I did not feel the polls warranted that prediction, as close races in Kansas, North Carolina and Colorado could have gone either way, but in fact, the polls were pretty close this time. I said a Republican wave was certainly possible. I would rather be surprised, than be disappointed, so I was a little surprised, and you can hear it happen as the podcast progresses through the evening. All predictions, correct and incorrect aside, this is why we have elections; so we can see what happens.) With historic wins by the Republicans in the midyear, the question now is whether President Obama will seek to conciliate and compromise with the new congress, with a much stronger Republican majority than the 113th Congress. What tack will the Republican Senate take with the President on Immigration, Obamacare, Judges, Foreign Policy as well as House investigations on a variety of subjects? Will a Republican Senate seek compromise with the President. If it does, will this endanger a Republican victory in 2016? How will democrats across the country react to this huge victory by Republicans? Is the victory based on low turnout by Democrats, or high turnout by Republicans? Were these votes a repudiation of President Obama, or based on local issues? To be fair, Republican wins are so broad based — Governor’s, House and Senate — its hard not to see it as a statement of disapproval of the President’s policies and leadership by voters. Will President Obama dig in his heels and fight a move to the center? Only time will tell. Sponsored by Baklund R&D. 

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Podcast 246

Final Polls Before Election. Election 2014 Coverage. As this podcast is posted, it is the early hours of Election Day 2014 in the United States. One third of the US Senate, all of the House of Representatives, scores of Governors and State Representatives and Senators across the country, are waiting to see what an unpredictable electorate will decide. These races are very important to the lives of the people in these individual states, and to the people of the country as a whole. Politics is not Sports, but it is being covered as though it is. Politicians are presented as players. Speech writers, campaign managers, party officials and insiders as coaches, former politicians and pundits become willing participants in what is being described as the ‘pageant’ of American politics. Viewers and listeners become invested in which ‘team’ wins or loses, and so emotionally identify with a ‘side’, as though that reflects the true nature of politics. The relationship between voters and their representatives is complex and runs deep. Since cable television news channels decided to give up reporting the news, and copied talk radio’s format, television now pushes people to the right or left paradigm in order to keep them watching. Although political polling was a factor in election coverage before 2010, controversy over Obama Care spurred the Tea Party Movement, and carried Republicans to a majority in the House of Representatives. In 2012 the polls indicated a slight advantage for Republican candidate Mitt Romney, and the Republican establishment felt it was entitled to the presidency. Only a few people said the polls were too close (Editor’s Note: I was one of them), but they were ignored in the headlong confirmation between Republicans that they would ‘win’. Moral of the story? Polls can be wrong. Really wrong. And here we are again, in November of 2014, with the election ‘moneyballers’ applying sports statistical analysis to something as widely variable and unreliable as political polling, and not just political polling but, polling in individual states. Added to this, media executives, producers, program directors and editors pushing their writers, broadcasters and guests to conclude, predict and provoke the audience, just as long as they watch another twenty four hours. And then there is the relentless onrush of negative mailers, attack ads, flaps and gaffes that go viral through social media and become ‘news stories. In this podcast, we’ll run down the polls one more time and make no predictions. At the end of this special edition election update from The Bob Davis Podcasts you’ll know how the polls stand in the so called ‘battleground’ states, and you’ll be able to come to your own conclusions about whether the predictions are outlandish or not. Sponsored by Ryan Plumbing and Heating of Saint Paul, and by Depotstar. 

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Podcast 245

Election Eve. The first of two podcast over the next 24 hours to get you up to speed on the spin, sandbagging and screeching in the final hours of the 2014 election cycle. Podcast 246 will take an in depth look at the polls and will be ready for Tuesday morning. Podcast 245 is in a little more relaxed setting, and calls attention to some of the things people are writing and saying the polls say, which have no basis. Meanwhile, the next two days are the most difficult for the punditry and the media as campaigns wind down, few new polls are released, and we wait for the votes to be counted. Some people are already sick of the election coverage, especially if you have been watching the news channels (mainly because the incessant political advertising is driving people over the edge), yet others are just starting to pay attention. Most of the polls at this late hour are all within their statistical margin of error, and therefore not conclusive about which candidates and parties have the edge or momentum. While there are one or two notable exceptions, the networks and pundits drive ahead with story lines and claims that the Republicans will take the Senate. While the GOP will gain Senate seats, whether they gain a majority is an open question. Stories this weekend about the Democrats predicting big wins for the Republicans, may actually be an effort to galvanize Democrat supporters to vote, especially when they come from The New York Times, and the Washington Post. In Minnesota, where the races are tightening to within less than ten points in the Gubernatorial Race (and more ominously a tie in the Northeastern part of the state, which is very unusual), and ten points in the Senate race, the Star Tribune runs a story about Senator Franken’s Net Neutrality cause, with little mention of opponent Mike McFadden, on a day in which the two candidates debated. The truth? This may turn out to be one of the most unusual, and therefore historic races in US Political history. The reason? Almost no one can predict what restive voters will actually end up doing. Election returns and final results may be delayed well into the night, and until January 6th at the latest, if run off elections are called for, or if recounts are demanded in close races. Another interesting development is the sudden appearance of pundits either blaming the President (from right and left) for the democrat problems, or making excuses for him. While the President has raised a lot of money for Democrat candidates, many campaign managers feel it was a mistake for some candidates not to distance themselves from the President, earlier and more loudly. And now the sudden predictions of how the White House will become interested in negotiation and compromise. While that is a possibility, President Obama may dig in his heels, and try to rally progressives for a future Elizabeth Warren presidential run. For all the talk about how the President is surrounded by bumblers, it seems like his obstinance, resistance to debate and diversity of opinion, postponing decisions or making outright mistakes can only be blamed on him. How President Obama deals with a Republican House and a newly Republican Senate (which is by no means guaranteed) will be the biggest political story of 2015. Sponsored by X Government Cars and Depotstar. 

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